Colin Angus
@victimofmaths.bsky.social
Professor of Alcohol Policy in the Sheffield Addictions Research Group (@SARG-SCHARR), graph drawer, data botherer, cake eater, incompetent cyclist and intermittent birder.
We also looked at how these trends in risky drinking and mean consumption differed by gender, age and socieconomic position, with the most striking patterns across socioeconomic groups.
November 24, 2025 at 3:38 PM
We also looked at how these trends in risky drinking and mean consumption differed by gender, age and socieconomic position, with the most striking patterns across socioeconomic groups.
We replicate the finding from previous studies that all 3 of these outcomes increased at the onset of the pandemic. We then find that the prevalence of risky drinking and mean weekly consumption is slowly returning towards pre-pandemic levels.
November 24, 2025 at 3:38 PM
We replicate the finding from previous studies that all 3 of these outcomes increased at the onset of the pandemic. We then find that the prevalence of risky drinking and mean weekly consumption is slowly returning towards pre-pandemic levels.
Another new @addictionjournal.bsky.social paper out today looking at trends in alcohol consumption in England and trying to answer the important question as to whether this has returned to pre-pandemic levels after rising during the first lockdown.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
November 24, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Another new @addictionjournal.bsky.social paper out today looking at trends in alcohol consumption in England and trying to answer the important question as to whether this has returned to pre-pandemic levels after rising during the first lockdown.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
The prevalence of cost-motivated reduction attempts was highest among heavier drinkers, current smokers and lower socioeconomic groups, although these gaps narrowed and all but disappeared by 2024. We also found higher prevalence in younger adults and people experiencing psychological distress.
November 21, 2025 at 9:43 AM
The prevalence of cost-motivated reduction attempts was highest among heavier drinkers, current smokers and lower socioeconomic groups, although these gaps narrowed and all but disappeared by 2024. We also found higher prevalence in younger adults and people experiencing psychological distress.
We find a clear increase in the proportion of risky drinkers who have attempted to reduce their alcohol consumption in the past year and cite cost as a factor in that decision.
BUT
No change in the overall proportion of risky drinkers attempting to cut down.
BUT
No change in the overall proportion of risky drinkers attempting to cut down.
November 21, 2025 at 9:43 AM
We find a clear increase in the proportion of risky drinkers who have attempted to reduce their alcohol consumption in the past year and cite cost as a factor in that decision.
BUT
No change in the overall proportion of risky drinkers attempting to cut down.
BUT
No change in the overall proportion of risky drinkers attempting to cut down.
We've got a new paper out in @addictionjournal.bsky.social led by @drsarahejackson.bsky.social looking at trends in cost as a motivating factor for people looking to reduce their alcohol consumption.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
November 21, 2025 at 9:43 AM
We've got a new paper out in @addictionjournal.bsky.social led by @drsarahejackson.bsky.social looking at trends in cost as a motivating factor for people looking to reduce their alcohol consumption.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
During the only period in recent history when alcohol duties were increased above inflation for a sustained period - the 2008-2013 duty escalator - Treasury revenue *rose*, both in cash- and real-terms.
November 13, 2025 at 12:05 PM
During the only period in recent history when alcohol duties were increased above inflation for a sustained period - the 2008-2013 duty escalator - Treasury revenue *rose*, both in cash- and real-terms.
This graph also rather challenges attempts that the alcohol industry often make invoking the Laffer curve (which says that there is a point at which increasing tax rates leads to a reduction, not an increase, in total tax take) to say that increasing alcohol duties would lose the Treasury money.
November 13, 2025 at 12:05 PM
This graph also rather challenges attempts that the alcohol industry often make invoking the Laffer curve (which says that there is a point at which increasing tax rates leads to a reduction, not an increase, in total tax take) to say that increasing alcohol duties would lose the Treasury money.
Recent weeks have seen lots of attempts from the alcohol industry to blame the 2023 duty reforms for falls in government revenue from alcohol duties, but the data just doens't support this.
Looking at total receipts, they were falling well before the reforms came in in August 2023.
Looking at total receipts, they were falling well before the reforms came in in August 2023.
November 13, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Recent weeks have seen lots of attempts from the alcohol industry to blame the 2023 duty reforms for falls in government revenue from alcohol duties, but the data just doens't support this.
Looking at total receipts, they were falling well before the reforms came in in August 2023.
Looking at total receipts, they were falling well before the reforms came in in August 2023.
Also when thinking about inflation, it's worth noting that although the cost-of-living crisis has seen well above usual levels of inflation, the average prices of alcohol have risen more slowly than almost any other food or drink items.
As a result alcohol is *more* affordable now.
As a result alcohol is *more* affordable now.
November 13, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Also when thinking about inflation, it's worth noting that although the cost-of-living crisis has seen well above usual levels of inflation, the average prices of alcohol have risen more slowly than almost any other food or drink items.
As a result alcohol is *more* affordable now.
As a result alcohol is *more* affordable now.
This plot also shows the tail end of the duty escalator that increased duty by 2% above inflation until 2013, the coalition and Conservative gov'ts successive duty cuts and freezes and then the duty reforms and inflation-linked duty increases since 2023 keeping things more steady in real terms.
November 13, 2025 at 12:05 PM
This plot also shows the tail end of the duty escalator that increased duty by 2% above inflation until 2013, the coalition and Conservative gov'ts successive duty cuts and freezes and then the duty reforms and inflation-linked duty increases since 2023 keeping things more steady in real terms.
Looking at just the last 15 years, after adjusting for inflation, alcohol duty rates are 29.5% lower for beer, 16.1% lower for cider, 8.0% lower for wine and 22.8% lower for spirits than January 2010.
November 13, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Looking at just the last 15 years, after adjusting for inflation, alcohol duty rates are 29.5% lower for beer, 16.1% lower for cider, 8.0% lower for wine and 22.8% lower for spirits than January 2010.
A few thoughts on alcohol duty ahead of the budget (and an excuse to update some old graphs).
These two show the important of accounting for inflation - in cash terms alcohol duty rates are higher than ever before, but in real terms they are at historically low levels.
These two show the important of accounting for inflation - in cash terms alcohol duty rates are higher than ever before, but in real terms they are at historically low levels.
November 13, 2025 at 12:05 PM
A few thoughts on alcohol duty ahead of the budget (and an excuse to update some old graphs).
These two show the important of accounting for inflation - in cash terms alcohol duty rates are higher than ever before, but in real terms they are at historically low levels.
These two show the important of accounting for inflation - in cash terms alcohol duty rates are higher than ever before, but in real terms they are at historically low levels.
Alcoholic drinks, along with fruit and fish, are the only food and drink category to have got cheaper, in real terms, since the start of the cost-of-living crisis.
Beer has got slightly more expensive in real terms since the end of 2022, but wine and spirits remain at late 2022 prices.
Beer has got slightly more expensive in real terms since the end of 2022, but wine and spirits remain at late 2022 prices.
October 24, 2025 at 12:33 PM
Alcoholic drinks, along with fruit and fish, are the only food and drink category to have got cheaper, in real terms, since the start of the cost-of-living crisis.
Beer has got slightly more expensive in real terms since the end of 2022, but wine and spirits remain at late 2022 prices.
Beer has got slightly more expensive in real terms since the end of 2022, but wine and spirits remain at late 2022 prices.
Alcohol-specific deaths have falling in almost all age groups, with the biggest falls in the age groups with the highest rates and that had seen the biggest increases during the pandemic.
Although, maybe there's a slight concern about the oldest (75+) age groups where the trends look less positive.
Although, maybe there's a slight concern about the oldest (75+) age groups where the trends look less positive.
October 20, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Alcohol-specific deaths have falling in almost all age groups, with the biggest falls in the age groups with the highest rates and that had seen the biggest increases during the pandemic.
Although, maybe there's a slight concern about the oldest (75+) age groups where the trends look less positive.
Although, maybe there's a slight concern about the oldest (75+) age groups where the trends look less positive.
Alcohol-specific deaths fell in both men and women, but the fall was slightly larger in both absolute and relative terms for men (-8.7% vs. -6.2%), but around twice as many men as women die from these causes each year.
October 20, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Alcohol-specific deaths fell in both men and women, but the fall was slightly larger in both absolute and relative terms for men (-8.7% vs. -6.2%), but around twice as many men as women die from these causes each year.
The fall in 2024 was slightly larger in England than in Wales, although this should be considered in the context of Wales' much smaller population making Welsh figures considerably noisier than the English ones.
October 20, 2025 at 10:03 AM
The fall in 2024 was slightly larger in England than in Wales, although this should be considered in the context of Wales' much smaller population making Welsh figures considerably noisier than the English ones.
New data shows that the rate of alcohol-specific deaths in England & Wales *fell* in 2024 by 7.8%, but remain well above pre-pandemic levels.
This is the first fall since 2018, and is certainly good news, but the no. of people who sadly died from these causes in 2024 is still 1/3 higher than 2019
This is the first fall since 2018, and is certainly good news, but the no. of people who sadly died from these causes in 2024 is still 1/3 higher than 2019
October 20, 2025 at 10:03 AM
New data shows that the rate of alcohol-specific deaths in England & Wales *fell* in 2024 by 7.8%, but remain well above pre-pandemic levels.
This is the first fall since 2018, and is certainly good news, but the no. of people who sadly died from these causes in 2024 is still 1/3 higher than 2019
This is the first fall since 2018, and is certainly good news, but the no. of people who sadly died from these causes in 2024 is still 1/3 higher than 2019
It's not impossible, but I'd be surprised if it was artefactual. I'm using a broad definition (anything with an ICD-10 code starting in V) and the GB road traffic deaths data shows a similar pattern, with a sharp drop around 2010: www.gov.uk/government/s...
October 16, 2025 at 8:08 AM
It's not impossible, but I'd be surprised if it was artefactual. I'm using a broad definition (anything with an ICD-10 code starting in V) and the GB road traffic deaths data shows a similar pattern, with a sharp drop around 2010: www.gov.uk/government/s...
I was looking at some Scottish cause of death data yesterday and the extent to which transport accident deaths in young men have all but disappeared is pretty remarkable.
Nice to find a good news story in this data for a change.
Nice to find a good news story in this data for a change.
October 16, 2025 at 7:50 AM
I was looking at some Scottish cause of death data yesterday and the extent to which transport accident deaths in young men have all but disappeared is pretty remarkable.
Nice to find a good news story in this data for a change.
Nice to find a good news story in this data for a change.
Not a bad morning round these parts.
October 12, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Not a bad morning round these parts.
My wife requested a Battenberg birthday cake, so it would have been rude not to oblige. Pretty happy with how this turned out.
October 11, 2025 at 4:18 PM
My wife requested a Battenberg birthday cake, so it would have been rude not to oblige. Pretty happy with how this turned out.
If we want to support the hospitality sector (which may well be a perfectly reasonable goal) then there are many other ways this could be done - e.g. making greater use of the new 'draught relief' in the duty system to narrow the huge price gap between shops and pubs
October 9, 2025 at 9:28 AM
If we want to support the hospitality sector (which may well be a perfectly reasonable goal) then there are many other ways this could be done - e.g. making greater use of the new 'draught relief' in the duty system to narrow the huge price gap between shops and pubs
Pubs have been haemorrhaging their share of the alcohol market to shops for decades. We now buy 70-80% of our alcohol in shops (and ~70% of that in supermarkets).
The logic of how liberalising licensing for both pubs and shops will help pubs is a mystery to me.
The logic of how liberalising licensing for both pubs and shops will help pubs is a mystery to me.
October 9, 2025 at 9:28 AM
Pubs have been haemorrhaging their share of the alcohol market to shops for decades. We now buy 70-80% of our alcohol in shops (and ~70% of that in supermarkets).
The logic of how liberalising licensing for both pubs and shops will help pubs is a mystery to me.
The logic of how liberalising licensing for both pubs and shops will help pubs is a mystery to me.
We estimate that over 2/3 (69.7%) of deaths caused by alcohol in NI are among men, with a particularly strong male bias for alcohol-related injury deaths, and 43.6% are in the over 65s, although alcohol-specific deaths are more common in 45-54 and 55-64 year-olds.
October 1, 2025 at 12:20 PM
We estimate that over 2/3 (69.7%) of deaths caused by alcohol in NI are among men, with a particularly strong male bias for alcohol-related injury deaths, and 43.6% are in the over 65s, although alcohol-specific deaths are more common in 45-54 and 55-64 year-olds.