Stephen Marrin
@smarrin.bsky.social
Full Prof at James Madison University & Director of Intelligence Analysis program. Former CIA analyst. Editor of journal Intelligence & National Security https://www.tandfonline.com/journals/fint20
New article in Intelligence and National Security titled "Invisible bodies of war: British servicewomen on covert operations in Northern Ireland" by Hannah West at:
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Invisible bodies of war: British servicewomen on covert operations in Northern Ireland
Women were employed to operate covertly with British security forces and paramilitary organisations during the Troubles in Northern Ireland (1968–1998). However, the experiences and legacies of Bri...
www.tandfonline.com
November 20, 2025 at 5:22 PM
New article in Intelligence and National Security titled "Invisible bodies of war: British servicewomen on covert operations in Northern Ireland" by Hannah West at:
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
New article titled "A country with “its own special problems”: domestic surveillance in Scotland during the Second World War" by Michelle Walker, published in Intelligence and National Security at: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
A country with “its own special problems”: domestic surveillance in Scotland during the Second World War
In the early years of the Second World War, rising workplace discontent, perceived communist influence, and war weariness sparked a suite of investigations into civilian mood and behaviour in the v...
www.tandfonline.com
November 20, 2025 at 5:18 PM
New article titled "A country with “its own special problems”: domestic surveillance in Scotland during the Second World War" by Michelle Walker, published in Intelligence and National Security at: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
New (free to access) article published in Intelligence and National Security titled: "Veiled intentions: Hamas’s strategic deception and intelligence success on 7 October 2023 by Muhanad Seloom at www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com
November 20, 2025 at 5:06 PM
New (free to access) article published in Intelligence and National Security titled: "Veiled intentions: Hamas’s strategic deception and intelligence success on 7 October 2023 by Muhanad Seloom at www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Stephen Marrin
From @jonathanrugman.bsky.social’s Killing In The Consulate
November 18, 2025 at 6:04 PM
From @jonathanrugman.bsky.social’s Killing In The Consulate
New article titled "The mathematical machinery of causal inference: from data to decision advantage" by Stephen Matthew Elin, published in Intelligence and National Security: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
The mathematical machinery of causal inference: from data to decision advantage
Quantitative intelligence analysis often leans on pattern recognition; in adversary-shaped settings, such correlations can be engineered. Building on Judea Pearl’s structural causal models – origin...
www.tandfonline.com
November 18, 2025 at 4:46 PM
New article titled "The mathematical machinery of causal inference: from data to decision advantage" by Stephen Matthew Elin, published in Intelligence and National Security: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
New article published in Intelligence and National Security (open access) by Peter de Werd titled "The value of engaged critique: civic intelligence oversight and the freedom of information in the Netherlands"
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com
November 18, 2025 at 4:43 PM
New article published in Intelligence and National Security (open access) by Peter de Werd titled "The value of engaged critique: civic intelligence oversight and the freedom of information in the Netherlands"
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Stephen Marrin
Special issue of Intelligence and National Security Published! Topic is "Rethinking Strategic Warning and Intelligence Failure in an Era of Global Transformation" See details here: www.tandfonline.com/toc/fint20/4...
Intelligence and National Security
Rethinking Strategic Warning and Intelligence Failure in an Era of Global Transformation. Volume 40, Issue 5 of Intelligence and National Security
www.tandfonline.com
November 8, 2025 at 9:02 PM
Special issue of Intelligence and National Security Published! Topic is "Rethinking Strategic Warning and Intelligence Failure in an Era of Global Transformation" See details here: www.tandfonline.com/toc/fint20/4...
Special issue of Intelligence and National Security Published! Topic is "Rethinking Strategic Warning and Intelligence Failure in an Era of Global Transformation" See details here: www.tandfonline.com/toc/fint20/4...
Intelligence and National Security
Rethinking Strategic Warning and Intelligence Failure in an Era of Global Transformation. Volume 40, Issue 5 of Intelligence and National Security
www.tandfonline.com
November 8, 2025 at 9:02 PM
Special issue of Intelligence and National Security Published! Topic is "Rethinking Strategic Warning and Intelligence Failure in an Era of Global Transformation" See details here: www.tandfonline.com/toc/fint20/4...
Reposted by Stephen Marrin
Please join us in congratulating @smarrin.bsky.social and Hamilton Bean. Both just hit 2,000 citations, but that's only a small measure of their contributions to Intelligence Studies.
scholar.google.com/citations?us...
scholar.google.com/citations?us...
scholar.google.com/citations?us...
scholar.google.com/citations?us...
scholar.google.com
September 22, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Please join us in congratulating @smarrin.bsky.social and Hamilton Bean. Both just hit 2,000 citations, but that's only a small measure of their contributions to Intelligence Studies.
scholar.google.com/citations?us...
scholar.google.com/citations?us...
scholar.google.com/citations?us...
scholar.google.com/citations?us...
Reposted by Stephen Marrin
This is another reason that demanding the admin make the case for war to Congress and the US public is so important: to make sure the admin has stress tested not just the goals, but also the operational arrangements (including veto-power over Israeli operations), and also that it has an exit plan.
This begs the question of whether the US-Israeli coalition has unified or even common war aims.
If the US enters the war, it would be the first coalition it fought in over which it did not have full operational command of the theater since WWI, unless I'm mistaken.
If the US enters the war, it would be the first coalition it fought in over which it did not have full operational command of the theater since WWI, unless I'm mistaken.
this is the big question right now -- if the US joins, are the war aims of the US-Israeli coalition limited to the nuclear program or will the US be signing on to a war of regime change
June 19, 2025 at 3:33 PM
This is another reason that demanding the admin make the case for war to Congress and the US public is so important: to make sure the admin has stress tested not just the goals, but also the operational arrangements (including veto-power over Israeli operations), and also that it has an exit plan.
Reposted by Stephen Marrin
"This is what we were voting for!"
From a friend in academia:
>>I was with a public health professor from [major university] last weekend and he said that NIH is now euthanizing whole cohorts of animals from animal studies because there is nobody around to feed them<<
Great work.
From a friend in academia:
>>I was with a public health professor from [major university] last weekend and he said that NIH is now euthanizing whole cohorts of animals from animal studies because there is nobody around to feed them<<
Great work.
May 24, 2025 at 11:57 PM
"This is what we were voting for!"
From a friend in academia:
>>I was with a public health professor from [major university] last weekend and he said that NIH is now euthanizing whole cohorts of animals from animal studies because there is nobody around to feed them<<
Great work.
From a friend in academia:
>>I was with a public health professor from [major university] last weekend and he said that NIH is now euthanizing whole cohorts of animals from animal studies because there is nobody around to feed them<<
Great work.
Reposted by Stephen Marrin
Two thumbs up for Kevin Riehle's new book on #counterintelligence.
Looks like a great companion to James M. Olson's classic To Catch a Spy: The Art of Counterintelligence.
Hope #FBI Academy got a copy.
www.rienner.com/title/Counte...
Looks like a great companion to James M. Olson's classic To Catch a Spy: The Art of Counterintelligence.
Hope #FBI Academy got a copy.
www.rienner.com/title/Counte...
Lynne Rienner Publishers | Counterintelligence at Its Core Assessing and Preventing Foreign Espionage
Lynne Rienner Publishers, celebrating 35 years of independent publishing, is known for its cutting-edge, high quality scholarly and academic books and journals in politics, social sciences, and the hu...
www.rienner.com
May 24, 2025 at 9:53 PM
Two thumbs up for Kevin Riehle's new book on #counterintelligence.
Looks like a great companion to James M. Olson's classic To Catch a Spy: The Art of Counterintelligence.
Hope #FBI Academy got a copy.
www.rienner.com/title/Counte...
Looks like a great companion to James M. Olson's classic To Catch a Spy: The Art of Counterintelligence.
Hope #FBI Academy got a copy.
www.rienner.com/title/Counte...
Reposted by Stephen Marrin
This is how authoritarian governments operate: They don’t just ignore the truth they demand that others rewrite it to suit their goals. And in this case, the cost is real human lives migrants being deported under false pretenses, denied basic legal rights, and sent into danger.
May 17, 2025 at 1:30 AM
This is how authoritarian governments operate: They don’t just ignore the truth they demand that others rewrite it to suit their goals. And in this case, the cost is real human lives migrants being deported under false pretenses, denied basic legal rights, and sent into danger.
Good article about intelligence analysis here: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Opinion | What happens when honest intelligence work can get you fired?
The U.S. appears to be on the verge of finding out.
www.washingtonpost.com
May 17, 2025 at 2:04 AM
Good article about intelligence analysis here: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Not good. The IC provides analysis independent of policy preferences. When those in power do not want to hear inconvenient facts & unwanted interpretation & punish messengers that provide it, that undermines the reason the IC was created in the first place www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
Gabbard fires leaders of intelligence group that wrote Venezuela assessment
The director of national intelligence fired top officials weeks after their group authored an assessment contradicting President Donald Trump’s legal rationale for deporting alleged Venezuelan gang me...
www.washingtonpost.com
May 14, 2025 at 4:48 PM
Not good. The IC provides analysis independent of policy preferences. When those in power do not want to hear inconvenient facts & unwanted interpretation & punish messengers that provide it, that undermines the reason the IC was created in the first place www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
New article in Intelligence and National Security titled "Trust without knowledge? UK intelligence agencies and the public trust conundrum" by Ged Hiscoke, Stephen Ward & Daniel Lomas at www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Trust without knowledge? UK intelligence agencies and the public trust conundrum
Intelligence agencies operating in modern-day liberal democracies are dependent on the public for support. In recent years, the UK’s intelligence and security agencies have adopted a public facing ...
www.tandfonline.com
May 13, 2025 at 6:52 PM
New article in Intelligence and National Security titled "Trust without knowledge? UK intelligence agencies and the public trust conundrum" by Ged Hiscoke, Stephen Ward & Daniel Lomas at www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
New article on British intelligence history written by Bruce Berkowitz and published in Intelligence and National Security titled "William Playfair, pioneer of modern intelligence" with link here:
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
William Playfair, pioneer of modern intelligence
William Playfair (1759–1823) pioneered several ideas accepted as fundamental to intelligence today, including compilations of national capabilities and covert economic warfare. Known primarily as a...
www.tandfonline.com
May 13, 2025 at 5:50 PM
New article on British intelligence history written by Bruce Berkowitz and published in Intelligence and National Security titled "William Playfair, pioneer of modern intelligence" with link here:
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
New RAND report on intelligence studies research titled "Furthering Intelligence Research: How the National Intelligence University Can Fill Critical Gaps for Intelligence Research" here: www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
Furthering Intelligence Research
This report addresses the differences between research and intelligence analysis, what intelligence research has been and should be done, and how the National Intelligence University can make research...
www.rand.org
May 8, 2025 at 2:32 PM
New RAND report on intelligence studies research titled "Furthering Intelligence Research: How the National Intelligence University Can Fill Critical Gaps for Intelligence Research" here: www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
New article published in Intelligence and National Security titled "Is the mere existence of an intelligence committee enough? Learning from the case study of the Finnish parliament" by Tapio Raunio at www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Is the mere existence of an intelligence committee enough? Learning from the case study of the Finnish parliament
Legislatures are increasingly investing resources into oversight of intelligence agencies. However, effective control of intelligence is wrought with challenges: while national security is a highly...
www.tandfonline.com
April 29, 2025 at 1:16 PM
New article published in Intelligence and National Security titled "Is the mere existence of an intelligence committee enough? Learning from the case study of the Finnish parliament" by Tapio Raunio at www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
RIP Robert Sinclar--author of CIA's "Thinking and Writing: Cognitive Science and Intelligence Analysis." "He was one of the founding members of the CIA Canoe Pool, commuting to the CIA's Langley, VA offices by canoe across the Potomac River" www.legacy.com/us/obituarie...
Robert Sinclair Obituary (1934 - 2025) - Arlington, VA - The Washington Post
View Robert Soutter Sinclair's obituary, send flowers and sign the guestbook.
www.legacy.com
April 21, 2025 at 4:03 PM
RIP Robert Sinclar--author of CIA's "Thinking and Writing: Cognitive Science and Intelligence Analysis." "He was one of the founding members of the CIA Canoe Pool, commuting to the CIA's Langley, VA offices by canoe across the Potomac River" www.legacy.com/us/obituarie...
From Thomas Boghardt: "The International Intelligence History Association has issued a call for their intelligence history book prize 2025. For more information, see: intelligence-history.org?p=1521
Intelligence History Book Prize 2025
We are delighted to announce our call for nominations for the Intelligence History Book Prize 2025. The prize is worth € 1,000 and will be awarded by the International Intelligence History Associat…
intelligence-history.org
April 10, 2025 at 7:52 PM
From Thomas Boghardt: "The International Intelligence History Association has issued a call for their intelligence history book prize 2025. For more information, see: intelligence-history.org?p=1521
Call for papers for Israeli intelligence studies conference (28-29 October 2025), with proposals due 31 July 2025. See details below...good opportunity for intelligence studies scholars and practitioners here!
📣 Issuing today the call for papers & award nominations for the Israeli Intelligence Studies Conference 2025!
🗓️ October 28-29, 2025
🌎 @hebrewuniversity.bsky.social, Jerusalem
📩 Submission deadline: July 31, 2025
🗓️ October 28-29, 2025
🌎 @hebrewuniversity.bsky.social, Jerusalem
📩 Submission deadline: July 31, 2025
April 6, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Call for papers for Israeli intelligence studies conference (28-29 October 2025), with proposals due 31 July 2025. See details below...good opportunity for intelligence studies scholars and practitioners here!
New article published, titled "NOCs and illegals in the current surveillance landscape: can mimicry help overcome evolving challenges?" by Grigorij Serscikov, at the journal Intelligence and National Security, here:
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
NOCs and illegals in the current surveillance landscape: can mimicry help overcome evolving challenges?
This study examines the evolving challenges faced by intelligence operatives, particularly Non-Official Cover (NOC) officers and illegals, in the context of modern surveillance technologies. With a...
www.tandfonline.com
April 4, 2025 at 2:13 PM
New article published, titled "NOCs and illegals in the current surveillance landscape: can mimicry help overcome evolving challenges?" by Grigorij Serscikov, at the journal Intelligence and National Security, here:
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
This might be a great example of analytic intelligence failure due to what looks like it not only analytic error but analytic fraud
NEW: Thanks very much to @itstygrey.bsky.social for getting me started down this path, but apparently nearly all of these tattoos are NOT from members of Tren de Aragua. Instead, they're stolen from random places on the internet, some nearly a decade old, and from tattoo artists around the world. 🧵
Adding some more context here: The document linked above also has an unclassified ICE HSI list of some Tren de Aragua tattoos and "identifiers."
Wearing a Michael Jordan jersey can get you halfway to being deemed a TDA member, and having a nautical star tattoo can get you the rest of the way!
Wearing a Michael Jordan jersey can get you halfway to being deemed a TDA member, and having a nautical star tattoo can get you the rest of the way!
March 31, 2025 at 2:52 AM
This might be a great example of analytic intelligence failure due to what looks like it not only analytic error but analytic fraud