Mark Youngman
@threatologist.com
Open-source investigator specialising in Russian security issues. My newsletter unpacks major issues or storie from the world of Russian security — tracing the relationships, trends, and deeper meaning behind them.
www.threatologist.com/newsletter
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And here's its faithful representation of that photo!
I may be sticking with ChatGPT for this task...
I may be sticking with ChatGPT for this task...
November 12, 2025 at 12:12 PM
And here's its faithful representation of that photo!
I may be sticking with ChatGPT for this task...
I may be sticking with ChatGPT for this task...
Because ChatGPT has been winding me up and for many things people say Claude is better, I thought I'd give it a go.
Here's the picture that I gave it:
Here's the picture that I gave it:
November 12, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Because ChatGPT has been winding me up and for many things people say Claude is better, I thought I'd give it a go.
Here's the picture that I gave it:
Here's the picture that I gave it:
Sometimes, what AI produces is objectively hilarious.
I've been asking ChatGPT to produce illustrations from photos, according to a specified style. The output can be inconsistent and ChatGPT infuriating, but sometimes it works.
I've been asking ChatGPT to produce illustrations from photos, according to a specified style. The output can be inconsistent and ChatGPT infuriating, but sometimes it works.
November 12, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Sometimes, what AI produces is objectively hilarious.
I've been asking ChatGPT to produce illustrations from photos, according to a specified style. The output can be inconsistent and ChatGPT infuriating, but sometimes it works.
I've been asking ChatGPT to produce illustrations from photos, according to a specified style. The output can be inconsistent and ChatGPT infuriating, but sometimes it works.
The casualty figures were much higher in 2024 than 2025, but there’s an easy explanation for that: the major attacks in Dagestan in June 2024, which distort all the figures.
October 8, 2025 at 10:56 AM
The casualty figures were much higher in 2024 than 2025, but there’s an easy explanation for that: the major attacks in Dagestan in June 2024, which distort all the figures.
The bigger picture is arguably more revealing: The volume and geographic spread of incidents for the first nine months of 2025 is almost identical to the same period of 2024.
October 8, 2025 at 10:56 AM
The bigger picture is arguably more revealing: The volume and geographic spread of incidents for the first nine months of 2025 is almost identical to the same period of 2024.
The picture is similarly ambiguous when you look at the number of casualties caused by incidents: Here, the last quarter was much less violent than the one that came before it, but more violent than the same period last year. And overall casualty figures are low.
October 8, 2025 at 10:56 AM
The picture is similarly ambiguous when you look at the number of casualties caused by incidents: Here, the last quarter was much less violent than the one that came before it, but more violent than the same period last year. And overall casualty figures are low.
That, however, is offset by a factors such as interconnected incidents and a series of drone attacks (which are really political violence rather than terrorism) inflating the numbers.
October 8, 2025 at 10:56 AM
That, however, is offset by a factors such as interconnected incidents and a series of drone attacks (which are really political violence rather than terrorism) inflating the numbers.
Here's what the different scenarios look like when they're mapped out:
July 1, 2025 at 9:24 AM
Here's what the different scenarios look like when they're mapped out:
When Ramzan Kadyrov steps down as head of Chechnya, what happens?
I've been playing around with visualising the different scenarios, based around two key questions: Does the Kremlin maintain control of the succession process? And do other influential actors accept a claim to power?
I've been playing around with visualising the different scenarios, based around two key questions: Does the Kremlin maintain control of the succession process? And do other influential actors accept a claim to power?
May 20, 2025 at 11:32 AM
When Ramzan Kadyrov steps down as head of Chechnya, what happens?
I've been playing around with visualising the different scenarios, based around two key questions: Does the Kremlin maintain control of the succession process? And do other influential actors accept a claim to power?
I've been playing around with visualising the different scenarios, based around two key questions: Does the Kremlin maintain control of the succession process? And do other influential actors accept a claim to power?
This is seen mostly clearly in the number of incidents classified as successful detentions: 11 in the first quarter of 2025 compared to 16 in the same period of 2024 and 18 in the last quarter of 2024.
April 3, 2025 at 9:20 AM
This is seen mostly clearly in the number of incidents classified as successful detentions: 11 in the first quarter of 2025 compared to 16 in the same period of 2024 and 18 in the last quarter of 2024.
Political violence is down in the North Caucasus for Q1 2025 compared to both Q1 2024 and Q4 2024.
That’s true for both the number of terrorism-related incidents and their deadliness.
But the fall is not the result of declining insurgent activity.
That’s true for both the number of terrorism-related incidents and their deadliness.
But the fall is not the result of declining insurgent activity.
April 3, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Political violence is down in the North Caucasus for Q1 2025 compared to both Q1 2024 and Q4 2024.
That’s true for both the number of terrorism-related incidents and their deadliness.
But the fall is not the result of declining insurgent activity.
That’s true for both the number of terrorism-related incidents and their deadliness.
But the fall is not the result of declining insurgent activity.
The answer is a clear yes: The number of casualties is similarly down – from 17 in 2024 to 8 in 2025.
But does that mean all is rosy in the region?
But does that mean all is rosy in the region?
April 1, 2025 at 1:44 PM
The answer is a clear yes: The number of casualties is similarly down – from 17 in 2024 to 8 in 2025.
But does that mean all is rosy in the region?
But does that mean all is rosy in the region?
What does terrorism in the North Caucasus look like thus far in 2025?
Well, in simple terms, there has been a decline in the number of terrorism-related incidents: From 26 in Q1 2024 to 21 in Q1 2025.
Is that downward trend supported by casualty figures though?
Well, in simple terms, there has been a decline in the number of terrorism-related incidents: From 26 in Q1 2024 to 21 in Q1 2025.
Is that downward trend supported by casualty figures though?
April 1, 2025 at 1:44 PM
What does terrorism in the North Caucasus look like thus far in 2025?
Well, in simple terms, there has been a decline in the number of terrorism-related incidents: From 26 in Q1 2024 to 21 in Q1 2025.
Is that downward trend supported by casualty figures though?
Well, in simple terms, there has been a decline in the number of terrorism-related incidents: From 26 in Q1 2024 to 21 in Q1 2025.
Is that downward trend supported by casualty figures though?
Who is Khuseyn Mezhidov, one of the Chechen commanders potentially implicated in the Bucha massacre?
March 25, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Who is Khuseyn Mezhidov, one of the Chechen commanders potentially implicated in the Bucha massacre?
If you’re going to shake someone down, make sure they’ve not got friends in high places.
This, at least, is one of the lessons from the downfall of a Russian mercenary group.
This, at least, is one of the lessons from the downfall of a Russian mercenary group.
March 5, 2025 at 2:09 PM
If you’re going to shake someone down, make sure they’ve not got friends in high places.
This, at least, is one of the lessons from the downfall of a Russian mercenary group.
This, at least, is one of the lessons from the downfall of a Russian mercenary group.
What raccoons can tell us about Russia’s violent entrepreneurs.
The history of ENOT Corp mirrors the evolution of Russia’s mercenaries. 🧵
The history of ENOT Corp mirrors the evolution of Russia’s mercenaries. 🧵
March 4, 2025 at 1:39 PM
What raccoons can tell us about Russia’s violent entrepreneurs.
The history of ENOT Corp mirrors the evolution of Russia’s mercenaries. 🧵
The history of ENOT Corp mirrors the evolution of Russia’s mercenaries. 🧵
Captchas just get more and more complicated...
February 27, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Captchas just get more and more complicated...
Lady Macbeth exits stage left
Ayshat Kadyrova, the daughter of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrova, has announced that she is quitting as Chechen deputy prime minister, a role she has occupied since October 2023.
Ayshat Kadyrova, the daughter of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrova, has announced that she is quitting as Chechen deputy prime minister, a role she has occupied since October 2023.
February 27, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Lady Macbeth exits stage left
Ayshat Kadyrova, the daughter of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrova, has announced that she is quitting as Chechen deputy prime minister, a role she has occupied since October 2023.
Ayshat Kadyrova, the daughter of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrova, has announced that she is quitting as Chechen deputy prime minister, a role she has occupied since October 2023.
I was wrong, btw: the casualty figures aren't exactly in line with population. North Ossetia is suffering much greater losses than the other federal subjects of the North Caucasus, while Chechnya and Ingushetia are relatively low. Details and discussion in Friday's newsletter.
February 26, 2025 at 3:43 PM
I was wrong, btw: the casualty figures aren't exactly in line with population. North Ossetia is suffering much greater losses than the other federal subjects of the North Caucasus, while Chechnya and Ingushetia are relatively low. Details and discussion in Friday's newsletter.
The best* book ever written on the Caucasus Emirate’s ideology is now available for pre-order.
The Caucasus Emirate: Ideology, identity and insurgency in Russia’s North Caucasus (Manchester University Press)
amzn.eu/d/6QrSQ3h
* and only
The Caucasus Emirate: Ideology, identity and insurgency in Russia’s North Caucasus (Manchester University Press)
amzn.eu/d/6QrSQ3h
* and only
February 22, 2025 at 7:23 PM
The best* book ever written on the Caucasus Emirate’s ideology is now available for pre-order.
The Caucasus Emirate: Ideology, identity and insurgency in Russia’s North Caucasus (Manchester University Press)
amzn.eu/d/6QrSQ3h
* and only
The Caucasus Emirate: Ideology, identity and insurgency in Russia’s North Caucasus (Manchester University Press)
amzn.eu/d/6QrSQ3h
* and only
Do you want to keep up-to-date on what Russian groups are doing in Africa?
Then sign up to Threat Monitor, the free newsletter that helps you stay ahead without information overload.
www.threatologist.com/newsletter
Then sign up to Threat Monitor, the free newsletter that helps you stay ahead without information overload.
www.threatologist.com/newsletter
February 18, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Do you want to keep up-to-date on what Russian groups are doing in Africa?
Then sign up to Threat Monitor, the free newsletter that helps you stay ahead without information overload.
www.threatologist.com/newsletter
Then sign up to Threat Monitor, the free newsletter that helps you stay ahead without information overload.
www.threatologist.com/newsletter
Where are Russian groups likely to appear in the future?
February 18, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Where are Russian groups likely to appear in the future?
But hiring states are not always happy:
February 18, 2025 at 1:48 PM
But hiring states are not always happy:
Some hiring states are positive in their assessment of Russian groups:
February 18, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Some hiring states are positive in their assessment of Russian groups:
There are also often early indicators that states could welcome Russian PMCs:
February 18, 2025 at 1:48 PM
There are also often early indicators that states could welcome Russian PMCs: