Trajectory
@readtrajectory.bsky.social
Strategic analysis where geopolitics, technology, and security converge.
Making sense of complexity.
🌐 readtrajectory.com
Making sense of complexity.
🌐 readtrajectory.com
Australia's delicate balance. Can it survive Trump's economic loyalty test?
Australia's China-US Tightrope Faces Trump 2.0 Economic...
Australia's $368 billion submarine program locks it into US alliance dependency while China remains its largest trading partner. Trump 2.0's economic loyalty tests are eliminating the space for strategic hedging.
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December 30, 2025 at 4:39 AM
Australia's delicate balance. Can it survive Trump's economic loyalty test?
Satellite signals under siege. The technology that won wars may soon lose them.
GPS Jamming Threat to Western Precision Weapons
Western militaries built three decades of doctrine around satellite-guided precision. Russia and China built their counter-strategies around denying it. The weapons still work—but the advantage they promised is eroding faster than the modernization meant to restore it.
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December 30, 2025 at 4:38 AM
Satellite signals under siege. The technology that won wars may soon lose them.
Sahel's military alliance: a show of force or a recipe for disaster? The region's jihadist crisis demands more than just joint operations.
Sahel Junta Alliance: Why AES Military Offensive Will Fail
Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have launched joint military operations against jihadists with a force one-twentieth the size counterinsurgency requires. The offensive is not a strategy for victory—it is a performance of sovereignty that the three military governments cannot afford to abandon,...
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December 30, 2025 at 4:37 AM
Sahel's military alliance: a show of force or a recipe for disaster? The region's jihadist crisis demands more than just joint operations.
Shaking up regional security. Allies and non-alignment converge.
Australia-Indonesia Defense Treaty Reshapes Indo-Pacific...
The new Australia-Indonesia defense treaty creates strategic ambiguity that complicates adversary planning while preserving Indonesian non-alignment—a model that could reshape regional security cooperation beyond traditional alliance structures.
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December 29, 2025 at 2:00 AM
Shaking up regional security. Allies and non-alignment converge.
Australia mines rare earths, but China controls the refining. The path to true sovereignty is paved with tough choices.
Can Australia Break China's Rare Earth Processing Monopoly?
Australia extracts rare earths then ships them to China for processing, creating circular dependency. The processing challenge is surmountable, but requires abandoning the fiction that mining equals sovereignty and accepting the true costs of strategic independence.
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December 29, 2025 at 1:59 AM
Australia mines rare earths, but China controls the refining. The path to true sovereignty is paved with tough choices.
AUKUS, but where's the dock? Australia's nuclear sub dreams face harsh realities.
Australia's Nuclear Submarine Maintenance Reality Check...
Three years after AUKUS, Australia lacks the dry docks, workforce, and industrial base to service nuclear submarines. The gap between political promises and physical reality grows wider each year.
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December 29, 2025 at 1:58 AM
AUKUS, but where's the dock? Australia's nuclear sub dreams face harsh realities.
Australia's military expenditure: Impressive, yet woefully unprepared. What's behind this perplexing disconnect?
Is Australia's Military Ready for Taiwan Crisis? The...
Australia's military exists to signal commitment through spectacular failure, not to win wars. This explains why $50 billion in annual spending hasn't produced readiness for high-intensity conflict.
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December 29, 2025 at 1:57 AM
Australia's military expenditure: Impressive, yet woefully unprepared. What's behind this perplexing disconnect?
Carriers, missiles, Taiwan. A high-stakes game of military might and strategic positioning.
Can China Sink US Carriers? Taiwan Defense Analysis
China's long-range anti-ship missiles can now theoretically reach American carriers thousands of miles from its coast. But whether this capability translates into strategic advantage depends on kill chains, countermeasures, and political will—variables that neither side has tested in combat.
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December 28, 2025 at 10:44 PM
Carriers, missiles, Taiwan. A high-stakes game of military might and strategic positioning.
Three clocks, three powers. Can any be synchronized before the collision?
US China Russia Next Decade: Strategic Competition Analysis 2025-2035
Three great powers operate on three incompatible timescales. Washington resets every four years, Beijing plans through 2035, Moscow thinks in generations. The next decade will reveal which clock keeps better time—and whether any of them can be synchronized before collision.
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December 28, 2025 at 10:42 PM
Three clocks, three powers. Can any be synchronized before the collision?
Pacific Islands: The new global battleground. Who will emerge victorious?
Pacific Islands China US Competition: Empowerment or Destabilization?
Pacific Island nations with populations smaller than provincial towns have discovered their geography commands superpower attention. The bidding war between Beijing and Washington delivers resources—but at what cost to the states caught between?
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December 28, 2025 at 10:30 PM
Pacific Islands: The new global battleground. Who will emerge victorious?
Sudan's peace accords: a deceiving dance of power. The guns hold the real cards in this game.
Why Sudan Peace Agreements Fail: Structural Analysis
Sudan has signed more than a dozen major peace accords since 1972. Each promised transformation. Each delivered reconfiguration. The problem isn't failed implementation—it's a political economy where durable peace is structurally irrational for those with guns.
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December 28, 2025 at 7:12 AM
Sudan's peace accords: a deceiving dance of power. The guns hold the real cards in this game.
Japan's defense spending surge - a deterrent to China or a strategic gamble? The answer lies in the complexities beyond the budget numbers.
Japan Defense Budget 2025: Deterrence vs Chinese Missiles
Tokyo's record defence budget buys genuine capabilities that will complicate Chinese military planning. But constitutional constraints, industrial limitations, and alliance dependencies mean the billions purchase time and options—not security guarantees. The honest answer: Japan is creating both...
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December 28, 2025 at 7:12 AM
Japan's defense spending surge - a deterrent to China or a strategic gamble? The answer lies in the complexities beyond the budget numbers.
China's carrier dreams clash with Taiwan's reality. Will Beijing's naval ambitions trigger a miscalculation?
China Nine Carrier Program: Blue Water Navy or Taiwan Miscalculation
The Pentagon says China will field nine aircraft carriers by 2035—the largest Indo-Pacific carrier buildup since World War II. But building ships optimized for blue-water prestige while Taiwan sits 100 miles from the mainland reveals a strategic culture at war with strategic geography.
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December 27, 2025 at 7:57 AM
China's carrier dreams clash with Taiwan's reality. Will Beijing's naval ambitions trigger a miscalculation?
Japan's defense spending climbs, but its constitution remains a riddle. The alliance with the US may thrive on this enigma.
Japan Defence Budget 2026: Constitutional Limits and US Alliance
Japan's record military spending buys missiles and command integration with American forces. What it cannot buy is constitutional clarity. That ambiguity may be the alliance's most valuable asset—a deterrent that works precisely because no one knows its limits.
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December 27, 2025 at 7:01 AM
Japan's defense spending climbs, but its constitution remains a riddle. The alliance with the US may thrive on this enigma.
As Taiwan's strategic value evolves, the ground beneath its security shifts. What comes next could reshape the global tech landscape.
Taiwan Strategic Value: When Support Structures Might Change
Taiwan's semiconductor monopoly has made the island indispensable to its international partners. But American industrial policy is explicitly designed to end that dependence. As chip production diversifies and military costs rise, the calculus sustaining Taiwan's security is quietly shifting.
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December 26, 2025 at 6:51 AM
As Taiwan's strategic value evolves, the ground beneath its security shifts. What comes next could reshape the global tech landscape.
The EU and the US are at odds over digital governance. This clash could upend the transatlantic alliance.
US Sanctions on EU Officials: End of Transatlantic Cooperation?
When America sanctions Europeans for enforcing European law, it is not merely disagreeing about policy—it is declaring that the European conception of digital governance is itself illegitimate. The transatlantic relationship has survived many disputes. It may not survive this one.
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December 25, 2025 at 11:13 PM
The EU and the US are at odds over digital governance. This clash could upend the transatlantic alliance.
Drones at warp speed. Can the US keep up with China's industrial might?
CENTCOM Drone Task Force vs China: Can the US Scale Fast Enough?
CENTCOM's new task forces promise rapid drone deployment, but the sixty-day timeline addresses bureaucratic friction while ignoring industrial reality. China produces ten million drones annually. No procurement reform can bridge that chasm.
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December 25, 2025 at 11:11 PM
Drones at warp speed. Can the US keep up with China's industrial might?
Sahel's new military junta: Allies or accelerating collapse? The mysterious consequences of inviting Russian contractors to the region.
Sahel Junta Alliance: Can AES Defeat Jihadists or Accelerate Collapse?
Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have formed a mutual defense pact, expelled Western forces, and invited Russian contractors. The result is not victory over jihadists but accelerating state failure—and that may be precisely the point.
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December 24, 2025 at 11:13 PM
Sahel's new military junta: Allies or accelerating collapse? The mysterious consequences of inviting Russian contractors to the region.
Warships at Venezuela's doorstep, but not a shot fired. What's the real game afoot?
US Venezuela Blockade: Why the Naval Deployment Doesn't Match the Mission
The USS Gerald R. Ford sits off Venezuela with enough firepower to destroy but not enough forces to occupy. This gap between capability and intent reveals Washington's true objectives—and their limits.
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December 24, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Warships at Venezuela's doorstep, but not a shot fired. What's the real game afoot?
Russia's not-so-secret weapon against NATO. The Kremlin's cosmic gambit to disrupt the West.
Starlink Vulnerability: Russia EW Threat to NATO and US Pacific Ops
Russia's growing ability to jam SpaceX's satellite constellation threatens not just Ukraine's battlefield communications but the entire architecture of American and NATO military operations from Eastern Europe to the Pacific.
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December 24, 2025 at 10:53 PM
Russia's not-so-secret weapon against NATO. The Kremlin's cosmic gambit to disrupt the West.
Donald Trump's formative years shaped him in unexpected ways. The survival system that emerged from these crucibles explains the leader—and his limits.
What Made Donald Trump: Formative Experiences & Core Beliefs
Roy Cohn taught him to sue. Fred Trump taught him that love was leverage. Military academy taught him that institutions betray. The survival system that emerged from these crucibles explains the leader—and his limits.
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December 24, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Donald Trump's formative years shaped him in unexpected ways. The survival system that emerged from these crucibles explains the leader—and his limits.
Forged in fire, tempered by chaos. The making of a leader who sees the world as a personal battle.
What Made Vladimir Putin: Psychology and Strategy
A childhood in post-siege Leningrad, abandonment in Dresden, and the chaos of 1990s Russia forged a leader who experiences geopolitics as personal survival. Understanding Putin's formative crucibles explains decisions that have reshaped Europe.
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December 24, 2025 at 8:46 AM
Forged in fire, tempered by chaos. The making of a leader who sees the world as a personal battle.
A leader forged in the flames of persecution. The Party's fears, not its power, now drive him.
Xi Jinping: Formative Experiences That Shaped China's Leader
The most powerful Chinese leader since Mao was forged not by privilege but by persecution. His seven years in a cave village during the Cultural Revolution—and the destruction of his family—created a ruler who fears the Party's weakness more than its strength.
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December 24, 2025 at 8:29 AM
A leader forged in the flames of persecution. The Party's fears, not its power, now drive him.
Sovereignty or submission? The Sahel's choice to embrace Russia may come at a higher cost than expected.
Sahel Alliance Analysis: AES, Russia, and Regional Security
Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have expelled French forces, quit ECOWAS, and embraced Russian mercenaries in the name of sovereignty. But their Alliance of Sahel States has outsourced enforcement to a partner with no interest in their success—only their perpetual dependence.
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December 24, 2025 at 12:38 AM
Sovereignty or submission? The Sahel's choice to embrace Russia may come at a higher cost than expected.
Darfur's genocide. A broken system. How Sudan's RSF evades intervention.
Sudan RSF Genocide: Why Humanitarian Intervention Failed
The United States has formally declared genocide in Darfur. The RSF continues killing. Sudan reveals that the humanitarian intervention system was never designed to work against adversaries with great-power protection and independent revenue streams.
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December 23, 2025 at 11:49 PM
Darfur's genocide. A broken system. How Sudan's RSF evades intervention.