Robin Brooks
@robin-j-brooks.bsky.social
Senior Fellow at @brookings.edu. Previously Chief Economist at IIF and Chief FX Strategist at Goldman Sachs.
The debasement trade is a new thing and we're only learning about what it really is in real time. The biggest surprise for me is how quickly the precious metals rally restarted on headlines the government shutdown is ending. A crisis for fiat currencies...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-we-kn...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-we-kn...
November 14, 2025 at 11:49 AM
The debasement trade is a new thing and we're only learning about what it really is in real time. The biggest surprise for me is how quickly the precious metals rally restarted on headlines the government shutdown is ending. A crisis for fiat currencies...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-we-kn...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-we-kn...
Big changes are playing out at the very long end of government bond yield curves. A lot of them revolve around past ECB actions to cap Italy's bond yield (pink). Italy's 10-year yield 20 years forward (10y20y) has fallen below that of Japan (red) and is closing in on Germany (blue). Unprecedented...
November 13, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Big changes are playing out at the very long end of government bond yield curves. A lot of them revolve around past ECB actions to cap Italy's bond yield (pink). Italy's 10-year yield 20 years forward (10y20y) has fallen below that of Japan (red) and is closing in on Germany (blue). Unprecedented...
The end of the US government shutdown is sparking another crazy rally in safe haven assets. That's true across all precious metals (lhs), but it's also true in currency space (rhs). Swedish Krona (red) is outperforming again due to Sweden's very low government debt level...
November 13, 2025 at 12:58 PM
The end of the US government shutdown is sparking another crazy rally in safe haven assets. That's true across all precious metals (lhs), but it's also true in currency space (rhs). Swedish Krona (red) is outperforming again due to Sweden's very low government debt level...
The end of the US government shutdown has been the catalyst for gold to back to near the high it reached before chatter at the IMF/WB meetings exactly one month ago ended its crazy spike. That's a profoundly worrying signal for policy makers. The "debasement trade" remains as strong as ever...
November 13, 2025 at 12:47 PM
The end of the US government shutdown has been the catalyst for gold to back to near the high it reached before chatter at the IMF/WB meetings exactly one month ago ended its crazy spike. That's a profoundly worrying signal for policy makers. The "debasement trade" remains as strong as ever...
We've now had US tariff on China for almost a decade, but trade openness - (X+M)/GDP - is still close to its peak. That's because Chinese goods are either being diverted to new places or are getting transshipped to the US. No de-globalization in the data...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-world-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-world-...
November 13, 2025 at 12:23 PM
We've now had US tariff on China for almost a decade, but trade openness - (X+M)/GDP - is still close to its peak. That's because Chinese goods are either being diverted to new places or are getting transshipped to the US. No de-globalization in the data...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-world-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-world-...
Sweden's government debt is only 33% of its GDP. As debt dysfunction in the Euro zone mounts and the ECB is falling increasingly under the control of high-debt countries, Sweden (white) is becoming a safe haven alternative to Switzerland (orange)...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-is-a-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-is-a-...
November 12, 2025 at 1:25 PM
Sweden's government debt is only 33% of its GDP. As debt dysfunction in the Euro zone mounts and the ECB is falling increasingly under the control of high-debt countries, Sweden (white) is becoming a safe haven alternative to Switzerland (orange)...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-is-a-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-is-a-...
The rally in gold prices is huge. Here's what we know: (i) gold rallied after traditional macro catalysts like tariff chaos in April or dovish Fed signals in August, pointing to a flight to safety; (ii) this has been all retail buying, not central banks...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/central-ba...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/central-ba...
November 12, 2025 at 1:05 PM
The rally in gold prices is huge. Here's what we know: (i) gold rallied after traditional macro catalysts like tariff chaos in April or dovish Fed signals in August, pointing to a flight to safety; (ii) this has been all retail buying, not central banks...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/central-ba...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/central-ba...
Precious metals are rising again and - as before - the Dollar is stable. The precious metals rally isn't about a flight out of USD. It's a symptom of profoundly broken fiscal policy, which is true globally, especially in the Euro zone where high-debt countries control the ECB...
November 12, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Precious metals are rising again and - as before - the Dollar is stable. The precious metals rally isn't about a flight out of USD. It's a symptom of profoundly broken fiscal policy, which is true globally, especially in the Euro zone where high-debt countries control the ECB...
The Fed on Oct 29 announced the end of QT and will shortly return to balance sheet expansion. This puts a lid on recent volatility in short-term rates, but it's a de facto subsidy for the basis trade, which is a big geopolitical vulnerability of the US...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-basis-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-basis-...
November 12, 2025 at 11:52 AM
The Fed on Oct 29 announced the end of QT and will shortly return to balance sheet expansion. This puts a lid on recent volatility in short-term rates, but it's a de facto subsidy for the basis trade, which is a big geopolitical vulnerability of the US...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-basis-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-basis-...
Lots of tall tales get told about central bank gold purchases. Central banks do buy gold, but that buying isn't widespread and is slow and steady. A handful of central banks - China (red), India (orange) and Poland (blue) - account for all gold buying...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/central-ba...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/central-ba...
November 12, 2025 at 11:33 AM
Lots of tall tales get told about central bank gold purchases. Central banks do buy gold, but that buying isn't widespread and is slow and steady. A handful of central banks - China (red), India (orange) and Poland (blue) - account for all gold buying...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/central-ba...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/central-ba...
The debate on the Euro is shifting. A growing number of mainstream economists are pointing out that ECB backstops for high-debt countries put debt on an unsustainable path. That shouldn't need saying, but in the Euro zone it does. The ECB needs profound reform and must be forced out of debt markets.
November 11, 2025 at 3:31 PM
The debate on the Euro is shifting. A growing number of mainstream economists are pointing out that ECB backstops for high-debt countries put debt on an unsustainable path. That shouldn't need saying, but in the Euro zone it does. The ECB needs profound reform and must be forced out of debt markets.
The end of the shutdown should be pulling gold prices down because it reduces odds of recession and pushes real rates up. That isn't happening. Gold prices are rising again on headlines the shutdown will soon be over. This should give all those debt aficionados - especially across Europe - pause...
November 11, 2025 at 3:21 PM
The end of the shutdown should be pulling gold prices down because it reduces odds of recession and pushes real rates up. That isn't happening. Gold prices are rising again on headlines the shutdown will soon be over. This should give all those debt aficionados - especially across Europe - pause...
The Dollar has recovered from its lows earlier this year. That's not a sign how great the US is, but - above all - a sign how weak the rest of the world is, especially the Euro. In currency space, you only have to be better than the next guy and the Dollar remains far superior to all alternatives...
November 11, 2025 at 3:04 PM
The Dollar has recovered from its lows earlier this year. That's not a sign how great the US is, but - above all - a sign how weak the rest of the world is, especially the Euro. In currency space, you only have to be better than the next guy and the Dollar remains far superior to all alternatives...
Gold has resumed its rise. Its rally isn't about central banks exiting out the Dollar. It's about growing fear in markets that huge debt burdens will be inflated away. Gold is one symptom of the "debasement trade..."
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...
November 11, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Gold has resumed its rise. Its rally isn't about central banks exiting out the Dollar. It's about growing fear in markets that huge debt burdens will be inflated away. Gold is one symptom of the "debasement trade..."
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...
Sweden's gov't debt is 33% of GDP. Switzerland's is 38%. These are the new safe havens markets are flocking to in the global debt overhang and "debasement trade." Both countries have yields way below their G10 peers when hedged back into the same currency...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-is-a-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-is-a-...
November 11, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Sweden's gov't debt is 33% of GDP. Switzerland's is 38%. These are the new safe havens markets are flocking to in the global debt overhang and "debasement trade." Both countries have yields way below their G10 peers when hedged back into the same currency...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-is-a-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-is-a-...
Reposted by Robin Brooks
just realized @vmrconstancio.bsky.social had a very insightful reply to Brooks over at Substacks re "should the Fed let QT run a bit longer"
substack.com/@vconstancio...
substack.com/@vconstancio...
November 10, 2025 at 4:43 PM
just realized @vmrconstancio.bsky.social had a very insightful reply to Brooks over at Substacks re "should the Fed let QT run a bit longer"
substack.com/@vconstancio...
substack.com/@vconstancio...
Precious metals are having the best day in some time. That's because markets think the US gov't shutdown will end. This is price action worth taking note of. As markets downgrade their odds for US recession, precious metals start rising again because people start worrying about inflation...
November 10, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Precious metals are having the best day in some time. That's because markets think the US gov't shutdown will end. This is price action worth taking note of. As markets downgrade their odds for US recession, precious metals start rising again because people start worrying about inflation...
The premium the US pays on 10-year Treasuries over its G10 peers after those are hedged back into US Dollar is down to its lowest level in many years. The US fiscal picture is bad, but it's not as bad as in many other advanced economies. So - on a relative basis - the US still smells like roses...
November 10, 2025 at 3:30 PM
The premium the US pays on 10-year Treasuries over its G10 peers after those are hedged back into US Dollar is down to its lowest level in many years. The US fiscal picture is bad, but it's not as bad as in many other advanced economies. So - on a relative basis - the US still smells like roses...
The "debasement trade" is a misnomer. What's really going on is a desperate hunt for any and all kind of safe havens from debt monetization, which looks increasingly likely across much of the G10. Sweden is emerging as a key safe haven. It's convenience yield just fell below Switzerland...
November 10, 2025 at 2:00 PM
The "debasement trade" is a misnomer. What's really going on is a desperate hunt for any and all kind of safe havens from debt monetization, which looks increasingly likely across much of the G10. Sweden is emerging as a key safe haven. It's convenience yield just fell below Switzerland...
Today marks the 6 month anniversary of my daily Substack posts. Key themes: (i) gov't manipulation of markets is always bad; (ii) words and deeds of politicians often differ; (iii) the way we talk to each other on genuinely difficult topics is appalling...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/my-six-mon...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/my-six-mon...
November 10, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Today marks the 6 month anniversary of my daily Substack posts. Key themes: (i) gov't manipulation of markets is always bad; (ii) words and deeds of politicians often differ; (iii) the way we talk to each other on genuinely difficult topics is appalling...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/my-six-mon...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/my-six-mon...
Germany's AfD is up to 26% in the latest polls from 20% in the election in February. The CDU has repeatedly tried to shift to a tougher stance on immigration - in an effort to stop the rise of the AfD - but every time it does that it gets called racist and worse. So the AfD will keep rising...
November 9, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Germany's AfD is up to 26% in the latest polls from 20% in the election in February. The CDU has repeatedly tried to shift to a tougher stance on immigration - in an effort to stop the rise of the AfD - but every time it does that it gets called racist and worse. So the AfD will keep rising...
Reposted by Robin Brooks
🤔🤔
China has used the basis trade to unsettle the Treasury market and get Trump to fold on tariffs. We need to shut the basis trade down, not backstop it with a return to Fed balance sheet expansion. A piece inspired by the amazing @vmrconstancio.bsky.social.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-basis-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-basis-...
November 9, 2025 at 1:52 PM
🤔🤔
The basis trade is just a carry trade between Treasuries and Treasury futures. The enemy of carry trades is volatility. We need more of that to shut down the basis trade, not a return to Fed balance sheet expansion to artificially suppress volatility. We need more volatility to end the basis trade.
November 9, 2025 at 2:25 PM
The basis trade is just a carry trade between Treasuries and Treasury futures. The enemy of carry trades is volatility. We need more of that to shut down the basis trade, not a return to Fed balance sheet expansion to artificially suppress volatility. We need more volatility to end the basis trade.
China has used the basis trade to unsettle the Treasury market and get Trump to fold on tariffs. We need to shut the basis trade down, not backstop it with a return to Fed balance sheet expansion. A piece inspired by the amazing @vmrconstancio.bsky.social.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-basis-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-basis-...
November 9, 2025 at 1:50 PM
China has used the basis trade to unsettle the Treasury market and get Trump to fold on tariffs. We need to shut the basis trade down, not backstop it with a return to Fed balance sheet expansion. A piece inspired by the amazing @vmrconstancio.bsky.social.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-basis-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-basis-...
The survival of the Euro is wrongly linked to avoidance of debt crises, creating a pretend universe where high-debt countries muddle on. Europe has to change course on this.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-princi...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-german...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-the-e...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-princi...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-german...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-the-e...
November 8, 2025 at 1:33 PM
The survival of the Euro is wrongly linked to avoidance of debt crises, creating a pretend universe where high-debt countries muddle on. Europe has to change course on this.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-princi...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-german...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-the-e...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-princi...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-german...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-the-e...