Sam Crawley
@samcrawley.bsky.social
Political Science postdoc researcher at Victoria University of Wellington (New Zealand). My research focusses on politics of climate change, and on comparative politics in general.
Pinned
Sam Crawley
@samcrawley.bsky.social
· Jan 21
Online first: "Growing polarisation: ideology and attitudes towards climate change" by @hildecoffe.bsky.social @samcrawley.bsky.social & Josh Givens
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
#polisky #academicsky
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
#polisky #academicsky
Our new study in WEP shows growing polarization over climate change in Germany. Polarization associated more with people's cultural than economic positions, and is related to the rise of AfD.
An important finding - most previous evidence of increasing polarization comes from anglophone countries.
An important finding - most previous evidence of increasing polarization comes from anglophone countries.
Reposted by Sam Crawley
WOW 🤯
The number of times a State of Emergency has been declared this year in New Zealand ALREADY matches the 2025 total.
It’s February.
This is what the Climate Crisis looks like.
The number of times a State of Emergency has been declared this year in New Zealand ALREADY matches the 2025 total.
It’s February.
This is what the Climate Crisis looks like.
February 16, 2026 at 9:42 PM
WOW 🤯
The number of times a State of Emergency has been declared this year in New Zealand ALREADY matches the 2025 total.
It’s February.
This is what the Climate Crisis looks like.
The number of times a State of Emergency has been declared this year in New Zealand ALREADY matches the 2025 total.
It’s February.
This is what the Climate Crisis looks like.
Reposted by Sam Crawley
Bit late to it but if you want to know the chain of events that led to us importing gas (and charging electricity users to pay for it!!), I did this deep dive for RNZ last year www.rnz.co.nz/news/nationa...
The fuel of ‘last resort’: How imported gas became New Zealand’s first choice
It's expensive, vulnerable to price shocks and terrible for the planet. So why are we importing gas?
www.rnz.co.nz
February 10, 2026 at 1:09 AM
Bit late to it but if you want to know the chain of events that led to us importing gas (and charging electricity users to pay for it!!), I did this deep dive for RNZ last year www.rnz.co.nz/news/nationa...
Reposted by Sam Crawley
WTAF?!
I don’t want to pay for this. I don’t want to contribute to climate change. We don’t need LNG. We need more renewables and battery storage.
This makes me so mad, I cannot describe how stupid & short sighted it is because I will just end up rage-ranting.
www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/3609...
I don’t want to pay for this. I don’t want to contribute to climate change. We don’t need LNG. We need more renewables and battery storage.
This makes me so mad, I cannot describe how stupid & short sighted it is because I will just end up rage-ranting.
www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/3609...
New electricity levy ‘not a tax’, PM says as Hipkins deems proposal ‘another kick’ for Kiwi households
The Government has short-listed possible proposals for a liquefied natural gas import facility.
www.stuff.co.nz
February 9, 2026 at 6:20 AM
WTAF?!
I don’t want to pay for this. I don’t want to contribute to climate change. We don’t need LNG. We need more renewables and battery storage.
This makes me so mad, I cannot describe how stupid & short sighted it is because I will just end up rage-ranting.
www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/3609...
I don’t want to pay for this. I don’t want to contribute to climate change. We don’t need LNG. We need more renewables and battery storage.
This makes me so mad, I cannot describe how stupid & short sighted it is because I will just end up rage-ranting.
www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/3609...
Good to see these conversations starting to happen. The world has irrevocably changed, NZ needs to decide what to do now.
My take: Any "new world order" shouldn't try to replicate the old one. The flaws of the old order contributed to its demise. 1/
#nzpol
www.rnz.co.nz/news/thedeta...
My take: Any "new world order" shouldn't try to replicate the old one. The flaws of the old order contributed to its demise. 1/
#nzpol
www.rnz.co.nz/news/thedeta...
What should New Zealand do in the new world order?
Is it smarter to keep our heads down, or poke the bear as the rules change?
www.rnz.co.nz
February 2, 2026 at 11:19 PM
Good to see these conversations starting to happen. The world has irrevocably changed, NZ needs to decide what to do now.
My take: Any "new world order" shouldn't try to replicate the old one. The flaws of the old order contributed to its demise. 1/
#nzpol
www.rnz.co.nz/news/thedeta...
My take: Any "new world order" shouldn't try to replicate the old one. The flaws of the old order contributed to its demise. 1/
#nzpol
www.rnz.co.nz/news/thedeta...
For any #nzpol geeks, I finally got around to tidying up and releasing the code to extract details of candidates standing in NZ elections (1999-2023). It's now available as an #rstats package (which also includes the extracted data):
codeberg.org/sam_crawley/...
codeberg.org/sam_crawley/...
January 29, 2026 at 11:37 PM
For any #nzpol geeks, I finally got around to tidying up and releasing the code to extract details of candidates standing in NZ elections (1999-2023). It's now available as an #rstats package (which also includes the extracted data):
codeberg.org/sam_crawley/...
codeberg.org/sam_crawley/...
Reposted by Sam Crawley
The full spiked 60 Minutes CECOT package, clean & subtitled. 1/5
December 23, 2025 at 1:28 AM
The full spiked 60 Minutes CECOT package, clean & subtitled. 1/5
Reposted by Sam Crawley
The ‘polarisation narrative’ simplifies complex issues by constructing a spectrum where good should be found in the middle of diametrically opposed political positions
New preprint article by @juanroch.bsky.social, @daniel-balinhas.bsky.social and I
1/
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
New preprint article by @juanroch.bsky.social, @daniel-balinhas.bsky.social and I
1/
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
(PDF) A critique of the polarisation narrative: Expanding the limits of democracy, parties and political participation
PDF | To cite: Roch J, Balinhas, D and Mondon A (2025) 'A critique of the polarisation narrative: Expanding the limits of democracy, parties and... | Find, read and cite all the research you need on R...
www.researchgate.net
November 17, 2025 at 10:19 AM
The ‘polarisation narrative’ simplifies complex issues by constructing a spectrum where good should be found in the middle of diametrically opposed political positions
New preprint article by @juanroch.bsky.social, @daniel-balinhas.bsky.social and I
1/
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
New preprint article by @juanroch.bsky.social, @daniel-balinhas.bsky.social and I
1/
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
It is astonishing that universities have to pay academic publishers for access to the content that universities create. And everyone just accepts it.
And the current crisis is not the universities saying "we're not going to pay you anything", but "we don't want to pay so much that it bankrupts us".
And the current crisis is not the universities saying "we're not going to pay you anything", but "we don't want to pay so much that it bankrupts us".
November 14, 2025 at 2:41 AM
It is astonishing that universities have to pay academic publishers for access to the content that universities create. And everyone just accepts it.
And the current crisis is not the universities saying "we're not going to pay you anything", but "we don't want to pay so much that it bankrupts us".
And the current crisis is not the universities saying "we're not going to pay you anything", but "we don't want to pay so much that it bankrupts us".
Reposted by Sam Crawley
Honestly, the IPCA report into the police (mis)handling of the McSkimming case makes for jaw-dropping reading.
But it’s 135 pages long so I’ve read it for you.
Here’s my report on one of the most serious failures of integrity in modern policing history⬇️⬇️
But it’s 135 pages long so I’ve read it for you.
Here’s my report on one of the most serious failures of integrity in modern policing history⬇️⬇️
The inside story of how police protected a senior cop, and prosecuted his accuser instead
For years, police leadership ignored warnings about Jevon McSkimming. The IPCA has set out the chain of failures.
www.stuff.co.nz
November 11, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Honestly, the IPCA report into the police (mis)handling of the McSkimming case makes for jaw-dropping reading.
But it’s 135 pages long so I’ve read it for you.
Here’s my report on one of the most serious failures of integrity in modern policing history⬇️⬇️
But it’s 135 pages long so I’ve read it for you.
Here’s my report on one of the most serious failures of integrity in modern policing history⬇️⬇️
Reposted by Sam Crawley
When I wrote this just two-ish months ago, the premise was that the architecture of the CCRA (zero carbon act) remained, but the policies that sustained it had been hollowed out.
With the CCRA changes today, I feel like that no longer holds
www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-dept...
With the CCRA changes today, I feel like that no longer holds
www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-dept...
How Jacinda Ardern’s ‘groundbreaking’ climate law has become ‘a shell’
The Zero Carbon Act promised to lock climate ambition into law. But with key policies repealed, delayed or watered down, the once 'world-leading' legislation has become a husk of its former self.
www.rnz.co.nz
November 5, 2025 at 12:08 AM
When I wrote this just two-ish months ago, the premise was that the architecture of the CCRA (zero carbon act) remained, but the policies that sustained it had been hollowed out.
With the CCRA changes today, I feel like that no longer holds
www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-dept...
With the CCRA changes today, I feel like that no longer holds
www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-dept...
Reposted by Sam Crawley
#nzpol Unemployment reached a 9 year of 5.3%. The labour market took another turn for the worse - unemployment growing, underemployment growing, fewer hours being worked, and wages are not keeping up with inflation. This data is another sign the economy is not working. A thread
November 4, 2025 at 10:11 PM
#nzpol Unemployment reached a 9 year of 5.3%. The labour market took another turn for the worse - unemployment growing, underemployment growing, fewer hours being worked, and wages are not keeping up with inflation. This data is another sign the economy is not working. A thread
Reposted by Sam Crawley
I'm reading the new Social Sciences curriculum content and I wasn't prepared for how sad I would feel. We spent thousands of hours working with the previous iteration and the NZ history content and all that enthusiasm and excitement was just killed for something so bad.
October 28, 2025 at 8:43 PM
I'm reading the new Social Sciences curriculum content and I wasn't prepared for how sad I would feel. We spent thousands of hours working with the previous iteration and the NZ history content and all that enthusiasm and excitement was just killed for something so bad.
Reposted by Sam Crawley
#nzpol Labour is proposing to create a Capital Gains Tax on property - excluding farms and the family home. That income will help make GP visits free for the majority of people. Is that a better policy than continuing tax-free profits on, say, someone's seventh property? Absolutely. A🧵
Release: Targeted tax to grow the economy and fund free doctor’s visits
www.labour.org.nz
October 27, 2025 at 9:09 PM
#nzpol Labour is proposing to create a Capital Gains Tax on property - excluding farms and the family home. That income will help make GP visits free for the majority of people. Is that a better policy than continuing tax-free profits on, say, someone's seventh property? Absolutely. A🧵
Reposted by Sam Crawley
IN NEW ISSUE: Selecting Diversity: @fionacbarker.bsky.social & @samcrawley.bsky.social examine ethnicity, party strategies & candidate selection in New Zealand Elections (1996–2020) - buff.ly/ZQWufTG (OPEN ACCESS)
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com #polsky #polsci
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com #polsky #polsci
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
buff.ly
October 15, 2025 at 12:03 PM
IN NEW ISSUE: Selecting Diversity: @fionacbarker.bsky.social & @samcrawley.bsky.social examine ethnicity, party strategies & candidate selection in New Zealand Elections (1996–2020) - buff.ly/ZQWufTG (OPEN ACCESS)
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com #polsky #polsci
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com #polsky #polsci
Reposted by Sam Crawley
I thought I’d have a go at answering the question: what’s the flow on effect on emissions budgets from the methane cuts?
The answer was worse than I had anticipated
www.rnz.co.nz/news/nationa...
The answer was worse than I had anticipated
www.rnz.co.nz/news/nationa...
Scientists fear weaker methane target signals wider retreat from climate action
After cutting methane targets, New Zealand has a choice: shoulder the burden at huge cost - or cause more warming to the planet.
www.rnz.co.nz
October 13, 2025 at 4:00 AM
I thought I’d have a go at answering the question: what’s the flow on effect on emissions budgets from the methane cuts?
The answer was worse than I had anticipated
www.rnz.co.nz/news/nationa...
The answer was worse than I had anticipated
www.rnz.co.nz/news/nationa...
I frequently hear claims that "AI will solve climate change". We've already largely "solved" climate change, the barrier is not lack of knowledge or intelligence. It's entrenched power, and people's unwillingness to change lifestyle and cope with less convenience. AI can't help us with that.
Fukuyama debunks the AI abundance myth: we can't feed or clothe all not due to a lack of smarts, but priorities and resources.
The world simply can't sustain the abundant lifestyle AI proponents promise, lacking even the electricity to run the very AI they favor.
The world simply can't sustain the abundant lifestyle AI proponents promise, lacking even the electricity to run the very AI they favor.
October 12, 2025 at 9:17 PM
I frequently hear claims that "AI will solve climate change". We've already largely "solved" climate change, the barrier is not lack of knowledge or intelligence. It's entrenched power, and people's unwillingness to change lifestyle and cope with less convenience. AI can't help us with that.
Reposted by Sam Crawley
Fascism is an ideology. The government is fascist. But it's an unconsolidated competitive authoritarian regime, not a totalitarian one.
October 5, 2025 at 2:55 AM
Fascism is an ideology. The government is fascist. But it's an unconsolidated competitive authoritarian regime, not a totalitarian one.
This is why open source and open platforms are important.
New: Apple just removed ICEBlock, the app for reporting sightings of ICE, from its App Store after DOJ pressure. ICEBlock's developer tells 404 Media "we are determined to fight this."
"Capitulating to an authoritarian regime is never the right move."
www.404media.co/iceblock-own...
"Capitulating to an authoritarian regime is never the right move."
www.404media.co/iceblock-own...
ICEBlock Owner After Apple Removes App: ‘We Are Determined to Fight This’
Apple removed ICEBlock reportedly after direct pressure from Department of Justice officials. “I am incredibly disappointed by Apple's actions today. Capitulating to an authoritarian regime is never t...
www.404media.co
October 3, 2025 at 7:39 PM
This is why open source and open platforms are important.
Reposted by Sam Crawley
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon declines to criticise Israel for potentially detaining Kiwis in international waters, repeats that MFAT advice is to not to try and travel to Gaza.
October 2, 2025 at 11:35 PM
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon declines to criticise Israel for potentially detaining Kiwis in international waters, repeats that MFAT advice is to not to try and travel to Gaza.
Reposted by Sam Crawley
The Govt's stated reason for restricting voter enrolment in the last two weeks of the election has been speeding up the final count.
But the Electoral Commission just told the Justice Select Committee that wouldn't happen - with or without the law change it would take 20 days.
t.co/N0vRXHMbMt
But the Electoral Commission just told the Justice Select Committee that wouldn't happen - with or without the law change it would take 20 days.
t.co/N0vRXHMbMt
https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360835185/controversial-changes-voter-enrolment-wont-speed-final-count-electoral-commission
t.co
September 25, 2025 at 4:07 AM
The Govt's stated reason for restricting voter enrolment in the last two weeks of the election has been speeding up the final count.
But the Electoral Commission just told the Justice Select Committee that wouldn't happen - with or without the law change it would take 20 days.
t.co/N0vRXHMbMt
But the Electoral Commission just told the Justice Select Committee that wouldn't happen - with or without the law change it would take 20 days.
t.co/N0vRXHMbMt
Reposted by Sam Crawley
more than a decade of public scholarship has taught me that the moments when it's most tempting to react strongly and quickly are the ones when it's most useful to step back, seek context, and force yourself to think slowly. i don't always follow it, but those are my guidelines for myself.
September 10, 2025 at 9:09 PM
more than a decade of public scholarship has taught me that the moments when it's most tempting to react strongly and quickly are the ones when it's most useful to step back, seek context, and force yourself to think slowly. i don't always follow it, but those are my guidelines for myself.
Reposted by Sam Crawley
One thing that feels different right now is the difference between structural power and rhetorical power.
Usually in the aftermath of major political events (including, especially, shootings), we see contestation over framing — how each party coalition tries to make sense of the event.
(…)
Usually in the aftermath of major political events (including, especially, shootings), we see contestation over framing — how each party coalition tries to make sense of the event.
(…)
September 11, 2025 at 1:32 AM
One thing that feels different right now is the difference between structural power and rhetorical power.
Usually in the aftermath of major political events (including, especially, shootings), we see contestation over framing — how each party coalition tries to make sense of the event.
(…)
Usually in the aftermath of major political events (including, especially, shootings), we see contestation over framing — how each party coalition tries to make sense of the event.
(…)
Reposted by Sam Crawley
If I have any credibility with you from 20 years of reporting on rightwing & fascist movements, please listen when I beg you not to celebrate Charlie Kirk getting shot. Leave aside morality: this isn’t a match in dry grass, it’s a torch. We do not want what this could ignite & we would not win.
September 10, 2025 at 7:00 PM
If I have any credibility with you from 20 years of reporting on rightwing & fascist movements, please listen when I beg you not to celebrate Charlie Kirk getting shot. Leave aside morality: this isn’t a match in dry grass, it’s a torch. We do not want what this could ignite & we would not win.
Reposted by Sam Crawley
The New Zealand Election Study has been running for 35 years, polling voters (and non-voters) about their views and votes after each election since 1990.
The latest edition, released recently, covers the 2023 election. I spent the past two weeks delving through the data.
A 🧵 – with lots of 📊!
The latest edition, released recently, covers the 2023 election. I spent the past two weeks delving through the data.
A 🧵 – with lots of 📊!
September 4, 2025 at 2:59 AM
The New Zealand Election Study has been running for 35 years, polling voters (and non-voters) about their views and votes after each election since 1990.
The latest edition, released recently, covers the 2023 election. I spent the past two weeks delving through the data.
A 🧵 – with lots of 📊!
The latest edition, released recently, covers the 2023 election. I spent the past two weeks delving through the data.
A 🧵 – with lots of 📊!