steve the skeptic
@policyskeptic.bsky.social
government policy, health policy, evidence, statistics and sometimes other topics
every time Trump talks about US inflation he claims that inflation under Biden was the worst ever seen. Here is the evidence:
Maybe he has a short memory.
Maybe he has a short memory.
November 17, 2025 at 11:02 AM
every time Trump talks about US inflation he claims that inflation under Biden was the worst ever seen. Here is the evidence:
Maybe he has a short memory.
Maybe he has a short memory.
We have had a good metric related to the extent of corridor waits for a long time (the number of 12hr waits). But NHSE resisted publishing the monthly numbers until 2023. Here is what they should have published back to 2010:
November 10, 2025 at 10:26 AM
We have had a good metric related to the extent of corridor waits for a long time (the number of 12hr waits). But NHSE resisted publishing the monthly numbers until 2023. Here is what they should have published back to 2010:
Stupidest headline of the weekend:
Wins on two separate counts:
1. Management cuts have not happened yet
2. While cutting NHSE might be justified, everywhere else in the NHS needs more managers not fewer...
Wins on two separate counts:
1. Management cuts have not happened yet
2. While cutting NHSE might be justified, everywhere else in the NHS needs more managers not fewer...
November 2, 2025 at 11:06 PM
Stupidest headline of the weekend:
Wins on two separate counts:
1. Management cuts have not happened yet
2. While cutting NHSE might be justified, everywhere else in the NHS needs more managers not fewer...
Wins on two separate counts:
1. Management cuts have not happened yet
2. While cutting NHSE might be justified, everywhere else in the NHS needs more managers not fewer...
Which of these maps describing UK election results works better?
Would representing vote share using circles be an improvement?
Would representing vote share using circles be an improvement?
October 10, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Which of these maps describing UK election results works better?
Would representing vote share using circles be an improvement?
Would representing vote share using circles be an improvement?
Many assume that A&E performance is a demand problem but performance has fallen in the units where demand is barely growing:
September 30, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Many assume that A&E performance is a demand problem but performance has fallen in the units where demand is barely growing:
Boy's names were once dominated by James, Robert, David and Michael. Most recently it's Liam.
June 17, 2025 at 8:26 PM
Boy's names were once dominated by James, Robert, David and Michael. Most recently it's Liam.
for much of the 1970's Jennifer was the top choice for girls names in every US state. Things have changed.
June 17, 2025 at 8:26 PM
for much of the 1970's Jennifer was the top choice for girls names in every US state. Things have changed.
I once posted this analysis of NHS hospital size:
May 28, 2025 at 9:01 AM
I once posted this analysis of NHS hospital size:
Doing the calculation this way is shown in this table:
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May 23, 2025 at 12:20 PM
Doing the calculation this way is shown in this table:
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And the ratio of discharged to admitted changes over time spent in A&E:
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May 23, 2025 at 12:20 PM
And the ratio of discharged to admitted changes over time spent in A&E:
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An alternative view of this factual data as a chart looks like this:
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May 23, 2025 at 12:20 PM
An alternative view of this factual data as a chart looks like this:
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The raw patient level data (not an estimate) looks like this:
(by admission status)...
(by admission status)...
May 23, 2025 at 12:20 PM
The raw patient level data (not an estimate) looks like this:
(by admission status)...
(by admission status)...
Has someone been studying how NHS management works?
Does this accurately describe some of the trends in the last decade?
Does this accurately describe some of the trends in the last decade?
April 2, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Has someone been studying how NHS management works?
Does this accurately describe some of the trends in the last decade?
Does this accurately describe some of the trends in the last decade?
You might need to triple the height of the axis:
March 7, 2025 at 6:02 PM
You might need to triple the height of the axis:
"The biggest problem in the NHS is budget cuts and the resulting shortages of staff".
Really?
Really?
March 5, 2025 at 1:32 PM
"The biggest problem in the NHS is budget cuts and the resulting shortages of staff".
Really?
Really?
US trade policy is mad as this FT article explains hilariously:
on.ft.com/411IShK
on.ft.com/411IShK
February 21, 2025 at 10:12 AM
US trade policy is mad as this FT article explains hilariously:
on.ft.com/411IShK
on.ft.com/411IShK
Again, no. A&E demand is up about 20-25% in the last 15 years. The number stuck in the A&E queue is up by factors of 3 to 6:
Demand is not the problem or the cause of this.
Demand is not the problem or the cause of this.
February 20, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Again, no. A&E demand is up about 20-25% in the last 15 years. The number stuck in the A&E queue is up by factors of 3 to 6:
Demand is not the problem or the cause of this.
Demand is not the problem or the cause of this.
This is redrawn from Darzi data to illustrate just how severe A&E crowding is:
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February 20, 2025 at 3:25 PM
This is redrawn from Darzi data to illustrate just how severe A&E crowding is:
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Found the source in the Darzi technical annex. This is a better version redrawn:
February 20, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Found the source in the Darzi technical annex. This is a better version redrawn:
The monthly data has only been published for two years (the underlying data goes back to 2008). But annual reports have yearly totals and this is derived from that:
February 14, 2025 at 2:25 PM
The monthly data has only been published for two years (the underlying data goes back to 2008). But annual reports have yearly totals and this is derived from that:
This is a better chart:
(12hr waits from admission is a more reliable metric and a more significant one for understanding mortality)
(12hr waits from admission is a more reliable metric and a more significant one for understanding mortality)
February 14, 2025 at 1:38 PM
This is a better chart:
(12hr waits from admission is a more reliable metric and a more significant one for understanding mortality)
(12hr waits from admission is a more reliable metric and a more significant one for understanding mortality)
This plot shows the variation is provider costs for each HRG used in major A&E departments along with a chart showing the national volume of each:
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February 13, 2025 at 3:05 PM
This plot shows the variation is provider costs for each HRG used in major A&E departments along with a chart showing the national volume of each:
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Now we have much more reliable and useful 12hr end to end waits why not use that?
This is what it looks like:
Worst ever: 173k total waits >12hr, nearly 13% of all major attendance. And this wile 4hr waits shoed a small improvement...
This is what it looks like:
Worst ever: 173k total waits >12hr, nearly 13% of all major attendance. And this wile 4hr waits shoed a small improvement...
February 13, 2025 at 2:05 PM
Now we have much more reliable and useful 12hr end to end waits why not use that?
This is what it looks like:
Worst ever: 173k total waits >12hr, nearly 13% of all major attendance. And this wile 4hr waits shoed a small improvement...
This is what it looks like:
Worst ever: 173k total waits >12hr, nearly 13% of all major attendance. And this wile 4hr waits shoed a small improvement...