Rajiv Sethi
@rajivsethi.bsky.social
Economics | Barnard | Columbia | Santa Fe Institute | http://www.columbia.edu/~rs328/ | https://rajivsethi.substack.com/ | https://tinyurl.com/shadowsofdoubt
New post on the detection of wash trading:
open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
The Detection of Wash Trading
Consider the following set of trades executed in quick succession on Polymarket at around 6pm on November 1, just a couple of days before polls opened on election day:
open.substack.com
November 12, 2025 at 11:06 PM
New post on the detection of wash trading:
open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
Reposted by Rajiv Sethi
Accessible to all! ...my paper in Journal of Econ Perspectives on World Bank's 1993 East Asian "Miracle" report ("Too Much A Product of Its TIme?") (www.aeaweb.org/full_issue.p...). @cgdev.org @mclem.org @arvind2011.bsky.social @justsand.bsky.social
www.aeaweb.org
November 6, 2025 at 10:30 PM
Accessible to all! ...my paper in Journal of Econ Perspectives on World Bank's 1993 East Asian "Miracle" report ("Too Much A Product of Its TIme?") (www.aeaweb.org/full_issue.p...). @cgdev.org @mclem.org @arvind2011.bsky.social @justsand.bsky.social
Reposted by Rajiv Sethi
Direct link to paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Network-Based Detection of Wash Trading
Wash trading refers to the practice of buying and selling securities without taking a net position, for the purpose of artificially inflating recorded volume. I
papers.ssrn.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Direct link to paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Reposted by Rajiv Sethi
Have been waiting for this paper to come out ever since Hongyao told me about it -- more academics should be taking advantage of such open data to answer important questions
Coverage of the paper by @ellebeyoud.bsky.social of Bloomberg here (gift link):
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 7, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Have been waiting for this paper to come out ever since Hongyao told me about it -- more academics should be taking advantage of such open data to answer important questions
Coverage of the paper by @ellebeyoud.bsky.social of Bloomberg here (gift link):
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 7, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Coverage of the paper by @ellebeyoud.bsky.social of Bloomberg here (gift link):
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Just posted a paper on the detection of wash trading with an application to Polymarket (joint with Allen Sirolly, Hongyao Ma, Yash Kanoria):
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Network-Based Detection of Wash Trading
Wash trading refers to the practice of buying and selling securities without taking a net position, for the purpose of artificially inflating recorded volume. I
papers.ssrn.com
November 7, 2025 at 11:27 AM
Just posted a paper on the detection of wash trading with an application to Polymarket (joint with Allen Sirolly, Hongyao Ma, Yash Kanoria):
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
New post on prediction markets and the New York City mayor's race: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
Markets and the Mayor's Race
We’re just a few days away from discovering who will be the next mayor of New York City, but according to at least one major prediction market, it’s essentially a foregone conclusion:
open.substack.com
November 1, 2025 at 12:31 PM
New post on prediction markets and the New York City mayor's race: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
Reposted by Rajiv Sethi
"What appeals to me most abt American traditions is the creedal nature of national identity, the Declaration’s insistence on universal equality…the rights enumerated in our Constitution…I consider innovation…growth…sustained material prosperity…downstream of free expression." @rajivsethi.bsky.social
The Compact
According to media reports, the federal government has sent nine research universities a memorandum of understanding and promised significant benefits—including preferential access to grants and feder...
rajivsethi.substack.com
October 5, 2025 at 10:59 PM
"What appeals to me most abt American traditions is the creedal nature of national identity, the Declaration’s insistence on universal equality…the rights enumerated in our Constitution…I consider innovation…growth…sustained material prosperity…downstream of free expression." @rajivsethi.bsky.social
New post on the compact open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
The Compact
According to media reports, the federal government has sent nine research universities a memorandum of understanding and promised significant benefits—including preferential access to grants and contr...
open.substack.com
October 3, 2025 at 6:02 PM
New post on the compact open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
Reposted by Rajiv Sethi
CASBS's Creating a New Moral Political Economy program (2020-23) offers an open access repository allowing students & educators to expand their thinking about moral political economy issues & questions.
Scholars: add your syllabus & other digital resources to the repository.
👉 mpe.stanford.edu
Scholars: add your syllabus & other digital resources to the repository.
👉 mpe.stanford.edu
February 26, 2025 at 11:05 PM
CASBS's Creating a New Moral Political Economy program (2020-23) offers an open access repository allowing students & educators to expand their thinking about moral political economy issues & questions.
Scholars: add your syllabus & other digital resources to the repository.
👉 mpe.stanford.edu
Scholars: add your syllabus & other digital resources to the repository.
👉 mpe.stanford.edu
New post on gun supply open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
Gun Supply
A recent issue of Vital City is on the supply side of America’s gun problem.
open.substack.com
September 18, 2025 at 9:50 AM
New post on gun supply open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
Latest issue of @vitalcitynyc.bsky.social is on gun supply, lots of interesting contributions, here is mine (with Dan O'Flaherty) www.vitalcitynyc.org/articles/whe...
Vital City | When Products Can Kill
The unfortunate limits of legal gun regulation
www.vitalcitynyc.org
September 10, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Latest issue of @vitalcitynyc.bsky.social is on gun supply, lots of interesting contributions, here is mine (with Dan O'Flaherty) www.vitalcitynyc.org/articles/whe...
Reposted by Rajiv Sethi
Check out Interactive Economics, an open access project co-directed by CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social & devoted to learning economics & the dynamics of interactions among people, resources & the environment. Four modules released & more coming soon
Play with it 👉 www.interactiveeconomics.org
Play with it 👉 www.interactiveeconomics.org
September 9, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Check out Interactive Economics, an open access project co-directed by CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social & devoted to learning economics & the dynamics of interactions among people, resources & the environment. Four modules released & more coming soon
Play with it 👉 www.interactiveeconomics.org
Play with it 👉 www.interactiveeconomics.org
Reposted by Rajiv Sethi
CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social has a terrific Substack called Imperfect Information
In this post, Rajiv describes his CASBS year project on how messages & signals we send & receive become adopted or contested, & their sometimes unintended consequences
Check it out & read more Rajiv posts ⬇️
In this post, Rajiv describes his CASBS year project on how messages & signals we send & receive become adopted or contested, & their sometimes unintended consequences
Check it out & read more Rajiv posts ⬇️
New post on the coming academic year and an ongoing project open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
The Interpretation of Signals
One of the themes that I have explored from time to time in this newsletter is the interpretation of signals.
open.substack.com
September 6, 2025 at 3:35 PM
CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social has a terrific Substack called Imperfect Information
In this post, Rajiv describes his CASBS year project on how messages & signals we send & receive become adopted or contested, & their sometimes unintended consequences
Check it out & read more Rajiv posts ⬇️
In this post, Rajiv describes his CASBS year project on how messages & signals we send & receive become adopted or contested, & their sometimes unintended consequences
Check it out & read more Rajiv posts ⬇️
Reposted by Rajiv Sethi
Topical in a couple of different ways, but also points out a major failure point of our collective information processing systems: we infer from financial metrics much more than what their generative process warrants.
Much like omens in other cultures... 1/
Much like omens in other cultures... 1/
New post on celebrity unions, papal conclaves, and financial markets
open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
Celebrity Unions and Price Volatility
When Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce announced their engagement on Instagram a couple of days ago, it was 1pm on the East Coast and the price of a contract referencing the event was trading at around 40...
open.substack.com
August 29, 2025 at 2:59 AM
Topical in a couple of different ways, but also points out a major failure point of our collective information processing systems: we infer from financial metrics much more than what their generative process warrants.
Much like omens in other cultures... 1/
Much like omens in other cultures... 1/
New post on celebrity unions, papal conclaves, and financial markets
open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
Celebrity Unions and Price Volatility
When Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce announced their engagement on Instagram a couple of days ago, it was 1pm on the East Coast and the price of a contract referencing the event was trading at around 40...
open.substack.com
August 28, 2025 at 10:59 PM
New post on celebrity unions, papal conclaves, and financial markets
open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
New post on the coming academic year and an ongoing project open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
The Interpretation of Signals
One of the themes that I have explored from time to time in this newsletter is the interpretation of signals.
open.substack.com
August 26, 2025 at 7:54 PM
New post on the coming academic year and an ongoing project open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
Reposted by Rajiv Sethi
Instead of regurgitating the bromide that LLMs are just "autocomplete on steroids" (even by people who know better), maybe we can actually engage in some public education. The problem with genAI is better expressed through a classic computer science concept, known as SYMBOL GROUNDING. 🧵
August 12, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Instead of regurgitating the bromide that LLMs are just "autocomplete on steroids" (even by people who know better), maybe we can actually engage in some public education. The problem with genAI is better expressed through a classic computer science concept, known as SYMBOL GROUNDING. 🧵
New post on a presidential memorandum open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
Merit, Mission, and a Memorandum
A presidential memorandum issued on August 7 asserts the following:
open.substack.com
August 12, 2025 at 10:31 PM
New post on a presidential memorandum open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
Call for Papers: 20th Annual Conference on Economic Growth and Development
www.isid.ac.in/~acegd/acegd...
It's a great conference, I'm on the program committee and hoping to attend this year
www.isid.ac.in/~acegd/acegd...
It's a great conference, I'm on the program committee and hoping to attend this year
20th Annual Conference on Economic Growth and Development - Home
www.isid.ac.in
August 2, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Call for Papers: 20th Annual Conference on Economic Growth and Development
www.isid.ac.in/~acegd/acegd...
It's a great conference, I'm on the program committee and hoping to attend this year
www.isid.ac.in/~acegd/acegd...
It's a great conference, I'm on the program committee and hoping to attend this year
New post on the Columbia deal:
open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
The Columbia Deal
On July 23rd, Columbia University signed an agreement with the federal government that covers a broad range of issues including hiring and admissions practices, disciplinary procedures, curricular ove...
open.substack.com
July 27, 2025 at 9:13 PM
New post on the Columbia deal:
open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
New post on the work of Jens Ludwig on gun violence open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
Guns + Violence
Jens Ludwig is a founder and director of the Crime Lab at the University of Chicago and the author of a recent book Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence. He appeared a c...
open.substack.com
July 25, 2025 at 7:39 AM
New post on the work of Jens Ludwig on gun violence open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
Reposted by Rajiv Sethi
I made a quick Russian interference explainer. When CIA director Ratcliffe started down this road, I wrote 3000 words about the Senate reports, the data sets from big tech, etc.
Now Tulsi’s doing her thing…so here’s a quick video about her “Obama treason” voting machine claims vs reality. 🤷🏻♀️
Now Tulsi’s doing her thing…so here’s a quick video about her “Obama treason” voting machine claims vs reality. 🤷🏻♀️
July 20, 2025 at 8:14 PM
I made a quick Russian interference explainer. When CIA director Ratcliffe started down this road, I wrote 3000 words about the Senate reports, the data sets from big tech, etc.
Now Tulsi’s doing her thing…so here’s a quick video about her “Obama treason” voting machine claims vs reality. 🤷🏻♀️
Now Tulsi’s doing her thing…so here’s a quick video about her “Obama treason” voting machine claims vs reality. 🤷🏻♀️
New post on a second act for PredictIt: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
A Second Act for PredictIt
PredictIt was the most active and widely referenced political prediction market in the United States for the seven years following its launch in 2015.
open.substack.com
July 16, 2025 at 2:31 AM
New post on a second act for PredictIt: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...