Paul Mainwood
@paulmainwood.bsky.social
Flu coming back for another heave at it. Double-peaked and low (see 2023-4) is still good in terms of NHS pressure.
www.gov.uk/government/s...
www.gov.uk/government/s...
November 27, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Flu coming back for another heave at it. Double-peaked and low (see 2023-4) is still good in terms of NHS pressure.
www.gov.uk/government/s...
www.gov.uk/government/s...
Even obvious on the linear plots now.
November 13, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Even obvious on the linear plots now.
Going to say it again (and in advance of the flu report later today, so there's potential to be proved wrong almost immediately).
But I don't think flu is rocketing in the UK at all. It's early, sure, but already levelling off, at least for a while.
But I don't think flu is rocketing in the UK at all. It's early, sure, but already levelling off, at least for a while.
November 13, 2025 at 11:24 AM
Going to say it again (and in advance of the flu report later today, so there's potential to be proved wrong almost immediately).
But I don't think flu is rocketing in the UK at all. It's early, sure, but already levelling off, at least for a while.
But I don't think flu is rocketing in the UK at all. It's early, sure, but already levelling off, at least for a while.
In the UK, we're having an early flu season. A (linear) chart of positivity from the weekly flu and respiratory surveillance report. www.gov.uk/government/s...
A quick logit plot (right hand chart) suggest a hint of early levelling off, though past years (e.g., 2023/4) warn there can be multi-peaks.
A quick logit plot (right hand chart) suggest a hint of early levelling off, though past years (e.g., 2023/4) warn there can be multi-peaks.
November 7, 2025 at 9:25 AM
In the UK, we're having an early flu season. A (linear) chart of positivity from the weekly flu and respiratory surveillance report. www.gov.uk/government/s...
A quick logit plot (right hand chart) suggest a hint of early levelling off, though past years (e.g., 2023/4) warn there can be multi-peaks.
A quick logit plot (right hand chart) suggest a hint of early levelling off, though past years (e.g., 2023/4) warn there can be multi-peaks.
Despite all the rhetoric, the US Government is still spending massively more than they did last year. It's +6.9% to this point - well above any inflationary increase.
October 23, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Despite all the rhetoric, the US Government is still spending massively more than they did last year. It's +6.9% to this point - well above any inflationary increase.
October 23, 2025 at 10:39 AM
No argument there's a bubble but I wouldn't be hanging much on an article that comes out with claims like this:
October 11, 2025 at 12:39 PM
No argument there's a bubble but I wouldn't be hanging much on an article that comes out with claims like this:
October 4, 2025 at 10:27 AM
This chart (from the Guardian) seems somewhat misleading.
There are around 13x more Muslims than Jews in England and Wales.
So these numbers represent a >10x higher rate of offences against Jews; an astonishing >1 in 100 having suffered a religiously motivated hate crime last year.
There are around 13x more Muslims than Jews in England and Wales.
So these numbers represent a >10x higher rate of offences against Jews; an astonishing >1 in 100 having suffered a religiously motivated hate crime last year.
October 2, 2025 at 8:21 PM
This chart (from the Guardian) seems somewhat misleading.
There are around 13x more Muslims than Jews in England and Wales.
So these numbers represent a >10x higher rate of offences against Jews; an astonishing >1 in 100 having suffered a religiously motivated hate crime last year.
There are around 13x more Muslims than Jews in England and Wales.
So these numbers represent a >10x higher rate of offences against Jews; an astonishing >1 in 100 having suffered a religiously motivated hate crime last year.
Discuss (25 marks).
September 28, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Discuss (25 marks).
Again, the BBC's presentation under-emphasises the astonishing effectiveness of vaccines.
This chart, plus the statistic in the article that 90.3% of children are vaccinated & some assumptions, gives a ~99% estimate for MMR vaccine effectiveness against measles cases.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c0...
This chart, plus the statistic in the article that 90.3% of children are vaccinated & some assumptions, gives a ~99% estimate for MMR vaccine effectiveness against measles cases.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c0...
September 23, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Again, the BBC's presentation under-emphasises the astonishing effectiveness of vaccines.
This chart, plus the statistic in the article that 90.3% of children are vaccinated & some assumptions, gives a ~99% estimate for MMR vaccine effectiveness against measles cases.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c0...
This chart, plus the statistic in the article that 90.3% of children are vaccinated & some assumptions, gives a ~99% estimate for MMR vaccine effectiveness against measles cases.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c0...
A time series for London, but a similar pattern everywhere.
Measles vaccine in UK: 1968.
MMR in UK: 1988.
You can see the impact of each, because MMR boosts uptake enormously. Most of the lives saved by MMR are from measles.
Reversing this will - predictably - kill a large number of children.
Measles vaccine in UK: 1968.
MMR in UK: 1988.
You can see the impact of each, because MMR boosts uptake enormously. Most of the lives saved by MMR are from measles.
Reversing this will - predictably - kill a large number of children.
September 19, 2025 at 5:10 PM
A time series for London, but a similar pattern everywhere.
Measles vaccine in UK: 1968.
MMR in UK: 1988.
You can see the impact of each, because MMR boosts uptake enormously. Most of the lives saved by MMR are from measles.
Reversing this will - predictably - kill a large number of children.
Measles vaccine in UK: 1968.
MMR in UK: 1988.
You can see the impact of each, because MMR boosts uptake enormously. Most of the lives saved by MMR are from measles.
Reversing this will - predictably - kill a large number of children.
It's the Laaaaaand of the freeeeeeee. [dramatic pause]
And the hoooooomee [little wobble of emotion] of the braaaaaaaaaaaave.
And the hoooooomee [little wobble of emotion] of the braaaaaaaaaaaave.
September 18, 2025 at 5:20 AM
It's the Laaaaaand of the freeeeeeee. [dramatic pause]
And the hoooooomee [little wobble of emotion] of the braaaaaaaaaaaave.
And the hoooooomee [little wobble of emotion] of the braaaaaaaaaaaave.
The @nytimes.com once again ladies and gentlemen.
September 12, 2025 at 3:46 PM
The @nytimes.com once again ladies and gentlemen.
I see that the BBC's Chris Mason has discovered that when N=2, he can draw a straight line that fits the data perfectly.
September 12, 2025 at 5:34 AM
I see that the BBC's Chris Mason has discovered that when N=2, he can draw a straight line that fits the data perfectly.
Yes Nigel. And we have a name for people who find themselves doing this a lot. Starts with “L”. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
September 7, 2025 at 11:13 AM
Yes Nigel. And we have a name for people who find themselves doing this a lot. Starts with “L”. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Hmm. Try using Google Maps to search for "Vaccine". Its autocomplete brings up a list - typically a set of local pharmacies and clinics that offer vaccinations.
Then hit "Enter".
Everything vanishes & Google Maps denies being able to find a thing.
Nothing similar with e.g., "Physiotherapy".
Then hit "Enter".
Everything vanishes & Google Maps denies being able to find a thing.
Nothing similar with e.g., "Physiotherapy".
September 4, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Hmm. Try using Google Maps to search for "Vaccine". Its autocomplete brings up a list - typically a set of local pharmacies and clinics that offer vaccinations.
Then hit "Enter".
Everything vanishes & Google Maps denies being able to find a thing.
Nothing similar with e.g., "Physiotherapy".
Then hit "Enter".
Everything vanishes & Google Maps denies being able to find a thing.
Nothing similar with e.g., "Physiotherapy".
And now we have Office deciding that what I really want is for every new sheet to default to R1C1 format, which was all the rage in 1982.
September 3, 2025 at 4:45 PM
And now we have Office deciding that what I really want is for every new sheet to default to R1C1 format, which was all the rage in 1982.
The trouble is, history suggests that the: "Our good king, misled by his evil advisors - if only he knew" stage of delusion can last for decades.
September 3, 2025 at 10:43 AM
The trouble is, history suggests that the: "Our good king, misled by his evil advisors - if only he knew" stage of delusion can last for decades.
(As I remember, they hadn't published that many papers on the effectiveness vs serious illness/hospitalisation by the time the roll-outs starting in Israel and the UK. So it was still striking how much *better* vaccines worked against serious cases. E.g., this study on intensive care admissions.)
September 2, 2025 at 8:20 AM
(As I remember, they hadn't published that many papers on the effectiveness vs serious illness/hospitalisation by the time the roll-outs starting in Israel and the UK. So it was still striking how much *better* vaccines worked against serious cases. E.g., this study on intensive care admissions.)
OK, that's a new Windows 11 bug to me. The toolbar clock insists it's 21:07 on September 1 (i.e., yesterday), and I can't persuade it any different. World clock, internal clock happily show the current time. Restart apparently only approach that works.
September 2, 2025 at 6:43 AM
OK, that's a new Windows 11 bug to me. The toolbar clock insists it's 21:07 on September 1 (i.e., yesterday), and I can't persuade it any different. World clock, internal clock happily show the current time. Restart apparently only approach that works.
(A regular reminder that it's easy to jump to conclusions about the drivers behind trends in immunisation uptake in London.
It's worth testing hypotheses against observed temporal and ethnic-group patterns before assuming you understand what's going on.) www.thelancet.com/journals/ecl...
It's worth testing hypotheses against observed temporal and ethnic-group patterns before assuming you understand what's going on.) www.thelancet.com/journals/ecl...
August 28, 2025 at 3:29 PM
(A regular reminder that it's easy to jump to conclusions about the drivers behind trends in immunisation uptake in London.
It's worth testing hypotheses against observed temporal and ethnic-group patterns before assuming you understand what's going on.) www.thelancet.com/journals/ecl...
It's worth testing hypotheses against observed temporal and ethnic-group patterns before assuming you understand what's going on.) www.thelancet.com/journals/ecl...