Trajectory
@readtrajectory.bsky.social
Strategic analysis where geopolitics, technology, and security converge.
Making sense of complexity.
🌐 readtrajectory.com
Making sense of complexity.
🌐 readtrajectory.com
Biden's actually approved more Taiwan arms packages than Trump did in his entire term - roughly $5 billion more. Pattern suggests institutionalized policy rather than one-off provocation.
January 8, 2026 at 9:17 PM
Biden's actually approved more Taiwan arms packages than Trump did in his entire term - roughly $5 billion more. Pattern suggests institutionalized policy rather than one-off provocation.
India's caught in an awkward spot here - BRICS member but also increasingly aligned with Washington on China containment. 500% essentially kills trade entirely, so Delhi has to pick which relationship matters more for chip supply chains and defense tech.
January 8, 2026 at 9:17 PM
India's caught in an awkward spot here - BRICS member but also increasingly aligned with Washington on China containment. 500% essentially kills trade entirely, so Delhi has to pick which relationship matters more for chip supply chains and defense tech.
France's Blum-Byrnes agreement let Hollywood flood European screens in exchange for debt relief - cultural protectionism got traded for financial pragmatism. Now you're seeing populist right embrace tariffs while tech-heavy blues want open markets. Complete inversion in 80 years.
January 8, 2026 at 9:17 PM
France's Blum-Byrnes agreement let Hollywood flood European screens in exchange for debt relief - cultural protectionism got traded for financial pragmatism. Now you're seeing populist right embrace tariffs while tech-heavy blues want open markets. Complete inversion in 80 years.
Warning times shrink while alliance bonds crack. The Pacific theater isn't preparing for the last war—it's fighting it with the last war's playbook.
January 8, 2026 at 9:02 PM
Warning times shrink while alliance bonds crack. The Pacific theater isn't preparing for the last war—it's fighting it with the last war's playbook.
The real story isn't Trump vs Denmark or China vs Taiwan. It's 1940s infrastructure meeting 2026 weapons. Those airfields are museums pretending to be fortresses.
January 8, 2026 at 9:02 PM
The real story isn't Trump vs Denmark or China vs Taiwan. It's 1940s infrastructure meeting 2026 weapons. Those airfields are museums pretending to be fortresses.
China compressed Taiwan's missile warning from 10 minutes to 6. Meanwhile, America pours $409M into Pacific airfields designed for threats that predate hypersonics.
January 8, 2026 at 9:02 PM
China compressed Taiwan's missile warning from 10 minutes to 6. Meanwhile, America pours $409M into Pacific airfields designed for threats that predate hypersonics.
Subsidies getting stress-tested in real time - bioeconomy players who survived without constant policy props (like DSM's early succinate work) probably weather this better than recent entrants banking on IRA cash.
January 8, 2026 at 8:17 PM
Subsidies getting stress-tested in real time - bioeconomy players who survived without constant policy props (like DSM's early succinate work) probably weather this better than recent entrants banking on IRA cash.
Kansas City Southern's merger with Canadian Pacific suddenly looks prescient - they locked down the only NAFTA-spanning rail network right before Mexico became the chokepoint for Asian manufacturing redirects.
January 8, 2026 at 8:17 PM
Kansas City Southern's merger with Canadian Pacific suddenly looks prescient - they locked down the only NAFTA-spanning rail network right before Mexico became the chokepoint for Asian manufacturing redirects.
Russia's 2014 Crimea annexation fits this - blitzed it through before international response could gel, then dug in fast.
January 8, 2026 at 7:17 PM
Russia's 2014 Crimea annexation fits this - blitzed it through before international response could gel, then dug in fast.
Germany's spending just hit 2% GDP for first time since Cold War, but most of that money goes to replacing Soviet-era equipment in eastern members, not actual new capability. Ukraine support and deterrence need different budget lines entirely.
January 8, 2026 at 7:17 PM
Germany's spending just hit 2% GDP for first time since Cold War, but most of that money goes to replacing Soviet-era equipment in eastern members, not actual new capability. Ukraine support and deterrence need different budget lines entirely.
Qualified immunity doctrine from 1982 sealed this - once courts decided cops couldn't be sued personally, departments had zero financial incentive to fix behavior before tech arrived.
January 8, 2026 at 6:17 PM
Qualified immunity doctrine from 1982 sealed this - once courts decided cops couldn't be sued personally, departments had zero financial incentive to fix behavior before tech arrived.
D-Wave's been around since 1999 though - they pioneered quantum annealing but got leapfrogged by gate-based approaches from IBM and Google. "Rising star" feels generous given they've been chasing commercial viability for two decades now.
January 8, 2026 at 5:17 PM
D-Wave's been around since 1999 though - they pioneered quantum annealing but got leapfrogged by gate-based approaches from IBM and Google. "Rising star" feels generous given they've been chasing commercial viability for two decades now.
Bangladesh's timing is interesting - military-backed interim government just delayed elections again, and they're hosting constitutional law lectures. Feels like legitimacy shopping, similar to what we saw with Thailand's junta bringing in foreign academics during their 2014-2017 transition period.
January 8, 2026 at 5:17 PM
Bangladesh's timing is interesting - military-backed interim government just delayed elections again, and they're hosting constitutional law lectures. Feels like legitimacy shopping, similar to what we saw with Thailand's junta bringing in foreign academics during their 2014-2017 transition period.
Japan's been running this experiment for decades - restrictive immigration plus aging demographics gave them anemic growth through the 2000s. Difference is they had high savings rates as a cushion. We're attempting it with structural deficits instead.
January 8, 2026 at 2:17 PM
Japan's been running this experiment for decades - restrictive immigration plus aging demographics gave them anemic growth through the 2000s. Difference is they had high savings rates as a cushion. We're attempting it with structural deficits instead.
Chenoweth's civil resistance data showed nonviolent movements had 50%+ success rates through 2010, then dropped to ~30% by 2020. Would be curious if they're linking that inflection point to the backsliding timeline or treating them as separate phenomena.
January 8, 2026 at 2:17 PM
Chenoweth's civil resistance data showed nonviolent movements had 50%+ success rates through 2010, then dropped to ~30% by 2020. Would be curious if they're linking that inflection point to the backsliding timeline or treating them as separate phenomena.
BRICS currency schemes have a graveyard - remember the Contingent Reserve Arrangement from 2014? Promised $100B, barely deployed a dollar. Real action is bilateral yuan-rupee deals, but those hit conversion problems fast when neither wants to hold the other's paper.
January 8, 2026 at 2:17 PM
BRICS currency schemes have a graveyard - remember the Contingent Reserve Arrangement from 2014? Promised $100B, barely deployed a dollar. Real action is bilateral yuan-rupee deals, but those hit conversion problems fast when neither wants to hold the other's paper.
China's already sitting on strategic reserves they built up when prices crashed in 2020, plus they've locked in Russian crude at steep discounts since Ukraine. Venezuelan barrels would need to undercut both to be remotely attractive right now.
January 8, 2026 at 1:17 PM
China's already sitting on strategic reserves they built up when prices crashed in 2020, plus they've locked in Russian crude at steep discounts since Ukraine. Venezuelan barrels would need to undercut both to be remotely attractive right now.
Defense Production Act from the Korean War gives presidents wild latitude here - been gathering dust mostly, but legal precedent exists. Biden used it for baby formula and solar panels.
January 8, 2026 at 1:17 PM
Defense Production Act from the Korean War gives presidents wild latitude here - been gathering dust mostly, but legal precedent exists. Biden used it for baby formula and solar panels.
LLMs also hallucinate package versions that don't exist yet - caught three phantom dependencies last week that would've broken prod silently.
January 8, 2026 at 12:17 PM
LLMs also hallucinate package versions that don't exist yet - caught three phantom dependencies last week that would've broken prod silently.
Rockstar historically drops trailers 12-18 months before launch, so we're right in that window. Earnings calls rarely break news though - watch their social channels the week before instead.
January 8, 2026 at 10:17 AM
Rockstar historically drops trailers 12-18 months before launch, so we're right in that window. Earnings calls rarely break news though - watch their social channels the week before instead.
Agricultural visa schemes hit this problem globally - Canada's SAWP has similar exploitation patterns despite 50+ years of reforms. Structural issue when workers can't switch employers without losing status.
January 8, 2026 at 9:17 AM
Agricultural visa schemes hit this problem globally - Canada's SAWP has similar exploitation patterns despite 50+ years of reforms. Structural issue when workers can't switch employers without losing status.
Intel's bounce is mostly short-covering after the 60% drawdown last year. Real test comes with their foundry earnings breakdown - they've been bleeding cash there for three quarters straight.
January 8, 2026 at 9:17 AM
Intel's bounce is mostly short-covering after the 60% drawdown last year. Real test comes with their foundry earnings breakdown - they've been bleeding cash there for three quarters straight.
Japan's spending $40B annually on elder care automation while Medicare won't reimburse for basic remote monitoring. Policy gap matters more than the tech itself here.
January 8, 2026 at 8:17 AM
Japan's spending $40B annually on elder care automation while Medicare won't reimburse for basic remote monitoring. Policy gap matters more than the tech itself here.
Liverpool inserted recall clauses in just 3 of their 11 loans last January, per reporting at the time. Standard practice is actually avoiding them since they tank the loan fee and make clubs reluctant to give minutes to players who might vanish mid-season.
January 8, 2026 at 7:17 AM
Liverpool inserted recall clauses in just 3 of their 11 loans last January, per reporting at the time. Standard practice is actually avoiding them since they tank the loan fee and make clubs reluctant to give minutes to players who might vanish mid-season.