Robin Brooks
@robin-j-brooks.bsky.social
Senior Fellow at @brookings.edu. Previously Chief Economist at IIF and Chief FX Strategist at Goldman Sachs.
US tariffs hit China hard. Today's just-in-time manufacturing means there's little warehouse capacity, so goods must move as soon as they're produced. This unleashes a flood of discounted stuff on the world and shifts China's tariff pain on everyone else...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-not-to...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-not-to...
November 15, 2025 at 3:41 PM
US tariffs hit China hard. Today's just-in-time manufacturing means there's little warehouse capacity, so goods must move as soon as they're produced. This unleashes a flood of discounted stuff on the world and shifts China's tariff pain on everyone else...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-not-to...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-not-to...
The EU doesn't need joint debt issuance for defense to become a feared global player. But it must show unity of purpose, which ongoing transshipments to Russia from Germany and Italy undercut. Lithuania and Poland show it's possible to crack down on these...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-does-t...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-does-t...
November 15, 2025 at 1:44 PM
The EU doesn't need joint debt issuance for defense to become a feared global player. But it must show unity of purpose, which ongoing transshipments to Russia from Germany and Italy undercut. Lithuania and Poland show it's possible to crack down on these...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-does-t...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-does-t...
Turkey is deeply divided: a secular elite on the coasts and a very religious, conservative population in the interior. The way Erdogan keeps winning elections is by using one credit boom after another to artificially boost growth. That's unsustainable...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/turkey-und...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/turkey-und...
November 15, 2025 at 12:46 PM
Turkey is deeply divided: a secular elite on the coasts and a very religious, conservative population in the interior. The way Erdogan keeps winning elections is by using one credit boom after another to artificially boost growth. That's unsustainable...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/turkey-und...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/turkey-und...
Bulgaria's exports to Kyrgyzstan. Might be something for @atanaspekanov.bsky.social to look into...
November 14, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Bulgaria's exports to Kyrgyzstan. Might be something for @atanaspekanov.bsky.social to look into...
Serbia's export miracle... to Kyrgyzstan.
November 14, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Serbia's export miracle... to Kyrgyzstan.
The EU must evolve into a geopolitical player. The path to this isn't via joint EU debt issuance. That's what high-debt countries push - for selfish reasons - and is the path to ruin. A better path is to start governing like a geopolitical force. Stop running after Russian money would be a start...
November 14, 2025 at 2:35 PM
The EU must evolve into a geopolitical player. The path to this isn't via joint EU debt issuance. That's what high-debt countries push - for selfish reasons - and is the path to ruin. A better path is to start governing like a geopolitical force. Stop running after Russian money would be a start...
Italy has taken the lead on European transshipment of goods to Russia via Kyrgyzstan. Many Europeans have clamped down on the transshipment racket, foremost the UK, Scandinavia, the Baltics and Poland. The fact that this continues - at strength - is appalling. Putin and Xi obviously love this...
November 14, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Italy has taken the lead on European transshipment of goods to Russia via Kyrgyzstan. Many Europeans have clamped down on the transshipment racket, foremost the UK, Scandinavia, the Baltics and Poland. The fact that this continues - at strength - is appalling. Putin and Xi obviously love this...
Recent weeks are a big win for Russia sanctions. US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil have widened the discount on Urals crude versus Brent. That follows the previous pattern. Whenever the West gets tough on sanctions, Urals falls and Brent does NOT rise. @econharris.bsky.social @brookings.edu
November 14, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Recent weeks are a big win for Russia sanctions. US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil have widened the discount on Urals crude versus Brent. That follows the previous pattern. Whenever the West gets tough on sanctions, Urals falls and Brent does NOT rise. @econharris.bsky.social @brookings.edu
China is invariably portrayed as the superior force in the tariff standoff with the US, but that isn't true. China had to escalate using rare earths because US tariffs are causing havoc for its exporters. The global flood of Chinese goods tells the story...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-not-to...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-not-to...
November 14, 2025 at 12:43 PM
China is invariably portrayed as the superior force in the tariff standoff with the US, but that isn't true. China had to escalate using rare earths because US tariffs are causing havoc for its exporters. The global flood of Chinese goods tells the story...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-not-to...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-not-to...
Lots of head-scratching on the recent fall in the Dollar (lhs). What's playing out is a "conventional" fall, i.e. it's led by rate differentials (rhs), which have moved against the Dollar in recent days. So this isn't about reserve currency status or anything like that. It's just cyclical noise...
November 14, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Lots of head-scratching on the recent fall in the Dollar (lhs). What's playing out is a "conventional" fall, i.e. it's led by rate differentials (rhs), which have moved against the Dollar in recent days. So this isn't about reserve currency status or anything like that. It's just cyclical noise...
The debasement trade is a new thing and we're only learning about what it really is in real time. The biggest surprise for me is how quickly the precious metals rally restarted on headlines the government shutdown is ending. A crisis for fiat currencies...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-we-kn...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-we-kn...
November 14, 2025 at 11:49 AM
The debasement trade is a new thing and we're only learning about what it really is in real time. The biggest surprise for me is how quickly the precious metals rally restarted on headlines the government shutdown is ending. A crisis for fiat currencies...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-we-kn...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-we-kn...
Big changes are playing out at the very long end of government bond yield curves. A lot of them revolve around past ECB actions to cap Italy's bond yield (pink). Italy's 10-year yield 20 years forward (10y20y) has fallen below that of Japan (red) and is closing in on Germany (blue). Unprecedented...
November 13, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Big changes are playing out at the very long end of government bond yield curves. A lot of them revolve around past ECB actions to cap Italy's bond yield (pink). Italy's 10-year yield 20 years forward (10y20y) has fallen below that of Japan (red) and is closing in on Germany (blue). Unprecedented...
The end of the US government shutdown is sparking another crazy rally in safe haven assets. That's true across all precious metals (lhs), but it's also true in currency space (rhs). Swedish Krona (red) is outperforming again due to Sweden's very low government debt level...
November 13, 2025 at 12:58 PM
The end of the US government shutdown is sparking another crazy rally in safe haven assets. That's true across all precious metals (lhs), but it's also true in currency space (rhs). Swedish Krona (red) is outperforming again due to Sweden's very low government debt level...
The end of the US government shutdown has been the catalyst for gold to back to near the high it reached before chatter at the IMF/WB meetings exactly one month ago ended its crazy spike. That's a profoundly worrying signal for policy makers. The "debasement trade" remains as strong as ever...
November 13, 2025 at 12:47 PM
The end of the US government shutdown has been the catalyst for gold to back to near the high it reached before chatter at the IMF/WB meetings exactly one month ago ended its crazy spike. That's a profoundly worrying signal for policy makers. The "debasement trade" remains as strong as ever...
We've now had US tariff on China for almost a decade, but trade openness - (X+M)/GDP - is still close to its peak. That's because Chinese goods are either being diverted to new places or are getting transshipped to the US. No de-globalization in the data...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-world-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-world-...
November 13, 2025 at 12:23 PM
We've now had US tariff on China for almost a decade, but trade openness - (X+M)/GDP - is still close to its peak. That's because Chinese goods are either being diverted to new places or are getting transshipped to the US. No de-globalization in the data...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-world-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-world-...
Sweden's government debt is only 33% of its GDP. As debt dysfunction in the Euro zone mounts and the ECB is falling increasingly under the control of high-debt countries, Sweden (white) is becoming a safe haven alternative to Switzerland (orange)...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-is-a-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-is-a-...
November 12, 2025 at 1:25 PM
Sweden's government debt is only 33% of its GDP. As debt dysfunction in the Euro zone mounts and the ECB is falling increasingly under the control of high-debt countries, Sweden (white) is becoming a safe haven alternative to Switzerland (orange)...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-is-a-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-is-a-...
The rally in gold prices is huge. Here's what we know: (i) gold rallied after traditional macro catalysts like tariff chaos in April or dovish Fed signals in August, pointing to a flight to safety; (ii) this has been all retail buying, not central banks...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/central-ba...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/central-ba...
November 12, 2025 at 1:05 PM
The rally in gold prices is huge. Here's what we know: (i) gold rallied after traditional macro catalysts like tariff chaos in April or dovish Fed signals in August, pointing to a flight to safety; (ii) this has been all retail buying, not central banks...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/central-ba...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/central-ba...
Precious metals are rising again and - as before - the Dollar is stable. The precious metals rally isn't about a flight out of USD. It's a symptom of profoundly broken fiscal policy, which is true globally, especially in the Euro zone where high-debt countries control the ECB...
November 12, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Precious metals are rising again and - as before - the Dollar is stable. The precious metals rally isn't about a flight out of USD. It's a symptom of profoundly broken fiscal policy, which is true globally, especially in the Euro zone where high-debt countries control the ECB...
The Fed on Oct 29 announced the end of QT and will shortly return to balance sheet expansion. This puts a lid on recent volatility in short-term rates, but it's a de facto subsidy for the basis trade, which is a big geopolitical vulnerability of the US...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-basis-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-basis-...
November 12, 2025 at 11:52 AM
The Fed on Oct 29 announced the end of QT and will shortly return to balance sheet expansion. This puts a lid on recent volatility in short-term rates, but it's a de facto subsidy for the basis trade, which is a big geopolitical vulnerability of the US...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-basis-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-basis-...
Lots of tall tales get told about central bank gold purchases. Central banks do buy gold, but that buying isn't widespread and is slow and steady. A handful of central banks - China (red), India (orange) and Poland (blue) - account for all gold buying...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/central-ba...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/central-ba...
November 12, 2025 at 11:33 AM
Lots of tall tales get told about central bank gold purchases. Central banks do buy gold, but that buying isn't widespread and is slow and steady. A handful of central banks - China (red), India (orange) and Poland (blue) - account for all gold buying...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/central-ba...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/central-ba...
The debate on the Euro is shifting. A growing number of mainstream economists are pointing out that ECB backstops for high-debt countries put debt on an unsustainable path. That shouldn't need saying, but in the Euro zone it does. The ECB needs profound reform and must be forced out of debt markets.
November 11, 2025 at 3:31 PM
The debate on the Euro is shifting. A growing number of mainstream economists are pointing out that ECB backstops for high-debt countries put debt on an unsustainable path. That shouldn't need saying, but in the Euro zone it does. The ECB needs profound reform and must be forced out of debt markets.
The end of the shutdown should be pulling gold prices down because it reduces odds of recession and pushes real rates up. That isn't happening. Gold prices are rising again on headlines the shutdown will soon be over. This should give all those debt aficionados - especially across Europe - pause...
November 11, 2025 at 3:21 PM
The end of the shutdown should be pulling gold prices down because it reduces odds of recession and pushes real rates up. That isn't happening. Gold prices are rising again on headlines the shutdown will soon be over. This should give all those debt aficionados - especially across Europe - pause...
The Dollar has recovered from its lows earlier this year. That's not a sign how great the US is, but - above all - a sign how weak the rest of the world is, especially the Euro. In currency space, you only have to be better than the next guy and the Dollar remains far superior to all alternatives...
November 11, 2025 at 3:04 PM
The Dollar has recovered from its lows earlier this year. That's not a sign how great the US is, but - above all - a sign how weak the rest of the world is, especially the Euro. In currency space, you only have to be better than the next guy and the Dollar remains far superior to all alternatives...
Gold has resumed its rise. Its rally isn't about central banks exiting out the Dollar. It's about growing fear in markets that huge debt burdens will be inflated away. Gold is one symptom of the "debasement trade..."
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...
November 11, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Gold has resumed its rise. Its rally isn't about central banks exiting out the Dollar. It's about growing fear in markets that huge debt burdens will be inflated away. Gold is one symptom of the "debasement trade..."
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...
Sweden's gov't debt is 33% of GDP. Switzerland's is 38%. These are the new safe havens markets are flocking to in the global debt overhang and "debasement trade." Both countries have yields way below their G10 peers when hedged back into the same currency...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-is-a-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-is-a-...
November 11, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Sweden's gov't debt is 33% of GDP. Switzerland's is 38%. These are the new safe havens markets are flocking to in the global debt overhang and "debasement trade." Both countries have yields way below their G10 peers when hedged back into the same currency...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-is-a-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-is-a-...