Solid Evidence
@solidevidence.bsky.social
Molecular virologist, sewage sage and wastewater wizard.
Professor at University of Missouri, School of Medicine
Professor at University of Missouri, School of Medicine
Here's the evidence. This is the RBD. BA.3.2 is the one without the deletion.
November 26, 2025 at 11:23 PM
Here's the evidence. This is the RBD. BA.3.2 is the one without the deletion.
We’ve seen blips of FluC every here and there, but it’s been pretty rare other than the 2023/24 outbreak in Columbia.
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November 23, 2025 at 8:07 PM
We’ve seen blips of FluC every here and there, but it’s been pretty rare other than the 2023/24 outbreak in Columbia.
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2 seasons ago (when we were only sampling in Columbia), FluC was the dominant influenza, but we never knew what to make of it.
Last season it wasn’t present at all.
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Last season it wasn’t present at all.
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November 23, 2025 at 8:07 PM
2 seasons ago (when we were only sampling in Columbia), FluC was the dominant influenza, but we never knew what to make of it.
Last season it wasn’t present at all.
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Last season it wasn’t present at all.
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H1N1, H3N2, and FluB are all in the flu vaccines, but the H3N1 is a bit off from subclade K. I’m sure there will be some protection, but less than ideal.
There haven’t been many cases in the Northern Hemisphere so far, but what we’ve seen has been dominated by K.
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There haven’t been many cases in the Northern Hemisphere so far, but what we’ve seen has been dominated by K.
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November 23, 2025 at 8:07 PM
H1N1, H3N2, and FluB are all in the flu vaccines, but the H3N1 is a bit off from subclade K. I’m sure there will be some protection, but less than ideal.
There haven’t been many cases in the Northern Hemisphere so far, but what we’ve seen has been dominated by K.
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There haven’t been many cases in the Northern Hemisphere so far, but what we’ve seen has been dominated by K.
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What we saw in wastewater was a little different. We saw much more H1N1 than H3N2, but this could reflect it being less severe (and less likely to be tested), but I don’t know for sure if this is the reason.
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November 23, 2025 at 8:07 PM
What we saw in wastewater was a little different. We saw much more H1N1 than H3N2, but this could reflect it being less severe (and less likely to be tested), but I don’t know for sure if this is the reason.
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Last season, there was a pretty even split between H1N1 and H3N2, with a little bit of FluB late in the season. At least according to CDC patient data.
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November 23, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Last season, there was a pretty even split between H1N1 and H3N2, with a little bit of FluB late in the season. At least according to CDC patient data.
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Remarkably, the NJ Spike had a nearly identical binding footprint on ACE2 as the parent Spike, despite only 10/25 of the ACE2 binding residues being conserved.
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November 21, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Remarkably, the NJ Spike had a nearly identical binding footprint on ACE2 as the parent Spike, despite only 10/25 of the ACE2 binding residues being conserved.
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As I mentioned, they also found it has the tightest ACE2 binding.
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November 21, 2025 at 3:19 PM
As I mentioned, they also found it has the tightest ACE2 binding.
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As the manuscript shows, the NJ cryptic is more divergent than any SC2 Spike ever seen in circulation.
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November 21, 2025 at 3:19 PM
As the manuscript shows, the NJ cryptic is more divergent than any SC2 Spike ever seen in circulation.
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This is a very sad day for public health and evidence-based science in general.
November 20, 2025 at 3:17 PM
This is a very sad day for public health and evidence-based science in general.
Here's the evidence.
November 19, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Here's the evidence.
Guess what we're hunting for.
November 10, 2025 at 6:41 PM
Guess what we're hunting for.
Are prickly pears or their fruit seasonal?
There are several cactus viruses that appear seasonally (Aug-Oct) just about everywhere. I can't think of any other cacti that are commonly eaten.
Or maybe it's infecting something else?
There are several cactus viruses that appear seasonally (Aug-Oct) just about everywhere. I can't think of any other cacti that are commonly eaten.
Or maybe it's infecting something else?
November 4, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Are prickly pears or their fruit seasonal?
There are several cactus viruses that appear seasonally (Aug-Oct) just about everywhere. I can't think of any other cacti that are commonly eaten.
Or maybe it's infecting something else?
There are several cactus viruses that appear seasonally (Aug-Oct) just about everywhere. I can't think of any other cacti that are commonly eaten.
Or maybe it's infecting something else?
There were other things we saw that we REALLY didn’t expect. For instance, H5N1 B3.13 (which wasn't in MO) appeared in Spring of 2024.
We’re pretty sure this came from a dairy in town that imports their milk from Texas, where H5N1 was rampant at that time.
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We’re pretty sure this came from a dairy in town that imports their milk from Texas, where H5N1 was rampant at that time.
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October 31, 2025 at 12:19 PM
There were other things we saw that we REALLY didn’t expect. For instance, H5N1 B3.13 (which wasn't in MO) appeared in Spring of 2024.
We’re pretty sure this came from a dairy in town that imports their milk from Texas, where H5N1 was rampant at that time.
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We’re pretty sure this came from a dairy in town that imports their milk from Texas, where H5N1 was rampant at that time.
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There were also a few Fall respiratory viruses we detected. Enterovirus D68 (expected), and on off-season surge of rhinovirus C42 (not expected, but nationwide).
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October 31, 2025 at 12:19 PM
There were also a few Fall respiratory viruses we detected. Enterovirus D68 (expected), and on off-season surge of rhinovirus C42 (not expected, but nationwide).
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We also saw a year-to-year turnover in Parechovirus serotypes (causes meningitis).
This exactly matched what our colleagues down the road in KC found in pediatric patients.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40712199/
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This exactly matched what our colleagues down the road in KC found in pediatric patients.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40712199/
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October 31, 2025 at 12:19 PM
We also saw a year-to-year turnover in Parechovirus serotypes (causes meningitis).
This exactly matched what our colleagues down the road in KC found in pediatric patients.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40712199/
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This exactly matched what our colleagues down the road in KC found in pediatric patients.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40712199/
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Most of the Rhinoviruses also circulated in the Spring, but as I’ve noted before, the specific serotypes changed from year to year.
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October 31, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Most of the Rhinoviruses also circulated in the Spring, but as I’ve noted before, the specific serotypes changed from year to year.
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Other respiratory viruses circulated later. For instance, ParaInfluenza 3 circulated from April-June both years.
This was expected, but I still don’t understand it epidemiologically. Why then?
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This was expected, but I still don’t understand it epidemiologically. Why then?
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October 31, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Other respiratory viruses circulated later. For instance, ParaInfluenza 3 circulated from April-June both years.
This was expected, but I still don’t understand it epidemiologically. Why then?
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This was expected, but I still don’t understand it epidemiologically. Why then?
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We also detected all of the other human coronaviruses, and influenza viruses. They all were most prevalent January-March, as expected.
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October 31, 2025 at 12:19 PM
We also detected all of the other human coronaviruses, and influenza viruses. They all were most prevalent January-March, as expected.
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We were also monitoring SARS-CoV-2 in these samples the old-fashioned way (dPCR) and it was nice to see that the amount detected from sequencing (normalized or not normalized) correlated pretty well with the dPCR results.
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October 31, 2025 at 12:19 PM
We were also monitoring SARS-CoV-2 in these samples the old-fashioned way (dPCR) and it was nice to see that the amount detected from sequencing (normalized or not normalized) correlated pretty well with the dPCR results.
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There was only one respiratory virus that was present year-round. You guessed it, SARS-CoV-2.
It’s still here.
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It’s still here.
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October 31, 2025 at 12:19 PM
There was only one respiratory virus that was present year-round. You guessed it, SARS-CoV-2.
It’s still here.
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It’s still here.
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Although human pathogens were a tiny fraction of the total sequences, there was still plenty of sequences to figure out what the circulating human pathogens were.
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October 31, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Although human pathogens were a tiny fraction of the total sequences, there was still plenty of sequences to figure out what the circulating human pathogens were.
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The one time of year when the ToBRV proportion goes down is late Summer, when it is partially displaced by Tomato Mosaic virus (which does infect US tomatoes).
This probably reflects people eating more local tomatoes when they are in season.
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This probably reflects people eating more local tomatoes when they are in season.
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October 31, 2025 at 12:19 PM
The one time of year when the ToBRV proportion goes down is late Summer, when it is partially displaced by Tomato Mosaic virus (which does infect US tomatoes).
This probably reflects people eating more local tomatoes when they are in season.
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This probably reflects people eating more local tomatoes when they are in season.
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What plant viruses you may ask? The most prominent one is a virus called Tomato Brown Rugose Fruit Virus (ToBRFV).
This was true everywhere in the country.
Americans eat a lot of tomatoes.
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This was true everywhere in the country.
Americans eat a lot of tomatoes.
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October 31, 2025 at 12:19 PM
What plant viruses you may ask? The most prominent one is a virus called Tomato Brown Rugose Fruit Virus (ToBRFV).
This was true everywhere in the country.
Americans eat a lot of tomatoes.
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This was true everywhere in the country.
Americans eat a lot of tomatoes.
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