Sam Stovall
@stovallcfra.bsky.social
U.S.Equality strategist with @cfraresearch Equity Research and fund business and author of the Seven Rules of Wall Street.Disclosures: bit.ly/2dxrxph
#FedChairPowell highlighted the unknown effects of #tariffs, which are causing investor concern. We expect 2025 #GDP growth above 2.0% and #inflation to ease, leading to possible #RateCuts. #SP500 EPS growth is projected to be over 9%, indicating a slower upward market trend.
March 29, 2025 at 7:37 PM
#FedChairPowell highlighted the unknown effects of #tariffs, which are causing investor concern. We expect 2025 #GDP growth above 2.0% and #inflation to ease, leading to possible #RateCuts. #SP500 EPS growth is projected to be over 9%, indicating a slower upward market trend.
Dip-buying investors recall Baron Rothschild’s quote, “The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.” However, after the #SP500's two consecutive years of over 25% returns, a 10% pullback hardly qualifies as a #bloodbath.
March 29, 2025 at 7:34 PM
Dip-buying investors recall Baron Rothschild’s quote, “The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.” However, after the #SP500's two consecutive years of over 25% returns, a 10% pullback hardly qualifies as a #bloodbath.
History hints (but does not guarantee) that quick⬇️ below 10% often lead to: 1) shallower avg ⬇️ 2) shorter durations for the total ⬇️& 3) quicker recoveries. However, the primary challenge remains the ongoing #tariff dispute, which adds uncertainty to both the⬇️& recovery.
March 29, 2025 at 7:30 PM
History hints (but does not guarantee) that quick⬇️ below 10% often lead to: 1) shallower avg ⬇️ 2) shorter durations for the total ⬇️& 3) quicker recoveries. However, the primary challenge remains the ongoing #tariff dispute, which adds uncertainty to both the⬇️& recovery.
In response to these concerns, the #SP500 1st entered a pullback, ⬇️over 5% on March 4. It then⬇️into #correction territory by surpassing a 10% drop on March 13, just 22 days after hitting a new high, compared to the avg of 80 days for past selloffs over 10% since World War II.
March 29, 2025 at 7:29 PM
In response to these concerns, the #SP500 1st entered a pullback, ⬇️over 5% on March 4. It then⬇️into #correction territory by surpassing a 10% drop on March 13, just 22 days after hitting a new high, compared to the avg of 80 days for past selloffs over 10% since World War II.
On Friday, the #SP500 saw a counter-trend move, likely due to a near-term oversold condition, as investors stepped in to buy the dip despite a #WeakerThanExpected jobs report. Time of this cautious sentiment will be how quickly global trade concerns & recession threats subside.
March 15, 2025 at 10:30 AM
On Friday, the #SP500 saw a counter-trend move, likely due to a near-term oversold condition, as investors stepped in to buy the dip despite a #WeakerThanExpected jobs report. Time of this cautious sentiment will be how quickly global trade concerns & recession threats subside.
.@cfraresearch see this retrenchment as a #healthy sign for the #BullMarket & expect a shift back to #GrowthSectors as the year unfolds. With February behind us, the seasonal recovery brings #optimism for investors.
March 9, 2025 at 3:55 AM
.@cfraresearch see this retrenchment as a #healthy sign for the #BullMarket & expect a shift back to #GrowthSectors as the year unfolds. With February behind us, the seasonal recovery brings #optimism for investors.
As we enter the month named after the Roman god of war, #GrowthSectors like the #SP500GrowthIndex, #CommServices, #ConsumerDiscretionary, & #Industrials are struggling, trading below their 10- & 40-week moving avgs. In contrast, #DefensiveSectors are outperforming MTD & YTD.
March 9, 2025 at 3:54 AM
As we enter the month named after the Roman god of war, #GrowthSectors like the #SP500GrowthIndex, #CommServices, #ConsumerDiscretionary, & #Industrials are struggling, trading below their 10- & 40-week moving avgs. In contrast, #DefensiveSectors are outperforming MTD & YTD.
Last week’s sell-off saw rtrns among sectors reflecting patterns frm the 15 #SP500⬇️of 10% or more since 1990. It’s still early to determine if the #SP500 is entering a #pullback (5.0% to 9.9%⬇️) or a #correction (10.0% to 19.9%), sector & bond performance can provide insights.
February 27, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Last week’s sell-off saw rtrns among sectors reflecting patterns frm the 15 #SP500⬇️of 10% or more since 1990. It’s still early to determine if the #SP500 is entering a #pullback (5.0% to 9.9%⬇️) or a #correction (10.0% to 19.9%), sector & bond performance can provide insights.
The cyclical sectors like #ConsumerDiscretionary, #Industrials, & #Financials fell ⬇️as investors grew concerned about the economy's health & the effects of steep #tariffs. Last week's performance resembled fainting goats reacting to a sudden shock.
February 27, 2025 at 6:37 PM
The cyclical sectors like #ConsumerDiscretionary, #Industrials, & #Financials fell ⬇️as investors grew concerned about the economy's health & the effects of steep #tariffs. Last week's performance resembled fainting goats reacting to a sudden shock.
In the last 2 days of last week, the #SP500⬇️2.1% due to concerns over #ConsumerConfidence, #Earnings, & #Inflation. However, #ConsumerStaples, #HealthCare, & #utilities sectors performed well, as #demand for their products typically remains #stable in good and bad times.
February 27, 2025 at 6:35 PM
In the last 2 days of last week, the #SP500⬇️2.1% due to concerns over #ConsumerConfidence, #Earnings, & #Inflation. However, #ConsumerStaples, #HealthCare, & #utilities sectors performed well, as #demand for their products typically remains #stable in good and bad times.
4) Investors have concluded that #StockPrices can still #rise this year, absent rate cuts & P/E multiple expansion since earnings are forecasted to post double-digit gains in 2025 & 2026.
February 19, 2025 at 3:45 PM
4) Investors have concluded that #StockPrices can still #rise this year, absent rate cuts & P/E multiple expansion since earnings are forecasted to post double-digit gains in 2025 & 2026.
3) The treasure trove of #tariffs, imposed and then postponed, have caused the markets to conclude that tariffs remain more rhetoric than reality.
February 19, 2025 at 3:44 PM
3) The treasure trove of #tariffs, imposed and then postponed, have caused the markets to conclude that tariffs remain more rhetoric than reality.
2) Recent economic data continue to support the #FederalReserve's (Fed) “no hurry to cut” stance. However, Fed Chair #Powell’s testimony before #Congress suggested that #RateCuts are still the Fed’s preferred scenario and remain a possibility.
February 19, 2025 at 3:44 PM
2) Recent economic data continue to support the #FederalReserve's (Fed) “no hurry to cut” stance. However, Fed Chair #Powell’s testimony before #Congress suggested that #RateCuts are still the Fed’s preferred scenario and remain a possibility.
For example, 1) a hotter-than-expected reading for the Jan #ConsumerPriceIndex was met by a more tame #ProducerPriceIndex, which allowed investors to expect a favorable #PersonalConsumptionExpenditure reading later this month.
February 19, 2025 at 3:42 PM
For example, 1) a hotter-than-expected reading for the Jan #ConsumerPriceIndex was met by a more tame #ProducerPriceIndex, which allowed investors to expect a favorable #PersonalConsumptionExpenditure reading later this month.
The #SP500 disappointed investors this week, continuing its trend of➖rtrns in Feb. A⬇️this month doesn’t usually signal a failing year, as the index often⬆️after a Feb drop. When Feb follows a Jan gain, the #SP500 has ended the yr⬆️97% of the time, an average growth of over 20%.
February 13, 2025 at 3:05 AM
Earnings miss from $GOOGL & $AMZN & Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report⬆️#inflation concerns & led to a sharp selloff. Q4 2024 EPS forecasts now predict a 13.7%⬆️up from the 8.7% projection, per #SPCapitalIQ. We also anticipate two 25 basis point rate cuts in the 2nd & 4th Qtrs.
February 13, 2025 at 3:04 AM
Earnings miss from $GOOGL & $AMZN & Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report⬆️#inflation concerns & led to a sharp selloff. Q4 2024 EPS forecasts now predict a 13.7%⬆️up from the 8.7% projection, per #SPCapitalIQ. We also anticipate two 25 basis point rate cuts in the 2nd & 4th Qtrs.
46 stocks have favorable investment rankings (CFRA 4-STARS or 5-STARS), according to @cfraresearch. Combining fundamentals w/technicals, a baker’s dozen of these 46 also have #PowerRatings above 90, along w/favorable short- & intermediate-term trends, according to @LowryResearch.
January 30, 2025 at 12:23 PM
46 stocks have favorable investment rankings (CFRA 4-STARS or 5-STARS), according to @cfraresearch. Combining fundamentals w/technicals, a baker’s dozen of these 46 also have #PowerRatings above 90, along w/favorable short- & intermediate-term trends, according to @LowryResearch.
This week, 98 #SP500 companies are reporting Q4 earnings, with the ⬆️ number in #Industrials, #Financials, & #InformationTechnology. The reporting companies represent the ⬆️sector weightings for #Energy, #ConsumerDiscretionary, & #Industrials.
January 30, 2025 at 12:22 PM
This week, 98 #SP500 companies are reporting Q4 earnings, with the ⬆️ number in #Industrials, #Financials, & #InformationTechnology. The reporting companies represent the ⬆️sector weightings for #Energy, #ConsumerDiscretionary, & #Industrials.