Stephen Semler
@stephensemler.bsky.social
Policy analyst/advisor. Newsletter: stephensemler.com
Reposted by Stephen Semler
If the political opposition doesn’t put these ICE & CBP institutional criminals in prison, annihilate their budgets, purge the datasets and repeal their authorities, this will keep happening. And that opposition will reveal itself as a false, controlled opposition that is no less predatory on people
November 9, 2025 at 2:40 PM
If the political opposition doesn’t put these ICE & CBP institutional criminals in prison, annihilate their budgets, purge the datasets and repeal their authorities, this will keep happening. And that opposition will reveal itself as a false, controlled opposition that is no less predatory on people
Reposted by Stephen Semler
and if I'm too left to be reliable on this, maybe you'll believe those wild radicals at... military dot com.
Border Patrol Hiring Spree Offers Lessons as Another Immigration Agency Embarks on Massive Growth
Immigration and Customs Enforcement plans to hire 10,000 employees over five years, echoing a Border Patrol expansion in the 2000s.
www.military.com
November 8, 2025 at 11:11 PM
and if I'm too left to be reliable on this, maybe you'll believe those wild radicals at... military dot com.
Reposted by Stephen Semler
one underrated knock on of all this money flowing is how much addition harm underscreened agents will almost invariably do, even if not under direct fash orders. There's no shortage of evidence from e.g. Miami in the 90s or CBP in the 2000s that hiring surges lead to more corruption and misconduct.
November 8, 2025 at 11:05 PM
one underrated knock on of all this money flowing is how much addition harm underscreened agents will almost invariably do, even if not under direct fash orders. There's no shortage of evidence from e.g. Miami in the 90s or CBP in the 2000s that hiring surges lead to more corruption and misconduct.
Reposted by Stephen Semler
It's a nice gesture to help be his cleanup crew, but that's not what Stancil has been saying.
November 9, 2025 at 3:03 PM
It's a nice gesture to help be his cleanup crew, but that's not what Stancil has been saying.
Reposted by Stephen Semler
This is white upper middle class privilege at work. It's arrogant & dismissive AF. People resented the hell out of it from the Biden administration, & he did the best he could. GOP blocked him every turn, helped by corporate media & pundits. Pay attention to Mamdani's campaign. He gets it. He IS it
November 9, 2025 at 3:00 PM
This is white upper middle class privilege at work. It's arrogant & dismissive AF. People resented the hell out of it from the Biden administration, & he did the best he could. GOP blocked him every turn, helped by corporate media & pundits. Pay attention to Mamdani's campaign. He gets it. He IS it
Reposted by Stephen Semler
I don't use liberal as a pejorative. I am one. Until they LISTEN & consider people's feelings valid, they'll lose, especially among blue-collar white workers & in rural areas. Minorities don't like it, but they know the risk of letting GOP come into power, & we're all seeing it now.
November 9, 2025 at 3:00 PM
I don't use liberal as a pejorative. I am one. Until they LISTEN & consider people's feelings valid, they'll lose, especially among blue-collar white workers & in rural areas. Minorities don't like it, but they know the risk of letting GOP come into power, & we're all seeing it now.
Reposted by Stephen Semler
It's a fallacy to base an argument on one point. Reality: a culmination of factors left people squeezed, esp on unavoidable expenses like child care & rent. Many liberal Democrats have no idea how many people they alienate with this attitude toward what voters PLAINLY tell them they're voting about.
November 9, 2025 at 3:00 PM
It's a fallacy to base an argument on one point. Reality: a culmination of factors left people squeezed, esp on unavoidable expenses like child care & rent. Many liberal Democrats have no idea how many people they alienate with this attitude toward what voters PLAINLY tell them they're voting about.
Reposted by Stephen Semler
🧵
That's narrowing to semantic the full claim he's made ad nauseum that people voted on imaginary vibes. In Covid people got help. Those supports went away as prices went up, esp on big ticket items like rent & child care. Results were GLOBAL. EVERY election held that year went against incumbents.
That's narrowing to semantic the full claim he's made ad nauseum that people voted on imaginary vibes. In Covid people got help. Those supports went away as prices went up, esp on big ticket items like rent & child care. Results were GLOBAL. EVERY election held that year went against incumbents.
November 9, 2025 at 3:00 PM
🧵
That's narrowing to semantic the full claim he's made ad nauseum that people voted on imaginary vibes. In Covid people got help. Those supports went away as prices went up, esp on big ticket items like rent & child care. Results were GLOBAL. EVERY election held that year went against incumbents.
That's narrowing to semantic the full claim he's made ad nauseum that people voted on imaginary vibes. In Covid people got help. Those supports went away as prices went up, esp on big ticket items like rent & child care. Results were GLOBAL. EVERY election held that year went against incumbents.
Reposted by Stephen Semler
The ICE budget is higher than all but about 15 militaries worldwide, and we’re seeing what kind of country that gives us.
www.stephensemler.com/p/ice-budget...
www.stephensemler.com/p/ice-budget...
November 8, 2025 at 10:37 PM
The ICE budget is higher than all but about 15 militaries worldwide, and we’re seeing what kind of country that gives us.
www.stephensemler.com/p/ice-budget...
www.stephensemler.com/p/ice-budget...
Reposted by Stephen Semler
Reposted by Stephen Semler
2023 was when we stopped feeding kids in schools.
2021 was when we started, and had the monthly expanded eitc, and continuous medicaid enrollment. Look at how much having those three things helped just in this one graph.
Then they went away.
2021 was when we started, and had the monthly expanded eitc, and continuous medicaid enrollment. Look at how much having those three things helped just in this one graph.
Then they went away.
USDA hasn’t released its data for 2024 yet, but the number of people experiencing food insecurity almost certainly increased again.
And will increase yet again in 2025, which is why Trump canceled the food security reports after this year.
www.stephensemler.com/p/a-couple-c...
And will increase yet again in 2025, which is why Trump canceled the food security reports after this year.
www.stephensemler.com/p/a-couple-c...
November 8, 2025 at 10:30 PM
2023 was when we stopped feeding kids in schools.
2021 was when we started, and had the monthly expanded eitc, and continuous medicaid enrollment. Look at how much having those three things helped just in this one graph.
Then they went away.
2021 was when we started, and had the monthly expanded eitc, and continuous medicaid enrollment. Look at how much having those three things helped just in this one graph.
Then they went away.
The ICE budget is higher than all but about 15 militaries worldwide, and we’re seeing what kind of country that gives us.
www.stephensemler.com/p/ice-budget...
www.stephensemler.com/p/ice-budget...
November 8, 2025 at 10:37 PM
The ICE budget is higher than all but about 15 militaries worldwide, and we’re seeing what kind of country that gives us.
www.stephensemler.com/p/ice-budget...
www.stephensemler.com/p/ice-budget...
Reposted by Stephen Semler
USDA hasn’t released its data for 2024 yet, but the number of people experiencing food insecurity almost certainly increased again.
And will increase yet again in 2025, which is why Trump canceled the food security reports after this year.
www.stephensemler.com/p/a-couple-c...
And will increase yet again in 2025, which is why Trump canceled the food security reports after this year.
www.stephensemler.com/p/a-couple-c...
November 8, 2025 at 9:07 PM
USDA hasn’t released its data for 2024 yet, but the number of people experiencing food insecurity almost certainly increased again.
And will increase yet again in 2025, which is why Trump canceled the food security reports after this year.
www.stephensemler.com/p/a-couple-c...
And will increase yet again in 2025, which is why Trump canceled the food security reports after this year.
www.stephensemler.com/p/a-couple-c...
Reposted by Stephen Semler
"[T]his is not just a secret war, but a secret unauthorized war. Or, in reality, a make-believe war, because most of these groups we probably couldn’t even be in a war with,” said @bcfinucane.bsky.social about US claims it is in armed conflict with 24 cartel groups
theintercept.com/2025/11/07/t...
theintercept.com/2025/11/07/t...
Trump Has a Secret List of 24 “Designated Terrorist Organizations.” We Got Some of the Names.
The U.S. claims it is engaged in “armed conflict” with Tren de Aragua, Ejército de Liberación Nacional, and Cártel de los Soles, among others.
theintercept.com
November 8, 2025 at 2:07 PM
"[T]his is not just a secret war, but a secret unauthorized war. Or, in reality, a make-believe war, because most of these groups we probably couldn’t even be in a war with,” said @bcfinucane.bsky.social about US claims it is in armed conflict with 24 cartel groups
theintercept.com/2025/11/07/t...
theintercept.com/2025/11/07/t...
Trump might be too dumb or checked out to listen, but this is sound advice from GOP lawmakers. They watched voters punish Biden (and Dems broadly) for prioritizing a dogshit foreign policy over domestic needs. Now they're watching Trump do the same thing and voters respond the same way.
November 8, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Trump might be too dumb or checked out to listen, but this is sound advice from GOP lawmakers. They watched voters punish Biden (and Dems broadly) for prioritizing a dogshit foreign policy over domestic needs. Now they're watching Trump do the same thing and voters respond the same way.
Reposted by Stephen Semler
The data point that singularly debunks everything he's so obsessively wedded to arguing is how close so many "average" people are to a catastrophic financial emergency based on what they have left over at the end of every month. Small changes that close to the edge make huge differences. It's math.
November 8, 2025 at 9:43 PM
The data point that singularly debunks everything he's so obsessively wedded to arguing is how close so many "average" people are to a catastrophic financial emergency based on what they have left over at the end of every month. Small changes that close to the edge make huge differences. It's math.
Reposted by Stephen Semler
Poverty increasing hurt Dems, but economic insecurity increasing at every level also hurt Dems
November 8, 2025 at 9:20 PM
Poverty increasing hurt Dems, but economic insecurity increasing at every level also hurt Dems
Reposted by Stephen Semler
There are 41.7 million people on SNAP.
There are 47.4 million living in food insecure households.
Only a third of the country lives comfortably financially, according to Federal Reserve data.
There are 47.4 million living in food insecure households.
Only a third of the country lives comfortably financially, according to Federal Reserve data.
Sadly, I think there is not a lot of evidence supporting the idea that American voters are motivated by the relative improvement or worsening of the circumstances of the very poorest among us
I love how Will Stancil repeatedly makes clear that he hasn’t gone to or volunteered at a food bank over the last 3 years, or even been near one.
Wait, hold on: Will, do you know what a food bank is
Wait, hold on: Will, do you know what a food bank is
November 8, 2025 at 9:14 PM
There are 41.7 million people on SNAP.
There are 47.4 million living in food insecure households.
Only a third of the country lives comfortably financially, according to Federal Reserve data.
There are 47.4 million living in food insecure households.
Only a third of the country lives comfortably financially, according to Federal Reserve data.
Reposted by Stephen Semler
Quick, someone cover @whstancil.bsky.social’s eyes!
USDA hasn’t released its data for 2024 yet, but the number of people experiencing food insecurity almost certainly increased again.
And will increase yet again in 2025, which is why Trump canceled the food security reports after this year.
www.stephensemler.com/p/a-couple-c...
And will increase yet again in 2025, which is why Trump canceled the food security reports after this year.
www.stephensemler.com/p/a-couple-c...
November 8, 2025 at 9:50 PM
Quick, someone cover @whstancil.bsky.social’s eyes!
Reposted by Stephen Semler
Any response to the data I presented that proved your point wrong?
November 8, 2025 at 9:50 PM
Any response to the data I presented that proved your point wrong?
Reposted by Stephen Semler
Will is arguing that the very poorest among us don’t matter, which is abhorrent, but he’s also wrong in that it’s not just the very poorest who are struggling.
www.stephensemler.com/p/americans-...
www.stephensemler.com/p/americans-...
November 8, 2025 at 9:33 PM
Will is arguing that the very poorest among us don’t matter, which is abhorrent, but he’s also wrong in that it’s not just the very poorest who are struggling.
www.stephensemler.com/p/americans-...
www.stephensemler.com/p/americans-...
November 8, 2025 at 9:31 PM
Will is arguing that the very poorest among us don’t matter, which is abhorrent, but he’s also wrong in that it’s not just the very poorest who are struggling.
www.stephensemler.com/p/americans-...
www.stephensemler.com/p/americans-...
Reposted by Stephen Semler
His subthread of this post pretty much proves your point.
November 8, 2025 at 9:05 PM
His subthread of this post pretty much proves your point.
Reposted by Stephen Semler
🧵
USDA hasn’t released its data for 2024 yet, but the number of people experiencing food insecurity almost certainly increased again.
And will increase yet again in 2025, which is why Trump canceled the food security reports after this year.
www.stephensemler.com/p/a-couple-c...
And will increase yet again in 2025, which is why Trump canceled the food security reports after this year.
www.stephensemler.com/p/a-couple-c...
November 8, 2025 at 9:15 PM
🧵
Reposted by Stephen Semler
I hear you, and I encourage you not inadvertently to erase those who do from your conception and presentation of the electorate as a whole.
28.6 million adults of voting age receive snap benefits, and millions more are part of families whose other members do.
28.6 million adults of voting age receive snap benefits, and millions more are part of families whose other members do.
November 8, 2025 at 7:48 PM
I hear you, and I encourage you not inadvertently to erase those who do from your conception and presentation of the electorate as a whole.
28.6 million adults of voting age receive snap benefits, and millions more are part of families whose other members do.
28.6 million adults of voting age receive snap benefits, and millions more are part of families whose other members do.