JAMTAM
@whpaad.bsky.social
models at much less than 1.5C still make the cut now...certainly as far below 1.5C as when such targets were established a decade ago... how can they still be valid and yet 1.5C is by-gone? bsky.app/profile/clim...
Here (1880-1899 baseline should be close enough, I hope?).
December 17, 2025 at 4:35 PM
models at much less than 1.5C still make the cut now...certainly as far below 1.5C as when such targets were established a decade ago... how can they still be valid and yet 1.5C is by-gone? bsky.app/profile/clim...
difficulty in simultaneously matching SW trends, LW trends, and surface temperature doesn't seem to get much attention even though it seems pretty fundamental.
Paleo constraints are interesting due to potential (complicated) dependence of lambda on climate itself www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Paleo constraints are interesting due to potential (complicated) dependence of lambda on climate itself www.nature.com/articles/s41...
The radiative feedback continuum from Snowball Earth to an ice-free hothouse - Nature Communications
Climate model simulations show that Earth’s current climate is near a stability optimum, with warming and substantial cooling both leading to less stable and hence more sensitive climates.
www.nature.com
December 13, 2025 at 10:12 PM
difficulty in simultaneously matching SW trends, LW trends, and surface temperature doesn't seem to get much attention even though it seems pretty fundamental.
Paleo constraints are interesting due to potential (complicated) dependence of lambda on climate itself www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Paleo constraints are interesting due to potential (complicated) dependence of lambda on climate itself www.nature.com/articles/s41...
the social dynamics of climate change impacts are even more uncertain than everything else, especially at the scale of the individual. just paint a giant swath that encompasses pretty much anything you can imagine.
December 13, 2025 at 6:38 PM
the social dynamics of climate change impacts are even more uncertain than everything else, especially at the scale of the individual. just paint a giant swath that encompasses pretty much anything you can imagine.
except for its dependence on earth system state.
December 12, 2025 at 2:31 AM
except for its dependence on earth system state.
how does one link this directly to any cause when forced models do not reproduce the trends and show no consistent direction of change?
December 11, 2025 at 1:59 PM
how does one link this directly to any cause when forced models do not reproduce the trends and show no consistent direction of change?
It’s worse still and far more demoralizing when your special interest doesn’t even register with elected leaders. That's the case for the vast majority of issues.
December 10, 2025 at 8:22 PM
It’s worse still and far more demoralizing when your special interest doesn’t even register with elected leaders. That's the case for the vast majority of issues.
New development is disproportionately happening in hazardous areas, much more than by random chance. That is issue #1 for real risk.
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
eos.org/articles/hom...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
eos.org/articles/hom...
Flood-prone areas are hotspots for urban development
The settlement trend has continued, even as awareness of the risks of climate change has increased.
www.nature.com
December 8, 2025 at 6:09 PM
New development is disproportionately happening in hazardous areas, much more than by random chance. That is issue #1 for real risk.
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
eos.org/articles/hom...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
eos.org/articles/hom...
besides models, what's with the huge delay in releasing updated forcing estimates? simple enough to run them through an emulator.
December 7, 2025 at 6:08 PM
besides models, what's with the huge delay in releasing updated forcing estimates? simple enough to run them through an emulator.
why does ocean sink 90% of excess heat but only 25% of excess CO2?
December 7, 2025 at 4:49 PM
why does ocean sink 90% of excess heat but only 25% of excess CO2?
by these token gestures City councilors can win votes while permitting disproportionate levels of development in hazardous areas.
December 7, 2025 at 4:18 PM
by these token gestures City councilors can win votes while permitting disproportionate levels of development in hazardous areas.
Cut some slack and compartmentalize expertise and political stuff on the socials - it's a requirement as many US scientists are streaming non stop political opinions on a range of subjects rn as if it's fashionable.
December 4, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Cut some slack and compartmentalize expertise and political stuff on the socials - it's a requirement as many US scientists are streaming non stop political opinions on a range of subjects rn as if it's fashionable.
Just stop insuring new structures in floodplains. Done deal.
December 3, 2025 at 7:20 PM
Just stop insuring new structures in floodplains. Done deal.
is this now about the longest period on record without a significant volcanic eruption?
December 3, 2025 at 6:58 PM
is this now about the longest period on record without a significant volcanic eruption?
Are modelers comfortable with national and sub-national scale climate projections, and statements such as "Bias-adjusted climate models which provide a highly accurate reproduction of observed climatological patterns with limited uncertainty
(Supplementary Table 6)..." bsky.app/profile/andr...
(Supplementary Table 6)..." bsky.app/profile/andr...
Amen. Current climate models are not up to the task of predicting country-scale climate change, so the idea that we can build confidence in regional SRM effects using these same models has always seemed ridiculous to me.
My issue with SRM, leaving aside the equity and governance issues (which are IMO insurmountable), is that most (all?) of the research on SRM is based in models which struggle to agree on how even relatively recent volcanic events (our only albeit quite imperfect analog) affect surface climate. 1/2
December 3, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Are modelers comfortable with national and sub-national scale climate projections, and statements such as "Bias-adjusted climate models which provide a highly accurate reproduction of observed climatological patterns with limited uncertainty
(Supplementary Table 6)..." bsky.app/profile/andr...
(Supplementary Table 6)..." bsky.app/profile/andr...
somebody's got to broker the land deals and the circumstances are often more complex outside the city.
November 30, 2025 at 10:39 PM
somebody's got to broker the land deals and the circumstances are often more complex outside the city.
Cumulative land use emissions is about the same as oil and gas combined. Since realtors benefit during land conversion, maybe they should pay. skepticalscience.com/print.php?n=...
November 30, 2025 at 9:09 PM
Cumulative land use emissions is about the same as oil and gas combined. Since realtors benefit during land conversion, maybe they should pay. skepticalscience.com/print.php?n=...
Corrupt landuse planning authorities would love to deflect blame to force majeure to be excused from failing to meet their obligations. Labelling a "climate risk score" causes many people to discount a broader range of risk factors in the analysis of natural hazards and insurance losses.
November 30, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Corrupt landuse planning authorities would love to deflect blame to force majeure to be excused from failing to meet their obligations. Labelling a "climate risk score" causes many people to discount a broader range of risk factors in the analysis of natural hazards and insurance losses.
it is a weird irony that it's the same technofascist experts that got us into this mess that now want to double down on their expert authority as justification for top-down social coercion, and to paint dissenters as irrational, anti-science, or enemies of progress.
November 29, 2025 at 5:23 PM
it is a weird irony that it's the same technofascist experts that got us into this mess that now want to double down on their expert authority as justification for top-down social coercion, and to paint dissenters as irrational, anti-science, or enemies of progress.
When the dot-com bubble burst the internet didn't get crappier, it just eliminated sinking money into scams and junk companies.
November 28, 2025 at 8:54 PM
When the dot-com bubble burst the internet didn't get crappier, it just eliminated sinking money into scams and junk companies.
Hasn’t delivering current, locally relevant tailored climate information to local governments, businesses, and farmers been the core function of state climatologists for a century?
November 24, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Hasn’t delivering current, locally relevant tailored climate information to local governments, businesses, and farmers been the core function of state climatologists for a century?
careful what you wish for when "re-centering expertise" on wicked problems, like climate. sunshine and rainbows narratives on preferred policy options can fall flat.
November 24, 2025 at 8:09 PM
careful what you wish for when "re-centering expertise" on wicked problems, like climate. sunshine and rainbows narratives on preferred policy options can fall flat.
for a baby born today that never leaves their place of birth when can they expect to live in a different climate?
November 23, 2025 at 5:42 PM
for a baby born today that never leaves their place of birth when can they expect to live in a different climate?
if 30 years is a comfy millieu that splits the difference it doesn't seem very magical, but a fairly practical guide for perspective. So what if climate is a slow moving boring (serious) problem, it's just the way it is.
November 23, 2025 at 4:28 PM
if 30 years is a comfy millieu that splits the difference it doesn't seem very magical, but a fairly practical guide for perspective. So what if climate is a slow moving boring (serious) problem, it's just the way it is.
any stalling of demand growth represents massive unnecessary suffering as citizens strive to reach > 1/10 western standards. A/C use having large effect in data hammers home that the country remains 90% underserved.
November 23, 2025 at 1:43 PM
any stalling of demand growth represents massive unnecessary suffering as citizens strive to reach > 1/10 western standards. A/C use having large effect in data hammers home that the country remains 90% underserved.