It's me, Brian!
@qebrian.bsky.social
Chelsea Fan by Association
NC Courage Fan by Choice
Secretary of the Denise O'Sullivan Fan Club
xGoal Theory Developer and Analyst: https://xgoaltheory.com/
NC Courage Fan by Choice
Secretary of the Denise O'Sullivan Fan Club
xGoal Theory Developer and Analyst: https://xgoaltheory.com/
Oh yeah, that is going to be an interesting development. Jordan has a high ceiling but is largely untested.
November 30, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Oh yeah, that is going to be an interesting development. Jordan has a high ceiling but is largely untested.
Fair. However, what I am seeing is that in spite of all of that, there is a core of players that has the potential to do more (and the numbers support it).
I believe the idea of fire selling pieces is a considerable risk that may pay off. But I am not convinced.
I believe the idea of fire selling pieces is a considerable risk that may pay off. But I am not convinced.
November 30, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Fair. However, what I am seeing is that in spite of all of that, there is a core of players that has the potential to do more (and the numbers support it).
I believe the idea of fire selling pieces is a considerable risk that may pay off. But I am not convinced.
I believe the idea of fire selling pieces is a considerable risk that may pay off. But I am not convinced.
KK's out, who is the other one?
November 30, 2025 at 3:03 PM
KK's out, who is the other one?
That's the big question mark for NC in 2026. Does the coach come in and try to patch the foundation set by Nahas? Or do they leverage the off season to build a system around something/someone else.
My hope: get Sanchez more involved or move her and look for someone who can compliment Manaka.
My hope: get Sanchez more involved or move her and look for someone who can compliment Manaka.
November 30, 2025 at 3:02 PM
That's the big question mark for NC in 2026. Does the coach come in and try to patch the foundation set by Nahas? Or do they leverage the off season to build a system around something/someone else.
My hope: get Sanchez more involved or move her and look for someone who can compliment Manaka.
My hope: get Sanchez more involved or move her and look for someone who can compliment Manaka.
I do not have insider knowledge of the coaching decisions for the Courage. But I will say that we need to give some grace to the interim coaching staff.
They did have a plan, right? There were elements of success in spite of what happened this season off the pitch.
PS: Ella Masar... PLEASE
They did have a plan, right? There were elements of success in spite of what happened this season off the pitch.
PS: Ella Masar... PLEASE
November 30, 2025 at 2:53 PM
I do not have insider knowledge of the coaching decisions for the Courage. But I will say that we need to give some grace to the interim coaching staff.
They did have a plan, right? There were elements of success in spite of what happened this season off the pitch.
PS: Ella Masar... PLEASE
They did have a plan, right? There were elements of success in spite of what happened this season off the pitch.
PS: Ella Masar... PLEASE
Neat! Looking at the api, you can map shots based on x/y locations. I might look into this.
November 30, 2025 at 5:36 AM
Neat! Looking at the api, you can map shots based on x/y locations. I might look into this.
Do you analyze shot position to figure out those numbers? That's a pretty neat rabbit hole to explore.
November 30, 2025 at 5:31 AM
Do you analyze shot position to figure out those numbers? That's a pretty neat rabbit hole to explore.
I appreciate you! Thanks for reaching out. I am always learning new stuff.
November 30, 2025 at 5:10 AM
I appreciate you! Thanks for reaching out. I am always learning new stuff.
Correct and it would be if I didn't invert the percentile. The reason I did that is because it makes calculating team strength easier if all percentiles are: higher = better, lower = worse.
I understand that this probably goes against statistics best practices and I should be more clear about that.
I understand that this probably goes against statistics best practices and I should be more clear about that.
November 30, 2025 at 5:03 AM
Correct and it would be if I didn't invert the percentile. The reason I did that is because it makes calculating team strength easier if all percentiles are: higher = better, lower = worse.
I understand that this probably goes against statistics best practices and I should be more clear about that.
I understand that this probably goes against statistics best practices and I should be more clear about that.
Added against or added for? I have interrupting goals added against calculated as an inverted metric, although that isn't clear from the posts.
November 30, 2025 at 4:53 AM
Added against or added for? I have interrupting goals added against calculated as an inverted metric, although that isn't clear from the posts.
The conclusion isn’t that the standings were “wrong,” but rather that the Courage profile as a team primed for positive regression in 2026. The fundamentals indicate a much stronger team than their placement suggested.
November 30, 2025 at 4:43 AM
The conclusion isn’t that the standings were “wrong,” but rather that the Courage profile as a team primed for positive regression in 2026. The fundamentals indicate a much stronger team than their placement suggested.
Put all these together, and the picture becomes consistent:
A team that controlled matches, created more than their opponents, limited chance quality reasonably well, and accumulated the statistical foundation of a top-tier side, even if the points never came.
A team that controlled matches, created more than their opponents, limited chance quality reasonably well, and accumulated the statistical foundation of a top-tier side, even if the points never came.
November 30, 2025 at 4:43 AM
Put all these together, and the picture becomes consistent:
A team that controlled matches, created more than their opponents, limited chance quality reasonably well, and accumulated the statistical foundation of a top-tier side, even if the points never came.
A team that controlled matches, created more than their opponents, limited chance quality reasonably well, and accumulated the statistical foundation of a top-tier side, even if the points never came.
Defensively, while goals against were high, their xGA percentile (72) and interrupting goals added (72) show they limited the quality of chances better than their raw GA number suggests. The defensive performance was stronger in process than in outcomes.
November 30, 2025 at 4:42 AM
Defensively, while goals against were high, their xGA percentile (72) and interrupting goals added (72) show they limited the quality of chances better than their raw GA number suggests. The defensive performance was stronger in process than in outcomes.
Their passes completed over expected (86th percentile) and elite possession-value metrics indicate a team consistently controlling matches, creating high-quality chances, and sustaining pressure in ways that correlate strongly with long-term success.
November 30, 2025 at 4:42 AM
Their passes completed over expected (86th percentile) and elite possession-value metrics indicate a team consistently controlling matches, creating high-quality chances, and sustaining pressure in ways that correlate strongly with long-term success.
Points aside, the underlying process data is even clearer. Their xPoints (40.5) suggest they played like a mid-to-upper playoff seed. Several teams above them in the table finished with lower or equivalent xP totals.
The gap between results and process for NC was one of the widest in the league.
The gap between results and process for NC was one of the widest in the league.
November 30, 2025 at 4:41 AM
Points aside, the underlying process data is even clearer. Their xPoints (40.5) suggest they played like a mid-to-upper playoff seed. Several teams above them in the table finished with lower or equivalent xP totals.
The gap between results and process for NC was one of the widest in the league.
The gap between results and process for NC was one of the widest in the league.
The model assigns the Courage a strength score of 73, which places them above several playoff teams and close to clubs widely regarded as top-tier.
Strength modeling combines goals, xG, possession value added, and defensive impact — and NC grades consistently well across each major input.
Strength modeling combines goals, xG, possession value added, and defensive impact — and NC grades consistently well across each major input.
November 30, 2025 at 4:41 AM
The model assigns the Courage a strength score of 73, which places them above several playoff teams and close to clubs widely regarded as top-tier.
Strength modeling combines goals, xG, possession value added, and defensive impact — and NC grades consistently well across each major input.
Strength modeling combines goals, xG, possession value added, and defensive impact — and NC grades consistently well across each major input.
Start with the percentile breakdown.
NC sits at:
86th percentile xG For
72nd percentile xG Against
93rd percentile Passing Goals Added For
93rd percentile Receiving Goals Added For
This is the statistical profile of a high-functioning, well-balanced attack with above-average defensive process.
NC sits at:
86th percentile xG For
72nd percentile xG Against
93rd percentile Passing Goals Added For
93rd percentile Receiving Goals Added For
This is the statistical profile of a high-functioning, well-balanced attack with above-average defensive process.
November 30, 2025 at 4:40 AM
Start with the percentile breakdown.
NC sits at:
86th percentile xG For
72nd percentile xG Against
93rd percentile Passing Goals Added For
93rd percentile Receiving Goals Added For
This is the statistical profile of a high-functioning, well-balanced attack with above-average defensive process.
NC sits at:
86th percentile xG For
72nd percentile xG Against
93rd percentile Passing Goals Added For
93rd percentile Receiving Goals Added For
This is the statistical profile of a high-functioning, well-balanced attack with above-average defensive process.
Not so loud! The ghost of Sean Nahas will hear you!
November 25, 2025 at 4:01 AM
Not so loud! The ghost of Sean Nahas will hear you!
Thanks for the work tonight, Jason!
November 23, 2025 at 5:37 AM
Thanks for the work tonight, Jason!
Unusual or not, teams couldn’t break down Gothams defense. You can’t have zero shots on target and expect to win a Championship game.
November 23, 2025 at 3:28 AM
Unusual or not, teams couldn’t break down Gothams defense. You can’t have zero shots on target and expect to win a Championship game.