Reposted by V Urba
So riddle me this. If AI optimists are right, should interest rates be high (because capital returns will be high & marginal consumption utility will be falling) or low (because monetary policy will have to offset the deflationary effect of rapid productivity growth, & worker displacement)?
July 10, 2025 at 3:44 PM
So riddle me this. If AI optimists are right, should interest rates be high (because capital returns will be high & marginal consumption utility will be falling) or low (because monetary policy will have to offset the deflationary effect of rapid productivity growth, & worker displacement)?
Reposted by V Urba
Interest rates should be high if monetary policy is optimal, low if policy errors need to be fixed
July 12, 2025 at 11:56 PM
Interest rates should be high if monetary policy is optimal, low if policy errors need to be fixed
Ignore the headline (distorted by imports), focus on the components
After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.3% and -1.4%, respectively, to 4.0% and 0.5%.
June 4, 2025 at 10:19 AM
Ignore the headline (distorted by imports), focus on the components
Reposted by V Urba
The president is not for turning.
This is not a problem at all, as I was wrong on the real bee. The real bee will include export rebates.
This is not a problem at all, as I was wrong on the real bee. The real bee will include export rebates.
April 9, 2025 at 5:48 AM
The president is not for turning.
This is not a problem at all, as I was wrong on the real bee. The real bee will include export rebates.
This is not a problem at all, as I was wrong on the real bee. The real bee will include export rebates.
Reposted by V Urba
A Trump-Powell put could be the equivalent of fast-forwarding through the calming process, but it would require cooperation, and Trump’s part of the cooperation would have to be completely reversing himself on tariff policy.
April 8, 2025 at 10:55 PM
A Trump-Powell put could be the equivalent of fast-forwarding through the calming process, but it would require cooperation, and Trump’s part of the cooperation would have to be completely reversing himself on tariff policy.
Reposted by V Urba
policymakers simply need to say “I will do whatever it takes…”, and then the bull market will start in an instant, unless they also say “the tariff policy will graduate to a real bee”
April 8, 2025 at 9:39 PM
policymakers simply need to say “I will do whatever it takes…”, and then the bull market will start in an instant, unless they also say “the tariff policy will graduate to a real bee”
Atlanta Fed GDPNow is too pessimistic for Q1—largely due to miscalibrated sensitivity to import. Gold-adjusted readings look better, but what we really need is a version adjusted for all imports.
April 2, 2025 at 1:10 PM
Atlanta Fed GDPNow is too pessimistic for Q1—largely due to miscalibrated sensitivity to import. Gold-adjusted readings look better, but what we really need is a version adjusted for all imports.
The previous analysis of Bessent’s "3-3-3" plan ignored tariffs—the fourth arrow of the plan that goes against the direction of the first three. (1/x)
bsky.app/profile/v-ur...
bsky.app/profile/v-ur...
Scott Bessent’s “3-3-3” plan has a nice ring to it, much like Japan’s “2-2-2-2” plan from 2013, which kicked off the Abe trade and made investors swoon. (1/5)
November 28, 2024 at 8:17 PM
The previous analysis of Bessent’s "3-3-3" plan ignored tariffs—the fourth arrow of the plan that goes against the direction of the first three. (1/x)
bsky.app/profile/v-ur...
bsky.app/profile/v-ur...
Scott Bessent’s “3-3-3” plan has a nice ring to it, much like Japan’s “2-2-2-2” plan from 2013, which kicked off the Abe trade and made investors swoon. (1/5)
November 27, 2024 at 9:56 PM
Scott Bessent’s “3-3-3” plan has a nice ring to it, much like Japan’s “2-2-2-2” plan from 2013, which kicked off the Abe trade and made investors swoon. (1/5)