Dan O'Hara
@skeuomorphology.bsky.social
Runs the UK Covid PCR positivity map:
https://jamestindall.info/skeuomorphology/ladb_covid/index.html
Otherwise:
literary history | philosophy of tech | EXTREME METAPHORS: Interviews with JG Ballard http://amazon.co.uk/dp/B007QOXKHI | www.danohara.co.uk
https://jamestindall.info/skeuomorphology/ladb_covid/index.html
Otherwise:
literary history | philosophy of tech | EXTREME METAPHORS: Interviews with JG Ballard http://amazon.co.uk/dp/B007QOXKHI | www.danohara.co.uk
For most of the country, this is as good a time as we've had this year, positivity-wise.
I'd be saying to the CEV, get your higher-risk activities done now - were it not for flu being almost as high as 2023's peak already.
6/7
I'd be saying to the CEV, get your higher-risk activities done now - were it not for flu being almost as high as 2023's peak already.
6/7
November 27, 2025 at 7:38 PM
For most of the country, this is as good a time as we've had this year, positivity-wise.
I'd be saying to the CEV, get your higher-risk activities done now - were it not for flu being almost as high as 2023's peak already.
6/7
I'd be saying to the CEV, get your higher-risk activities done now - were it not for flu being almost as high as 2023's peak already.
6/7
I'm also going to highlight this area: a vast swathe of non-reporting from east to west coast.
Doncaster is having a rebound, as is Bolton and Blackpool.
Given that Bolton and Calderdale have both put out alerts about A&E being under pressure in the last couple of days, I'd remain cautious.
5/7
Doncaster is having a rebound, as is Bolton and Blackpool.
Given that Bolton and Calderdale have both put out alerts about A&E being under pressure in the last couple of days, I'd remain cautious.
5/7
November 27, 2025 at 7:38 PM
I'm also going to highlight this area: a vast swathe of non-reporting from east to west coast.
Doncaster is having a rebound, as is Bolton and Blackpool.
Given that Bolton and Calderdale have both put out alerts about A&E being under pressure in the last couple of days, I'd remain cautious.
5/7
Doncaster is having a rebound, as is Bolton and Blackpool.
Given that Bolton and Calderdale have both put out alerts about A&E being under pressure in the last couple of days, I'd remain cautious.
5/7
The outlier is Worcestershire: still quite high, and that seems to be reflected in Herefordshire, Gloucestershire and Swindon.
There's also a patch of higher positivity in Rutland/Northants/Cambs/Beds - maybe a rebound.
4/7
There's also a patch of higher positivity in Rutland/Northants/Cambs/Beds - maybe a rebound.
4/7
November 27, 2025 at 7:37 PM
The outlier is Worcestershire: still quite high, and that seems to be reflected in Herefordshire, Gloucestershire and Swindon.
There's also a patch of higher positivity in Rutland/Northants/Cambs/Beds - maybe a rebound.
4/7
There's also a patch of higher positivity in Rutland/Northants/Cambs/Beds - maybe a rebound.
4/7
In England, the difference between our adjusted percentage and UKHSA's tells a story: reporting has really fallen off, perhaps as attention turns to flu.
There's still enough to see that London is experiencing a prolonged wave, though.
3/7
There's still enough to see that London is experiencing a prolonged wave, though.
3/7
November 27, 2025 at 7:37 PM
In England, the difference between our adjusted percentage and UKHSA's tells a story: reporting has really fallen off, perhaps as attention turns to flu.
There's still enough to see that London is experiencing a prolonged wave, though.
3/7
There's still enough to see that London is experiencing a prolonged wave, though.
3/7
In Scotland, Moray and the Borders are well above the average at 9.5 and 9.1% respectively.
But good news in the Shetlands, where last week's outbreak seems to have been stamped on, hard and effectively.
2/7
But good news in the Shetlands, where last week's outbreak seems to have been stamped on, hard and effectively.
2/7
November 27, 2025 at 7:37 PM
In Scotland, Moray and the Borders are well above the average at 9.5 and 9.1% respectively.
But good news in the Shetlands, where last week's outbreak seems to have been stamped on, hard and effectively.
2/7
But good news in the Shetlands, where last week's outbreak seems to have been stamped on, hard and effectively.
2/7
The PCR positivity map is out, and UKHSA is reporting English national positivity at 2.3%.
Adjusted for non-reporting, it's actually 3.53% - not as low as it was in January/February, but as low as in March.
In Scotland it's 2.67%.
jamestindall.info/skeuomorphol...
1/7
Adjusted for non-reporting, it's actually 3.53% - not as low as it was in January/February, but as low as in March.
In Scotland it's 2.67%.
jamestindall.info/skeuomorphol...
1/7
November 27, 2025 at 7:36 PM
The PCR positivity map is out, and UKHSA is reporting English national positivity at 2.3%.
Adjusted for non-reporting, it's actually 3.53% - not as low as it was in January/February, but as low as in March.
In Scotland it's 2.67%.
jamestindall.info/skeuomorphol...
1/7
Adjusted for non-reporting, it's actually 3.53% - not as low as it was in January/February, but as low as in March.
In Scotland it's 2.67%.
jamestindall.info/skeuomorphol...
1/7
I don't have much to say about the covid inquiry.
I'm looking back at my briefing documents advising local government on the 14th March 2020.
46 UK universities had already locked down by this date, ten days before Boris announced national lockdown.
I wish I'd pushed harder.
I'm looking back at my briefing documents advising local government on the 14th March 2020.
46 UK universities had already locked down by this date, ten days before Boris announced national lockdown.
I wish I'd pushed harder.
November 20, 2025 at 10:28 PM
I don't have much to say about the covid inquiry.
I'm looking back at my briefing documents advising local government on the 14th March 2020.
46 UK universities had already locked down by this date, ten days before Boris announced national lockdown.
I wish I'd pushed harder.
I'm looking back at my briefing documents advising local government on the 14th March 2020.
46 UK universities had already locked down by this date, ten days before Boris announced national lockdown.
I wish I'd pushed harder.
There are problems with the flu data in England this week.
It may look like flu is slowing, but a combination of school half-term and the postponed lab surveillance results leave me looking at GP positivity instead. That was up very sharply this week, & is not shown here.
9/11
It may look like flu is slowing, but a combination of school half-term and the postponed lab surveillance results leave me looking at GP positivity instead. That was up very sharply this week, & is not shown here.
9/11
November 20, 2025 at 8:38 PM
There are problems with the flu data in England this week.
It may look like flu is slowing, but a combination of school half-term and the postponed lab surveillance results leave me looking at GP positivity instead. That was up very sharply this week, & is not shown here.
9/11
It may look like flu is slowing, but a combination of school half-term and the postponed lab surveillance results leave me looking at GP positivity instead. That was up very sharply this week, & is not shown here.
9/11
Lastly, this area across Lancashire & West Yorkshire has been one of the persistent problem areas. Lots of non-reporting, which is worrying and atypical.
Calderdale is showing a rebound on the way up again.
8/11
Calderdale is showing a rebound on the way up again.
8/11
November 20, 2025 at 8:37 PM
Lastly, this area across Lancashire & West Yorkshire has been one of the persistent problem areas. Lots of non-reporting, which is worrying and atypical.
Calderdale is showing a rebound on the way up again.
8/11
Calderdale is showing a rebound on the way up again.
8/11
Levels looks like they're not worsening, but not improving either, across Cumbria, Durham, and Teesside.
No stats from Hartlepool, Stockport, or Sunderland, unfortunately.
7/11
No stats from Hartlepool, Stockport, or Sunderland, unfortunately.
7/11
November 20, 2025 at 8:37 PM
Levels looks like they're not worsening, but not improving either, across Cumbria, Durham, and Teesside.
No stats from Hartlepool, Stockport, or Sunderland, unfortunately.
7/11
No stats from Hartlepool, Stockport, or Sunderland, unfortunately.
7/11
Norfolk is also showing rates double the national average.
Like London, it was late to this wave.
6/11
Like London, it was late to this wave.
6/11
November 20, 2025 at 8:37 PM
Norfolk is also showing rates double the national average.
Like London, it was late to this wave.
6/11
Like London, it was late to this wave.
6/11
In the west there continue to be higher rates in Gloucestershire, Worcestershire, Dudley, West Northants., with the highest of them in Swindon.
5/11
5/11
November 20, 2025 at 8:36 PM
In the west there continue to be higher rates in Gloucestershire, Worcestershire, Dudley, West Northants., with the highest of them in Swindon.
5/11
5/11
Despite the amount of non-reporting in London, there's enough to see a wave is still rumbling on.
This started only as the rest of the country was beginning to recover, & may continue for some time.
4/11
This started only as the rest of the country was beginning to recover, & may continue for some time.
4/11
November 20, 2025 at 8:36 PM
Despite the amount of non-reporting in London, there's enough to see a wave is still rumbling on.
This started only as the rest of the country was beginning to recover, & may continue for some time.
4/11
This started only as the rest of the country was beginning to recover, & may continue for some time.
4/11
The outlier in England is Brighton, but it seems they're trying to do only a tiny fraction of the amount of testing in the Shetlands. Mad.
If you're anywhere in the area I'd go off West Sussex's rate.
3/11
If you're anywhere in the area I'd go off West Sussex's rate.
3/11
November 20, 2025 at 8:36 PM
The outlier in England is Brighton, but it seems they're trying to do only a tiny fraction of the amount of testing in the Shetlands. Mad.
If you're anywhere in the area I'd go off West Sussex's rate.
3/11
If you're anywhere in the area I'd go off West Sussex's rate.
3/11
The outlier in Scotland is the Shetlands at 22.4%.
That consists of 11 positives from 49 tests - a fair amount, and I imagine everyone there's aware they're in a wave.
Elsewhere Fife, Falkirk, East Ayrshire and Highland remain double the Scottish average.
2/11
That consists of 11 positives from 49 tests - a fair amount, and I imagine everyone there's aware they're in a wave.
Elsewhere Fife, Falkirk, East Ayrshire and Highland remain double the Scottish average.
2/11
November 20, 2025 at 8:35 PM
The outlier in Scotland is the Shetlands at 22.4%.
That consists of 11 positives from 49 tests - a fair amount, and I imagine everyone there's aware they're in a wave.
Elsewhere Fife, Falkirk, East Ayrshire and Highland remain double the Scottish average.
2/11
That consists of 11 positives from 49 tests - a fair amount, and I imagine everyone there's aware they're in a wave.
Elsewhere Fife, Falkirk, East Ayrshire and Highland remain double the Scottish average.
2/11
The PCR positivity map is out, and UKHSA is reporting another drop to 3.3% in England.
Taking into account all the areas that aren't reporting, we make that 4.38%.
That's more in line with 4.19% in Scotland (where there's much more reliable reporting).
jamestindall.info/skeuomorphol...
1/11
Taking into account all the areas that aren't reporting, we make that 4.38%.
That's more in line with 4.19% in Scotland (where there's much more reliable reporting).
jamestindall.info/skeuomorphol...
1/11
November 20, 2025 at 8:35 PM
The PCR positivity map is out, and UKHSA is reporting another drop to 3.3% in England.
Taking into account all the areas that aren't reporting, we make that 4.38%.
That's more in line with 4.19% in Scotland (where there's much more reliable reporting).
jamestindall.info/skeuomorphol...
1/11
Taking into account all the areas that aren't reporting, we make that 4.38%.
That's more in line with 4.19% in Scotland (where there's much more reliable reporting).
jamestindall.info/skeuomorphol...
1/11
Just been discussing that on X with another W Sussex resident.
Here's part of my reply (discussing the hospital stats for October)
Here's part of my reply (discussing the hospital stats for October)
November 14, 2025 at 9:06 PM
Just been discussing that on X with another W Sussex resident.
Here's part of my reply (discussing the hospital stats for October)
Here's part of my reply (discussing the hospital stats for October)
And it looks like there's yet another rebound on Teesside, this time not only in Stockton-on-Tees and Hartlepool, but also in Middlesborough and Durham.
7/7
7/7
November 13, 2025 at 9:55 PM
And it looks like there's yet another rebound on Teesside, this time not only in Stockton-on-Tees and Hartlepool, but also in Middlesborough and Durham.
7/7
7/7
There's a similarly persistent patch around South Yorkshire, with Doncaster the highest.
That patch likely extends further west looking at Rochdale, Bolton, and Tameside.
Hospital stats out today confirm that exceptionally high spike in Sheffield mid-October.
6/7
That patch likely extends further west looking at Rochdale, Bolton, and Tameside.
Hospital stats out today confirm that exceptionally high spike in Sheffield mid-October.
6/7
November 13, 2025 at 9:55 PM
There's a similarly persistent patch around South Yorkshire, with Doncaster the highest.
That patch likely extends further west looking at Rochdale, Bolton, and Tameside.
Hospital stats out today confirm that exceptionally high spike in Sheffield mid-October.
6/7
That patch likely extends further west looking at Rochdale, Bolton, and Tameside.
Hospital stats out today confirm that exceptionally high spike in Sheffield mid-October.
6/7
West Sussex is very much still in the thick of it, and that likely applies to East Sussex and Brighton too, who aren't reporting.
5/7
5/7
November 13, 2025 at 9:54 PM
West Sussex is very much still in the thick of it, and that likely applies to East Sussex and Brighton too, who aren't reporting.
5/7
5/7
As predicted, London is seeing higher levels than most, having escaped the worst of this wave during the last couple of months.
Poor reporting in commuter belt areas, but it's notable that Medway and Thurrock have rebounds.
4/7
Poor reporting in commuter belt areas, but it's notable that Medway and Thurrock have rebounds.
4/7
November 13, 2025 at 9:54 PM
As predicted, London is seeing higher levels than most, having escaped the worst of this wave during the last couple of months.
Poor reporting in commuter belt areas, but it's notable that Medway and Thurrock have rebounds.
4/7
Poor reporting in commuter belt areas, but it's notable that Medway and Thurrock have rebounds.
4/7
In England, it's Worcestershire, though there's a definite band of higher levels remaining from Herefordshire to Northamptonshire and Cambridgeshire.
Gloucestershire and Wiltshire are also elevated.
3/7
Gloucestershire and Wiltshire are also elevated.
3/7
November 13, 2025 at 9:54 PM
In England, it's Worcestershire, though there's a definite band of higher levels remaining from Herefordshire to Northamptonshire and Cambridgeshire.
Gloucestershire and Wiltshire are also elevated.
3/7
Gloucestershire and Wiltshire are also elevated.
3/7
With most areas not far from the average, it's very easy to see the outliers, all of which are having trouble with rebounding levels.
In Scotland the outlier is East Lothian.
2/7
In Scotland the outlier is East Lothian.
2/7
November 13, 2025 at 9:54 PM
With most areas not far from the average, it's very easy to see the outliers, all of which are having trouble with rebounding levels.
In Scotland the outlier is East Lothian.
2/7
In Scotland the outlier is East Lothian.
2/7
The PCR positivity map is out, and national positivity across England has nudged downwards a little further to 5%. In Scotland it's 4.05%.
Adjusted for non-reporting areas, we make the English average 6.50%.
jamestindall.info/skeuomorphol...
1/7
Adjusted for non-reporting areas, we make the English average 6.50%.
jamestindall.info/skeuomorphol...
1/7
November 13, 2025 at 9:53 PM
The PCR positivity map is out, and national positivity across England has nudged downwards a little further to 5%. In Scotland it's 4.05%.
Adjusted for non-reporting areas, we make the English average 6.50%.
jamestindall.info/skeuomorphol...
1/7
Adjusted for non-reporting areas, we make the English average 6.50%.
jamestindall.info/skeuomorphol...
1/7
And there is a very clear rebound along much of the south coast, particularly in West Sussex, but also in Portsmouth, Dorset, and Devon.
10/10
10/10
November 6, 2025 at 7:33 PM
And there is a very clear rebound along much of the south coast, particularly in West Sussex, but also in Portsmouth, Dorset, and Devon.
10/10
10/10