Tobias Harris
@tobiasharris.bsky.social
Japanese politics analyst; author of The Iconoclast: Shinzō Abe and the New Japan; Chicago-born Cubs fan now living in DC; marathoner; RHP + IF ⚾
Substack: Observingjapan.substack.com.
Business: www.japanforesight.com
Substack: Observingjapan.substack.com.
Business: www.japanforesight.com
Pinned
Tobias Harris
@tobiasharris.bsky.social
· Oct 10
Kōmeitō quits the coalition
A guide for the perplexed
open.substack.com
Japanese politics was rocked on Friday as the Kōmeitō announced it would leave its coalition with the LDP after twenty-six years. To understand why this happened and what it means, I wrote a guide for the perplexed.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
It's almost like just saying the word "responsible" doesn't actually convince anyone that you're acting responsibly.
Japan’s 10-year bond yields at highest since global financial crisis on.ft.com/3M8nOCs
Japan’s 10-year bond yields at highest since global financial crisis
Bond prices fall amid concerns over the prime minister’s plan for a fiscal stimulus
on.ft.com
November 19, 2025 at 2:40 PM
It's almost like just saying the word "responsible" doesn't actually convince anyone that you're acting responsibly.
Reposted by Tobias Harris
Today’s Japan Daily Briefing is short but significant, as Takaichi and Ueda hold their first meeting and working-level talks in Beijing do little to defuse tensions.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Takaichi and Ueda talk as bond yields climb | Japan Daily Briefing
Prime minister and central banker meet as government charts macroeconomic course
open.substack.com
November 18, 2025 at 11:23 PM
Today’s Japan Daily Briefing is short but significant, as Takaichi and Ueda hold their first meeting and working-level talks in Beijing do little to defuse tensions.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
I'm kind of loving the English translation of Yoshida's memoirs. He's so catty about the different factions in GHQ (obviously I know the implications of his preferences but it's still funny).
November 19, 2025 at 12:44 AM
I'm kind of loving the English translation of Yoshida's memoirs. He's so catty about the different factions in GHQ (obviously I know the implications of his preferences but it's still funny).
Today’s Japan Daily Briefing is short but significant, as Takaichi and Ueda hold their first meeting and working-level talks in Beijing do little to defuse tensions.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Takaichi and Ueda talk as bond yields climb | Japan Daily Briefing
Prime minister and central banker meet as government charts macroeconomic course
open.substack.com
November 18, 2025 at 11:23 PM
Today’s Japan Daily Briefing is short but significant, as Takaichi and Ueda hold their first meeting and working-level talks in Beijing do little to defuse tensions.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Right-wing news outlet posts poll on right-wing social media site, gets overwhelmingly right-wing response.
www.sankei.com/article/2025...
www.sankei.com/article/2025...
「週刊フジ」のXアンケート「高市首相の国会答弁は問題なし、撤回するな」が93・5％
産経ニュースの1コーナー「週刊フジ」のX（旧ツイッター）アカウント「こちら『週刊フジ』です」は17日夕から18時間、高市早苗首相の「台湾有事」をめぐる国会答弁…
www.sankei.com
November 18, 2025 at 10:39 PM
Right-wing news outlet posts poll on right-wing social media site, gets overwhelmingly right-wing response.
www.sankei.com/article/2025...
www.sankei.com/article/2025...
Come on, how am I not supposed to find this headline funny?
Burger King deal is final piece in Goldman Sachs' Japan strategy
https://asia.nikkei.com/business/business-deals/burger-king-deal-is-final-piece-in-goldman-sachs-japan-strategy
https://asia.nikkei.com/business/business-deals/burger-king-deal-is-final-piece-in-goldman-sachs-japan-strategy
Burger King deal is final piece in Goldman Sachs' Japan strategy
Investment bank to open restaurants in rural areas for growth
asia.nikkei.com
November 18, 2025 at 8:56 PM
Come on, how am I not supposed to find this headline funny?
Willoughby was so reprehensible that Fellers was able to fly under the radar as the most vile member of the GHQ staff.
November 18, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Willoughby was so reprehensible that Fellers was able to fly under the radar as the most vile member of the GHQ staff.
Ah yes, I was just exchanging emails with noted Japan experts -- check notes -- Evan Callister and Devin Flowers.
Love it for Amazon that they apparently think all these women are the same person.
November 18, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Ah yes, I was just exchanging emails with noted Japan experts -- check notes -- Evan Callister and Devin Flowers.
Reposted by Tobias Harris
Love it for Amazon that they apparently think all these women are the same person.
November 18, 2025 at 11:12 AM
Love it for Amazon that they apparently think all these women are the same person.
I've updated my public opinion moving average. The numbers settled back into their previous level as new polls join the sample, diluting the impact of the outlier JNN poll.
Unadjusted Takaichi polling
APPROVE 67.63%
DISAPPROVE 15.25%
Adjusted for bias
APPROVE 70.13%
DISAPPROVE 17.9%
Unadjusted Takaichi polling
APPROVE 67.63%
DISAPPROVE 15.25%
Adjusted for bias
APPROVE 70.13%
DISAPPROVE 17.9%
November 18, 2025 at 4:50 AM
I've updated my public opinion moving average. The numbers settled back into their previous level as new polls join the sample, diluting the impact of the outlier JNN poll.
Unadjusted Takaichi polling
APPROVE 67.63%
DISAPPROVE 15.25%
Adjusted for bias
APPROVE 70.13%
DISAPPROVE 17.9%
Unadjusted Takaichi polling
APPROVE 67.63%
DISAPPROVE 15.25%
Adjusted for bias
APPROVE 70.13%
DISAPPROVE 17.9%
Reposted by Tobias Harris
In today’s Japan Daily Briefing, the Japanese government has dispatched a senior diplomat to Beijing as the Chinese government seeks to curb travel to Japan. Plus: the likely size of the Takaichi government’s supplemental budget continues to grow.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Tokyo seeks calm as Beijing applies pressure | Japan Daily Briefing
Senior diplomat heads to Beijing as Chinese government looks to curb travel to Japan
open.substack.com
November 17, 2025 at 10:29 PM
In today’s Japan Daily Briefing, the Japanese government has dispatched a senior diplomat to Beijing as the Chinese government seeks to curb travel to Japan. Plus: the likely size of the Takaichi government’s supplemental budget continues to grow.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
I don't think I had any idea that Mark Sanford was running for president in 2020. But looking at the dates of his campaign -- September to November 2019 -- his campaign coincided exactly with the period when I was cutting my manuscript from 160k to 120k words, so that scans.
November 18, 2025 at 3:10 AM
I don't think I had any idea that Mark Sanford was running for president in 2020. But looking at the dates of his campaign -- September to November 2019 -- his campaign coincided exactly with the period when I was cutting my manuscript from 160k to 120k words, so that scans.
In today’s Japan Daily Briefing, the Japanese government has dispatched a senior diplomat to Beijing as the Chinese government seeks to curb travel to Japan. Plus: the likely size of the Takaichi government’s supplemental budget continues to grow.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Tokyo seeks calm as Beijing applies pressure | Japan Daily Briefing
Senior diplomat heads to Beijing as Chinese government looks to curb travel to Japan
open.substack.com
November 17, 2025 at 10:29 PM
In today’s Japan Daily Briefing, the Japanese government has dispatched a senior diplomat to Beijing as the Chinese government seeks to curb travel to Japan. Plus: the likely size of the Takaichi government’s supplemental budget continues to grow.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Sure, why not. It's like Mad Libs.
BREAKING: Goldman Sachs in talks to buy Burger King Japan's operations
trib.al/vYzMGvG
trib.al/vYzMGvG
November 17, 2025 at 2:20 AM
Sure, why not. It's like Mad Libs.
Ruh roh.
Japan’s Economy Shrinks for First Time in Six Quarters Amid Tariff Impact
November 17, 2025 at 1:34 AM
Ruh roh.
The LDP, celebrating seventy years of suppressing their internal feuds just enough to run the country.
November 16, 2025 at 10:20 PM
The LDP, celebrating seventy years of suppressing their internal feuds just enough to run the country.
Reposted by Tobias Harris
FREE FOR ALL READERS: In a new Japan Daily Briefing, Japan and China continue to feud, while the Takaichi government ramps up the next steps in building Japan’s national security establishment. Plus, Takaichi's fiscal program takes shape.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Takaichi's ambitions continue to unfold | Japan Daily Briefing
Amidst China feud, the new prime minister prepares for national security changes
open.substack.com
November 15, 2025 at 12:07 PM
FREE FOR ALL READERS: In a new Japan Daily Briefing, Japan and China continue to feud, while the Takaichi government ramps up the next steps in building Japan’s national security establishment. Plus, Takaichi's fiscal program takes shape.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
FREE FOR ALL READERS: In a new Japan Daily Briefing, Japan and China continue to feud, while the Takaichi government ramps up the next steps in building Japan’s national security establishment. Plus, Takaichi's fiscal program takes shape.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Takaichi's ambitions continue to unfold | Japan Daily Briefing
Amidst China feud, the new prime minister prepares for national security changes
open.substack.com
November 15, 2025 at 12:07 PM
FREE FOR ALL READERS: In a new Japan Daily Briefing, Japan and China continue to feud, while the Takaichi government ramps up the next steps in building Japan’s national security establishment. Plus, Takaichi's fiscal program takes shape.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
One last Kokkai view for the road.
November 15, 2025 at 7:24 AM
One last Kokkai view for the road.
Getting Along in a G2 World
The Stockholm China Forum Comes to Seoul
open.substack.com
November 15, 2025 at 7:17 AM
This is the future that liberals want
November 15, 2025 at 12:58 AM
This is the future that liberals want
Reposted by Tobias Harris
Japan’s political landscape is shifting fast... so here’s a crash course! We talk w/ Japan Foresight's Tobias Harris (@tobiasharris.bsky.social) about Japan’s gov't, parties, voter trends, & more.
🎧 - krewe-of-japan.simplecast.com/episodes/cra...
🔗 - linktr.ee/kojpodcast
📺 - youtu.be/PGt1VkEa8NU
🎧 - krewe-of-japan.simplecast.com/episodes/cra...
🔗 - linktr.ee/kojpodcast
📺 - youtu.be/PGt1VkEa8NU
November 14, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Japan’s political landscape is shifting fast... so here’s a crash course! We talk w/ Japan Foresight's Tobias Harris (@tobiasharris.bsky.social) about Japan’s gov't, parties, voter trends, & more.
🎧 - krewe-of-japan.simplecast.com/episodes/cra...
🔗 - linktr.ee/kojpodcast
📺 - youtu.be/PGt1VkEa8NU
🎧 - krewe-of-japan.simplecast.com/episodes/cra...
🔗 - linktr.ee/kojpodcast
📺 - youtu.be/PGt1VkEa8NU
I've read thirty or so pages of this book and I think it's essential reading for anyone trying to understand current trends in Japanese politics.
Religious studies scholar Shimada Hiromi has a new book on Sanseito out this week
He details how Sanseito adopts tactics already proven effective by Komeito (which Shimada has studied for decades)
And by JCP and Reiwa (Furuya Tsunehira’s book from last month is also good on the Reiwa connection)
He details how Sanseito adopts tactics already proven effective by Komeito (which Shimada has studied for decades)
And by JCP and Reiwa (Furuya Tsunehira’s book from last month is also good on the Reiwa connection)
November 14, 2025 at 6:53 AM
I've read thirty or so pages of this book and I think it's essential reading for anyone trying to understand current trends in Japanese politics.