Pawel Brodzinski
@pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social
Leader of an org where anyone can make any decision (Lunar Logic).
Doing anything that no one else wants to do.
A mouthful on product development, org design, lean/agile, IT in general.
Doing anything that no one else wants to do.
A mouthful on product development, org design, lean/agile, IT in general.
Took a look at startup funding data. Since 2021, the heyday number of deals has declined (duh!)
What's interesting:
- for purely male-led teams, it's down by 18%
- for teams with a female in leadership, it's down by 32%
And 2025 will be even worse.
What's interesting:
- for purely male-led teams, it's down by 18%
- for teams with a female in leadership, it's down by 32%
And 2025 will be even worse.
December 9, 2025 at 9:40 PM
Took a look at startup funding data. Since 2021, the heyday number of deals has declined (duh!)
What's interesting:
- for purely male-led teams, it's down by 18%
- for teams with a female in leadership, it's down by 32%
And 2025 will be even worse.
What's interesting:
- for purely male-led teams, it's down by 18%
- for teams with a female in leadership, it's down by 32%
And 2025 will be even worse.
Shopify famously went all-in with AI. Results?
Revenues up. Margins up. Headcount down.
Except it's all bullshit.
Layoffs happened in 2022-23 and were a consequence of the COVID years' wild overhiring.
AI all-in was announced in 2025.
Connect the dots yourself before signing up for official spin.
Revenues up. Margins up. Headcount down.
Except it's all bullshit.
Layoffs happened in 2022-23 and were a consequence of the COVID years' wild overhiring.
AI all-in was announced in 2025.
Connect the dots yourself before signing up for official spin.
December 8, 2025 at 5:32 PM
Shopify famously went all-in with AI. Results?
Revenues up. Margins up. Headcount down.
Except it's all bullshit.
Layoffs happened in 2022-23 and were a consequence of the COVID years' wild overhiring.
AI all-in was announced in 2025.
Connect the dots yourself before signing up for official spin.
Revenues up. Margins up. Headcount down.
Except it's all bullshit.
Layoffs happened in 2022-23 and were a consequence of the COVID years' wild overhiring.
AI all-in was announced in 2025.
Connect the dots yourself before signing up for official spin.
AI Age: The Age of Dimishing Trust
It might be the single most consequential societal change brought to us by LLMs. We stop trusting things altogether.
It might be the single most consequential societal change brought to us by LLMs. We stop trusting things altogether.
December 4, 2025 at 11:34 AM
AI Age: The Age of Dimishing Trust
It might be the single most consequential societal change brought to us by LLMs. We stop trusting things altogether.
It might be the single most consequential societal change brought to us by LLMs. We stop trusting things altogether.
Every expert beginner ever.
December 1, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Every expert beginner ever.
When people start ideating, they may have a humble opinion about what they know or understand.
But then, knee-deep in exploration, toe-deep in development, they already believe they know oh so much.
Except, at the peak of the "how much I think I know" curve, we make the worst decisions.
But then, knee-deep in exploration, toe-deep in development, they already believe they know oh so much.
Except, at the peak of the "how much I think I know" curve, we make the worst decisions.
November 29, 2025 at 10:16 AM
When people start ideating, they may have a humble opinion about what they know or understand.
But then, knee-deep in exploration, toe-deep in development, they already believe they know oh so much.
Except, at the peak of the "how much I think I know" curve, we make the worst decisions.
But then, knee-deep in exploration, toe-deep in development, they already believe they know oh so much.
Except, at the peak of the "how much I think I know" curve, we make the worst decisions.
It would have been hilarious if it wasn't sad.
We have broken education. Irrevocably, I'm afraid.
archive.ph/e5BSM
We have broken education. Irrevocably, I'm afraid.
archive.ph/e5BSM
November 28, 2025 at 9:18 AM
It would have been hilarious if it wasn't sad.
We have broken education. Irrevocably, I'm afraid.
archive.ph/e5BSM
We have broken education. Irrevocably, I'm afraid.
archive.ph/e5BSM
Never thought about it this way. If there is a bubble and it bursts VCs still win.
Actually, the bigger the hype, the more money VCs move, and the bigger their cut.
VCs are incentivized to pump the bubble.
Actually, the bigger the hype, the more money VCs move, and the bigger their cut.
VCs are incentivized to pump the bubble.
November 28, 2025 at 8:42 AM
Never thought about it this way. If there is a bubble and it bursts VCs still win.
Actually, the bigger the hype, the more money VCs move, and the bigger their cut.
VCs are incentivized to pump the bubble.
Actually, the bigger the hype, the more money VCs move, and the bigger their cut.
VCs are incentivized to pump the bubble.
Mailchimp story:
- started in 2001 (worst possible moment)
- side hustle for founders for 6 years
- paid from day 1
- company growth only as fast as revenues allowed
- never took an investment
They did *everything* differently from common "playbooks"
- founders still sold for $12B after 20 years
- started in 2001 (worst possible moment)
- side hustle for founders for 6 years
- paid from day 1
- company growth only as fast as revenues allowed
- never took an investment
They did *everything* differently from common "playbooks"
- founders still sold for $12B after 20 years
November 26, 2025 at 2:55 PM
Mailchimp story:
- started in 2001 (worst possible moment)
- side hustle for founders for 6 years
- paid from day 1
- company growth only as fast as revenues allowed
- never took an investment
They did *everything* differently from common "playbooks"
- founders still sold for $12B after 20 years
- started in 2001 (worst possible moment)
- side hustle for founders for 6 years
- paid from day 1
- company growth only as fast as revenues allowed
- never took an investment
They did *everything* differently from common "playbooks"
- founders still sold for $12B after 20 years
If we think that waiting 10-15 years for a startup to show profitability is how "things have always been," well, let's think again.
The norm has evolved and not in a healthy direction.
pawelbrodzinski.substack.com/p/time-to-pr...
The norm has evolved and not in a healthy direction.
pawelbrodzinski.substack.com/p/time-to-pr...
November 26, 2025 at 2:01 PM
If we think that waiting 10-15 years for a startup to show profitability is how "things have always been," well, let's think again.
The norm has evolved and not in a healthy direction.
pawelbrodzinski.substack.com/p/time-to-pr...
The norm has evolved and not in a healthy direction.
pawelbrodzinski.substack.com/p/time-to-pr...
One has to love Hacker News.
"I haven't read this article but it's low quality and full of errors."
I think this comment might have a basic error in it, perhaps.
"I haven't read this article but it's low quality and full of errors."
I think this comment might have a basic error in it, perhaps.
November 24, 2025 at 5:55 PM
One has to love Hacker News.
"I haven't read this article but it's low quality and full of errors."
I think this comment might have a basic error in it, perhaps.
"I haven't read this article but it's low quality and full of errors."
I think this comment might have a basic error in it, perhaps.
As long as we rely on LLMs it's bound to be so.
My exchange with Sptofiy (summarized, aligned with your experience) is a classic example of how customer support will necessarily deal with an increasing number of pissed off customers.
But short term, it's cheaper in someone's spreadsheet.
My exchange with Sptofiy (summarized, aligned with your experience) is a classic example of how customer support will necessarily deal with an increasing number of pissed off customers.
But short term, it's cheaper in someone's spreadsheet.
November 21, 2025 at 6:46 PM
As long as we rely on LLMs it's bound to be so.
My exchange with Sptofiy (summarized, aligned with your experience) is a classic example of how customer support will necessarily deal with an increasing number of pissed off customers.
But short term, it's cheaper in someone's spreadsheet.
My exchange with Sptofiy (summarized, aligned with your experience) is a classic example of how customer support will necessarily deal with an increasing number of pissed off customers.
But short term, it's cheaper in someone's spreadsheet.
"AI art is an interesting technology because despite its growing popularity, nobody seems to want it.
Artists hate using it. Consumers hate consuming it. And yet it thrives."
theoatmeal.com/comics/ai_art
by @theoatmeal.bsky.social
Artists hate using it. Consumers hate consuming it. And yet it thrives."
theoatmeal.com/comics/ai_art
by @theoatmeal.bsky.social
November 13, 2025 at 11:25 AM
"AI art is an interesting technology because despite its growing popularity, nobody seems to want it.
Artists hate using it. Consumers hate consuming it. And yet it thrives."
theoatmeal.com/comics/ai_art
by @theoatmeal.bsky.social
Artists hate using it. Consumers hate consuming it. And yet it thrives."
theoatmeal.com/comics/ai_art
by @theoatmeal.bsky.social
Few things speak "we don't even read these comments" as loud as leaving an open question in the feedback form and limiting it to like 200 characters.
Good job, Spotify!
Fortunately, I got some nice tunes as thanks... xD
Good job, Spotify!
Fortunately, I got some nice tunes as thanks... xD
November 12, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Few things speak "we don't even read these comments" as loud as leaving an open question in the feedback form and limiting it to like 200 characters.
Good job, Spotify!
Fortunately, I got some nice tunes as thanks... xD
Good job, Spotify!
Fortunately, I got some nice tunes as thanks... xD
Vibe-coded app. Authorization.
"Add localhost:3000/auth/linkedi... to authorized redirect URLs"
It is "works well on my machine" of the AI era :D
"Add localhost:3000/auth/linkedi... to authorized redirect URLs"
It is "works well on my machine" of the AI era :D
November 5, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Vibe-coded app. Authorization.
"Add localhost:3000/auth/linkedi... to authorized redirect URLs"
It is "works well on my machine" of the AI era :D
"Add localhost:3000/auth/linkedi... to authorized redirect URLs"
It is "works well on my machine" of the AI era :D
"Unlike 1999, tech’s profits justify the premium."
Are these profits coming from AI? Save for hardware vendors, which AI wave made fly, what profits are we talking about?
And what happens to Nvidia when it's suddenly clear that OpenAI isn't on a path to profitability?
substack.com/inbox/post/1...
Are these profits coming from AI? Save for hardware vendors, which AI wave made fly, what profits are we talking about?
And what happens to Nvidia when it's suddenly clear that OpenAI isn't on a path to profitability?
substack.com/inbox/post/1...
November 3, 2025 at 8:01 PM
"Unlike 1999, tech’s profits justify the premium."
Are these profits coming from AI? Save for hardware vendors, which AI wave made fly, what profits are we talking about?
And what happens to Nvidia when it's suddenly clear that OpenAI isn't on a path to profitability?
substack.com/inbox/post/1...
Are these profits coming from AI? Save for hardware vendors, which AI wave made fly, what profits are we talking about?
And what happens to Nvidia when it's suddenly clear that OpenAI isn't on a path to profitability?
substack.com/inbox/post/1...
Hype wave versus reality.
Upon seeing the chart, I was like:
* Your ARR is not annual (can't be yet)
* Nor is it recurring (can't know yet)
After 10s research (literally clicking the links):
* It's also fake
* And scam
Check your sources, people!
Upon seeing the chart, I was like:
* Your ARR is not annual (can't be yet)
* Nor is it recurring (can't know yet)
After 10s research (literally clicking the links):
* It's also fake
* And scam
Check your sources, people!
November 3, 2025 at 10:32 AM
Hype wave versus reality.
Upon seeing the chart, I was like:
* Your ARR is not annual (can't be yet)
* Nor is it recurring (can't know yet)
After 10s research (literally clicking the links):
* It's also fake
* And scam
Check your sources, people!
Upon seeing the chart, I was like:
* Your ARR is not annual (can't be yet)
* Nor is it recurring (can't know yet)
After 10s research (literally clicking the links):
* It's also fake
* And scam
Check your sources, people!
"We haven't yet shown a single dollar of profit, but we're already too big to fail."
Welcome to 2025.
What do you not understand?
Welcome to 2025.
What do you not understand?
November 3, 2025 at 8:37 AM
"We haven't yet shown a single dollar of profit, but we're already too big to fail."
Welcome to 2025.
What do you not understand?
Welcome to 2025.
What do you not understand?
@kentbeck.com's post (substack.com/inbox/post/1...) reminded me about my own "disastrous failure" story.
In the end, our clients just ended up with a bit of extra work. Nothing too serious.
In the end, our clients just ended up with a bit of extra work. Nothing too serious.
October 30, 2025 at 5:15 PM
@kentbeck.com's post (substack.com/inbox/post/1...) reminded me about my own "disastrous failure" story.
In the end, our clients just ended up with a bit of extra work. Nothing too serious.
In the end, our clients just ended up with a bit of extra work. Nothing too serious.
That didn't age overly well.
It still somehow escapes me how these English developers build successful products.
It still somehow escapes me how these English developers build successful products.
October 30, 2025 at 4:11 PM
That didn't age overly well.
It still somehow escapes me how these English developers build successful products.
It still somehow escapes me how these English developers build successful products.
For years, statistical forecasting was the way to go for me when someone asked for an estimate.
Then I got back to simple linear approximation.
TL;DR: It's much quicker. And good enough.
www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
Then I got back to simple linear approximation.
TL;DR: It's much quicker. And good enough.
www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
October 30, 2025 at 3:30 PM
For years, statistical forecasting was the way to go for me when someone asked for an estimate.
Then I got back to simple linear approximation.
TL;DR: It's much quicker. And good enough.
www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
Then I got back to simple linear approximation.
TL;DR: It's much quicker. And good enough.
www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
Code review karma: the better code reviews you give, the better ones you receive.
That and more stats behind code reviews): substack.com/inbox/post/1...
That and more stats behind code reviews): substack.com/inbox/post/1...
October 22, 2025 at 9:26 AM
Code review karma: the better code reviews you give, the better ones you receive.
That and more stats behind code reviews): substack.com/inbox/post/1...
That and more stats behind code reviews): substack.com/inbox/post/1...
Find 5 differences.
The top picture is from Musk's tweet mocking the AWS outage.
The bottom is from the original CNBC article.
(And it's not to defend AWS or anything.)
The top picture is from Musk's tweet mocking the AWS outage.
The bottom is from the original CNBC article.
(And it's not to defend AWS or anything.)
October 21, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Find 5 differences.
The top picture is from Musk's tweet mocking the AWS outage.
The bottom is from the original CNBC article.
(And it's not to defend AWS or anything.)
The top picture is from Musk's tweet mocking the AWS outage.
The bottom is from the original CNBC article.
(And it's not to defend AWS or anything.)
Candidates mass applying with AI.
Companies mass rejecting with AI.
(Not so new) hacks to trick the AI tools emerge.
Both hiring and looking for a job is sure fun these days.
Is it only me, or is it not sustainable?
Source: substack.com/inbox/post/1...
Companies mass rejecting with AI.
(Not so new) hacks to trick the AI tools emerge.
Both hiring and looking for a job is sure fun these days.
Is it only me, or is it not sustainable?
Source: substack.com/inbox/post/1...
October 20, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Candidates mass applying with AI.
Companies mass rejecting with AI.
(Not so new) hacks to trick the AI tools emerge.
Both hiring and looking for a job is sure fun these days.
Is it only me, or is it not sustainable?
Source: substack.com/inbox/post/1...
Companies mass rejecting with AI.
(Not so new) hacks to trick the AI tools emerge.
Both hiring and looking for a job is sure fun these days.
Is it only me, or is it not sustainable?
Source: substack.com/inbox/post/1...
Recruitment in 2025.
AI has helped everyone so much! High fives, everyone!
AI has helped everyone so much! High fives, everyone!
October 17, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Recruitment in 2025.
AI has helped everyone so much! High fives, everyone!
AI has helped everyone so much! High fives, everyone!