shira mitchell
@shiraamitchell.bsky.social
survey statistician at blue rose research 🏕
Pinned
Reposted by shira mitchell
Coming soon: our introduction to the politics of human rights 🥳📚
Preorder available here: www.cambridge.org/highereducat...
@sabinecarey.bsky.social
Preorder available here: www.cambridge.org/highereducat...
@sabinecarey.bsky.social
August 6, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Coming soon: our introduction to the politics of human rights 🥳📚
Preorder available here: www.cambridge.org/highereducat...
@sabinecarey.bsky.social
Preorder available here: www.cambridge.org/highereducat...
@sabinecarey.bsky.social
blog post: quantity vs quality
compare 2 surveys:
1. 100% coverage, but response probability P[R = 1 | Y] differs a lot by Y
2. Only 5% coverage, but P[R = 1 | Y] is roughly constant across Y
which would you use ? both ?
compare 2 surveys:
1. 100% coverage, but response probability P[R = 1 | Y] differs a lot by Y
2. Only 5% coverage, but P[R = 1 | Y] is roughly constant across Y
which would you use ? both ?
November 25, 2025 at 9:58 PM
blog post: quantity vs quality
compare 2 surveys:
1. 100% coverage, but response probability P[R = 1 | Y] differs a lot by Y
2. Only 5% coverage, but P[R = 1 | Y] is roughly constant across Y
which would you use ? both ?
compare 2 surveys:
1. 100% coverage, but response probability P[R = 1 | Y] differs a lot by Y
2. Only 5% coverage, but P[R = 1 | Y] is roughly constant across Y
which would you use ? both ?
new blog post: sampling the sample
we’ve focused on estimating means E[Y].
but say Y are openends ("describe how you feel about the candidate") and you want to read thru a few draws from the population, not only survey responders.
what should you do ?
we’ve focused on estimating means E[Y].
but say Y are openends ("describe how you feel about the candidate") and you want to read thru a few draws from the population, not only survey responders.
what should you do ?
November 19, 2025 at 12:59 AM
new blog post: sampling the sample
we’ve focused on estimating means E[Y].
but say Y are openends ("describe how you feel about the candidate") and you want to read thru a few draws from the population, not only survey responders.
what should you do ?
we’ve focused on estimating means E[Y].
but say Y are openends ("describe how you feel about the candidate") and you want to read thru a few draws from the population, not only survey responders.
what should you do ?
blog post: weights and MRP for voters
so far we've talked about weights and MRP for E[Y], vote choice in the population overall.
but what if you want E[Y | V = 1], vote choice in the population of voters.
what are the weights and how do you modify MRP ?
so far we've talked about weights and MRP for E[Y], vote choice in the population overall.
but what if you want E[Y | V = 1], vote choice in the population of voters.
what are the weights and how do you modify MRP ?
November 12, 2025 at 10:13 PM
blog post: weights and MRP for voters
so far we've talked about weights and MRP for E[Y], vote choice in the population overall.
but what if you want E[Y | V = 1], vote choice in the population of voters.
what are the weights and how do you modify MRP ?
so far we've talked about weights and MRP for E[Y], vote choice in the population overall.
but what if you want E[Y | V = 1], vote choice in the population of voters.
what are the weights and how do you modify MRP ?
Reposted by shira mitchell
Survey Statistics: continued struggles with equivalent weights
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/04/s...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/04/s...
Survey Statistics: continued struggles with equivalent weights | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
November 4, 2025 at 9:22 PM
Survey Statistics: continued struggles with equivalent weights
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/04/s...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/04/s...
blog post: Blue Rose Research is hiring !
We are looking for a teammate with expertise in both LLM tools and statistical modeling.
Someone who clearly communicates assumptions, results, and uncertainty. With care and kindness.
We are looking for a teammate with expertise in both LLM tools and statistical modeling.
Someone who clearly communicates assumptions, results, and uncertainty. With care and kindness.
October 28, 2025 at 8:32 PM
blog post: Blue Rose Research is hiring !
We are looking for a teammate with expertise in both LLM tools and statistical modeling.
Someone who clearly communicates assumptions, results, and uncertainty. With care and kindness.
We are looking for a teammate with expertise in both LLM tools and statistical modeling.
Someone who clearly communicates assumptions, results, and uncertainty. With care and kindness.
blog post: individualism doesn't work
typical machine learning loss looks at one individual at a time
but for MRP, we care about aggregates
typical machine learning loss looks at one individual at a time
but for MRP, we care about aggregates
October 22, 2025 at 1:30 PM
blog post: individualism doesn't work
typical machine learning loss looks at one individual at a time
but for MRP, we care about aggregates
typical machine learning loss looks at one individual at a time
but for MRP, we care about aggregates
blog post: MRPW
you've got a survey collected by someone else, and they gave you weights.
how can you use those weights in the MRP (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification) ?
you've got a survey collected by someone else, and they gave you weights.
how can you use those weights in the MRP (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification) ?
October 15, 2025 at 1:46 PM
blog post: MRPW
you've got a survey collected by someone else, and they gave you weights.
how can you use those weights in the MRP (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification) ?
you've got a survey collected by someone else, and they gave you weights.
how can you use those weights in the MRP (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification) ?
blog post: struggles with equivalent weights
you've done MRP.
someone asks you for survey weights.
how to get them ?
you've done MRP.
someone asks you for survey weights.
how to get them ?
October 7, 2025 at 11:56 PM
blog post: struggles with equivalent weights
you've done MRP.
someone asks you for survey weights.
how to get them ?
you've done MRP.
someone asks you for survey weights.
how to get them ?
blog post: beyond balancing
in midterms, voters tend to support the out party for balance
do polls still help predict midterms ? yes
in midterms, voters tend to support the out party for balance
do polls still help predict midterms ? yes
October 1, 2025 at 10:40 AM
blog post: beyond balancing
in midterms, voters tend to support the out party for balance
do polls still help predict midterms ? yes
in midterms, voters tend to support the out party for balance
do polls still help predict midterms ? yes
Reposted by shira mitchell
The ultimate New York City lover’s treasure hunt is back Friday, Oct. 17 through Sunday, Oct. 19: bit.ly/3IHnHwn
September 26, 2025 at 7:58 PM
The ultimate New York City lover’s treasure hunt is back Friday, Oct. 17 through Sunday, Oct. 19: bit.ly/3IHnHwn
blog post: Fat Bear Week
Basu's Bears is a lesson in:
1) using auxiliary information (pre-salmon-feasting weights)
2) how bad an unbiased estimator can be
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/23/s...
Basu's Bears is a lesson in:
1) using auxiliary information (pre-salmon-feasting weights)
2) how bad an unbiased estimator can be
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/23/s...
September 23, 2025 at 8:19 PM
blog post: Fat Bear Week
Basu's Bears is a lesson in:
1) using auxiliary information (pre-salmon-feasting weights)
2) how bad an unbiased estimator can be
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/23/s...
Basu's Bears is a lesson in:
1) using auxiliary information (pre-salmon-feasting weights)
2) how bad an unbiased estimator can be
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/23/s...
blog post: random sampling is not leaving
we turned to response instrument Z because random sampling is "dead"
but does this method still rely on starting with random sampling ?
we turned to response instrument Z because random sampling is "dead"
but does this method still rely on starting with random sampling ?
September 16, 2025 at 9:01 PM
blog post: random sampling is not leaving
we turned to response instrument Z because random sampling is "dead"
but does this method still rely on starting with random sampling ?
we turned to response instrument Z because random sampling is "dead"
but does this method still rely on starting with random sampling ?
blog post: random sampling is not leaving
we turned to response instrument Z because random sampling is "dead"
but does this method still rely on starting with random sampling ?
we turned to response instrument Z because random sampling is "dead"
but does this method still rely on starting with random sampling ?
September 16, 2025 at 9:01 PM
blog post: random sampling is not leaving
we turned to response instrument Z because random sampling is "dead"
but does this method still rely on starting with random sampling ?
we turned to response instrument Z because random sampling is "dead"
but does this method still rely on starting with random sampling ?
blog post on imputation (again):
we want E[Y|X] but X can be missing
@lucystats.bsky.social @sarahlotspeich.bsky.social @glenmartin.bsky.social @maartenvsmeden.bsky.social et al. say:
random imputation should use Y
deterministic imputation shouldn't
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/09/s...
we want E[Y|X] but X can be missing
@lucystats.bsky.social @sarahlotspeich.bsky.social @glenmartin.bsky.social @maartenvsmeden.bsky.social et al. say:
random imputation should use Y
deterministic imputation shouldn't
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/09/s...
September 9, 2025 at 8:22 PM
blog post on imputation (again):
we want E[Y|X] but X can be missing
@lucystats.bsky.social @sarahlotspeich.bsky.social @glenmartin.bsky.social @maartenvsmeden.bsky.social et al. say:
random imputation should use Y
deterministic imputation shouldn't
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/09/s...
we want E[Y|X] but X can be missing
@lucystats.bsky.social @sarahlotspeich.bsky.social @glenmartin.bsky.social @maartenvsmeden.bsky.social et al. say:
random imputation should use Y
deterministic imputation shouldn't
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/09/s...
I learn from every interaction with Maria. I attended a talk of hers yesterday. I highly recommend reading her work.
🧮 A new preprint of my first dissertation chapter "From disparate lists to population estimates: A multiple systems estimation workflow for mortality analysis in conflict settings” is now online.
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
September 9, 2025 at 2:59 PM
I learn from every interaction with Maria. I attended a talk of hers yesterday. I highly recommend reading her work.
blog post: connections between survey statistics and experimental design.
split-plot designs are analogous to cluster sampling.
blocking is analogous to stratification.
featuring an experiment by Arjun Potter and colleagues at NM-AIST !
split-plot designs are analogous to cluster sampling.
blocking is analogous to stratification.
featuring an experiment by Arjun Potter and colleagues at NM-AIST !
September 3, 2025 at 3:25 AM
blog post: connections between survey statistics and experimental design.
split-plot designs are analogous to cluster sampling.
blocking is analogous to stratification.
featuring an experiment by Arjun Potter and colleagues at NM-AIST !
split-plot designs are analogous to cluster sampling.
blocking is analogous to stratification.
featuring an experiment by Arjun Potter and colleagues at NM-AIST !
blog post: Thomas Lumley writes about Interviewing your Laptop
what are the problems with using LLMs as survey respondents ?
how are these similar to problems with poststratification ?
CC @tslumley.bsky.social
what are the problems with using LLMs as survey respondents ?
how are these similar to problems with poststratification ?
CC @tslumley.bsky.social
August 27, 2025 at 7:37 AM
blog post: Thomas Lumley writes about Interviewing your Laptop
what are the problems with using LLMs as survey respondents ?
how are these similar to problems with poststratification ?
CC @tslumley.bsky.social
what are the problems with using LLMs as survey respondents ?
how are these similar to problems with poststratification ?
CC @tslumley.bsky.social
Reposted by shira mitchell
We are hiring !
Data Scientist – Analytics: job-boards.greenhouse.io/blueroserese...
and
Research Analyst: job-boards.greenhouse.io/blueroserese...
Data Scientist – Analytics: job-boards.greenhouse.io/blueroserese...
and
Research Analyst: job-boards.greenhouse.io/blueroserese...
Data Scientist - Analytics (Senior and Junior)
Remote
job-boards.greenhouse.io
August 24, 2025 at 12:09 AM
We are hiring !
Data Scientist – Analytics: job-boards.greenhouse.io/blueroserese...
and
Research Analyst: job-boards.greenhouse.io/blueroserese...
Data Scientist – Analytics: job-boards.greenhouse.io/blueroserese...
and
Research Analyst: job-boards.greenhouse.io/blueroserese...
Reposted by shira mitchell
Survey Statistics: answers from the BLS
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/08/19/s...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/08/19/s...
Survey Statistics: answers from the BLS | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
August 19, 2025 at 9:52 PM
Survey Statistics: answers from the BLS
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/08/19/s...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/08/19/s...
Reposted by shira mitchell
Following @shiraamitchell.bsky.social's post on problems with multiclass calibration: statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/08/12/s...
see a proposal for a solution + related package (v0)
see a proposal for a solution + related package (v0)
August 18, 2025 at 12:05 AM
Following @shiraamitchell.bsky.social's post on problems with multiclass calibration: statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/08/12/s...
see a proposal for a solution + related package (v0)
see a proposal for a solution + related package (v0)
Reposted by shira mitchell
🤖 But wait! There's more! You can check out @shiraamitchell.bsky.social 's most recent update on the details of Calibration, posted yesterday! statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/08/12/s...
August 13, 2025 at 6:38 PM
🤖 But wait! There's more! You can check out @shiraamitchell.bsky.social 's most recent update on the details of Calibration, posted yesterday! statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/08/12/s...
Reposted by shira mitchell
🤖 Ever been a bit confused abt calibration in statistical modelling? My friend @shiraamitchell.bsky.social has got you covered!! She works on survey statistics for Things That Matter--like elections--and has kindly taken the time to explain some things!
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/06/03/s...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/06/03/s...
August 13, 2025 at 6:36 PM
🤖 Ever been a bit confused abt calibration in statistical modelling? My friend @shiraamitchell.bsky.social has got you covered!! She works on survey statistics for Things That Matter--like elections--and has kindly taken the time to explain some things!
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/06/03/s...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/06/03/s...
Reposted by shira mitchell
Survey Statistics: 2nd helpings of the 2nd flavor of calibration
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/08/12/s...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/08/12/s...
Survey Statistics: 2nd helpings of the 2nd flavor of calibration | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
August 12, 2025 at 8:46 PM
Survey Statistics: 2nd helpings of the 2nd flavor of calibration
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/08/12/s...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/08/12/s...