Henrik Singmann
@singmann.bsky.social
Associate Professor at UCL Experimental Psychology; math psych & cognitive psychology; statistical and cognitive modelling in R; German migrant worker in UK
Pinned
Henrik Singmann
@singmann.bsky.social
· Apr 27
Extreme-Value Signal Detection Theory for RecognitionMemory: The Parametric Road Not Taken
Signal Detection Theory has long served as a cornerstone of psychological research, particularly in recognition memory. Yet its conventional application hinges almost exclusively on the Gaussian…
doi.org
Honey, we fixed Signal Detection Theory (SDT)! In this preprint, Constantin Meyer-Grant, David Kellen, Sam Harding, and I critically evaluate the (unequal-variance) Gaussian SDT model in recognition memory and pursue the Gumbel-min model as a principled alternative: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
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Reposted by Henrik Singmann
Tfw you're reading about Maurice Hilleman, who developed 40 vaccines in his lifetime, and his work ethic
![“I ever caught anybody delaying a set of tests because [results] might come out on a weekend, it would be grounds for dismissal. You can imagine how that went over. They all had wives and that sort of thing. Now Merck tells [employees] that they don’t need to put in any extra time and that you have to balance your life. And that you have to have enjoyment with your job; [that way] you can do a better job and have fun. It’s all just a pile of shit. What the company should be doing is kicking ass. But that’s from the old school. I was told that I had a very unusual management style.”](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:73aicoale2mqwrap63rdzwep/bafkreihgtvwhkkkznw3qtlbbaproublfryobx6f2ic5fwy7ptj6ufmryc4@jpeg)
November 22, 2025 at 8:38 AM
Tfw you're reading about Maurice Hilleman, who developed 40 vaccines in his lifetime, and his work ethic
Reposted by Henrik Singmann
Belated but hopefully still exciting #rstats news: bridgesampling version 1.2-1 has just arrived on CRAN: cran.r-project.org/package=brid...
We now finally provide cmdstanr support (!) plus Monte Carlo Standard Error (MCSE), both thx to Giorgio Micaletto and @avehtari.bsky.social!
We now finally provide cmdstanr support (!) plus Monte Carlo Standard Error (MCSE), both thx to Giorgio Micaletto and @avehtari.bsky.social!
bridgesampling: Bridge Sampling for Marginal Likelihoods and Bayes Factors
Provides functions for estimating marginal likelihoods, Bayes factors, posterior model probabilities, and normalizing constants in general, via different versions of bridge sampling (Meng & Wong, ...
cran.r-project.org
November 19, 2025 at 5:34 PM
Belated but hopefully still exciting #rstats news: bridgesampling version 1.2-1 has just arrived on CRAN: cran.r-project.org/package=brid...
We now finally provide cmdstanr support (!) plus Monte Carlo Standard Error (MCSE), both thx to Giorgio Micaletto and @avehtari.bsky.social!
We now finally provide cmdstanr support (!) plus Monte Carlo Standard Error (MCSE), both thx to Giorgio Micaletto and @avehtari.bsky.social!
Reposted by Henrik Singmann
Papermillers complain about PubPeer.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
An expert criticism on post-publication peer review platforms: the case of pubpeer - DARU Journal of Pharmaceutical Sciences
While traditional peer review offers advantages in academic publishing, it is often hampered by significant weaknesses, leading to frustration among many authors. Scientific discoveries after publicat...
link.springer.com
November 15, 2025 at 6:08 PM
Papermillers complain about PubPeer.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Reposted by Henrik Singmann
Our new paper on how free time improves working memory and long-term memory differently at JEP:General with Klaus Oberauer and Alessandra Souza: Our results challenge a single explanation of the free-time benefit for memory retention across short and long intervals.
psycnet.apa.org/record/2026-...
psycnet.apa.org/record/2026-...
APA PsycNet
psycnet.apa.org
November 14, 2025 at 12:11 PM
Our new paper on how free time improves working memory and long-term memory differently at JEP:General with Klaus Oberauer and Alessandra Souza: Our results challenge a single explanation of the free-time benefit for memory retention across short and long intervals.
psycnet.apa.org/record/2026-...
psycnet.apa.org/record/2026-...
Reposted by Henrik Singmann
A few thoughts on alcohol duty ahead of the budget (and an excuse to update some old graphs).
These two show the important of accounting for inflation - in cash terms alcohol duty rates are higher than ever before, but in real terms they are at historically low levels.
These two show the important of accounting for inflation - in cash terms alcohol duty rates are higher than ever before, but in real terms they are at historically low levels.
November 13, 2025 at 12:05 PM
A few thoughts on alcohol duty ahead of the budget (and an excuse to update some old graphs).
These two show the important of accounting for inflation - in cash terms alcohol duty rates are higher than ever before, but in real terms they are at historically low levels.
These two show the important of accounting for inflation - in cash terms alcohol duty rates are higher than ever before, but in real terms they are at historically low levels.
Reposted by Henrik Singmann
The Department of Statistics at Warwick is holding an MSc Online Open Day for prospective master’s students on Monday, 24th November, at 10am (UK time).
Find more information and register here: warwick.ac.uk/fac/sc...
Find more information and register here: warwick.ac.uk/fac/sc...
November 13, 2025 at 10:02 AM
The Department of Statistics at Warwick is holding an MSc Online Open Day for prospective master’s students on Monday, 24th November, at 10am (UK time).
Find more information and register here: warwick.ac.uk/fac/sc...
Find more information and register here: warwick.ac.uk/fac/sc...
Reposted by Henrik Singmann
We hope everyone is having a great reading week! We will be back next Wednesday Nov 12th with Dr Jon Rozeenbeek from University of Cambridge, talking about avoiding the online "bad bot" apocalypse. Full details on our website (surl.li/mqtofs). Join us in person at IoE (UCL)!
November 7, 2025 at 1:29 PM
We hope everyone is having a great reading week! We will be back next Wednesday Nov 12th with Dr Jon Rozeenbeek from University of Cambridge, talking about avoiding the online "bad bot" apocalypse. Full details on our website (surl.li/mqtofs). Join us in person at IoE (UCL)!
Short thread on today's HotFresh SJDM paper: bsky.app/profile/maxm...
Today's HotFresh recommended paper is:
Maier, M., Harris, A. J. L., Kellen, D., & Singmann, H. (2025). Decision making under extinction risk. Cognitive Psychology, 159. doi.org/10.1016/j.co...
Maier, M., Harris, A. J. L., Kellen, D., & Singmann, H. (2025). Decision making under extinction risk. Cognitive Psychology, 159. doi.org/10.1016/j.co...
Redirecting
doi.org
November 3, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Short thread on today's HotFresh SJDM paper: bsky.app/profile/maxm...
Really cool new work from @mmrobinson93.bsky.social
Bridging Bayesian and representational theories of memory to predict memory bias: https://osf.io/t9ev7
October 27, 2025 at 7:42 AM
Really cool new work from @mmrobinson93.bsky.social
Reposted by Henrik Singmann
New on Pinkerite:
Steven Pinker: still undefeated as the world's biggest weasel
www.pinkerite.com/2025/10/stev...
Steven Pinker: still undefeated as the world's biggest weasel
www.pinkerite.com/2025/10/stev...
Steven Pinker: still undefeated as the world's biggest weasel
"Ferahgo the Assassin," by Steven Pinker's hereditarian ally Emily Willoughby , an image made publicly available by Willoughby on Faceb...
www.pinkerite.com
October 20, 2025 at 4:49 AM
New on Pinkerite:
Steven Pinker: still undefeated as the world's biggest weasel
www.pinkerite.com/2025/10/stev...
Steven Pinker: still undefeated as the world's biggest weasel
www.pinkerite.com/2025/10/stev...
Reposted by Henrik Singmann
Charles Murray longs for the days when you could brag to the NYTimes about how much you enjoyed using Thai prostitutes.
www.pinkerite.com/2025/05/one-...
www.pinkerite.com/2025/05/one-...
October 17, 2025 at 5:05 AM
Charles Murray longs for the days when you could brag to the NYTimes about how much you enjoyed using Thai prostitutes.
www.pinkerite.com/2025/05/one-...
www.pinkerite.com/2025/05/one-...
You actually can turn off the annoying generative AI popups in Acrobat Reader!
October 16, 2025 at 10:32 PM
You actually can turn off the annoying generative AI popups in Acrobat Reader!
Reposted by Henrik Singmann
October 11, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Reposted by Henrik Singmann
New preprint with @rogierk.bsky.social @paulbuerkner.com - we introduce "relative measurement uncertainty" - a reliability estimation method that's applicable across a broad class of Bayesian measurement models (e.g., generative-, computational- and item response theory-models osf.io/h54k8
OSF
osf.io
October 1, 2025 at 8:17 AM
New preprint with @rogierk.bsky.social @paulbuerkner.com - we introduce "relative measurement uncertainty" - a reliability estimation method that's applicable across a broad class of Bayesian measurement models (e.g., generative-, computational- and item response theory-models osf.io/h54k8
Reposted by Henrik Singmann
Great post by @andrew.heiss.phd on animating #rstats {dplyr} operations
www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2024/04...
www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2024/04...
Visualizing {dplyr}’s mutate(), summarize(), group_by(), and ungroup() with animations | Andrew Heiss
Visually explore how {dplyr}’s more complex core functions work together to wrangle data
www.andrewheiss.com
October 8, 2025 at 3:31 AM
Great post by @andrew.heiss.phd on animating #rstats {dplyr} operations
www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2024/04...
www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2024/04...
I remember reading a blog post somewhat recently on here arguing that for open science practices every effort counts. So we should not expect every paper to fulfil all open science criteria immediately but researcher should start by making their data open, then their code, etc. Anyone has a link?
October 7, 2025 at 3:37 PM
I remember reading a blog post somewhat recently on here arguing that for open science practices every effort counts. So we should not expect every paper to fulfil all open science criteria immediately but researcher should start by making their data open, then their code, etc. Anyone has a link?
Reposted by Henrik Singmann
Principles for proper peer review
doi.org
October 6, 2025 at 11:20 PM
Reposted by Henrik Singmann
🚨 The Economist has been telling you for years that polygamy causes civil war by locking men out of marriage. A new article with @rebeccasear.bsky.social and @anthrolog.bsky.social explains that the demography of marriage markets doesn't actually work that way. 🧵
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
High rates of polygyny do not lock large proportions of men out of the marriage market | PNAS
There is a widespread belief, in both the scholarly literature and the popular press,
that polygyny prevents large numbers of men from marrying by ...
www.pnas.org
October 6, 2025 at 12:45 PM
🚨 The Economist has been telling you for years that polygamy causes civil war by locking men out of marriage. A new article with @rebeccasear.bsky.social and @anthrolog.bsky.social explains that the demography of marriage markets doesn't actually work that way. 🧵
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Reposted by Henrik Singmann
Still a bit stunned but delighted to receive this from @royalsociety.org
October 4, 2025 at 7:25 AM
Still a bit stunned but delighted to receive this from @royalsociety.org
New paper from @uclpals.bsky.social PhD student Calvin Deans-Browne and myself. We study to what degree prior beliefs and argument quality affect evaluations of arguments about political topics (e.g., abortion). Our results show prior beliefs play a larger role than argument quality itself. A 🧵
In our study, we investigated how people evaluate everyday socio-political arguments in the context of their prior beliefs about the topics being discussed.
October 1, 2025 at 3:46 PM
New paper from @uclpals.bsky.social PhD student Calvin Deans-Browne and myself. We study to what degree prior beliefs and argument quality affect evaluations of arguments about political topics (e.g., abortion). Our results show prior beliefs play a larger role than argument quality itself. A 🧵
Reposted by Henrik Singmann
NEW FULLY FUNDED PHD POSITION
Looking for a motivated PhD candidate to join our team. Together with Danya Muilwijk, Jeffrey Beekman and I, you will explore opportunities and limitations of AI in the context of organoids
For more info and for applying 👉
www.careersatumcutrecht.com/vacancies/sc...
Looking for a motivated PhD candidate to join our team. Together with Danya Muilwijk, Jeffrey Beekman and I, you will explore opportunities and limitations of AI in the context of organoids
For more info and for applying 👉
www.careersatumcutrecht.com/vacancies/sc...
Vacancy — PhD position on AI methodology for prediction of patient outcomes using organoid models
Are you passionate about bringing personalized medicine to the next level and make real impact in healthcare? Join our team and develop novel AI methodology to improve predictions of relevant patient ...
www.careersatumcutrecht.com
September 25, 2025 at 10:57 AM
NEW FULLY FUNDED PHD POSITION
Looking for a motivated PhD candidate to join our team. Together with Danya Muilwijk, Jeffrey Beekman and I, you will explore opportunities and limitations of AI in the context of organoids
For more info and for applying 👉
www.careersatumcutrecht.com/vacancies/sc...
Looking for a motivated PhD candidate to join our team. Together with Danya Muilwijk, Jeffrey Beekman and I, you will explore opportunities and limitations of AI in the context of organoids
For more info and for applying 👉
www.careersatumcutrecht.com/vacancies/sc...
Reposted by Henrik Singmann
FWIW, both Clint and I discussed some points in the paper w/Uri (can't tag him b/c he blocked me) in private some time ago. To be clear, neither we nor he is entitled to "first comment" on anything. But if you say you have a policy you're willing to ignore when you feel, you don't have that policy.>
September 23, 2025 at 4:45 PM
FWIW, both Clint and I discussed some points in the paper w/Uri (can't tag him b/c he blocked me) in private some time ago. To be clear, neither we nor he is entitled to "first comment" on anything. But if you say you have a policy you're willing to ignore when you feel, you don't have that policy.>
Reposted by Henrik Singmann
I am pleased to share that "the bird study" is now accepted at Psychology and Aging! A great collaboration with visiting intern Kishen Senziani, @leabartsch.bsky.social & @edamizrak.bsky.social 😀 Check out the pre-print below and a short thread on the study design and main takeaways 🧵👇
What Makes a Birdbrain Tick: Long-term Memory Drives Expertise Effects on Working Memory Binding: https://osf.io/y835u
September 23, 2025 at 7:23 PM
I am pleased to share that "the bird study" is now accepted at Psychology and Aging! A great collaboration with visiting intern Kishen Senziani, @leabartsch.bsky.social & @edamizrak.bsky.social 😀 Check out the pre-print below and a short thread on the study design and main takeaways 🧵👇
Reposted by Henrik Singmann
Two new preprints on multilevel HMMs! Time series data is now pervasive in psychology and new methods are needed to model the dynamics in such data. Hidden Markov Models (HHMs) are powerful models for dynamics in which a system is switching between a number of discrete states.
September 22, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Two new preprints on multilevel HMMs! Time series data is now pervasive in psychology and new methods are needed to model the dynamics in such data. Hidden Markov Models (HHMs) are powerful models for dynamics in which a system is switching between a number of discrete states.