Rutger
@rutje.bsky.social
And the same for the probability-ratio (figure 6b).
November 12, 2025 at 12:48 PM
And the same for the probability-ratio (figure 6b).
The SPEI24 regression with GMST and the subsequent probability ration plot change as follows. Note that I don't exactly replicate their claimed 5500x pr-ratio, there are some loose ends but it's pretty close.
With my fix the pr-ratio drops to around ~400x.
Their Fig 6a:
With my fix the pr-ratio drops to around ~400x.
Their Fig 6a:
November 12, 2025 at 12:48 PM
The SPEI24 regression with GMST and the subsequent probability ration plot change as follows. Note that I don't exactly replicate their claimed 5500x pr-ratio, there are some loose ends but it's pretty close.
With my fix the pr-ratio drops to around ~400x.
Their Fig 6a:
With my fix the pr-ratio drops to around ~400x.
Their Fig 6a:
And the matching probability-ratio.
November 12, 2025 at 12:48 PM
And the matching probability-ratio.
Fixing this flips the sign of the regression,but unsurprisingly remains insignificant. It's an odd choice to think that global temp (but not local?) captures the influence of climate change on local weather. The causality of an aggregation to global obviously acts the other way.
November 12, 2025 at 12:48 PM
Fixing this flips the sign of the regression,but unsurprisingly remains insignificant. It's an odd choice to think that global temp (but not local?) captures the influence of climate change on local weather. The causality of an aggregation to global obviously acts the other way.