Are heavy drawdowns likelier if employment weakness is driven by labor demand or by labor supply?
November 22, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Are heavy drawdowns likelier if employment weakness is driven by labor demand or by labor supply?
Reposted by V Urba
Interest rates should be high if monetary policy is optimal, low if policy errors need to be fixed
July 12, 2025 at 11:56 PM
Interest rates should be high if monetary policy is optimal, low if policy errors need to be fixed
Interest rates should be high if monetary policy is optimal, low if policy errors need to be fixed
July 12, 2025 at 11:56 PM
Interest rates should be high if monetary policy is optimal, low if policy errors need to be fixed
Reposted by V Urba
The president is not for turning.
This is not a problem at all, as I was wrong on the real bee. The real bee will include export rebates.
This is not a problem at all, as I was wrong on the real bee. The real bee will include export rebates.
April 9, 2025 at 5:48 AM
The president is not for turning.
This is not a problem at all, as I was wrong on the real bee. The real bee will include export rebates.
This is not a problem at all, as I was wrong on the real bee. The real bee will include export rebates.
Reposted by V Urba
A Trump-Powell put could be the equivalent of fast-forwarding through the calming process, but it would require cooperation, and Trump’s part of the cooperation would have to be completely reversing himself on tariff policy.
April 8, 2025 at 10:55 PM
A Trump-Powell put could be the equivalent of fast-forwarding through the calming process, but it would require cooperation, and Trump’s part of the cooperation would have to be completely reversing himself on tariff policy.
The president is not for turning.
This is not a problem at all, as I was wrong on the real bee. The real bee will include export rebates.
This is not a problem at all, as I was wrong on the real bee. The real bee will include export rebates.
April 9, 2025 at 5:48 AM
The president is not for turning.
This is not a problem at all, as I was wrong on the real bee. The real bee will include export rebates.
This is not a problem at all, as I was wrong on the real bee. The real bee will include export rebates.
Reposted by V Urba
policymakers simply need to say “I will do whatever it takes…”, and then the bull market will start in an instant, unless they also say “the tariff policy will graduate to a real bee”
April 8, 2025 at 9:39 PM
policymakers simply need to say “I will do whatever it takes…”, and then the bull market will start in an instant, unless they also say “the tariff policy will graduate to a real bee”
policymakers simply need to say “I will do whatever it takes…”, and then the bull market will start in an instant, unless they also say “the tariff policy will graduate to a real bee”
April 8, 2025 at 9:39 PM
policymakers simply need to say “I will do whatever it takes…”, and then the bull market will start in an instant, unless they also say “the tariff policy will graduate to a real bee”
“Due to FOMC blackout policy, today’s post does not include an update of the version of the model described here that adjusts the standard GDPNow model forecast for foreign trade in gold. That adjusted model will again be updated after our first scheduled post-blackout update on March 26.”
March 21, 2025 at 5:23 PM
“Due to FOMC blackout policy, today’s post does not include an update of the version of the model described here that adjusts the standard GDPNow model forecast for foreign trade in gold. That adjusted model will again be updated after our first scheduled post-blackout update on March 26.”
They also publish gold import adjusted version that is higher
March 19, 2025 at 3:32 PM
They also publish gold import adjusted version that is higher
Great update. Just a small quibble - it would be great to specify that 4.5% growth rate is nominal, not real. Then there is the question whether the periods compared have the same underlying inflation
January 9, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Great update. Just a small quibble - it would be great to specify that 4.5% growth rate is nominal, not real. Then there is the question whether the periods compared have the same underlying inflation
Interesting, but isn’t it a bit of an outlier in the whole set of available labor market indicators?
December 7, 2024 at 6:59 PM
Interesting, but isn’t it a bit of an outlier in the whole set of available labor market indicators?
The visible arrows of "3-3-3" are a clear call to investors to act now. But the fourth hidden arrow—tariffs—could change the game. Is waiting a better bet? Should we stay alert, and be ready to move fast to one direction or another as the policy details emerge?
November 28, 2024 at 8:18 PM
The visible arrows of "3-3-3" are a clear call to investors to act now. But the fourth hidden arrow—tariffs—could change the game. Is waiting a better bet? Should we stay alert, and be ready to move fast to one direction or another as the policy details emerge?
Tariffs have a negative impact on aggregate supply by increasing production costs and disrupting supply chains. They also increase market volatility.
While deregulation and increased oil production aim to boost growth and keep inflation down, higher tariffs could slow growth and push prices up.
While deregulation and increased oil production aim to boost growth and keep inflation down, higher tariffs could slow growth and push prices up.
November 28, 2024 at 8:18 PM
Tariffs have a negative impact on aggregate supply by increasing production costs and disrupting supply chains. They also increase market volatility.
While deregulation and increased oil production aim to boost growth and keep inflation down, higher tariffs could slow growth and push prices up.
While deregulation and increased oil production aim to boost growth and keep inflation down, higher tariffs could slow growth and push prices up.
Prediction market Kalshi says there's a 64% chance that the Trump administration might more than double the effective import tariff rate next year. This could throw a wrench into the works.
November 28, 2024 at 8:18 PM
Prediction market Kalshi says there's a 64% chance that the Trump administration might more than double the effective import tariff rate next year. This could throw a wrench into the works.
And let’s not forget oil. More production means cheaper energy, which is great for industries that benefit from low energy prices. It helps the trade balance, making the dollar stronger. Bonus point: keep an eye on a possible rotation from oil to other industrial commodities.
November 27, 2024 at 9:57 PM
And let’s not forget oil. More production means cheaper energy, which is great for industries that benefit from low energy prices. It helps the trade balance, making the dollar stronger. Bonus point: keep an eye on a possible rotation from oil to other industrial commodities.
Shrinking the deficit lowers the risk of a dollar crash or Treasury meltdown and gives the Fed more breathing room to do its job. Deregulation and an oil boom mean more stuff gets made, inflation chills out, and the Fed might never have to hit the brakes too hard.
November 27, 2024 at 9:57 PM
Shrinking the deficit lowers the risk of a dollar crash or Treasury meltdown and gives the Fed more breathing room to do its job. Deregulation and an oil boom mean more stuff gets made, inflation chills out, and the Fed might never have to hit the brakes too hard.
That said, thinking about pros and cons of slight adjustments in your portfolio might be useful, despite the high valuations and stretched sentiment, as potential of lower natural interests rate is good news for stocks.
November 27, 2024 at 9:57 PM
That said, thinking about pros and cons of slight adjustments in your portfolio might be useful, despite the high valuations and stretched sentiment, as potential of lower natural interests rate is good news for stocks.
But here’s the catch: “2-2-2-2” was a monetary magic trick, while “3-3-3” is more of a messy fix of fiscal and industrial plumbing, much harder to pull off. Furthermore, a lot of the potential gains are already baked into stock and currency prices; fireworks are less likely.
November 27, 2024 at 9:56 PM
But here’s the catch: “2-2-2-2” was a monetary magic trick, while “3-3-3” is more of a messy fix of fiscal and industrial plumbing, much harder to pull off. Furthermore, a lot of the potential gains are already baked into stock and currency prices; fireworks are less likely.