Peter Tillmann
@peterhtillmann.bsky.social
Professor of Economics, Justus Liebig University (JLU) Giessen | monetary policy, macroeconomics, text-as-data applications
https://sites.google.com/view/peter-tillmann/
https://sites.google.com/view/peter-tillmann/
How do inflation expectations respond to a change in the preferences of the central bank? In a new paper, Moritz Grebe and I use a natural experiment: the surprise resignation of Jens Weidmann, the President of the Bundesbank, in 2021.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
October 15, 2025 at 4:07 AM
How do inflation expectations respond to a change in the preferences of the central bank? In a new paper, Moritz Grebe and I use a natural experiment: the surprise resignation of Jens Weidmann, the President of the Bundesbank, in 2021.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
A normal day in the Oval Office
(polymarket.com/event/will-t...)
(polymarket.com/event/will-t...)
July 16, 2025 at 5:50 PM
A normal day in the Oval Office
(polymarket.com/event/will-t...)
(polymarket.com/event/will-t...)
New paper: do members of the Bundestag change their fiscal stance after an ECB decisions? I use NLP tools in an event study: a tightening causes a less expansionary stance in the two weeks after the ECB decision. The effect disappears at the ZLB.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
June 1, 2025 at 4:17 PM
New paper: do members of the Bundestag change their fiscal stance after an ECB decisions? I use NLP tools in an event study: a tightening causes a less expansionary stance in the two weeks after the ECB decision. The effect disappears at the ZLB.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
June 1, 2025 at 7:02 AM
Genau. "Protection for Sale" reversed.
April 4, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Genau. "Protection for Sale" reversed.
March 25, 2025 at 9:40 AM
It is very rare to see dissent from a governor. This shows the number of dissenting presidents and governors on the FOMC since 2009. Data: www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-econo...
March 21, 2025 at 2:27 PM
It is very rare to see dissent from a governor. This shows the number of dissenting presidents and governors on the FOMC since 2009. Data: www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-econo...
Very beautiful graphics
March 21, 2025 at 9:28 AM
Very beautiful graphics
Thanks @t0nyyates.bsky.social for citing our paper on "The Emotions of Monetary Policy" in the Financial Times
March 14, 2025 at 9:05 AM
Thanks @t0nyyates.bsky.social for citing our paper on "The Emotions of Monetary Policy" in the Financial Times
March 13, 2025 at 6:38 PM
Die 10jährigen deutschen Zinsen haben heute um etwa 20bp auf die gestrigen News reagiert. Zum Vergleich hier die Reaktionen der 10y Zinsen auf die News an EZB-Sitzungstagen seit 1999 (Daten von Altavilla et al, 2019), ebenfalls in bp
March 5, 2025 at 12:02 PM
Die 10jährigen deutschen Zinsen haben heute um etwa 20bp auf die gestrigen News reagiert. Zum Vergleich hier die Reaktionen der 10y Zinsen auf die News an EZB-Sitzungstagen seit 1999 (Daten von Altavilla et al, 2019), ebenfalls in bp
What is the economic effect of spending on the Bundeswehr? In a new note, we analyze the debates in the Bundestag since 1970. An increase in Bundeswehr-related fiscal sentiment causes an expansion of real economic activity.
drive.google.com/file/d/1H83v...
drive.google.com/file/d/1H83v...
February 27, 2025 at 3:18 PM
What is the economic effect of spending on the Bundeswehr? In a new note, we analyze the debates in the Bundestag since 1970. An increase in Bundeswehr-related fiscal sentiment causes an expansion of real economic activity.
drive.google.com/file/d/1H83v...
drive.google.com/file/d/1H83v...
Ciao BSW: 4,972%. Danke Mannheim, Flensburg, Viersen, ...
February 24, 2025 at 12:48 AM
Ciao BSW: 4,972%. Danke Mannheim, Flensburg, Viersen, ...
Also the figures provided by @joelsuss.ft.com for other countries:
February 23, 2025 at 2:09 PM
Also the figures provided by @joelsuss.ft.com for other countries:
Read this fascinating paper: dark shipping not just matters for geopolitics, but also for the macroeconomy. What a great machine learning project.
February 20, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Read this fascinating paper: dark shipping not just matters for geopolitics, but also for the macroeconomy. What a great machine learning project.
Das verheißt nichts Gutes.
February 19, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Das verheißt nichts Gutes.
Die Freunde der AfD: Putin, Trump, Vance, Orban, Musk und die Chinesen:
February 15, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Die Freunde der AfD: Putin, Trump, Vance, Orban, Musk und die Chinesen:
Manche Startup-Funktionäre glänzen wirklich durch politisches Urteilsvermögen
February 6, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Manche Startup-Funktionäre glänzen wirklich durch politisches Urteilsvermögen
This is not my account:
January 22, 2025 at 7:50 PM
This is not my account:
January 21, 2025 at 2:38 PM
New paper: "𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝗺𝗼𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆". We measure the facial and vocal expressions of the ECB presidents at a high frequency.
With @jens-klose.bsky.social, @sinemkandemir.bsky.social, Mamadou-Lamine Barry, Brenton J. Bruns and Victor Smirnov.
The paper: lnkd.in/eR4AXeiz
With @jens-klose.bsky.social, @sinemkandemir.bsky.social, Mamadou-Lamine Barry, Brenton J. Bruns and Victor Smirnov.
The paper: lnkd.in/eR4AXeiz
January 14, 2025 at 9:37 AM
New paper: "𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝗺𝗼𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆". We measure the facial and vocal expressions of the ECB presidents at a high frequency.
With @jens-klose.bsky.social, @sinemkandemir.bsky.social, Mamadou-Lamine Barry, Brenton J. Bruns and Victor Smirnov.
The paper: lnkd.in/eR4AXeiz
With @jens-klose.bsky.social, @sinemkandemir.bsky.social, Mamadou-Lamine Barry, Brenton J. Bruns and Victor Smirnov.
The paper: lnkd.in/eR4AXeiz