Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛
banner
rmcelreath.bsky.social
Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛
@rmcelreath.bsky.social
Anthropologist - Bayesian modeling - science reform - cat and cooking content too - Director @ MPI for evolutionary anthropology https://www.eva.mpg.de/ecology/staff/richard-mcelreath/
“You see, the endless renovation of the Stuttgart train station is a symbol of our late-capitalist condition: the project is always ‘in progress,’ yet nothing ever progresses. The construction site itself becomes the true destination.”
November 19, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Yes - on track for next year
November 18, 2025 at 6:14 PM
I had to check what I recommend in my book. And Poison priors (right) are also cursed. I'm working on something new with Gelman and Vehtari, so will make a note to review our examples for some consistency in these contexts.
November 18, 2025 at 3:07 PM
she's doing her best
November 18, 2025 at 12:24 PM
meanwhile pigeons be like
November 18, 2025 at 12:24 PM
Thanks all for the comments. It would be good for beginner section to end with random and fixed effects models, and for advanced to start at same place. But not sure the scheduling could work for that. I will try to build out a calendar and see what can be done.
November 18, 2025 at 9:04 AM
I did: Agresti & Coull. Wald’s complete class theorem is prob most famous eg. Also all the “empirical bayes” and related. Irony is bayesians used to be obsessed with uninformative priors, but informative priors ended up being more useful.
November 18, 2025 at 8:04 AM
During the 20th century, frequentists proved on their own terms that Bayes estimators have good properties. The Bayes-Freq wars are over. Everyone lost. Agesti and Coull paper for the curious: doi.org/10.2307/2685...
Approximate Is Better than "Exact" for Interval Estimation of Binomial Proportions on JSTOR
Alan Agresti, Brent A. Coull, Approximate Is Better than "Exact" for Interval Estimation of Binomial Proportions, The American Statistician, Vol. 52, No. 2 (May, 1998), pp. 119-126
doi.org
November 17, 2025 at 6:34 PM
Not sure. Will try as always. Previous lectures still online though: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
November 17, 2025 at 6:55 AM
The students are more diverse now. When I taught at UC Davis, they were mostly population biology and ecology phd students. Not sure that's the reason though. Basic coding skills are in general much better now, so not all bad.
November 17, 2025 at 6:52 AM
Worry: Advanced section may will need some refresher of beginner content. So will need a new lecture for that.
November 17, 2025 at 6:41 AM
This would be more work for me, but possibly a lot better for learning goals.
November 17, 2025 at 6:39 AM
November 17, 2025 at 6:33 AM
when it’s near done i will add some cream
November 13, 2025 at 5:12 PM