OSINT Intuit™
@urikikaski.bsky.social
Clinical, unsparing, quietly damning OSINT analysis of the war in Ukraine. Focused on dismantling Russian disinformation and its war machine.
It may have been about the warning. That is the story hidden between the lines. Follow OSINT Intuit for hard-hitting truth and uncompromising analysis of Russia’s information war.
14/14
14/14
November 27, 2025 at 11:40 AM
It may have been about the warning. That is the story hidden between the lines. Follow OSINT Intuit for hard-hitting truth and uncompromising analysis of Russia’s information war.
14/14
14/14
OSINT takeaway: when the Kremlin warns that “leaks undermine peace,” it often means the leak undermined their influence operation. And in this case, it strongly suggests the Europeans have more than one intercept.
The leak may not have been about the conversation.
13/14
The leak may not have been about the conversation.
13/14
November 27, 2025 at 11:40 AM
OSINT takeaway: when the Kremlin warns that “leaks undermine peace,” it often means the leak undermined their influence operation. And in this case, it strongly suggests the Europeans have more than one intercept.
The leak may not have been about the conversation.
13/14
The leak may not have been about the conversation.
13/14
Russia uses intermediaries with access. Russia pushes it through an American political network. When allies expose it, Moscow accuses those allies of “undermining peace.”
12/14
12/14
November 27, 2025 at 11:39 AM
Russia uses intermediaries with access. Russia pushes it through an American political network. When allies expose it, Moscow accuses those allies of “undermining peace.”
12/14
12/14
It tells us everything about who the leak embarrasses. If it truly damaged diplomacy, Russia would file a formal protest, not a PR line. The aim is to protect the Miami channel because it benefits them.
This fits a familiar pattern. Russia drafts language.
11/14
This fits a familiar pattern. Russia drafts language.
11/14
November 27, 2025 at 11:39 AM
It tells us everything about who the leak embarrasses. If it truly damaged diplomacy, Russia would file a formal protest, not a PR line. The aim is to protect the Miami channel because it benefits them.
This fits a familiar pattern. Russia drafts language.
11/14
This fits a familiar pattern. Russia drafts language.
11/14
You show Washington.
Now the Kremlin has issued a statement accusing the leak of trying to “disrupt peace talks.” That is the default script. When exposure undermines a Russian influence channel, Moscow claims the exposure is the real threat.
Their response tells us nothing about the leak.
10/14
Now the Kremlin has issued a statement accusing the leak of trying to “disrupt peace talks.” That is the default script. When exposure undermines a Russian influence channel, Moscow claims the exposure is the real threat.
Their response tells us nothing about the leak.
10/14
November 27, 2025 at 11:39 AM
You show Washington.
Now the Kremlin has issued a statement accusing the leak of trying to “disrupt peace talks.” That is the default script. When exposure undermines a Russian influence channel, Moscow claims the exposure is the real threat.
Their response tells us nothing about the leak.
10/14
Now the Kremlin has issued a statement accusing the leak of trying to “disrupt peace talks.” That is the default script. When exposure undermines a Russian influence channel, Moscow claims the exposure is the real threat.
Their response tells us nothing about the leak.
10/14
Europeans were blindsided. Witkoff was allegedly running a shadow channel. This leak landed right in that context.
If a European service believes these backchannels threaten European security, signaling their ability to monitor them becomes a strategic move. You do not call Washington.
9/14
If a European service believes these backchannels threaten European security, signaling their ability to monitor them becomes a strategic move. You do not call Washington.
9/14
November 27, 2025 at 11:39 AM
Europeans were blindsided. Witkoff was allegedly running a shadow channel. This leak landed right in that context.
If a European service believes these backchannels threaten European security, signaling their ability to monitor them becomes a strategic move. You do not call Washington.
9/14
If a European service believes these backchannels threaten European security, signaling their ability to monitor them becomes a strategic move. You do not call Washington.
9/14
Intelligence services often communicate through controlled leaks. When they want to say "we are watching," they do not publish the damaging material. A sample is enough.
The timing matters. Reports already describe tension inside the U.S. government over the 28-point plan. Rubio was sidelined.
8/14
The timing matters. Reports already describe tension inside the U.S. government over the 28-point plan. Rubio was sidelined.
8/14
November 27, 2025 at 11:39 AM
Intelligence services often communicate through controlled leaks. When they want to say "we are watching," they do not publish the damaging material. A sample is enough.
The timing matters. Reports already describe tension inside the U.S. government over the 28-point plan. Rubio was sidelined.
8/14
The timing matters. Reports already describe tension inside the U.S. government over the 28-point plan. Rubio was sidelined.
8/14
It shows that any diplomacy carried out outside official channels is visible to at least one ally. It forces discipline. It forces recalibration. It raises the cost of secrecy.
This is not assertion. It is a reasonable OSINT hypothesis.
7/14
This is not assertion. It is a reasonable OSINT hypothesis.
7/14
November 27, 2025 at 11:39 AM
It shows that any diplomacy carried out outside official channels is visible to at least one ally. It forces discipline. It forces recalibration. It raises the cost of secrecy.
This is not assertion. It is a reasonable OSINT hypothesis.
7/14
This is not assertion. It is a reasonable OSINT hypothesis.
7/14
If Steve Witkoff saw his own call surface in European media, the first question he would logically ask is simple: what additional calls, texts, or meetings did they intercept? That doubt alone can shift the entire dynamic.
This kind of leak pressures the White House too.
6/14
This kind of leak pressures the White House too.
6/14
November 27, 2025 at 11:39 AM
If Steve Witkoff saw his own call surface in European media, the first question he would logically ask is simple: what additional calls, texts, or meetings did they intercept? That doubt alone can shift the entire dynamic.
This kind of leak pressures the White House too.
6/14
This kind of leak pressures the White House too.
6/14
By releasing a small piece, the European service may have been sending a quiet warning. The real question becomes: what else did they collect? This is often enough to change behavior inside any backchannel that assumed secrecy.
5/14
5/14
November 27, 2025 at 11:39 AM
By releasing a small piece, the European service may have been sending a quiet warning. The real question becomes: what else did they collect? This is often enough to change behavior inside any backchannel that assumed secrecy.
5/14
5/14
One hypothesis is that the intercept itself was not the point. The release may have been the message. This is a known signaling method: publish a harmless slice to show capability while holding back the serious material.
4/14
4/14
November 27, 2025 at 11:39 AM
One hypothesis is that the intercept itself was not the point. The release may have been the message. This is a known signaling method: publish a harmless slice to show capability while holding back the serious material.
4/14
4/14
Intercepts involving a Russian presidential adviser and an American presidential envoy are usually locked behind strict compartmentalization. A service does not casually leak this material. When it happens, it is almost always done for a strategic purpose.
3/14
3/14
November 27, 2025 at 11:39 AM
Intercepts involving a Russian presidential adviser and an American presidential envoy are usually locked behind strict compartmentalization. A service does not casually leak this material. When it happens, it is almost always done for a strategic purpose.
3/14
3/14
The released content was mild. Nothing explosive. Basic confirmation that talks occurred and that Moscow is shaping its message. And that is exactly why the leak is significant. High-level SIGINT of this type is rarely seen in press coverage.
2/14
2/14
November 27, 2025 at 11:39 AM
The released content was mild. Nothing explosive. Basic confirmation that talks occurred and that Moscow is shaping its message. And that is exactly why the leak is significant. High-level SIGINT of this type is rarely seen in press coverage.
2/14
2/14
The Witkoff transcript is only the beginning.
Follow OSINT Intuit™ for hard-hitting truth and uncompromising analysis of Russia’s information war.
#OSINT
7/7
Follow OSINT Intuit™ for hard-hitting truth and uncompromising analysis of Russia’s information war.
#OSINT
7/7
November 26, 2025 at 3:22 PM
The Witkoff transcript is only the beginning.
Follow OSINT Intuit™ for hard-hitting truth and uncompromising analysis of Russia’s information war.
#OSINT
7/7
Follow OSINT Intuit™ for hard-hitting truth and uncompromising analysis of Russia’s information war.
#OSINT
7/7
They search for intermediaries with access and use those pathways to shape policy around formal structures. Next week I will release the opening section of the “Rogue Insider” report, which explains how hidden channels form and how adversaries exploit them.
6/7
6/7
November 26, 2025 at 3:22 PM
They search for intermediaries with access and use those pathways to shape policy around formal structures. Next week I will release the opening section of the “Rogue Insider” report, which explains how hidden channels form and how adversaries exploit them.
6/7
6/7
The intelligence community will examine how an unvetted adviser gained proximity to wartime diplomacy and why the White House allowed the ambiguity to stand.
This event is part of a wider pattern. Foreign influence operations do not wait for official negotiations.
5/7
This event is part of a wider pattern. Foreign influence operations do not wait for official negotiations.
5/7
November 26, 2025 at 3:22 PM
The intelligence community will examine how an unvetted adviser gained proximity to wartime diplomacy and why the White House allowed the ambiguity to stand.
This event is part of a wider pattern. Foreign influence operations do not wait for official negotiations.
5/7
This event is part of a wider pattern. Foreign influence operations do not wait for official negotiations.
5/7
Kyiv will restrict sensitive disclosures. European governments will question the neutrality of US mediation. Moscow will interpret this as confirmation that it can reach the White House through personal channels.
4/7
4/7
November 26, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Kyiv will restrict sensitive disclosures. European governments will question the neutrality of US mediation. Moscow will interpret this as confirmation that it can reach the White House through personal channels.
4/7
4/7
That claim collapses under the transcript. Witkoff was coaching a Kremlin adviser on how to present “the” plan to the President as if it were theirs. You cannot author a document while your envoy is helping a foreign power pitch it to you.
The consequences reach far beyond the transcript.
3/7
The consequences reach far beyond the transcript.
3/7
November 26, 2025 at 3:22 PM
That claim collapses under the transcript. Witkoff was coaching a Kremlin adviser on how to present “the” plan to the President as if it were theirs. You cannot author a document while your envoy is helping a foreign power pitch it to you.
The consequences reach far beyond the transcript.
3/7
The consequences reach far beyond the transcript.
3/7
The White House has not disputed the authenticity of the transcript. The plan itself mirrors Russia’s goals. Ukraine would concede territory and reduce its military while Russia locks in strategic gains.
One detail stands out. The White House insists it authored the 28-point Framework.
2/7
One detail stands out. The White House insists it authored the 28-point Framework.
2/7
November 26, 2025 at 3:22 PM
The White House has not disputed the authenticity of the transcript. The plan itself mirrors Russia’s goals. Ukraine would concede territory and reduce its military while Russia locks in strategic gains.
One detail stands out. The White House insists it authored the 28-point Framework.
2/7
One detail stands out. The White House insists it authored the 28-point Framework.
2/7
If this activity is part of a strike cycle, sorties would typically begin between 2000 and 2200 UTC, with missile impacts occurring between 0500 and 0700 UTC.
2/2
2/2
November 26, 2025 at 2:19 PM
If this activity is part of a strike cycle, sorties would typically begin between 2000 and 2200 UTC, with missile impacts occurring between 0500 and 0700 UTC.
2/2
2/2