Séan Ó Conghaile ᚛ᚄᚕᚅ᚜
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shaneconneely.bsky.social
Séan Ó Conghaile ᚛ᚄᚕᚅ᚜
@shaneconneely.bsky.social
Overly ernest; Policy nerd; Award winning writer;
That fucking guy 🙄

Take your pick
Rules are written in blood
November 28, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Even if the link/name specific to the doc hasn't been published, there's ways the doc can leak out of the site thanks to web crawlers, indexers and scrapers - once it is publicly accessible.

This person who published it was relying on "security by obscurity" to keep the doc safe, which was stupid.
November 28, 2025 at 9:55 AM
When you put something online you choose the level of access that the public have to it.

The security isn't in the name of the doc, or the directions to the doc, it is whether you chose to publicly publish it (specifically, whether you choose to make it publicly accessible).
November 28, 2025 at 9:55 AM
That's not a valid analogy.

They could have password protected access to the document, and then it would have been.

What they did was closer to hiding a bike behind a bin down a dark alley, and then hope that nobody spots it.
November 28, 2025 at 9:55 AM
And, since the decision makers are gone, the people now in charge get the choice of either blaming the consequences on them - or take a leaf from Leo book and find a fall guy

As you can't vote in a general without Irish or GB citizenship, they target the people that can't answer back, immigrants...
November 27, 2025 at 10:00 PM
What we end up with is 1970s Soviet-style statistics, where none of them represent reality. The numbers are useful fictions that only act as political tools. Targets, where they exist, are not related to demand, but instead to what bureaucrats think are achievable.
November 27, 2025 at 10:00 PM
The housing targets are based on an assumption that population will grow at some fixed percentage each year, and then the councils use the Housing Need Demand Assessment tool to project local demand for their development plans.

But the HNDA lowballs, and councils are incentivised to under build too
November 27, 2025 at 10:00 PM
There was no link between the 2006 projections and what went into planning for the National Development Plan. Just as there was no link between the NPF figures and what was going on in the real world.

There's also no link between any of those figures and the housing4all targets
November 27, 2025 at 10:00 PM
And there was a huge push within the review to do the numbers properly this time.

But changing them required a fall guy unless they were to acknowledge that a political decision had been made that was causing very bad long term consequences.

So he attacked the CSO, which can't defend itself.
November 27, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Leo started critiquing the CSO to deflect from the political decisions that they had made regarding what they had asked the ESRI to do.

This became a problem for Leo with the review of the NDP which the FFers wanted.

They couldn't just keep using the 2016 projections that were demonstrably wrong
November 27, 2025 at 10:00 PM
As bankers say regarding when the shit hits the fan "By then, I'll be gone, you'll be gone"

And when we look about us, the decision makers from that period are gone.
November 27, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Lower short term population growth expectations allowed investment in housing and infrastructure to be deferred so that money could go towards electorally popular things like raising tax band thresholds

The majority of NDP spending was set for 2026-2030, when FG thought they wouldn't be in power
November 27, 2025 at 10:00 PM
They got the ESRI to do modeling on population projections for the NPF, and then tailored them to be extremely conservative. By 2018 we were already beating our the high growth scenario projections (as even with that, Robert Watt had his thumb on the scale reducing the possible range of growth)
November 27, 2025 at 10:00 PM
I think the issue was more that with the post-bust population crash, and much higher emmigration they walked into the National Planning Framework in 2016 believing that life beyond 2020 would be closer to 2010-15 than 2005.

That was in line with economic expectations, but divorced from reality
November 27, 2025 at 10:00 PM
You do call yourself British in your bio though.

And, am I right in thinking that the reason you don't have the passport is the Home Office fucked you when they changed their procedures?

I vaguely recall you mentioning something about that, or maybe the HO fucked you in some other way
November 27, 2025 at 5:46 PM
Just pretend you never sent the first one, or maybe send a new email from a different account.

When I used to sublet a room in my old place I used to get hundreds of emails a day.

You'd never be able to track them all or give everyone a viewing
November 27, 2025 at 5:38 PM
We'd a gobshite take out our gate recently because he was playing with his phone.

It's a 8m x 2.5m gate, with lights.

Any cyclist relying on a driver seeing them and avoiding them has already made a terrible mistake.
November 27, 2025 at 9:55 AM