Colin Angus
@victimofmaths.bsky.social
Professor of Alcohol Policy in the Sheffield Addictions Research Group (@SARG-SCHARR), graph drawer, data botherer, cake eater, incompetent cyclist and intermittent birder.
Huge credit to Vera Buss for leading this work, and to @melissaoldham.bsky.social, @drsarahejackson.bsky.social, @lionshahab.bsky.social, @jholmessheff.bsky.social and @jamiebrown.bsky.social for their contributions along the way.
November 24, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Huge credit to Vera Buss for leading this work, and to @melissaoldham.bsky.social, @drsarahejackson.bsky.social, @lionshahab.bsky.social, @jholmessheff.bsky.social and @jamiebrown.bsky.social for their contributions along the way.
All of this paints a rather concerning picture - there is some good news that the pandemic-associated increases in risky drinking appear to be rebounding to pre-pandemic levels, but slowly. Worryingly, most slowly in more deprived groups and maybe not at all in the very heaviest drinkers.
November 24, 2025 at 3:38 PM
All of this paints a rather concerning picture - there is some good news that the pandemic-associated increases in risky drinking appear to be rebounding to pre-pandemic levels, but slowly. Worryingly, most slowly in more deprived groups and maybe not at all in the very heaviest drinkers.
More advantaged groups had higher prevalence of risky drinking and mean consumption, but the increase since the start of the pandemic was much greater in less advantaged groups, narrowing the gap between the groups.
Since then, risky drinking seems to be reducing more slowly in more deprived groups
Since then, risky drinking seems to be reducing more slowly in more deprived groups
November 24, 2025 at 3:38 PM
More advantaged groups had higher prevalence of risky drinking and mean consumption, but the increase since the start of the pandemic was much greater in less advantaged groups, narrowing the gap between the groups.
Since then, risky drinking seems to be reducing more slowly in more deprived groups
Since then, risky drinking seems to be reducing more slowly in more deprived groups
We also looked at how these trends in risky drinking and mean consumption differed by gender, age and socieconomic position, with the most striking patterns across socioeconomic groups.
November 24, 2025 at 3:38 PM
We also looked at how these trends in risky drinking and mean consumption differed by gender, age and socieconomic position, with the most striking patterns across socioeconomic groups.
However, the current trend suggests this won't actually happen until 2034 for risky drinking prevalence and 2030 for mean consumption.
More concerningly, after almost doubling from 0.9 to 1.7% of adults, levels of possible dependence did not show clear signs of returning towards 2019 levels at all.
More concerningly, after almost doubling from 0.9 to 1.7% of adults, levels of possible dependence did not show clear signs of returning towards 2019 levels at all.
November 24, 2025 at 3:38 PM
However, the current trend suggests this won't actually happen until 2034 for risky drinking prevalence and 2030 for mean consumption.
More concerningly, after almost doubling from 0.9 to 1.7% of adults, levels of possible dependence did not show clear signs of returning towards 2019 levels at all.
More concerningly, after almost doubling from 0.9 to 1.7% of adults, levels of possible dependence did not show clear signs of returning towards 2019 levels at all.
We replicate the finding from previous studies that all 3 of these outcomes increased at the onset of the pandemic. We then find that the prevalence of risky drinking and mean weekly consumption is slowly returning towards pre-pandemic levels.
November 24, 2025 at 3:38 PM
We replicate the finding from previous studies that all 3 of these outcomes increased at the onset of the pandemic. We then find that the prevalence of risky drinking and mean weekly consumption is slowly returning towards pre-pandemic levels.
Using data from the Alcohol Toolkit Study, a monthly survey of ~1,700 households in England, we looked at trends in: 1) Prevalence of drinking at risky levels (5+ on AUDIT-C), 2) prevalence of drinking at possible dependence levels (11-12 on AUDIT-C) and 3) mean weekly alcohol consumption 2014-24
November 24, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Using data from the Alcohol Toolkit Study, a monthly survey of ~1,700 households in England, we looked at trends in: 1) Prevalence of drinking at risky levels (5+ on AUDIT-C), 2) prevalence of drinking at possible dependence levels (11-12 on AUDIT-C) and 3) mean weekly alcohol consumption 2014-24
This paper is the latest output from our project evaluating the impacts of recent reforms to alcohol taxation and the cost-of-living crisis. You can read more about what we're up to:
sarg-sheffield.ac.uk/projects/ref...
sarg-sheffield.ac.uk/projects/ref...
Reforming alcohol taxes in a cost-of-living crisis - Sheffield Addictions Research Group
Evaluating the impact of reforms to the UK alcohol tax system, increases to alcohol tax rates, and the current cost-of-living crisis on alcohol consumption, associated harms and health inequalities.
sarg-sheffield.ac.uk
November 21, 2025 at 9:43 AM
This paper is the latest output from our project evaluating the impacts of recent reforms to alcohol taxation and the cost-of-living crisis. You can read more about what we're up to:
sarg-sheffield.ac.uk/projects/ref...
sarg-sheffield.ac.uk/projects/ref...
...but it remains unclear to what extent, if any, cost pressures are actually leading to risky drinkers cutting down successfully.
November 21, 2025 at 9:43 AM
...but it remains unclear to what extent, if any, cost pressures are actually leading to risky drinkers cutting down successfully.
These findings present a bit of a mixed picture - it's clear that alcohol support services should be aware that an increasing proportion of heavier drinkers may be having financial difficulties...
November 21, 2025 at 9:43 AM
These findings present a bit of a mixed picture - it's clear that alcohol support services should be aware that an increasing proportion of heavier drinkers may be having financial difficulties...
The prevalence of cost-motivated reduction attempts was highest among heavier drinkers, current smokers and lower socioeconomic groups, although these gaps narrowed and all but disappeared by 2024. We also found higher prevalence in younger adults and people experiencing psychological distress.
November 21, 2025 at 9:43 AM
The prevalence of cost-motivated reduction attempts was highest among heavier drinkers, current smokers and lower socioeconomic groups, although these gaps narrowed and all but disappeared by 2024. We also found higher prevalence in younger adults and people experiencing psychological distress.
Overall we estimate that 1.1 million people attempted to reduce their alcohol consumption in 2024 with cost as a factor in that decision, although most of these people also cited other factors, such as health concerns.
November 21, 2025 at 9:43 AM
Overall we estimate that 1.1 million people attempted to reduce their alcohol consumption in 2024 with cost as a factor in that decision, although most of these people also cited other factors, such as health concerns.
This suggests that cost is an increasingly salient factor for heavier drinkers, but this doesn't appear to have driven an increase in attempts to drink less. It seems that cost is just one of many important factors that lead people to try and cut down on their drinking.
November 21, 2025 at 9:43 AM
This suggests that cost is an increasingly salient factor for heavier drinkers, but this doesn't appear to have driven an increase in attempts to drink less. It seems that cost is just one of many important factors that lead people to try and cut down on their drinking.
We find a clear increase in the proportion of risky drinkers who have attempted to reduce their alcohol consumption in the past year and cite cost as a factor in that decision.
BUT
No change in the overall proportion of risky drinkers attempting to cut down.
BUT
No change in the overall proportion of risky drinkers attempting to cut down.
November 21, 2025 at 9:43 AM
We find a clear increase in the proportion of risky drinkers who have attempted to reduce their alcohol consumption in the past year and cite cost as a factor in that decision.
BUT
No change in the overall proportion of risky drinkers attempting to cut down.
BUT
No change in the overall proportion of risky drinkers attempting to cut down.
What the what now? This is *wild*!
November 13, 2025 at 12:59 PM
What the what now? This is *wild*!
During the only period in recent history when alcohol duties were increased above inflation for a sustained period - the 2008-2013 duty escalator - Treasury revenue *rose*, both in cash- and real-terms.
November 13, 2025 at 12:05 PM
During the only period in recent history when alcohol duties were increased above inflation for a sustained period - the 2008-2013 duty escalator - Treasury revenue *rose*, both in cash- and real-terms.
This graph also rather challenges attempts that the alcohol industry often make invoking the Laffer curve (which says that there is a point at which increasing tax rates leads to a reduction, not an increase, in total tax take) to say that increasing alcohol duties would lose the Treasury money.
November 13, 2025 at 12:05 PM
This graph also rather challenges attempts that the alcohol industry often make invoking the Laffer curve (which says that there is a point at which increasing tax rates leads to a reduction, not an increase, in total tax take) to say that increasing alcohol duties would lose the Treasury money.
We looked into this in more detail here, but basically the evidence strongly points to this being a cost-of-living crisis effect and basically nothing to do with the duty reforms:
doi.org/10.1111/add....
doi.org/10.1111/add....
Estimating recent trends in alcohol sales in the United Kingdom from alcohol duty revenue
Background and Aims
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to significant changes in individual-level alcohol consumption and a sharp increase in heavy drinking in the United Kingdom (UK). More rece.....
doi.org
November 13, 2025 at 12:05 PM
We looked into this in more detail here, but basically the evidence strongly points to this being a cost-of-living crisis effect and basically nothing to do with the duty reforms:
doi.org/10.1111/add....
doi.org/10.1111/add....
Recent weeks have seen lots of attempts from the alcohol industry to blame the 2023 duty reforms for falls in government revenue from alcohol duties, but the data just doens't support this.
Looking at total receipts, they were falling well before the reforms came in in August 2023.
Looking at total receipts, they were falling well before the reforms came in in August 2023.
November 13, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Recent weeks have seen lots of attempts from the alcohol industry to blame the 2023 duty reforms for falls in government revenue from alcohol duties, but the data just doens't support this.
Looking at total receipts, they were falling well before the reforms came in in August 2023.
Looking at total receipts, they were falling well before the reforms came in in August 2023.
Also when thinking about inflation, it's worth noting that although the cost-of-living crisis has seen well above usual levels of inflation, the average prices of alcohol have risen more slowly than almost any other food or drink items.
As a result alcohol is *more* affordable now.
As a result alcohol is *more* affordable now.
November 13, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Also when thinking about inflation, it's worth noting that although the cost-of-living crisis has seen well above usual levels of inflation, the average prices of alcohol have risen more slowly than almost any other food or drink items.
As a result alcohol is *more* affordable now.
As a result alcohol is *more* affordable now.