Ulas Karakoc
@ulisas.bsky.social
Asst. prof in Economics at Kadir Has Uni. Development, agriculture, economic history, applied statistics/econometrics. Previously at LSE and Humboldt Uni Berlin. www.ulaskarakoc.com
Reposted by Ulas Karakoc
Taking the literature as a whole, the global consequences of unmitigated climate change are likely to be substantial, unequal, harmful in aggregate, and potentially destabilizing, from Solomon Hsiang www.nber.org/papers/w34357
October 17, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Taking the literature as a whole, the global consequences of unmitigated climate change are likely to be substantial, unequal, harmful in aggregate, and potentially destabilizing, from Solomon Hsiang www.nber.org/papers/w34357
all this happens because academia is no longer a medium of debate and discussion. It is mostly about individual performance and reputation.
We just need 1-year pause only to read others work
We just need 1-year pause only to read others work
7 steps to junk science that can achieve worldly success
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/01/17/7...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/01/17/7...
7 steps to junk science that can achieve worldly success | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
August 9, 2025 at 9:05 AM
all this happens because academia is no longer a medium of debate and discussion. It is mostly about individual performance and reputation.
We just need 1-year pause only to read others work
We just need 1-year pause only to read others work
I really like @thomaspiketty.bsky.social’s paper Brahman Left, Merchant right.
Idea is simple yet profound: the political orientation of the rich has shifted from right to left after 1990s.
Idea is simple yet profound: the political orientation of the rich has shifted from right to left after 1990s.
August 9, 2025 at 8:47 AM
I really like @thomaspiketty.bsky.social’s paper Brahman Left, Merchant right.
Idea is simple yet profound: the political orientation of the rich has shifted from right to left after 1990s.
Idea is simple yet profound: the political orientation of the rich has shifted from right to left after 1990s.
If you wanna be a good social scientist, learn how to make your adversary a caricature and then demolish it. Nobody else will read your opponents anyways.
That is 51 percent of high-level social science. If not more.
That is 51 percent of high-level social science. If not more.
August 5, 2025 at 3:23 PM
If you wanna be a good social scientist, learn how to make your adversary a caricature and then demolish it. Nobody else will read your opponents anyways.
That is 51 percent of high-level social science. If not more.
That is 51 percent of high-level social science. If not more.
Bias-variance trade-off at work.
An analysis shows that current deep learning models do not beat linear baselines in predicting gene perturbation effects, thus emphasizing the importance of further method development and evaluation. @const-ae.bsky.social @wkhuber.bsky.social @s-anders.bsky.social
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Deep-learning-based gene perturbation effect prediction does not yet outperform simple linear baselines - Nature Methods
The analysis presented in this Brief Communication shows that, despite their complexity, current deep learning models do not outperform linear baselines in predicting gene perturbation effects, thus e...
www.nature.com
August 4, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Bias-variance trade-off at work.
Even better, teach undergrads the difference between prediction and causal inference and description.
Even better, require first years to take a combined intro to machine learning and decision theory, so they also get a sense of the potential gaps between good prediction and good decision-making
It’s going to take decades for this to happen, but an intro to machine learning should be required for first-year students.
August 3, 2025 at 10:03 PM
Even better, teach undergrads the difference between prediction and causal inference and description.
Reposted by Ulas Karakoc
Highly relevant to anybody working with regression discontinuity designs
*** 𝐡𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐨𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐨𝐮𝐬 𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐞𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐑𝐃𝐃 ***
Interested in 𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐃𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐬 and treatment effect heterogeneity?
Check out this new framework by Sebastian Calonico, Matias Cattaneo, Max Farrell, Filippo Palomba & Rocio Titiunik, as well as its companion software paper.
Interested in 𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐃𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐬 and treatment effect heterogeneity?
Check out this new framework by Sebastian Calonico, Matias Cattaneo, Max Farrell, Filippo Palomba & Rocio Titiunik, as well as its companion software paper.
August 3, 2025 at 9:40 PM
Highly relevant to anybody working with regression discontinuity designs
Looking forward to this…
"In an age of ephemeral hot takes flickering across social media feeds, Gidon Eshel’s 'Planetary Eating' stands out like a stone monument to old-fashioned scholarship." – @civileats.com
"Planetary Eating" is available now: mitpress.mit.edu/978026255214... @gidoneshel.bsky.social
"Planetary Eating" is available now: mitpress.mit.edu/978026255214... @gidoneshel.bsky.social
August 3, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Looking forward to this…
Reposted by Ulas Karakoc
Dear universities,
I am begging you to stop requiring letters of recommendation for master's programmes. You and I both know you don't read them, so stop asking for them.
Instead, have applicants list a name and get in touch if it's a borderline case.
Signed,
Everyone.
I am begging you to stop requiring letters of recommendation for master's programmes. You and I both know you don't read them, so stop asking for them.
Instead, have applicants list a name and get in touch if it's a borderline case.
Signed,
Everyone.
July 28, 2025 at 6:28 PM
Dear universities,
I am begging you to stop requiring letters of recommendation for master's programmes. You and I both know you don't read them, so stop asking for them.
Instead, have applicants list a name and get in touch if it's a borderline case.
Signed,
Everyone.
I am begging you to stop requiring letters of recommendation for master's programmes. You and I both know you don't read them, so stop asking for them.
Instead, have applicants list a name and get in touch if it's a borderline case.
Signed,
Everyone.
You break if you do not bend
one of my most cancelable climate takes is that i am incredibly pro-nuclear now
July 27, 2025 at 1:14 PM
You break if you do not bend
This pretty much defines all right-wing movements of the last decades. Turkey’s Erdogan is exception though. He built lots of roads. Not much else than roads, though.
July 26, 2025 at 6:04 PM
This pretty much defines all right-wing movements of the last decades. Turkey’s Erdogan is exception though. He built lots of roads. Not much else than roads, though.
Economic history has benefited from convergence to applied economics through better use of data.
Conversely, I hope, it also helps applied economics to focus on important problems - not butterfly effects that represent 0.000001 standard deviation of the outcome of interest.
Conversely, I hope, it also helps applied economics to focus on important problems - not butterfly effects that represent 0.000001 standard deviation of the outcome of interest.
🧵Economic History Transformed: What 25 Years of Data Reveal
1/ No longer just descriptive stats & British factories. It’s global, data-driven, and methodologically bold field. We analysed 25 years of publications in 5 top journals using NLP and network analysis.
Here’s what we found 👇
@voxeu.org
1/ No longer just descriptive stats & British factories. It’s global, data-driven, and methodologically bold field. We analysed 25 years of publications in 5 top journals using NLP and network analysis.
Here’s what we found 👇
@voxeu.org
July 21, 2025 at 11:32 AM
Economic history has benefited from convergence to applied economics through better use of data.
Conversely, I hope, it also helps applied economics to focus on important problems - not butterfly effects that represent 0.000001 standard deviation of the outcome of interest.
Conversely, I hope, it also helps applied economics to focus on important problems - not butterfly effects that represent 0.000001 standard deviation of the outcome of interest.
My amateurish characterization of the personalities in academia:
1. Researchers - Those who can smell good article ideas from three departments away. Lots of projects and grants. Some max quality, many max quantity (topic does not matter).
1. Researchers - Those who can smell good article ideas from three departments away. Lots of projects and grants. Some max quality, many max quantity (topic does not matter).
July 20, 2025 at 8:24 PM
My amateurish characterization of the personalities in academia:
1. Researchers - Those who can smell good article ideas from three departments away. Lots of projects and grants. Some max quality, many max quantity (topic does not matter).
1. Researchers - Those who can smell good article ideas from three departments away. Lots of projects and grants. Some max quality, many max quantity (topic does not matter).
“Academia has become a hamster wheel powered by prestige, productivity, and fear.”
After 20+ years of running at full speed in academia, I’m stepping into a new phase—less Bear, more Beef. A reflection on ambition, burnout, and what it means to let go of prestige to make room for purpose. Check out my new post on The Food Archive: shorturl.at/uyVsC
Beef or Bear? On Ambition, Academia, and the Art of Letting Go — The Food Archive
I’m sure many of you have been watching The Bear —the TV show that follows Carmen “Carmy” Berzatto, a brilliant young chef who returns home to Chicago to take over his late brother’s gritty sandwic...
shorturl.at
July 13, 2025 at 8:44 PM
“Academia has become a hamster wheel powered by prestige, productivity, and fear.”
Excellent thread.
1. Yesterday I wrote a thread about the dire warnings from food professionals on the state of supply chains. Comfortable folk might find it impossible to imagine an end to the current abundance. But we'd better start imagining it fast.
THIS thread is about solutions - false ones and sound ones.
THIS thread is about solutions - false ones and sound ones.
April 10, 2025 at 6:41 AM
Excellent thread.
Reposted by Ulas Karakoc
Today is publication day! I explain how agricultural inputs - which weren't even widely traded market goods 200 years ago - have become giant industries dominated by just a handful of transnational firms today.
mitpress.mit.edu/978026255170...
Many thanks to those who helped me along the way!
mitpress.mit.edu/978026255170...
Many thanks to those who helped me along the way!
February 18, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Today is publication day! I explain how agricultural inputs - which weren't even widely traded market goods 200 years ago - have become giant industries dominated by just a handful of transnational firms today.
mitpress.mit.edu/978026255170...
Many thanks to those who helped me along the way!
mitpress.mit.edu/978026255170...
Many thanks to those who helped me along the way!
Reposted by Ulas Karakoc
Your map’s legend can be turned into a histogram, helping your audience understand the distribution in addition to decoding the colours.
November 25, 2024 at 6:38 PM
Your map’s legend can be turned into a histogram, helping your audience understand the distribution in addition to decoding the colours.
Economic historians are modern saints.
New on the GPIH website: Anna Akasheva's dataset of prices for construction materials in Nizhny Novgorod, 1859-1917! #econsky #econhistory
February 17, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Economic historians are modern saints.
Dear editors, please do not desk-reject papers without a single substantive criticism.
What does “not enough” even mean?
Let the referees judge the quality and relevance.
What does “not enough” even mean?
Let the referees judge the quality and relevance.
February 10, 2025 at 11:34 AM
Dear editors, please do not desk-reject papers without a single substantive criticism.
What does “not enough” even mean?
Let the referees judge the quality and relevance.
What does “not enough” even mean?
Let the referees judge the quality and relevance.
Reposted by Ulas Karakoc
🎓 Join the World Food System Summer School 2025 at @ethzurich.bsky.social!🌻 Design ideas for sustainable food systems and engage in project-based learning, field trips, case studies, role-plays & creative reflection. Apply now! bit.ly/3EjJFmE #SustainableFood #ETHZurich #SummerSchool #WFSCEducation
January 31, 2025 at 9:01 AM
🎓 Join the World Food System Summer School 2025 at @ethzurich.bsky.social!🌻 Design ideas for sustainable food systems and engage in project-based learning, field trips, case studies, role-plays & creative reflection. Apply now! bit.ly/3EjJFmE #SustainableFood #ETHZurich #SummerSchool #WFSCEducation
Reposted by Ulas Karakoc
Excited to share gander by @simonpcouch.com, a fast, seamless LLM chat tool for RStudio and Positron! 🪿
It connects with your #RStats session to describe your code, data frames, and environment. Supports GPT-4o, Claude, ollama, and more.
Try it today: simonpcouch.github.io/gander/
It connects with your #RStats session to describe your code, data frames, and environment. Supports GPT-4o, Claude, ollama, and more.
Try it today: simonpcouch.github.io/gander/
High performance, low friction LLM chat for data scientists
The package introduces a high performance, low friction LLM chat experience for data scientists. ellmer chats are integrated directly into your RStudio and Positron sessions, automatically incorporati...
simonpcouch.github.io
January 28, 2025 at 3:21 PM
Excited to share gander by @simonpcouch.com, a fast, seamless LLM chat tool for RStudio and Positron! 🪿
It connects with your #RStats session to describe your code, data frames, and environment. Supports GPT-4o, Claude, ollama, and more.
Try it today: simonpcouch.github.io/gander/
It connects with your #RStats session to describe your code, data frames, and environment. Supports GPT-4o, Claude, ollama, and more.
Try it today: simonpcouch.github.io/gander/
Stats 101: absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence.
Last week we had @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social with us presenting his work on equivalence testing. Economists typically interpret null results as the absence of an effect. This is wrong. Proper testing is particularly important for robustness checks in IV & RDD settings www.econstor.eu/handle/10419...
January 25, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Stats 101: absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence.