Paul J Davies
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pauljdavies.bsky.social
Paul J Davies
@pauljdavies.bsky.social
5.1K followers 1.3K following 6.3K posts
Has views on banking and finance for Bloomberg Opinion.
Just because you “like” something doesn’t mean you *like* something…
Money. Music. Books and Bad like really atrocious Jokes. Also #COYS
Posts Replies Media Videos
pauljdavies.bsky.social
Calls to mind one of my favourite Raymond Carver poems>
Rain Woke up this morning with a terrific urge to lie in bed all day and read. Fought against it for a minute. Then looked out the window at the rain. And gave over. Put myself entirely in the keep of this rainy morning. Would I live my life over again? Make the same unforgiveable mistakes? Yes, given half a chance. Yes.
November 14, 2025 at 11:49 AM
pauljdavies.bsky.social
Consolation for Rachel Reeves this morning. “Adulthood is a sham.”
What follows from this is that we can't also really do any of the things we do as adults. Mastery and development and learning from experience, and learning itself, not to mention adult sexuality and the use of language, are a cover-up. The self may aspire, but it can never really achieve: indeed, it may only be able to aspire - which makes a mockery of all our cultural ideals and ambitions. To want something is to be left out of having it. So success, like growing up, is a form of denial. Competition reveals nothing. Adulthood is a sham. Adulthood is you and everyone else believing you have won an Olympic swimming medal when you can't even swim.
November 14, 2025 at 9:46 AM
pauljdavies.bsky.social
What?
Sky News alert: Powerful 'cannibal storm' set to hit Earth today - and it could disrupt communications and GPS
November 12, 2025 at 1:58 PM
pauljdavies.bsky.social
More good stuff on the debt building AI from my colleague Shuli Ren >> Creditors are still demanding extra yield to fund the AI infrastructure buildout. That's a good sign www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Oracle has been one of the biggest borrowers and spenders on data centers - and its borrowing costs have risen the most. Big tech company borrowing costs used to be lower than other blue chips. Not any more.
November 12, 2025 at 10:14 AM
pauljdavies.bsky.social
Heard on the Street: Microsoft’s new disclosures about its dealings with OpenAI only underscore how much remains hidden www.wsj.com/tech/ai/micr...
Microsoft said it owned 27% of OpenAI after an overhaul of the AI company’s corporate structure that was completed in October. Microsoft said it booked $4.1 billion of losses from OpenAI last quarter, equivalent to 12% of Microsoft’s pretax profit, which marked the first time Microsoft had made such a disclosure. In addition, it said OpenAI had agreed to buy $250 billion of Microsoft’s cloud-computing services, although it didn’t provide a time frame or say how OpenAI would fund the purchases. It also said, in an Oct. 28 blog post before its earnings release, that its OpenAI investment was worth $135 billion. Microsoft in its quarterly report didn’t disclose the carrying amount for its OpenAI stake, but it is a much smaller number. In a footnote, Microsoft said the carrying value for all its equity-method investments was $1.8 billion as of Sept. 30, down from $6 billion a quarter earlier. The discrepancy exists because the carrying value reflects Microsoft’s original investments in OpenAI, adjusted for its proportionate share of OpenAI’s losses, rather than OpenAI’s current market value. It now seems likely that Microsoft soon could write down its OpenAI stake’s value to zero, assuming OpenAI keeps bleeding money. In that case, Microsoft’s disclosures about OpenAI could become even more scant. Under the equity method of accounting, Microsoft’s losses from OpenAI would be capped once the carrying amount fell to zero, while any new investments in OpenAI would increase the carrying amount.
November 11, 2025 at 4:52 PM
pauljdavies.bsky.social
Good column. And some top turns of phrase. “Empurpled megaphone”! 🤣
Tina Brown: The made farrago at the BBC.

open.substack.com/pub/tinabrow...
It's no surprise that The Daily Telegraph, empurpled megaphone of the right, led the anti-BBC charge-or that Trump, on Truth Social, thanked it "for exposing these Corrupt 'Journalists.'" The paper's front page displayed the familiar, disheveled mug shot of former pantomime PM Boris Johnson, ousted from Downing Street for his own ethical lapses, foaming about the BBC's moral malfeasance. (Lest we forget, Johnson's own nomination for BBC chairman, Richard Sharp, had to quit after it was revealed that, shortly before his appointment, Sharp had helped broker an £800K loan for Boris.)
November 11, 2025 at 2:15 PM
pauljdavies.bsky.social
I’m going to stuck on this for days. There is no answer to the question sacred tradition or nostalgic evasion? What can you let go and what more do you lose?
From: On Giving Up by Adam Phillips.
The Crow in fact gave up their Sun Dance around 1875, about a decade before they were moved into their reservation. 'One needs to recognize the destruction,' Lear writes, 'if one is to move beyond it. In the abstract, there is no answer to the question: is the Sun Dance the maintenance of a sacred tradition or is it a nostalgic evasion?' We should consider, as Lear begins to do, what not giving up would have entailed. The options seem stark: mourning the Sun Dance (what Lear, as a psychoanalyst, calls recognizing the destruction in order to move beyond it); or simply maintaining a sacred tradition even though the dance has lost all its practical and sacred function, and therefore runs the risk of degenerating into the self-parody of nostalgia. Why not give it up? If this was a quantitative question, which it isn't, we might ask how much we can bear to lose, or give up. Or, more simply: how can giving up be redescribed, and with a view to what exactly? There is pragmatism - redescription in the service of an appealing or at least viable future - or mourning, a felt relinquishing of the past in the hope of more life emerging. Pragmatism or mourning?
November 8, 2025 at 8:03 PM
pauljdavies.bsky.social
Mel Gibson as William Wallace: "They may take out lives, but they'll never take our footlong"
November 7, 2025 at 10:41 AM
pauljdavies.bsky.social
UBS Chair Colm Kelleher isn't the only person worried about credit ratings arbitrage and optimization or weak insurance regulators. Marc Rowan of Apollo disagrees. Here's why Kelleher is right. Via @opinion.bloomberg.com >> www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Change in the share of AuM from insurers in Private Credit funds. In 2021 they provided a 32% share, in 2024 that had grown to 43%. Source: Oliver Wyman.
November 6, 2025 at 11:42 AM
pauljdavies.bsky.social
Private equity firms still aren’t sending enough cash back to investors and struggling to exit their holdings despite an investment banking boom. But some firms are struggling more than others… #Blackstone #Carlyle #Apollo
Private Equity Must Sell More

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Private equity capital calls and distributions. Payouts have slumped since 2021 and after a spike to $120bn at the end of 2024 dropped to $50bn in the middle of this year. Private equity disposals by Blackstone and Carlyle. The former has maintained a good run rate in the past couple of years while the latter is selling fewer assets.
November 5, 2025 at 9:00 AM
pauljdavies.bsky.social
I love the smell of onions and mustard in the mornings!
November 4, 2025 at 4:15 PM
pauljdavies.bsky.social
New financial meme just dropped

www.ft.com/content/4285...
Andrea Orcel on an FT composed image with the logo of Commerzbank floating just above his outstretched hand. I've labelled the CBK logo "butterfly" and along the bottom have written "Is this cross-border M&A?"
November 3, 2025 at 11:07 AM
pauljdavies.bsky.social
I don't know what else is going on here, but this looks like it could be a reaction of Meta's on balance sheet unsecured bonds to the sale of its monster <cough> off balance sheet debt >>
Yields on a 30-year, 5.4%, AA-minus rated corporate bond from Meta issued last year. It's the company's most liquid bond according to the BBG Terminal. It's fairly volatile, but definitely saw a sharp jump this week.
October 31, 2025 at 9:48 AM
pauljdavies.bsky.social
They... er... come again?
*The council has also fined people for failing to rent out properties without a licence.* In one instance last year, it imposed penalties of more than £3,000, split between the property owner and letting agent.
October 30, 2025 at 1:24 PM
pauljdavies.bsky.social
Strong, if unorthodox, opening to the BBVA earnings call according to the auto transcription >>
LIVE TRANSCRIPT 2025-10-30 Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA SM Equity) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Speaker 1 Oh, this is how we dream. Come with me and learn to fly. We can fly together. Sail across the painted sky. Ho ho ho ho ho ho ho. This is how we dream. Come with me and learn to fly. We can fly together. Sail across the painted sky. This is how we dream. Come with me and learn to fly. We can say it together. Sail across the sky. Oh ho ho ho ho ho ho ho ho ho. Oh ho ho ho ho ho ho ho ho. This is how we dream. Come with me and learn to fly. We can fly together. Sail across the painted sky. Oh ho ho ho ho ho ho.
October 30, 2025 at 9:54 AM
pauljdavies.bsky.social
BNP and HSBC are both being vague about a few awkward questions right now, but only one is being punished for it by shareholders. Via @opinion.bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Chart showing valuation as a multiple of book value for HSBC, BNP and the Stoxx Europe Banks index. HSBC has recovered from uncertainty over its Hang Seng deal and trades at more than 1.3-times book; BNP has struggled since the Sudan lawsuit decision in early October and trades at 0.6-times book.
October 29, 2025 at 10:27 AM
pauljdavies.bsky.social
His answers on that are just argh… I swear if that was my kid I’d send them to their room with no phone or computer to think about their behaviour for a while!
October 24, 2025 at 7:30 AM
pauljdavies.bsky.social
So many of Farage’s responses in here are vacuous, stroppy or elusive. There’s almost no policy area on which he can be pinned down. And then we get there: It’s just about the vibes. Interview with Mishal Husain via @bloomberg.com

www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
What happens if you are elected to government and you can’t find the savings you want? You had all kinds of tax-cutting plans, which are now having to be rethought. Is that because they were unworkable? No, I’m not rethinking them. I suspect what we come [up with] will be a lot more radical than what you saw there. More radical in which way? More tax cuts or more austerity? We need an attitudinal change towards success, towards money, towards business, towards tax and incentives. This is stuff that you can’t necessarily write in a manifesto. Well, you’re going to have to though, aren’t you? No, you can’t. I’m talking about attitudinal change within society. You can’t put any of that in manifestos. It’s about a buzz. It’s about a vibe. It’s about how a country feels. But if you don’t succeed as prime minister, it’s not the same as your personal success. The fortunes of the country are riding on that. Yes. So you are going to need more than a vibe. Well I think the two are the same thing. We’re in that much trouble. You as one man, and the vibe you create, will save the country? Well, it’s not just me, is it? There’s a whole movement here now. I don’t do many interviews these days. I allow others to go and do it.
October 24, 2025 at 7:17 AM
pauljdavies.bsky.social
Jane Fraser faced skepticism inside and outside Citigroup when she took the giant bank's helm, but she's earned her new beefed up title. via @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Citi stock versus JPM, Wells Fargo and BofA. Citi has outperformed over 12 months by a fair bit. Projected returns for the same four banks. Citi is still a long way behind.
October 23, 2025 at 1:50 PM
pauljdavies.bsky.social
the norms...
Norm Peterson stares with resignation at a very badly poured glass of beer which is about 70% froth.
October 22, 2025 at 4:25 PM
pauljdavies.bsky.social
Barclays took the Tricolor hits of US peers, but had misses on big IPOs and stock trading - it's investment bank is lagging, again. There is progress at the group this year. Higher return targets are coming but the margin for error is slim. @opinion.bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Revenue gains in Q3 year-on-year: Barclays IB versus US average. Barclays is waaaay behind on everything apart from FICC trading. On equity raising fees - US average was 44% growth, Barclays was sub-16%; on M&A US average of 31% beats Barclays's 9%; and on stock trading the US 21% beats Barclays's 3%.
October 22, 2025 at 1:43 PM
pauljdavies.bsky.social
What?

Pardons (and commutations)
A chart showing the number of pardons and commutations made by recent US presidents. Biden smahed records with more than 4000 in his four years; Trump has already done more than 1600 in nine months...
October 22, 2025 at 12:20 PM
pauljdavies.bsky.social
For breakfast on a Monday tho?!
An old advert for Guinness: "Guinness is good for you. Gives you strength." amie Dimon was sitting on the 13th floor of his new headquarters on a Monday morning, sipping a Guinness and looking out at the Manhattan skyline. It was the first day that JPMorgan Chase’s massive skyscraper at 270 Park Avenue was opening to employees; the CEO had arrived with his architect to toast the building, a $3 billion monument to work.
October 20, 2025 at 1:38 PM
pauljdavies.bsky.social
My take on what he's doing is more like keeping the rest of his people paranoid as his eventual retirement approaches. But also that there are troubling things to keep an eye on. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon has adopted the role of Wall Street’s wary old warrior in recent years, regularly warning about the troubles he’s watching even as the bank has turned in strong profits and few unusual losses.
October 20, 2025 at 12:05 PM
pauljdavies.bsky.social
Kids, never let almost complete ignorance stand in your way of achieving your dreams!
"Prometheus is kind of the patron saint of what it means to be American," Calvin says. "The West is the thing where original things happen, and that's a very rare mineral in human history, and we have to preserve the social structures that make it possible."
October 18, 2025 at 5:42 PM