Solid Evidence
@solidevidence.bsky.social
Molecular virologist, sewage sage and wastewater wizard.
Professor at University of Missouri, School of Medicine
Professor at University of Missouri, School of Medicine
What are the defining differences between the two again.?
November 27, 2025 at 4:14 AM
What are the defining differences between the two again.?
Here's the evidence. This is the RBD. BA.3.2 is the one without the deletion.
November 26, 2025 at 11:23 PM
Here's the evidence. This is the RBD. BA.3.2 is the one without the deletion.
Only what I've collected. It's really perplexing that it isn't even on respiratory panels, which includes all of the other mild respiratory pathogens.
November 25, 2025 at 6:59 PM
Only what I've collected. It's really perplexing that it isn't even on respiratory panels, which includes all of the other mild respiratory pathogens.
To be honest, I don't know.
November 24, 2025 at 8:11 PM
To be honest, I don't know.
I’ll update when we know more, or you can follow our dashboard with data we collect with @SecureBio.
The truth comes out in the waste.
lungfish-science.github.io/wastewater-d...
14/14
The truth comes out in the waste.
lungfish-science.github.io/wastewater-d...
14/14
𓆞 lung.fish Data Explorer
lungfish-science.github.io
November 23, 2025 at 8:07 PM
I’ll update when we know more, or you can follow our dashboard with data we collect with @SecureBio.
The truth comes out in the waste.
lungfish-science.github.io/wastewater-d...
14/14
The truth comes out in the waste.
lungfish-science.github.io/wastewater-d...
14/14
Overall, it’s early days, but it’s looking likely it will be a worse than average flu season driven by the more severe form of the virus (H3N2-K) and a milder version that will probably seem like the common cold (FluC).
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November 23, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Overall, it’s early days, but it’s looking likely it will be a worse than average flu season driven by the more severe form of the virus (H3N2-K) and a milder version that will probably seem like the common cold (FluC).
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This season might be different. In the last week of sampling we saw FluC in 10 different sewersheds. Cumulatively, there was more FluC than all of the FluAs and FluB put together.
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November 23, 2025 at 8:07 PM
This season might be different. In the last week of sampling we saw FluC in 10 different sewersheds. Cumulatively, there was more FluC than all of the FluAs and FluB put together.
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We’ve seen blips of FluC every here and there, but it’s been pretty rare other than the 2023/24 outbreak in Columbia.
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November 23, 2025 at 8:07 PM
We’ve seen blips of FluC every here and there, but it’s been pretty rare other than the 2023/24 outbreak in Columbia.
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2 seasons ago (when we were only sampling in Columbia), FluC was the dominant influenza, but we never knew what to make of it.
Last season it wasn’t present at all.
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Last season it wasn’t present at all.
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November 23, 2025 at 8:07 PM
2 seasons ago (when we were only sampling in Columbia), FluC was the dominant influenza, but we never knew what to make of it.
Last season it wasn’t present at all.
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Last season it wasn’t present at all.
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Influenza C is the mildest of the flu strains. It isn’t in the vaccine, it isn’t included in influenza reports, and it’s not even included in respiratory panels.
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November 23, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Influenza C is the mildest of the flu strains. It isn’t in the vaccine, it isn’t included in influenza reports, and it’s not even included in respiratory panels.
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So it’s looking like there will likely be an early flu season, and it will likely be dominated by H3N2-K.
But there is another influenza that I think might have a big season.
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But there is another influenza that I think might have a big season.
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November 23, 2025 at 8:07 PM
So it’s looking like there will likely be an early flu season, and it will likely be dominated by H3N2-K.
But there is another influenza that I think might have a big season.
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But there is another influenza that I think might have a big season.
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What about wastewater. We’ve seen blips of H1N1, but the only significant Flu spike we’ve seen was entirely H3N2 subclade K. It was kind of early to see a spike like that.
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November 23, 2025 at 8:07 PM
What about wastewater. We’ve seen blips of H1N1, but the only significant Flu spike we’ve seen was entirely H3N2 subclade K. It was kind of early to see a spike like that.
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H1N1, H3N2, and FluB are all in the flu vaccines, but the H3N1 is a bit off from subclade K. I’m sure there will be some protection, but less than ideal.
There haven’t been many cases in the Northern Hemisphere so far, but what we’ve seen has been dominated by K.
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There haven’t been many cases in the Northern Hemisphere so far, but what we’ve seen has been dominated by K.
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November 23, 2025 at 8:07 PM
H1N1, H3N2, and FluB are all in the flu vaccines, but the H3N1 is a bit off from subclade K. I’m sure there will be some protection, but less than ideal.
There haven’t been many cases in the Northern Hemisphere so far, but what we’ve seen has been dominated by K.
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There haven’t been many cases in the Northern Hemisphere so far, but what we’ve seen has been dominated by K.
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So what about this season? If you haven’t heard, there is a new clade of H3N2 that looks like it might be trouble.
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www.cnn.com/2025/11/18/h...
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www.cnn.com/2025/11/18/h...
A new virus variant and lagging vaccinations may mean the US is in for a severe flu season | CNN
The United States may be heading into its second severe flu season in a row, driven by a mutated strain called subclade K that’s behind early surges in the United Kingdom, Canada and Japan.
www.cnn.com
November 23, 2025 at 8:07 PM
So what about this season? If you haven’t heard, there is a new clade of H3N2 that looks like it might be trouble.
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www.cnn.com/2025/11/18/h...
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www.cnn.com/2025/11/18/h...
What we saw in wastewater was a little different. We saw much more H1N1 than H3N2, but this could reflect it being less severe (and less likely to be tested), but I don’t know for sure if this is the reason.
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November 23, 2025 at 8:07 PM
What we saw in wastewater was a little different. We saw much more H1N1 than H3N2, but this could reflect it being less severe (and less likely to be tested), but I don’t know for sure if this is the reason.
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Last season, there was a pretty even split between H1N1 and H3N2, with a little bit of FluB late in the season. At least according to CDC patient data.
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November 23, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Last season, there was a pretty even split between H1N1 and H3N2, with a little bit of FluB late in the season. At least according to CDC patient data.
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Background. The 4 main kinds of influenza circulating among humans (in order of severity) are:
FluA H3N2
FluA H1N1
FluB
FluC (many don’t know this one)
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FluA H3N2
FluA H1N1
FluB
FluC (many don’t know this one)
2/
November 23, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Background. The 4 main kinds of influenza circulating among humans (in order of severity) are:
FluA H3N2
FluA H1N1
FluB
FluC (many don’t know this one)
2/
FluA H3N2
FluA H1N1
FluB
FluC (many don’t know this one)
2/
Anyway, great preprint if you want to check it out. Those structural biologists and biochemists really know their shit.
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www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
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www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
www.medrxiv.org
November 21, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Anyway, great preprint if you want to check it out. Those structural biologists and biochemists really know their shit.
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www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
9/
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
Fortunately, the NJ variant fizzled over a year ago and did not enter circulation, but there are still cryptics that we continue to detect today. We keep a log of them on our dashboard.
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dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
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dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
SARS-CoV-2 Cryptic Lineage Visualizations
dholab.github.io
November 21, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Fortunately, the NJ variant fizzled over a year ago and did not enter circulation, but there are still cryptics that we continue to detect today. We keep a log of them on our dashboard.
8/
dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
8/
dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
Remarkably, the NJ Spike had a nearly identical binding footprint on ACE2 as the parent Spike, despite only 10/25 of the ACE2 binding residues being conserved.
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November 21, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Remarkably, the NJ Spike had a nearly identical binding footprint on ACE2 as the parent Spike, despite only 10/25 of the ACE2 binding residues being conserved.
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As I mentioned, they also found it has the tightest ACE2 binding.
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November 21, 2025 at 3:19 PM
As I mentioned, they also found it has the tightest ACE2 binding.
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