Vogt WeatherWatcher
@vogtweatherwatcher.bsky.social
A weather service dedicated to the Poconos specializing in school predictions. Supported by an awesome community. Predictions are my own opinion. #InVogtWeTrust
https://vogtweatherwatcher.com
https://vogtweatherwatcher.com
First Prediction for Tuesday, December 2, 2025.
Moderate snow expected during the day on Tuesday is likely to cause the area's first school closings of the season!
Moderate snow expected during the day on Tuesday is likely to cause the area's first school closings of the season!
November 29, 2025 at 10:32 PM
First Prediction for Tuesday, December 2, 2025.
Moderate snow expected during the day on Tuesday is likely to cause the area's first school closings of the season!
Moderate snow expected during the day on Tuesday is likely to cause the area's first school closings of the season!
FINAL Prediction for Wednesday, November 19, 2025.
Given all data, delays are possible for the higher elevated areas due to snowfall timing during the morning bus runs. That said, most areas are going to be above freezing, mitigating snow accumulations.
vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/11/18/2...
Given all data, delays are possible for the higher elevated areas due to snowfall timing during the morning bus runs. That said, most areas are going to be above freezing, mitigating snow accumulations.
vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/11/18/2...
November 19, 2025 at 1:23 AM
FINAL Prediction for Wednesday, November 19, 2025.
Given all data, delays are possible for the higher elevated areas due to snowfall timing during the morning bus runs. That said, most areas are going to be above freezing, mitigating snow accumulations.
vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/11/18/2...
Given all data, delays are possible for the higher elevated areas due to snowfall timing during the morning bus runs. That said, most areas are going to be above freezing, mitigating snow accumulations.
vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/11/18/2...
Winter is here! First flakes for the season are on tap for tomorrow - these will be passing snow showers and should not be an impact to school districts. I hope you are doing well and are excited for the winter season!
November 11, 2025 at 1:45 AM
Winter is here! First flakes for the season are on tap for tomorrow - these will be passing snow showers and should not be an impact to school districts. I hope you are doing well and are excited for the winter season!
No temperature inversion, or if there is one, it would be below the aircraft, which would dampen sound to the ground.
October 17, 2025 at 8:15 PM
No temperature inversion, or if there is one, it would be below the aircraft, which would dampen sound to the ground.
A Flash Flood Warning is in effect until 9 PM this evening. Do not drive through flooded roadways as it is very difficult, if not impossible, to determine water depth. Be safe everyone!
July 14, 2025 at 8:53 PM
A Flash Flood Warning is in effect until 9 PM this evening. Do not drive through flooded roadways as it is very difficult, if not impossible, to determine water depth. Be safe everyone!
⚠️ Tornado Warning issued for East Stroudsburg and Stroudsburg until 4:30 PM. There was video circulating of a funnel cloud near Bangor, PA. Seek shelter immediately, interior bathroom or closet. Monitor weather sources closely and be safe.
May 6, 2025 at 8:02 PM
⚠️ Tornado Warning issued for East Stroudsburg and Stroudsburg until 4:30 PM. There was video circulating of a funnel cloud near Bangor, PA. Seek shelter immediately, interior bathroom or closet. Monitor weather sources closely and be safe.
Apologies for the late post as I was traveling today, but I wanted to mention Winter is going to make one last appearance early tomorrow morning. I am anticipating Regular Days for most districts (85%); however, Delays cannot be ruled out for the higher elevated schools (15%).
April 7, 2025 at 2:44 AM
Apologies for the late post as I was traveling today, but I wanted to mention Winter is going to make one last appearance early tomorrow morning. I am anticipating Regular Days for most districts (85%); however, Delays cannot be ruled out for the higher elevated schools (15%).
FINAL Prediction for Monday, March 24, 2025.
While a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for tomorrow morning, most districts are likely to experience Regular Days. Those that are higher-elevated are fair game for delays.
vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/03/23/f...
While a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for tomorrow morning, most districts are likely to experience Regular Days. Those that are higher-elevated are fair game for delays.
vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/03/23/f...
March 23, 2025 at 6:41 PM
FINAL Prediction for Monday, March 24, 2025.
While a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for tomorrow morning, most districts are likely to experience Regular Days. Those that are higher-elevated are fair game for delays.
vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/03/23/f...
While a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for tomorrow morning, most districts are likely to experience Regular Days. Those that are higher-elevated are fair game for delays.
vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/03/23/f...
Yep! There is a temperature inversion, a rather strong one too. Starting from the bottom, notice how the red line moves towards the left (indicating temperatures declining with altitude increase),but then switches back to the right (indicating rising temperatures with altitude, aka an inversion).
March 20, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Yep! There is a temperature inversion, a rather strong one too. Starting from the bottom, notice how the red line moves towards the left (indicating temperatures declining with altitude increase),but then switches back to the right (indicating rising temperatures with altitude, aka an inversion).
FINAL Prediction for Wednesday, February 19, 2025.
Rinse and repeat but lessons learned - while a Cold Weather Advisory is in effect with similar wind chill values expected, today's reactions are likely to repeat themselves tomorrow.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/18/f...
Rinse and repeat but lessons learned - while a Cold Weather Advisory is in effect with similar wind chill values expected, today's reactions are likely to repeat themselves tomorrow.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/18/f...
February 18, 2025 at 9:41 PM
FINAL Prediction for Wednesday, February 19, 2025.
Rinse and repeat but lessons learned - while a Cold Weather Advisory is in effect with similar wind chill values expected, today's reactions are likely to repeat themselves tomorrow.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/18/f...
Rinse and repeat but lessons learned - while a Cold Weather Advisory is in effect with similar wind chill values expected, today's reactions are likely to repeat themselves tomorrow.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/18/f...
FINAL Prediction for Tuesday, February 18, 2025.
Cold wind chills, combined with isolated black ice and spotty power outages, may be enough to cause school delays.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/17/f...
Cold wind chills, combined with isolated black ice and spotty power outages, may be enough to cause school delays.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/17/f...
February 17, 2025 at 9:25 PM
FINAL Prediction for Tuesday, February 18, 2025.
Cold wind chills, combined with isolated black ice and spotty power outages, may be enough to cause school delays.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/17/f...
Cold wind chills, combined with isolated black ice and spotty power outages, may be enough to cause school delays.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/17/f...
And just went I thought it couldn't get more aggressive.
February 17, 2025 at 3:01 AM
And just went I thought it couldn't get more aggressive.
Well, this is a disturbing outlook for power outages tomorrow from the Premium Site. I hope it doesn’t verify.
Very rare for the site to be this aggressive. @houndlyfe.bsky.social
Very rare for the site to be this aggressive. @houndlyfe.bsky.social
February 17, 2025 at 2:55 AM
Well, this is a disturbing outlook for power outages tomorrow from the Premium Site. I hope it doesn’t verify.
Very rare for the site to be this aggressive. @houndlyfe.bsky.social
Very rare for the site to be this aggressive. @houndlyfe.bsky.social
Nasty icy conditions are anticipated Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.
Details here: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/14/h...
Details here: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/14/h...
February 15, 2025 at 12:18 AM
Nasty icy conditions are anticipated Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.
Details here: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/14/h...
Details here: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/14/h...
FINAL Prediction for Thursday, February 13, 2025.
Icy precipitation is expected from now into tomorrow morning, with some areas getting above freezing much faster and sooner than others. Therefore, a mixed bag of reactions is very well possibly.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/12/f...
Icy precipitation is expected from now into tomorrow morning, with some areas getting above freezing much faster and sooner than others. Therefore, a mixed bag of reactions is very well possibly.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/12/f...
February 13, 2025 at 12:20 AM
FINAL Prediction for Thursday, February 13, 2025.
Icy precipitation is expected from now into tomorrow morning, with some areas getting above freezing much faster and sooner than others. Therefore, a mixed bag of reactions is very well possibly.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/12/f...
Icy precipitation is expected from now into tomorrow morning, with some areas getting above freezing much faster and sooner than others. Therefore, a mixed bag of reactions is very well possibly.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/12/f...
FINAL Prediction for Wednesday February 12 and First Prediction for Thursday February 13, 2025.
Tonight is trending towards a dud, while the Wednesday evening to Thursday morning system is likely to cause impacts to the Thursday morning commute.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/11/f...
Tonight is trending towards a dud, while the Wednesday evening to Thursday morning system is likely to cause impacts to the Thursday morning commute.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/11/f...
February 12, 2025 at 1:18 AM
FINAL Prediction for Wednesday February 12 and First Prediction for Thursday February 13, 2025.
Tonight is trending towards a dud, while the Wednesday evening to Thursday morning system is likely to cause impacts to the Thursday morning commute.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/11/f...
Tonight is trending towards a dud, while the Wednesday evening to Thursday morning system is likely to cause impacts to the Thursday morning commute.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/11/f...
First Prediction for Wednesday, February 12, 2025.
Snow will skirt the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. It's going to be a close call between no impacts at all and school disruptions.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/10/f...
Snow will skirt the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. It's going to be a close call between no impacts at all and school disruptions.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/10/f...
February 11, 2025 at 1:33 AM
First Prediction for Wednesday, February 12, 2025.
Snow will skirt the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. It's going to be a close call between no impacts at all and school disruptions.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/10/f...
Snow will skirt the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. It's going to be a close call between no impacts at all and school disruptions.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/10/f...
Thoughts on This Weekend's Event and Exciting News!
Snow and ice is on the doorstep and new exciting features are underway!
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/08/w...
Snow and ice is on the doorstep and new exciting features are underway!
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/08/w...
February 8, 2025 at 7:39 PM
Thoughts on This Weekend's Event and Exciting News!
Snow and ice is on the doorstep and new exciting features are underway!
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/08/w...
Snow and ice is on the doorstep and new exciting features are underway!
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/08/w...
FINAL Prediction for Friday, February 7, 2025.
Observations and the latest forecast suggest temperatures will not go below freezing tonight as previously expected; therefore, the argument for delays tomorrow has weakened
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/06/f...
Observations and the latest forecast suggest temperatures will not go below freezing tonight as previously expected; therefore, the argument for delays tomorrow has weakened
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/06/f...
February 6, 2025 at 11:55 PM
FINAL Prediction for Friday, February 7, 2025.
Observations and the latest forecast suggest temperatures will not go below freezing tonight as previously expected; therefore, the argument for delays tomorrow has weakened
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/06/f...
Observations and the latest forecast suggest temperatures will not go below freezing tonight as previously expected; therefore, the argument for delays tomorrow has weakened
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/06/f...
How did this pan out?
The blob of closings was accurate.
Pittsburgh: mostly delays, some closings.
Philadelphia closed or went virtual.
S. to C. NJ was a little too high on closing odds.
Long Island had delays.
Maine was a mix between closings and early outs.
Not bad frankly.
The blob of closings was accurate.
Pittsburgh: mostly delays, some closings.
Philadelphia closed or went virtual.
S. to C. NJ was a little too high on closing odds.
Long Island had delays.
Maine was a mix between closings and early outs.
Not bad frankly.
February 6, 2025 at 3:47 PM
How did this pan out?
The blob of closings was accurate.
Pittsburgh: mostly delays, some closings.
Philadelphia closed or went virtual.
S. to C. NJ was a little too high on closing odds.
Long Island had delays.
Maine was a mix between closings and early outs.
Not bad frankly.
The blob of closings was accurate.
Pittsburgh: mostly delays, some closings.
Philadelphia closed or went virtual.
S. to C. NJ was a little too high on closing odds.
Long Island had delays.
Maine was a mix between closings and early outs.
Not bad frankly.
Updated Predictions for Thursday, February 6, and Friday, February 7, 2025.
Icy conditions are expected tomorrow morning, which strongly argues for Closings/Virtual Days. Lingering impacts into Friday creates a situation favorable for Delays.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/05/u...
Icy conditions are expected tomorrow morning, which strongly argues for Closings/Virtual Days. Lingering impacts into Friday creates a situation favorable for Delays.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/05/u...
February 5, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Updated Predictions for Thursday, February 6, and Friday, February 7, 2025.
Icy conditions are expected tomorrow morning, which strongly argues for Closings/Virtual Days. Lingering impacts into Friday creates a situation favorable for Delays.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/05/u...
Icy conditions are expected tomorrow morning, which strongly argues for Closings/Virtual Days. Lingering impacts into Friday creates a situation favorable for Delays.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/05/u...
These graphics can really show how timing plays a critical factor. Notice how most of Maine and Eastern NH are favored to have Early Dismissals versus Closings for the rest of the region - this is because the storm is arriving later for them, allowing for a quick bus turnaround.
February 5, 2025 at 9:38 PM
These graphics can really show how timing plays a critical factor. Notice how most of Maine and Eastern NH are favored to have Early Dismissals versus Closings for the rest of the region - this is because the storm is arriving later for them, allowing for a quick bus turnaround.
I am excited to announce I am working on a program that can generate school predictions at the county level for multiple states! This is a game-changer. I am getting closer to having this run automatically. The next couple of weeks of active weather will be a great test case.
February 5, 2025 at 9:38 PM
I am excited to announce I am working on a program that can generate school predictions at the county level for multiple states! This is a game-changer. I am getting closer to having this run automatically. The next couple of weeks of active weather will be a great test case.
First Predictions for Thu, February 6, and Fri, February 7, 2025.
A winter storm system is expected to generate ice and snow for the region, which is likely to cause disruptions to the morning commute on Thursday and lingering impacts on Friday.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/04/f...
A winter storm system is expected to generate ice and snow for the region, which is likely to cause disruptions to the morning commute on Thursday and lingering impacts on Friday.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/04/f...
February 4, 2025 at 10:48 PM
First Predictions for Thu, February 6, and Fri, February 7, 2025.
A winter storm system is expected to generate ice and snow for the region, which is likely to cause disruptions to the morning commute on Thursday and lingering impacts on Friday.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/04/f...
A winter storm system is expected to generate ice and snow for the region, which is likely to cause disruptions to the morning commute on Thursday and lingering impacts on Friday.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/04/f...
FINAL Prediction for Monday, February 3, 2025.
Passing snow this evening is likely to produce 1 to 2 inches of snowfall until midnight, which has a good chance of causing delays tomorrow morning.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/02/f...
Passing snow this evening is likely to produce 1 to 2 inches of snowfall until midnight, which has a good chance of causing delays tomorrow morning.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/02/f...
February 2, 2025 at 8:31 PM
FINAL Prediction for Monday, February 3, 2025.
Passing snow this evening is likely to produce 1 to 2 inches of snowfall until midnight, which has a good chance of causing delays tomorrow morning.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/02/f...
Passing snow this evening is likely to produce 1 to 2 inches of snowfall until midnight, which has a good chance of causing delays tomorrow morning.
Details: vogtweatherwatcher.com/2025/02/02/f...