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Rob Bowley

@robbowley.net

2.2K followers 1.1K following 5.1K posts

Product & Tech Leadership Advisor, Consultant, Coach & Mentor Tech, Software Development, Science, History, Economics, Politics https://blog.robbowley.net https://www.linkedin.com/in/robertbowley https://pragmaticpartners.co.uk Manchester, UK

blog.robbowley.net

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Rob Bowley @robbowley.net · Nov 16

Lots of new followers so thought I'd do an intro 🙂

This is me, without hat, in my garden, on a rainy morning in Manchester 🐝, UK

Been working in tech for 25 years - software engineer then various leadership roles. Nowadays I'm a product & tech leadership advisor, coach, consultant.

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Selfi of Rob Bowley on a rainy morning in Manchester with his garden in the background

Rob Bowley @robbowley.net · 38m

Errr

Rob Bowley @robbowley.net · 8h

The dotcom bubble left us fibre that still powers the internet.

The AI boom might leave us a pile of short-lived silicon and silent cathedrals of compute – monuments to a forgotten era.

The web was open. AI isn’t. That may prove the real difference.

After the AI boom: what might we be left with? | Rob Bowley

blog.robbowley.net

Rob Bowley @robbowley.net · 23h

Went with my son to 6th form open days. The Computer Science workbooks mentioned Waterfall, Spiral, RAD, Agile and even XP – but interestingly, not Scrum. That probably dates it to around 2003–2006, when Agile was new and RAD was still hanging on.

So 20 years out of date 😳

Rob Bowley @robbowley.net · 23h

Came to make same point you beat me to it 👏

Rob Bowley @robbowley.net · 1d

The AI boom risks leaving us with a pile of short-lived silicon and data centres that may be difficult to repurpose once the current wave passes.

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Rob Bowley @robbowley.net · 1d

While some of the supporting power and networking infrastructure will remain useful, much of what’s being built is highly specialised and tightly coupled to the current generation of AI hardware.

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Rob Bowley @robbowley.net · 1d

AI data centres also need to be built for extremely high power density and advanced cooling, making them harder to repurpose if demand or chip architectures shift.

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Rob Bowley @robbowley.net · 1d

In contrast, much of today’s AI investment is going into expensive GPUs with a lifespan of just two to four years. These chips not only become obsolete quickly but also physically wear out faster under constant high load.

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Rob Bowley @robbowley.net · 1d

However, the dotcom overbuild left durable infrastructure - fibre networks and interconnects - with multi-decade lifespans. Those assets became the backbone of the broadband and cloud eras.

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Rob Bowley @robbowley.net · 1d

Some people are saying the potential overbuild because of AI might not be a bad thing because, like the dotcom era, it could leave behind infrastructure we’ll benefit from for a long time.

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Rob Bowley @robbowley.net · 1d

BBC News - 'It's going to be really bad': Fears over AI bubble bursting grow in Silicon Valley

A tangled web of deals stokes AI bubble fears in Silicon Valley

Some are worried that the rapid rise in the value of AI tech companies may be a bubble waiting to burst.

Reposted by Rob Bowley

Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 2d

Premium: The AI Bubble's promises are impossible. NVIDIA's customers are running out of money, GPUs die in 3-5 years, most 1GW data centers will never get built, and OpenAI's Abilene data center doesn't won't have the power it needs before 2028 - if it ever does.
www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-bubbl...

The AI Bubble's Impossible Promises

Readers: I’ve done a very generous “free” portion of this newsletter, but I do recommend paying for premium to get the in-depth analysis underpinning the intro. That being said, I want as many people ...

www.wheresyoured.at

Reposted by Rob Bowley

Dave Farley @davefarley77.bsky.social · 3d

AI programming’s worrying stat: 70% of developers trust the output. We need an intervention.

New research from DORA confirms AI is ubiquitous. 95% of developers rely on it, and 80% report productivity gains. But there is a massive and dangerous disconnect.

🧵 1/5

Rob Bowley @robbowley.net · 3d

Indeed, the diet fad gets the credit when sustainable habits is what led to weight loss.

As is often the case with any successful technology change, perhaps it was the org change all along.

Maybe it wasn’t the tech after all | Rob Bowley

blog.robbowley.net

Rob Bowley @robbowley.net · 3d

There are of course already lots of known, proven good practices and fundamentals that already unlock smaller teams, which the vast majority of the industry are not following.

Which, as it happens, are also essential to get any benefit from AI assisted software development

Rob Bowley @robbowley.net · 3d

Depends what mean by optimistic e.g

- Augmenting humans and making us more productive by e.g. 20-30% - I'm optimistic
- The next industrial revolution, fundamentally transforming the way we live and work, massively boosting GDP and economies, major job displacement & new roles - I'm less optimistic

Rob Bowley @robbowley.net · 3d

Learning based on ongoing feedback feels like a biggie still

Rob Bowley @robbowley.net · 3d

They’re not necessarily wrong about AI’s potential, but their view is often abstracted from delivery, adoption, and change.

Those who’ve led in complex systems tend to be more balanced, grounded in what it actually takes to make things work.

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Rob Bowley @robbowley.net · 3d

They’re more often academics, commentators, futurists, solopreneurs, or techies/hackers.

They’re not familiar with the organisational friction, dependencies, governance, or accountability that come with leading teams and delivering real outcomes.

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Rob Bowley @robbowley.net · 3d

An interesting observation - the people I see most optimistic about the impact of AI (aside from those selling it, of course) tend not to have held roles that involve working in teams, leading organisations, or being accountable for delivery.

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Rob Bowley @robbowley.net · 4d

I have seen just as awful code written by humans

Rob Bowley @robbowley.net · 4d

One of my all-time favourite books is Working Effectively with Legacy Code by Michael Feathers, which is all about how to safely get tests around legacy code (defined as code with no tests)

www.oreilly.com/library/view...

Working Effectively with Legacy Code

This book provides programmers with the ability to cost-effectively handle common legacy code problems without having to go through the hugely expensive task of rewriting all... - Selection from Worki...

www.oreilly.com

Rob Bowley @robbowley.net · 4d

The thing about having e.g.a rules.md file and when it decides to actually follow it...

Rob Bowley @robbowley.net · 4d

Not weird, me too! When I was more hands on, refactoring messy code was always the bit I enjoyed the most

Rob Bowley @robbowley.net · 4d

What's galling is hearing AI leaders/boosters brush off overbuild or bubble risks as if they don’t matter

The BoE warns a burst could dry up finance for households and businesses.

When people with power say ‘don’t worry’, what they really mean is ‘we’ll be fine’

Bank of England warns of growing risk that AI bubble could burst

Possibility of ‘sharp market correction has increased’, says Bank’s financial policy committee

www.theguardian.com