Despite minimal instability, a few strong to damaging wind gusts are possible this evening across western PA, eastern OH, and northern WV.

There will be plenty of shear (~35kts) and we’ll see if an approaching cold front can generate enough lift to mix down very strong winds aloft.
#WeatherFrontWx

You don’t have to use a web browser to look at weather models on your phone!

#WFFeatureFriday

Wait for it…💨📉

A strong cold front will sweep through east Asia early next week, bringing gusty winds, cooler temperatures, and accumulating snow at higher elevations across northeast China, North Korea, and Tokyo.

AURORA CLOUD COVER FORECAST

A G4 Geomagnetic Storm Watch is in effect for Wednesday.

The Northern Lights may be visible as far south as Alabama & South Carolina.

Cloud cover forecasts look most favorable across the south central & southeast US, though portions of the Midwest could catch a glimpse

Satellite imagery captured a fresh coat of snow blanketing parts of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio this morning. ❄️

If you look closely, you can watch the snow slowly melt away. 🫠☀️

It’s been a blustery past 36 hours across the northeast US. 💨

Ooooof. 🥶

Sufficient shear and ample moisture return should support organized convection that could grow upscale along the cold front, especially Friday afternoon.

All hazards are possible with this storm system including heavy rainfall, damaging thunderstorm winds, and perhaps a tornado or two.

A potent shortwave trough will swing through northern Argentina, Paraguay, and Southern Brazil Thursday and Friday.

At the surface, a deepening cyclone attached to a strong cold front will encounter 1,500-3,000 J/kg of instability Thursday and Friday, which will help initiate thunderstorms.

Severe weather season is starting to heat up in the Southern Hemisphere. ⛈️

The latest GEFS and ECENS guidance depicts daily chances of thunderstorms this week across South America, with the potential severity ramping up as we approach the weekend.

CONTINUED

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi is headed toward the Philippines. Impacts expected Mon night - Wed morning. 🌀

The storm will intensify to a Typhoon over the South China Sea with impacts possible in Vietnam Thu-Sat. ⚠️

Another storm may develop in the western Pacific by the second half of next weekend. ❓

The hail threat across southeast Texas will increase over the next few hours as storms fire in the vicinity of a front.

A few Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are already in effect. Models disagree about how many strong storms will develop, but the Slight Risk outlines the area of greatest concern.

Fall has arrived along the Gulf Coast! 💨📉

After landfall in Cuba overnight, what’s next for #Melissa?

🌀Maintains Category 2 strength (100+ mph winds) through tonight as she crosses the eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos.
🏎️Swept up by a strong upper trough moving off the US east coast & gains considerable forward speed in the coming days

The northward turn has begun.

Unfortunately, that means Melissa is almost certainly headed for landfall in Jamaica.

Wobbles — technically called trochoidal motion — are guaranteed over the next 18-24 hours. The direction and extent of motion will ultimately dictate exactly where landfall occurs.

The ability to see this level of detail from a cell phone is truly remarkable.

Rapid intensification is indeed underway. 💣📈

Hot towers have erupted near the center of Hurricane #Melissa. ⛈️🌀

Rapid intensification may be underway. 📈📈

Pay close attention to the low levels of this hodograph as boundary layer winds increased in the Dallas-Fort Worth area Friday night.

In the 6 hours leading up to a possible tornado in Fort Worth, 0-1km SRH nearly quadrupled.

HRRR Analysis soundings accessed via the Mesoanalysis Sounding Tool