It seems to me that the pre-covid paradigm has been inverted.

We no longer have "flu season" for a couple of months in winter.

The norm is now year-round respiratory disease with an "off-season" of a couple of months.

This year, that was in spring.

7/7

For most of the country, this is as good a time as we've had this year, positivity-wise.

I'd be saying to the CEV, get your higher-risk activities done now - were it not for flu being almost as high as 2023's peak already.

6/7

I'm also going to highlight this area: a vast swathe of non-reporting from east to west coast.

Doncaster is having a rebound, as is Bolton and Blackpool.

Given that Bolton and Calderdale have both put out alerts about A&E being under pressure in the last couple of days, I'd remain cautious.

5/7

The outlier is Worcestershire: still quite high, and that seems to be reflected in Herefordshire, Gloucestershire and Swindon.

There's also a patch of higher positivity in Rutland/Northants/Cambs/Beds - maybe a rebound.

4/7

In England, the difference between our adjusted percentage and UKHSA's tells a story: reporting has really fallen off, perhaps as attention turns to flu.

There's still enough to see that London is experiencing a prolonged wave, though.

3/7

In Scotland, Moray and the Borders are well above the average at 9.5 and 9.1% respectively.

But good news in the Shetlands, where last week's outbreak seems to have been stamped on, hard and effectively.

2/7

But it does still happen.

In mid-October 2.5% of NHS bed capacity was taken up with covid beds.

It'd be nice if they'd use the map & other surveillance to implement mitigations, because these admissions are avoidable.

11/11

A friend's just spent 3 weeks in the ICU with covid, and got out last week. No relevant vulnerabilities & not old. Not eligible for a booster.

They're lucky to have got out.

I tell you this because the public seem to think this doesn't happen anymore.

10/11

There are problems with the flu data in England this week.

It may look like flu is slowing, but a combination of school half-term and the postponed lab surveillance results leave me looking at GP positivity instead. That was up very sharply this week, & is not shown here.

9/11

Lastly, this area across Lancashire & West Yorkshire has been one of the persistent problem areas. Lots of non-reporting, which is worrying and atypical.

Calderdale is showing a rebound on the way up again.

8/11

Levels looks like they're not worsening, but not improving either, across Cumbria, Durham, and Teesside.

No stats from Hartlepool, Stockport, or Sunderland, unfortunately.

7/11

Norfolk is also showing rates double the national average.

Like London, it was late to this wave.

6/11

In the west there continue to be higher rates in Gloucestershire, Worcestershire, Dudley, West Northants., with the highest of them in Swindon.

5/11

Despite the amount of non-reporting in London, there's enough to see a wave is still rumbling on.

This started only as the rest of the country was beginning to recover, & may continue for some time.

4/11

The outlier in England is Brighton, but it seems they're trying to do only a tiny fraction of the amount of testing in the Shetlands. Mad.

If you're anywhere in the area I'd go off West Sussex's rate.

3/11

The outlier in Scotland is the Shetlands at 22.4%.

That consists of 11 positives from 49 tests - a fair amount, and I imagine everyone there's aware they're in a wave.

Elsewhere Fife, Falkirk, East Ayrshire and Highland remain double the Scottish average.

2/11

Just been discussing that on X with another W Sussex resident.

Here's part of my reply (discussing the hospital stats for October)

And it looks like there's yet another rebound on Teesside, this time not only in Stockton-on-Tees and Hartlepool, but also in Middlesborough and Durham.

7/7