Rob Bowley
@robbowley.net
Product & Tech Leadership Advisor, Consultant, Coach & Mentor
Tech, Software Development, Science, History, Economics, Politics
https://blog.robbowley.net
https://www.linkedin.com/in/robertbowley
https://pragmaticpartners.co.uk
Manchester, UK
Tech, Software Development, Science, History, Economics, Politics
https://blog.robbowley.net
https://www.linkedin.com/in/robertbowley
https://pragmaticpartners.co.uk
Manchester, UK
Pinned
Rob Bowley
@robbowley.net
· Nov 16
Lots of new followers so thought I'd do an intro 🙂
This is me, without hat, in my garden, on a rainy morning in Manchester 🐝, UK
Been working in tech for 25 years - software engineer then various leadership roles. Nowadays I'm a product & tech leadership advisor, coach, consultant.
1/4
This is me, without hat, in my garden, on a rainy morning in Manchester 🐝, UK
Been working in tech for 25 years - software engineer then various leadership roles. Nowadays I'm a product & tech leadership advisor, coach, consultant.
1/4
Duolingo share price now down 63% since May. TBF it doesn't seem to (now) be down to user perception re: their AI first disaster. They're still growing and revenue matched targets. More seems investors want payback and CEO wants to focus on growth
November 6, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Duolingo share price now down 63% since May. TBF it doesn't seem to (now) be down to user perception re: their AI first disaster. They're still growing and revenue matched targets. More seems investors want payback and CEO wants to focus on growth
I'm sympathetic to what the author is trying to do, but how many times have I seen new tech manifestos that basically say do Agile as it was actually intended in the first place
The Agentic Manifesto: Engineering in the Era of Autonomy
Traditional SDLC fails for autonomous AI. The Agentic Manifesto introduces the Agentic Delivery Lifecycle (ADLC)—a new operating model for engineering, governing, and tuning non-deterministic systems ...
caseywest.com
November 5, 2025 at 6:37 PM
I'm sympathetic to what the author is trying to do, but how many times have I seen new tech manifestos that basically say do Agile as it was actually intended in the first place
Amen.
How many times I've witnessed the almost seasonal transformations in orgs, fixing the problems cause be the last one.
How many times I've seen orgs pendulum swing from one op model to another, once they realised what they lost (Chesterton's Fence)
How many times I've witnessed the almost seasonal transformations in orgs, fixing the problems cause be the last one.
How many times I've seen orgs pendulum swing from one op model to another, once they realised what they lost (Chesterton's Fence)
Transformations never work. Even when they do.
Find out why transformations are a fundamentally flawed approach to organizational change:
Find out why transformations are a fundamentally flawed approach to organizational change:
Why Transformations Never Succeed: Even When They Do
A fundamentally flawed approach to change
medium.com
November 5, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Amen.
How many times I've witnessed the almost seasonal transformations in orgs, fixing the problems cause be the last one.
How many times I've seen orgs pendulum swing from one op model to another, once they realised what they lost (Chesterton's Fence)
How many times I've witnessed the almost seasonal transformations in orgs, fixing the problems cause be the last one.
How many times I've seen orgs pendulum swing from one op model to another, once they realised what they lost (Chesterton's Fence)
Reposted by Rob Bowley
DX's latest study into AI-assisted coding says the same as DORA's recent report - AI won’t save you from your (broken) engineering culture.
But it goes further: the biggest gains come from better ways of working, not AI.
Wrote up my analysis here 👇
But it goes further: the biggest gains come from better ways of working, not AI.
Wrote up my analysis here 👇
Findings from DX’s 2025 report: AI won’t save you from your engineering culture | Rob Bowley
blog.robbowley.net
November 5, 2025 at 10:09 AM
DX's latest study into AI-assisted coding says the same as DORA's recent report - AI won’t save you from your (broken) engineering culture.
But it goes further: the biggest gains come from better ways of working, not AI.
Wrote up my analysis here 👇
But it goes further: the biggest gains come from better ways of working, not AI.
Wrote up my analysis here 👇
DX's latest study into AI-assisted coding says the same as DORA's recent report - AI won’t save you from your (broken) engineering culture.
But it goes further: the biggest gains come from better ways of working, not AI.
Wrote up my analysis here 👇
But it goes further: the biggest gains come from better ways of working, not AI.
Wrote up my analysis here 👇
Findings from DX’s 2025 report: AI won’t save you from your engineering culture | Rob Bowley
blog.robbowley.net
November 5, 2025 at 10:09 AM
DX's latest study into AI-assisted coding says the same as DORA's recent report - AI won’t save you from your (broken) engineering culture.
But it goes further: the biggest gains come from better ways of working, not AI.
Wrote up my analysis here 👇
But it goes further: the biggest gains come from better ways of working, not AI.
Wrote up my analysis here 👇
John Lewis Xmas advert hits. Well done.
November 4, 2025 at 8:51 PM
John Lewis Xmas advert hits. Well done.
Quite - if I'm getting in touch with support, it's because I need to speak to someone. I've very rarely found AI chatbots help answer my question because I've already looked at your FAQs!
The promise of AI chat assistants: they solve 90% of the problems users have (by looking up the docs and telling them)
My reality: need to spend 10 minutes trying to get to a human, to solve an issue I need customer support to look into
Around minute 8 I sign up to a competitor
My reality: need to spend 10 minutes trying to get to a human, to solve an issue I need customer support to look into
Around minute 8 I sign up to a competitor
November 4, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Quite - if I'm getting in touch with support, it's because I need to speak to someone. I've very rarely found AI chatbots help answer my question because I've already looked at your FAQs!
The New Calculus of AI-based Coding
A collection of posts by Joe Magerramov
blog.joemag.dev
November 4, 2025 at 3:46 PM
I have been quoted by Martin Fowler! 😍
I can die now
I can die now
Concerns about LLM-enabled browsers, the different perspectives on AI-Coding, and looking back at the loss of an iconic helmet.
martinfowler.com/articles/202...
martinfowler.com/articles/202...
Fragments Nov 3
a short post
martinfowler.com
November 4, 2025 at 7:26 AM
I have been quoted by Martin Fowler! 😍
I can die now
I can die now
Reposted by Rob Bowley
November 3, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Unbridled techno-optimism is nothing new to SV - in fact, it's why it's been so successful.
Thomas Pynchon’s novel, Against the Day is great for understanding America’s enduring faith in progress - and how that same spirit often leads it astray.
www.goodreads.com/book/show/40...
Thomas Pynchon’s novel, Against the Day is great for understanding America’s enduring faith in progress - and how that same spirit often leads it astray.
www.goodreads.com/book/show/40...
Against the Day
Spanning the period between the Chicago World's Fair of…
www.goodreads.com
November 3, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Unbridled techno-optimism is nothing new to SV - in fact, it's why it's been so successful.
Thomas Pynchon’s novel, Against the Day is great for understanding America’s enduring faith in progress - and how that same spirit often leads it astray.
www.goodreads.com/book/show/40...
Thomas Pynchon’s novel, Against the Day is great for understanding America’s enduring faith in progress - and how that same spirit often leads it astray.
www.goodreads.com/book/show/40...
A long, but good, well researched and balanced article
Are We In An AI Bubble? The Bull Case and Bear Case, Explained
AI is both a genuine technological revolution and a massive financial bubble, and the defining question is whether miraculous progress can outrun the catastrophic, multi-trillion-dollar cost required ...
www.theneuron.ai
November 3, 2025 at 7:41 AM
A long, but good, well researched and balanced article
Someone on LinkedIn replied me “No one was ever argued out of a belief by evidence” – right after I’d shared a pile of evidence that contradicted his belief.
Reminds me of something a friend’s dad said: “Don’t argue with an idiot – they’ve got more experience at it than you.”
Reminds me of something a friend’s dad said: “Don’t argue with an idiot – they’ve got more experience at it than you.”
November 2, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Someone on LinkedIn replied me “No one was ever argued out of a belief by evidence” – right after I’d shared a pile of evidence that contradicted his belief.
Reminds me of something a friend’s dad said: “Don’t argue with an idiot – they’ve got more experience at it than you.”
Reminds me of something a friend’s dad said: “Don’t argue with an idiot – they’ve got more experience at it than you.”
The next time someone tells you AI has resulted in massive job losses, share this article with them.
"If the question is whether we are seeing widespread AI-driven displacement of roles across a range of sectors and countries, then the answer is no."
"If the question is whether we are seeing widespread AI-driven displacement of roles across a range of sectors and countries, then the answer is no."
The AI Shift: where are all the job losses?
A macroeconomic change isn’t clear yet but payroll data shows some types of work are already being displaced
www.ft.com
November 1, 2025 at 10:38 AM
The next time someone tells you AI has resulted in massive job losses, share this article with them.
"If the question is whether we are seeing widespread AI-driven displacement of roles across a range of sectors and countries, then the answer is no."
"If the question is whether we are seeing widespread AI-driven displacement of roles across a range of sectors and countries, then the answer is no."
In their earnings calls, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta said “AI demand outstrips supply”, but as far as I can tell, most spend is internal or tied to close partners like OpenAI and Anthropic.
Their capex surge reflects an AI arms race and capacity build-ahead, not broad enterprise uptake.
Their capex surge reflects an AI arms race and capacity build-ahead, not broad enterprise uptake.
October 31, 2025 at 6:04 PM
In their earnings calls, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta said “AI demand outstrips supply”, but as far as I can tell, most spend is internal or tied to close partners like OpenAI and Anthropic.
Their capex surge reflects an AI arms race and capacity build-ahead, not broad enterprise uptake.
Their capex surge reflects an AI arms race and capacity build-ahead, not broad enterprise uptake.
Andrej Karpathy, who coined “vibe coding”:
- AGI isn’t close
- nor are real AI agents
- today’s models are just smart autocomplete
- real progress will take a decade of hard engineering, cleaner data, and less hype
/ht @jasongorman.bsky.social
- AGI isn’t close
- nor are real AI agents
- today’s models are just smart autocomplete
- real progress will take a decade of hard engineering, cleaner data, and less hype
/ht @jasongorman.bsky.social
Andrej Karpathy — “We’re summoning ghosts, not building animals”
YouTube video by Dwarkesh Patel
www.youtube.com
October 31, 2025 at 12:34 PM
Andrej Karpathy, who coined “vibe coding”:
- AGI isn’t close
- nor are real AI agents
- today’s models are just smart autocomplete
- real progress will take a decade of hard engineering, cleaner data, and less hype
/ht @jasongorman.bsky.social
- AGI isn’t close
- nor are real AI agents
- today’s models are just smart autocomplete
- real progress will take a decade of hard engineering, cleaner data, and less hype
/ht @jasongorman.bsky.social
Been using more of Claude recently. One thing that's stood out is how unreliable it is (down at the moment)
status.claude.com
status.claude.com
October 31, 2025 at 10:29 AM
Been using more of Claude recently. One thing that's stood out is how unreliable it is (down at the moment)
status.claude.com
status.claude.com
Wrote this over 2 years ago, remains as true today as it did then.
What's changed:
- LLMs have become more useful
- It's clear we're reaching the limits of transformer-based AI archectures
Path to AGI remains no more than theory.
What's changed:
- LLMs have become more useful
- It's clear we're reaching the limits of transformer-based AI archectures
Path to AGI remains no more than theory.
Why you shouldn’t lose sleep over the existential threat of AI | Rob Bowley
blog.robbowley.net
October 31, 2025 at 7:34 AM
Wrote this over 2 years ago, remains as true today as it did then.
What's changed:
- LLMs have become more useful
- It's clear we're reaching the limits of transformer-based AI archectures
Path to AGI remains no more than theory.
What's changed:
- LLMs have become more useful
- It's clear we're reaching the limits of transformer-based AI archectures
Path to AGI remains no more than theory.
According to @theregister.com, Microsoft's latest SEC filing suggests OpenAI lost $11.5bn in Q3 2025
OpenAI reportedly did ~$4.3bn revenue in H1 2025, so perhaps $2-2.5bn/quarter. Would mean they're spending roughly 5-6x their revenue.
🤯
OpenAI reportedly did ~$4.3bn revenue in H1 2025, so perhaps $2-2.5bn/quarter. Would mean they're spending roughly 5-6x their revenue.
🤯
Microsoft earnings suggest $11.5B OpenAI quarterly loss
: Satya has also delivered Sam most of the cash he promised
www.theregister.com
October 30, 2025 at 6:38 PM
According to @theregister.com, Microsoft's latest SEC filing suggests OpenAI lost $11.5bn in Q3 2025
OpenAI reportedly did ~$4.3bn revenue in H1 2025, so perhaps $2-2.5bn/quarter. Would mean they're spending roughly 5-6x their revenue.
🤯
OpenAI reportedly did ~$4.3bn revenue in H1 2025, so perhaps $2-2.5bn/quarter. Would mean they're spending roughly 5-6x their revenue.
🤯
Having read most of these, well worth a read. I expect I will be sharing lots
I'm still brain-dumping, but by request, here's an index of the "AI-Ready Software Developer" blog posts so far for convenience.
codemanship.wordpress.com/2025/10/30/t...
codemanship.wordpress.com/2025/10/30/t...
The AI-Ready Software Developer – Index
Some folks have asked if there’s a single blog page where they can navigate the “AI-Ready” brain dumps I’ve been doing in no particular order, so – for convenience …
codemanship.wordpress.com
October 30, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Having read most of these, well worth a read. I expect I will be sharing lots
Really like this, nothing new to those already familiar with these practices but nicely framed - good resource to share with folks
The Eight Wastes of Modern Software Delivery - Matt Shaw
What's really slowing your team down and how to fix it.
matthew-shaw.github.io
October 29, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Really like this, nothing new to those already familiar with these practices but nicely framed - good resource to share with folks