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I cannot underscore how much this outcome sucks. Happy freaking new year. After a months-long wait, with very little in the way of actual rumors, it is perhaps no surprise that Japanese ace Tatsuya Imai is signing with a team no one expected: Star Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai and the Houston Astros are in agreement on a free agent contract, sources tell ESPN.— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) January 1, 2026 Tatsuya Imai's deal with Houston is for 3 years with opt outs every year, sources tell ESPN. When terms are announced, it'll be the largest AAV for a Japanese pitcher coming over outside of Yamamoto.— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) January 1, 2026 Sucks for lots of obvious reasons, but also because the Astros weren’t known to be for sure looking at the top-tier of starting pitchers. So now one of those pitchers goes off the board without taking the Mets, Phillies, etc. with him. We’ll see what the terms are when it all shakes loose, which will allow us to better project (retcon?) how badly we think the Cubs missed here. For all we know, he never had any interest in coming to Chicago anyway, even if the deal winds up looking like a good risk on paper. Either way, I’m still very disappointed that this is not happening for the Cubs, and I’m scrambling mentally to figure out where they go from here to add a front-three starting pitcher. UPDATE: The deal maxes out at $63 million, though the structure will still be important to see for a full evaluation: The Astros are in agreement with Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai on a three-year contract, source tells @TheAthletic. The deal maxes out at $63 million and contains opt outs after every season.— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) January 1, 2026 Obviously, even if the structure is extremely player-friendly (I presume it is), that total guarantee is drastically lower than folks had originally been expecting for Tatsuya Imai. Clearly the concerns about how he’ll translate to MLB were prevalent among all suitors. UPDATE 2: This deal is hard to go apples to apples with the original Shota Imanaga deal, but you could argue it’s actually even cheaper than what Imanaga got (and the AAV is now lower than what Imanaga is getting on the Qualifying Offer!): Imai's AAV starts at $18 million per season and can max out at $21 million per season based on innings pitched, source tells @TheAthletic— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) January 1, 2026 A mere $54 million guarantee if everything goes sideways. Yeesh. Teams did not believe Imai could be a front-two guys, clearly. But he’s betting on himself with the opt outs, so the flip side is he pretty clearly believes he can show it in 2026, then opt out and in long-term ahead of his age-29 season (no posting fee attached at that point, too, though he’d probably be attached to a QO). So far, what I’m seeing is a deal that the Cubs should’ve been happy to match or top if they believed in Imai at all. Maybe they don’t. Or maybe he hates Chicago. No idea. But I’m not thrilled at the moment, even as I now recognize the apparent belief that he’s much more mid-rotation than front-rotation. UPDATE 3: The incentives in that first year are pretty achievable, for what that’s worth: Imai Contract: $18M a year with $3M in PB at 80ip/90ip/100ip total $21M a year possible. $54M guarantee, $63M possible #astros— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 1, 2026 UPDATE 4: I wouldn’t be surprised if one of these teams was the Cubs, though I’d thought all along they would try to get a deal similar to the one the Astros just got: Imai had longer-term deals with lower AAVs on the table, per source, though he chose to go to Houston on the shorter-term, higher-AAV deal with opt outs.— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) January 1, 2026

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Mysteries and thrillers are enjoyable no matter the season, but there's something extra satisfying about curling up in the winter with a warm drink and an all-engrossing read. Here's what we suggest.

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