Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Reposted by 🇦🇺Sir Toasty

Ed Zitron

@edzitron.com

Monday Premium: The 12.7k word Hater's Guide To NVIDIA: how it makes money, how millions of GPUs are likely sitting uninstalled, and how its entire future relies on companies raising hundreds of billions in debt.

Here's $10 off annual.
edzitronswheresyouredatghostio.outpost.pub/public/promo...

NVIDIA's Future Success Is Predicated On The Ability For Everybody To Keep Feeding It Tens Of Billions Of Dollars Every Quarter, Requiring Endless Debt, Space, and Actual AI Demand To Exist
Here are some thoughts I have had:
A 25MW data center takes about $1 billion, with $600 million of that being GPUs - 200 GB200 racks, to be specific.
It needs about 20 acres - 100,000 square feet for the data center, roughly.
NVIDIA sells about $50 billion of GPUs and associated hardware in a quarter, so let's say that $40 billion of that is just the GPUs and $10 billion is the hardware, so around 13,333 GB200 racks. I realize that NVIDIA sells far more than that (GB300 racks, singular GPUs, and so on).
Deep-pocketed hyperscalers like Microsoft, Google, Meta and Amazon representing 41.32% of NVIDIA's revenue in the middle of 2025, funneling free cash flow directly into Jensen Huang's pockets...
...for now. Amazon ($15 billion), Google ($25 billion), Meta ($30 billion) and Oracle ($18 billion) have all had to raise massive amounts of debt to continue to fund AI-focused capital expenditures, with more than half of that (per Rubenstein) spent on GPUs.
Otherwise, basically anybody buying GPUs at any scale has to fund doing so with either venture capital (money raised in exchange for part of the company) or debt.
NVIDIA, at this point, around 8% of the value of the S&P 500 (the 500 leading (meaning they meet certain criteria of size, liquidity (cash availability) and profitability) companies on the US stock market). Its continued health - and representative value as a stock, which is not necessarily based on its actual numbers or health, but in this case kind of is? - has led the stock market to remarkable gains.
It is not enough for NVIDIA to simply be a profitable company. It must continue beating the last quarter's revenue, again and again and again and again, forever. If that sounds dramatic, I assure you it is the truth.

NVIDIA's continued success - and ability to continue delivering outsized beats of Wall Street's revenue estimates - depends on:
The willingness of a few very large, cash-rich companies (Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Google) to continue buying successive generations of NVIDIA GPUs.
The ability of said companies to continue buying successive generations of GPUs.
The ability of other, less-cash-rich companies like Oracle to continue being able to raise debt to buy massive amounts of GPUs - such as the $40 billion of GPUs that Oracle is buying for Stargate Abilene.
This is becoming a problem.
The ability of unprofitable, debt-ridden companies like CoreWeave, AI "neoclouds" that use the GPUs they purchase from NVIDIA as collateral for loans to buy more GPUs, to to continue raising that debt to buy more GPUs.
The ability of anybody who buys these GPUs to actually install them and use them, which requires massive amounts of construction...and more power than is currently available, even to the most well-funded and conspicuous projects.
In simple terms, for the debt markets to continue propping up its revenues, because there is not really enough free cash in the world to continue pumping it into NVIDIA at this rate.
And after all of this, Large Language Models, the only way to make any money on any of these GPUs, must prove they can actually produce a profit.
Per my article from September, I can find no compelling evidence (outside of boosters speciously claiming otherwise) that it's profitable to sell access to GPUs.
Based on my calculations, there's likely little more than $61 billion of actual AI revenue in 2025 across every single AI company and hyperscaler.
Note that I said "revenue." Absolutely nobody is making a profit.
The NVIDIA situation is one of the most insane things I've seen in my life.
The single-largest, single-most-valuable, single-most-profitable company on the stock market has got there through selling ultra-expensive hardware that takes hundreds of millio…

November 21, 2025 at 10:31 PM

Reposted by 🇦🇺Sir Toasty

Sprouts 🌱🔜 PAWcon DD

@coolartcorner.bsky.social

you know i always got that dog in me!!!! 🌭⤵️

November 12, 2025 at 10:20 PM

Reposted by 🇦🇺Sir Toasty

ned flAndurrz

@andurrz.bsky.social

@muttasaur.bsky.social and I doing a piece out back of @thatsruff.com's new store

November 15, 2025 at 6:42 AM

Reposted by 🇦🇺Sir Toasty

THAT'S RUFF

@thatsruff.com

Watching the master’s at work... 🌤️

November 15, 2025 at 9:53 AM

🇦🇺Sir Toasty

@sirtoasty.bsky.social

Once again I have confirmed, not a fan of red wine, back to the Shochu's, Soda's, and Moscato for me xD

November 15, 2025 at 10:10 AM

Reposted by 🇦🇺Sir Toasty

FURRJOI

@furrjoi.com

⚡️𝗕𝗟𝗔𝗖𝗞 𝗙𝗥𝗜𝗗𝗔𝗬 𝗪𝗔𝗥𝗠𝗨𝗣 𝗚𝗜𝗩𝗘𝗔𝗪𝗔𝗬⚡️

FURRJOI Black Friday is in the final countdown!

𝐎𝐍𝐋𝐘 𝟏 𝐃𝐀𝐘 𝐓𝐎 𝐆𝐎!⚡

To enter this warm up giveaway:
1⃣ Follow @furrjoi.com
2⃣ Share this post
3⃣ Comment

The winner can choose any one product from the whole site!! 🔥
Announcement: November 20th

#furrjoi #silicone

A Black Friday sale poster with the copy that FURRJOI Black Friday has only 1 day left, starting on November 14th

November 13, 2025 at 8:18 AM

🇦🇺Sir Toasty

@sirtoasty.bsky.social

Gonna get me a bottle of Moscato and Pin someone down to force them to watch Janky Train Sim Machinima with me xD

November 13, 2025 at 5:52 AM

Reposted by 🇦🇺Sir Toasty

muku

@tygo.cc

Strapped in and ready to go
For @flakemute.bsky.social

November 5, 2025 at 11:39 AM

🇦🇺Sir Toasty

@sirtoasty.bsky.social

Damn, waking up to spring rain on a day off is a vibe

November 2, 2025 at 11:51 PM

🇦🇺Sir Toasty

@sirtoasty.bsky.social

Tough decisions made at Costco from the look of it xD

An abandoned car seat left on the grass next to the car parking spaces at Costco

October 31, 2025 at 6:44 AM

Reposted by 🇦🇺Sir Toasty

rött 🔞

@censorrottie.bsky.social

daemon dayzzz

illustration of anthropomorphic rottweiler demon squatting and reaching into his loincloth while pulling on his lower jaw. His loincloth is torn and revealing hyper balls, and his tongue is long and forked.

October 10, 2025 at 11:09 PM

🇦🇺Sir Toasty

@sirtoasty.bsky.social

You know there's a little too much junk in the trunk when you can only reverse or do wheelies xD

October 18, 2025 at 4:46 AM

🇦🇺Sir Toasty

@sirtoasty.bsky.social

damn, why the hell does the .gay tld cost nearly $50 AUD to renew :/

October 17, 2025 at 9:31 AM

🇦🇺Sir Toasty

@sirtoasty.bsky.social

Get some of Sir Toasty's Hot seed(bread) xD

October 15, 2025 at 10:00 AM

🇦🇺Sir Toasty

@sirtoasty.bsky.social

damn, could use a cutie to come service me about now, guess I'll just have to bake some bread instead xD

October 14, 2025 at 7:23 AM

Reposted by 🇦🇺Sir Toasty

Naughty Fox

@naughtyfox-toys.bsky.social

🎃 𝗛𝗔𝗟𝗟𝗢𝗪𝗘𝗘𝗡 𝗚𝗜𝗩𝗘𝗔𝗪𝗔𝗬 🎃
It’s spooky season, Foxies! 👻🦊

Win 3 Toys of your choice + an X-Lube Bundle 💦🔥
Pick your favorites - any design, any size, any color! 🧡

How to enter:
✅ Follow @naughtyfox-toys.bsky.social
✅ Repost this post

🕒 Ends: Tuesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 10:00 PM CEST (Berlin Time)

October 11, 2025 at 11:17 AM

Reposted by 🇦🇺Sir Toasty

Kraest - COMMISSIONS OPEN

@kraest.bsky.social

hello would you like a fUCKIN BOYE?? Dante is a good horror boye and would like to go home with you! All you gotta do is adopt him and he's yours!
Reply here or DM me to claim him! :D

A large and VERY muscular horse demon with a skull for a face that shows his carnivorous teeth, posing and flexing. His fur is very dark, almost black grey, and he's covered in rusty reddish orange stripes that almost look like fire but not quite. Also because he's a horse, he's got a giant fuckin horsecock that hangs down to his knees, because why wouldn't he. Text on the image states that his name is Dante and his adoption price is $150

October 12, 2025 at 3:43 AM

Reposted by 🇦🇺Sir Toasty

AC

@pepperminthusky.bsky.social

🐺🎃 Oh No! You caught him! Or maybe he let himself get caught? Either way, it’s time to release some of that pent up energy. 🎃🐺

[ #FurryArt | #Werewolf | #NSFW ]