The big Democratic wins of the 2025 elections will shift political dynamics and strategies in the coming year. For key takeaways, read our Q&A with UM political scientist Tyler Simko @simko.bsky.social, elections analyst for CBS.

cpsblog.isr.umich.edu?p=3516

Dense, high Hispanic counties like Hudson also point against the ‘24 red shift constituting a lasting “new” NJ. Cities like Perth Amboy saw large ‘24 Trump shifts, but supported Sherrill on Tuesday with overwhelming margins.

Read more from me and @kabirkhanna.bsky.social for #CBSDataDesk🍎 below!

NJ's bluest counties saw biggest turnout increases, propelling landslide

Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21:
Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union
>30% increase in total vote
>30-pt Democratic margin

High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov

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NYC map shaded by vote margin!

We collected very granular precinct data and aggregated it to neighborhoods people actually recognize

Bushwick, Flushing, Upper West Side, etc.

datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/

H/T @mitelectionlab.bsky.social @chriskenny.bsky.social @corymccartan.com @simko.bsky.social

Mamdani's win by NYC neighborhood: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/4/

Hover over map to see our estimates...

#CBSDataDesk🍎

Here at the CBS News data desk with @chriskenny.bsky.social and @simko.bsky.social! Looking at the VA numbers

Supported by both the Fordham Institute and @wallacefoundation.bsky.social, Michael Hartney and I explored the extent to which U.S. school board members are politically and demographically representative of the communities they serve.

Here's a summary of our main findings:

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👀 Local governments often take "symbolic" stances on issues where they hold no authority or jurisdiction. @simko.bsky.social and Taran Samarth examine the dynamics and purpose of "symbolic representation" by studying the response of US local governments to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. #APSA2025

Trump’s proposed rush job Census isn’t just immoral and regressive—it will harm communities across the country and compromise data quality: @chriskenny.bsky.social and I in @thehill.com today:

thehill.com/opinion/camp...

Do you use tract boundaries in your research? Jake Brown, @simko.bsky.social, and I have a new working paper (osf.io/preprints/so...): Any Way You Slice It: Racial Segregation Statistics are Robust to Aggregation Bias

We show that tract-level segregation is robust to MAUP using simulation methods.

"shifts in political geography and gerrymandering reduced the number of highly competitive districts by over 25% [from 2010 to 2020], with geographic polarization driving most of the decline."

In our polarized political environment, I’m excited to share my new ASR publication: “Competence over Partisanship: Party Affiliation Does Not Affect the Selection of School District Superintendents”. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Great article, and a good example of the continuing value of public, open source research tools (we published these simulations in 2022). When new claims and arguments arise, anyone can use existing resources to examine them.

You may have noticed things are happening fast in the world of redistricting…

I along with @maxwellpalmer.com and @simko.bsky.social wrote an article last week (though published today) that analyzes the changes to the congressional district map in Texas, and particularly San Antonio.

Texas was already arguably the biggest Republican gerrymander in the nation, according to this PNAS paper by @chriskenny.bsky.social @corymccartan.com @simko.bsky.social @shirokuriwaki.bsky.social www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1...

Is government suspicion based on real lived experiences and historic harm? #ISRNextGeneration scholar Franshelly Martinez-Ortiz writes on the case of Michigan, where events like the Flint Water Crisis give rise to lasting mistrust. @maraceci.bsky.social #MPSA2025 ➡️
cpsblog.isr.umich.edu?p=3434

Urban–rural cleavages are seen as a defining political divide. But does this polarization hold worldwide? My new working paper tests this question using an original dataset of granular, geocoded election returns from 106 countries (polling station-level in 70). (1/8)

How can state and local government partnerships help to safeguard US official statistics when they are under assault? Find out in my @univpressofkansas.bsky.social book, "Counting Like a State".

Preorder for a 30% discount with code 24COUNTING here: kansaspress.ku.edu/9780700639687/

As a first-generation college student, I found it difficult to adjust to university academics and the “hidden curriculum.” How can universities help students ease this transition?

In a new RCT, we (Rebecca Johnson, Kosuke Imai) show “summer bridge” programs can be valuable tools: shorturl.at/WS9Kf