Peter Tillmann
@peterhtillmann.bsky.social
Professor of Economics, Justus Liebig University (JLU) Giessen | monetary policy, macroeconomics, text-as-data applications
https://sites.google.com/view/peter-tillmann/
https://sites.google.com/view/peter-tillmann/
How do inflation expectations respond to a change in the preferences of the central bank? In a new paper, Moritz Grebe and I use a natural experiment: the surprise resignation of Jens Weidmann, the President of the Bundesbank, in 2021.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
October 15, 2025 at 4:07 AM
How do inflation expectations respond to a change in the preferences of the central bank? In a new paper, Moritz Grebe and I use a natural experiment: the surprise resignation of Jens Weidmann, the President of the Bundesbank, in 2021.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Great to see our short note in print
September 4, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Great to see our short note in print
Wow: "an unprecedented second vote by the Monetary Policy Committee after it initially failed to reach a majority verdict" #BankofEngland
www.ft.com/content/236c...
www.ft.com/content/236c...
UK interest rates: Bank of England cuts rates to 4% in tight vote
Monetary Policy Committee forced into unprecedented second vote after initially failing to reach majority
www.ft.com
August 7, 2025 at 11:29 AM
Wow: "an unprecedented second vote by the Monetary Policy Committee after it initially failed to reach a majority verdict" #BankofEngland
www.ft.com/content/236c...
www.ft.com/content/236c...
Sometime I envy the natural scientists. No economist needed for a research cruise to the arctic.
#CallforProposals The DFG Infrastructure Priority Programme "Research Vessels" opens its 2nd call: Proposals can be submitted for an individual funding period of up to 3 years starting in January 2027 or later. More background information, formal requirements and process:
www.dfg.de/de/aktuelles...
www.dfg.de/de/aktuelles...
July 29, 2025 at 10:55 AM
Sometime I envy the natural scientists. No economist needed for a research cruise to the arctic.
Faszinierend: Daten von 630000 Gemälden seit 1400. Mehr dazu in NBER WP 33976.
Wie war die Stimmung während der ersten Globalisierung, nach der Erfindung des Radios oder während Europas letztem großen Klimawandel? Ökonomen (u.a. @heblich.bsky.social) haben sich dafür etwas Cleveres einfallen lassen: Emotionen in >600.000 Gemälden, ausgewertet mit KI.
Wirtschaftsgeschichte: Was die Kunst über Krisen verrät
Je schlechter die Wirtschaft, desto mehr Angst und Trauer sind auf Gemälden zu sehen. Wer genau hinschaut kann den Bildern noch mehr Geschichten entlocken.
www.faz.net
July 27, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Faszinierend: Daten von 630000 Gemälden seit 1400. Mehr dazu in NBER WP 33976.
A normal day in the Oval Office
(polymarket.com/event/will-t...)
(polymarket.com/event/will-t...)
July 16, 2025 at 5:50 PM
A normal day in the Oval Office
(polymarket.com/event/will-t...)
(polymarket.com/event/will-t...)
Reposted by Peter Tillmann
Literally the Russian flag in the post. Two of them
June 14, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Literally the Russian flag in the post. Two of them
New paper: do members of the Bundestag change their fiscal stance after an ECB decisions? I use NLP tools in an event study: a tightening causes a less expansionary stance in the two weeks after the ECB decision. The effect disappears at the ZLB.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
June 1, 2025 at 4:17 PM
New paper: do members of the Bundestag change their fiscal stance after an ECB decisions? I use NLP tools in an event study: a tightening causes a less expansionary stance in the two weeks after the ECB decision. The effect disappears at the ZLB.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
June 1, 2025 at 7:02 AM
This is how you destroy a safe haven: "Section 899 of the bill ... would allow the US to impose additional taxes on companies and investors from countries that it deems to have punitive tax policies."
www.ft.com/content/b400...
www.ft.com/content/b400...
Foreign tax provision in Trump budget bill spooks Wall Street
Legislation would erode the appeal of US financial assets, warn banks and investors
www.ft.com
May 30, 2025 at 12:51 PM
This is how you destroy a safe haven: "Section 899 of the bill ... would allow the US to impose additional taxes on companies and investors from countries that it deems to have punitive tax policies."
www.ft.com/content/b400...
www.ft.com/content/b400...
Reposted by Peter Tillmann
Absolutely ridiculous and irresponsible from El Erian.
If you want to protect the integrity and independence of the Fed, you do not create gratuitous paths to power grabs that directly undermine independence
If you want to protect the integrity and independence of the Fed, you do not create gratuitous paths to power grabs that directly undermine independence
“The easiest thing is for Powell to resign. If you really want to protect the integrity of the Fed and its independence, chair Powell would resign” - el-erian
🥴
www.foxbusiness.com/video/637161...
🥴
www.foxbusiness.com/video/637161...
El-Erian: Kevin Warsh would be a great Fed chair | Fox Business Video
Allianz chief economic advisor Mohamed El-Erian unpacks the stock market's response to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on 'The Claman Countdown.'
www.foxbusiness.com
April 18, 2025 at 7:58 AM
Absolutely ridiculous and irresponsible from El Erian.
If you want to protect the integrity and independence of the Fed, you do not create gratuitous paths to power grabs that directly undermine independence
If you want to protect the integrity and independence of the Fed, you do not create gratuitous paths to power grabs that directly undermine independence
Sentiment falling off a cliff:
Lots of striking 'falling off a cliff' figures out of the US these days. Here's another -- corporate sentiment around trade has plummeted, making Trump's first trade war negligible by comparison on.ft.com/3Y0SdpH
April 16, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Sentiment falling off a cliff:
Reposted by Peter Tillmann
🦑💫This NASA/ESA Hubble image features the spiral galaxy Messier 77, also known as the Squid Galaxy.
It would take more than a century between the discovery of the galaxy and the realisation that the ‘spiral nebulae’ scattered across the sky were not part of our own galaxy!
#HubbleSpaceTelescope 🔭
It would take more than a century between the discovery of the galaxy and the realisation that the ‘spiral nebulae’ scattered across the sky were not part of our own galaxy!
#HubbleSpaceTelescope 🔭
April 14, 2025 at 8:09 AM
🦑💫This NASA/ESA Hubble image features the spiral galaxy Messier 77, also known as the Squid Galaxy.
It would take more than a century between the discovery of the galaxy and the realisation that the ‘spiral nebulae’ scattered across the sky were not part of our own galaxy!
#HubbleSpaceTelescope 🔭
It would take more than a century between the discovery of the galaxy and the realisation that the ‘spiral nebulae’ scattered across the sky were not part of our own galaxy!
#HubbleSpaceTelescope 🔭
Reposted by Peter Tillmann
Here's how that compares to this point in Biden's term and Trump's first term:
April 9, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Here's how that compares to this point in Biden's term and Trump's first term:
Reposted by Peter Tillmann
Reposted by Peter Tillmann
All major currencies appreciating against USD today 1.5-2.5%
April 3, 2025 at 1:20 PM
All major currencies appreciating against USD today 1.5-2.5%
Reposted by Peter Tillmann
Our cover this week.
April 3, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Our cover this week.
Reposted by Peter Tillmann
This is what Trump's "economists" say about how they calculated the "reciprocal" tariffs. Don[t be fooled by the equation. They commit countless crimes against economics. ustr.gov/issue-areas/... +
Reciprocal Tariff Calculations
Executive Summary Reciprocal tariffs are calculated as the tariff rate necessary to balance bilateral trade deficits between the U.S. and each of our trading partners. This calculation assumes that pe...
ustr.gov
April 3, 2025 at 6:44 AM
This is what Trump's "economists" say about how they calculated the "reciprocal" tariffs. Don[t be fooled by the equation. They commit countless crimes against economics. ustr.gov/issue-areas/... +
Reposted by Peter Tillmann
The US announces big tariffs and the Dollar falls on the day. That could mean: (i) markets don't believe any of this after all the back and forth on tariffs; (ii) markets think this hurts the US more than the rest of the world. I think it's (i), which means USD rises a lot if these tariffs stick.
April 2, 2025 at 9:24 PM
The US announces big tariffs and the Dollar falls on the day. That could mean: (i) markets don't believe any of this after all the back and forth on tariffs; (ii) markets think this hurts the US more than the rest of the world. I think it's (i), which means USD rises a lot if these tariffs stick.
Reposted by Peter Tillmann
Gebt 🇺🇸 Spitzenforschern eine neue Heimat!
Ein Gastbeitrag im SPIEGEL, von Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, Ulrike Malmendier, Moritz Schularick, Achim Truger, Georg Weizsäcker, Martin Werding, Cornelia Woll und mir.
www.spiegel.de/ausland/usa-...
Ein Gastbeitrag im SPIEGEL, von Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, Ulrike Malmendier, Moritz Schularick, Achim Truger, Georg Weizsäcker, Martin Werding, Cornelia Woll und mir.
www.spiegel.de/ausland/usa-...
(S+) Meinung: Gebt Amerikas Spitzenforschern eine neue Heimat in Deutschland!
US-Spitzenforscher leiden zunehmend unter den Einschnitten der Trump-Regierung. Deutschland sollte sie mit einem ambitionierten »Meitner-Einstein-Programm« ins Land locken, fordert jetzt eine Gruppe n...
www.spiegel.de
April 1, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Gebt 🇺🇸 Spitzenforschern eine neue Heimat!
Ein Gastbeitrag im SPIEGEL, von Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, Ulrike Malmendier, Moritz Schularick, Achim Truger, Georg Weizsäcker, Martin Werding, Cornelia Woll und mir.
www.spiegel.de/ausland/usa-...
Ein Gastbeitrag im SPIEGEL, von Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, Ulrike Malmendier, Moritz Schularick, Achim Truger, Georg Weizsäcker, Martin Werding, Cornelia Woll und mir.
www.spiegel.de/ausland/usa-...