Paul Hodges
@paulhodges1.bsky.social
Exceptional geopolitical forecasting record as chairman of New Normal Consulting; Experienced adviser to major companies and financial institutions
Pinned
Paul Hodges
@paulhodges1.bsky.social
· Apr 5
Here’s the iPhone. Here’s the iPhone With Tariffs.
This is what Apple pays for components inside its bestselling phone, and how Trump’s China tariffs could raise the bill.
www.wsj.com
Pre-tariffs, the iPhone 16 Pro 256GB version cost Apple $580 to produce. With tariffs, the cost rises to $850. The current sales price is $1,100. So does Apple hold the price and take a massive hit to margins? Or does it add $270 to the price and risk losing sales? www.wsj.com/tech/persona...
Reposted by Paul Hodges
I know you've heard that a federal judge ordered the release of 5 year old Liam Conejo Arias and his father, and that they're now home.
But did you look at the judge's order?
It's less than 2.5 pages and well worth a minute. "Jesus wept."
Link to pdf: storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
But did you look at the judge's order?
It's less than 2.5 pages and well worth a minute. "Jesus wept."
Link to pdf: storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
February 2, 2026 at 7:11 PM
I know you've heard that a federal judge ordered the release of 5 year old Liam Conejo Arias and his father, and that they're now home.
But did you look at the judge's order?
It's less than 2.5 pages and well worth a minute. "Jesus wept."
Link to pdf: storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
But did you look at the judge's order?
It's less than 2.5 pages and well worth a minute. "Jesus wept."
Link to pdf: storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
Reposted by Paul Hodges
WOLFF: “.. if the American public knew the real nature of Donald Trump’s long relationship with Jeffery Epstein, they would turn away in horror and revulsion. So sue me. Let’s sue each other. I have nothing to hide, Mr. President, but you surely do.”
@michaelwolffnyc.bsky.social
@michaelwolffnyc.bsky.social
February 2, 2026 at 8:45 PM
WOLFF: “.. if the American public knew the real nature of Donald Trump’s long relationship with Jeffery Epstein, they would turn away in horror and revulsion. So sue me. Let’s sue each other. I have nothing to hide, Mr. President, but you surely do.”
@michaelwolffnyc.bsky.social
@michaelwolffnyc.bsky.social
Reposted by Paul Hodges
Heroes come in many forms and this is one of them
February 1, 2026 at 8:17 PM
Heroes come in many forms and this is one of them
Chemicals contribute to 96% of manufactured goods. So if the Commission and governments don't now provide major support at this time of crisis, the whole European economy will be at risk. new-normal.com/chemical-com...
Europe's chemical industry moves into crisis mode - New Normal
9% of Europe's chemical capacity is already scheduled for closure. Petrochemicals is the worst impacted, with 14% of capacity closing
new-normal.com
February 1, 2026 at 10:31 AM
Chemicals contribute to 96% of manufactured goods. So if the Commission and governments don't now provide major support at this time of crisis, the whole European economy will be at risk. new-normal.com/chemical-com...
Reposted by Paul Hodges
Federal judge has ordered the release of Liam Ramos (the bunny hat boy) and his father. A brief and rather remarkable order. Clearly written to be shared widely, so please do. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
January 31, 2026 at 8:42 PM
Federal judge has ordered the release of Liam Ramos (the bunny hat boy) and his father. A brief and rather remarkable order. Clearly written to be shared widely, so please do. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
Reposted by Paul Hodges
Hearing that masked state agents are marauding around American cities, forcing anyone they can find into unmarked vehicles, driving them to cinemas and ordering them at gunpoint to go and watch MELANIA.
January 29, 2026 at 5:15 PM
Hearing that masked state agents are marauding around American cities, forcing anyone they can find into unmarked vehicles, driving them to cinemas and ordering them at gunpoint to go and watch MELANIA.
Reposted by Paul Hodges
Pope Leo’s top U.S. ally — Cardinal Joseph Tobin — calls on Congress to defund ICE.
January 27, 2026 at 12:55 AM
Pope Leo’s top U.S. ally — Cardinal Joseph Tobin — calls on Congress to defund ICE.
Reposted by Paul Hodges
Quite a statement by the Republican governor of Vermont
January 25, 2026 at 9:10 PM
Quite a statement by the Republican governor of Vermont
Europeans are the only ones still operating on the basis of a rules-based international order. As France’s President Macron warned last week, we need “to protect our chemical industry, our industries – because they are being literally killed." new-normal.com/chemical-com...
INEOS bond price slide confirms chemicals are in Crisis - New Normal
"The UK is losing the industry that makes everything". And it's not just the UK chemical industry that's at risk. The whole European chemical industry faces the same crisis.
new-normal.com
January 25, 2026 at 10:20 AM
Europeans are the only ones still operating on the basis of a rules-based international order. As France’s President Macron warned last week, we need “to protect our chemical industry, our industries – because they are being literally killed." new-normal.com/chemical-com...
Reposted by Paul Hodges
SOLICITOR: did you receive the papers
LIAM: AM FUMIN
SOLICITOR: why
LIAM: SNEAKY BASTARDS BUGGED ME VAN
SOLICITOR: yeah..
LIAM: A WERE SHAGGIN ME MRS IN IT
SOLICITOR: I’ve never felt more sorry for the police than I do right now
LIAM: WHAT ABOUT ME?!
SOLICITOR: they’ll need YEARS of therapy.
LIAM: AM FUMIN
SOLICITOR: why
LIAM: SNEAKY BASTARDS BUGGED ME VAN
SOLICITOR: yeah..
LIAM: A WERE SHAGGIN ME MRS IN IT
SOLICITOR: I’ve never felt more sorry for the police than I do right now
LIAM: WHAT ABOUT ME?!
SOLICITOR: they’ll need YEARS of therapy.
January 23, 2026 at 9:16 PM
SOLICITOR: did you receive the papers
LIAM: AM FUMIN
SOLICITOR: why
LIAM: SNEAKY BASTARDS BUGGED ME VAN
SOLICITOR: yeah..
LIAM: A WERE SHAGGIN ME MRS IN IT
SOLICITOR: I’ve never felt more sorry for the police than I do right now
LIAM: WHAT ABOUT ME?!
SOLICITOR: they’ll need YEARS of therapy.
LIAM: AM FUMIN
SOLICITOR: why
LIAM: SNEAKY BASTARDS BUGGED ME VAN
SOLICITOR: yeah..
LIAM: A WERE SHAGGIN ME MRS IN IT
SOLICITOR: I’ve never felt more sorry for the police than I do right now
LIAM: WHAT ABOUT ME?!
SOLICITOR: they’ll need YEARS of therapy.
Reposted by Paul Hodges
Sky News: Danish PM Mette Freideriksen’s note in the visitors book when she visited UK today
January 23, 2026 at 4:59 AM
Sky News: Danish PM Mette Freideriksen’s note in the visitors book when she visited UK today
Reposted by Paul Hodges
Unstable and unwell.
January 23, 2026 at 7:09 AM
Unstable and unwell.
Reposted by Paul Hodges
“Trump's decided to sink the EU,” declares one Russian paper today. Lots about Greenland in the Russian press. But also domestic economic problems: “Prices ready to soar”, Moscow cafes closing & “Russia’s car industry completely dependent on China’s.” #ReadingRussia
"The idea to annex world's biggest island firmly lodged in Trump's head" Russian paper on Greenland.
YouTube video by Steve Rosenberg
youtu.be
January 21, 2026 at 7:48 AM
“Trump's decided to sink the EU,” declares one Russian paper today. Lots about Greenland in the Russian press. But also domestic economic problems: “Prices ready to soar”, Moscow cafes closing & “Russia’s car industry completely dependent on China’s.” #ReadingRussia
Reposted by Paul Hodges
Today’s Russian papers on Trump/Greenland: “Europe’s at a total loss. It’s a pleasure to watch.” Government paper: “Europe doesn’t need the American greatness Trump is promoting…the Old World's keen to keep Greenland for itself, even at the risk of Nato’s collapse.” #ReadingRussia
“Europe’s at a loss. It’s a pleasure to watch,” writes Russian newspaper on Trump & Greenland.
YouTube video by Steve Rosenberg
youtu.be
January 19, 2026 at 7:44 AM
Today’s Russian papers on Trump/Greenland: “Europe’s at a total loss. It’s a pleasure to watch.” Government paper: “Europe doesn’t need the American greatness Trump is promoting…the Old World's keen to keep Greenland for itself, even at the risk of Nato’s collapse.” #ReadingRussia
Reposted by Paul Hodges
I'm honestly less mad at the President, who is clearly not well, that I am at his outriders and enablers.
They see messages like this and then, with straight faces, go on television or write op-eds retroactively constructing grand strategy justifications.
Pathetic.
They see messages like this and then, with straight faces, go on television or write op-eds retroactively constructing grand strategy justifications.
Pathetic.
January 19, 2026 at 7:38 AM
I'm honestly less mad at the President, who is clearly not well, that I am at his outriders and enablers.
They see messages like this and then, with straight faces, go on television or write op-eds retroactively constructing grand strategy justifications.
Pathetic.
They see messages like this and then, with straight faces, go on television or write op-eds retroactively constructing grand strategy justifications.
Pathetic.
Reposted by Paul Hodges
Reform's opponents need to keep punching this bruise.
It's a real problem for a would-be nationalist leader when they start looking like the lapdog of a hostile power.
This did a lot of damage to Oswald Mosley in the 1930s, and it could become a serious issue for Farage.
It's a real problem for a would-be nationalist leader when they start looking like the lapdog of a hostile power.
This did a lot of damage to Oswald Mosley in the 1930s, and it could become a serious issue for Farage.
It’s a real shame that Nigel Farage is too unwell to do interviews the morning after Donald Trump threatens us with sanctions.
Here he is with “the bravest man he ever met”. He campaigned to make Trump President, and has spent the last year enjoying all the chaos he has caused.
Here he is with “the bravest man he ever met”. He campaigned to make Trump President, and has spent the last year enjoying all the chaos he has caused.
January 18, 2026 at 6:23 PM
Reform's opponents need to keep punching this bruise.
It's a real problem for a would-be nationalist leader when they start looking like the lapdog of a hostile power.
This did a lot of damage to Oswald Mosley in the 1930s, and it could become a serious issue for Farage.
It's a real problem for a would-be nationalist leader when they start looking like the lapdog of a hostile power.
This did a lot of damage to Oswald Mosley in the 1930s, and it could become a serious issue for Farage.
Future demand for chemicals is no longer going to be based on a multiple of GDP growth. Instead, companies need to develop new offerings that help customers to ‘do more with less’. new-normal.com/chemical-com...
Turning Crisis into Opportunity - New Normal
Today's crisis means that companies need to find new growth strategies.
new-normal.com
January 18, 2026 at 10:04 AM
Future demand for chemicals is no longer going to be based on a multiple of GDP growth. Instead, companies need to develop new offerings that help customers to ‘do more with less’. new-normal.com/chemical-com...
Reposted by Paul Hodges
Reposted by Paul Hodges
Snowy bus stop, Bolton, January 1986 (Daily Mirror).
January 15, 2026 at 8:31 AM
Snowy bus stop, Bolton, January 1986 (Daily Mirror).
Reposted by Paul Hodges
In essence: the grunt work of decent policy- and law-making is at odds with the superficial world of those in the political-media complex.
Like Disraeli’s two nations, they have little or nothing in common.
Like Disraeli’s two nations, they have little or nothing in common.
January 14, 2026 at 7:03 AM
In essence: the grunt work of decent policy- and law-making is at odds with the superficial world of those in the political-media complex.
Like Disraeli’s two nations, they have little or nothing in common.
Like Disraeli’s two nations, they have little or nothing in common.
Reposted by Paul Hodges
POWELL: “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.”
youtu.be/KckGHaBLSn4
youtu.be/KckGHaBLSn4
Statement by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell
YouTube video by Federal Reserve
youtu.be
January 12, 2026 at 1:01 AM
POWELL: “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.”
youtu.be/KckGHaBLSn4
youtu.be/KckGHaBLSn4
Stimulus debt has created a K-shaped economy. The top 10% of US earners account for nearly half of all consumer spending, as the chart shows from JP Morgan. new-normal.com/economic-gro...
Reckoning looms for central bank stimulus as demographic crisis builds - New Normal
Central banks can carry on pumping out as much money as they want. But businesses can't sell to people who haven't been born.
new-normal.com
January 12, 2026 at 8:27 AM
Stimulus debt has created a K-shaped economy. The top 10% of US earners account for nearly half of all consumer spending, as the chart shows from JP Morgan. new-normal.com/economic-gro...
Stimulus debt has created a K-shaped economy. The top 10% of US earners account for nearly half of all consumer spending, as the chart shows from JP Morgan. new-normal.com/economic-gro...
Reckoning looms for central bank stimulus as demographic crisis builds - New Normal
Central banks can carry on pumping out as much money as they want. But businesses can't sell to people who haven't been born.
new-normal.com
January 11, 2026 at 9:59 AM
Stimulus debt has created a K-shaped economy. The top 10% of US earners account for nearly half of all consumer spending, as the chart shows from JP Morgan. new-normal.com/economic-gro...
Reposted by Paul Hodges
Today, this artist, Noval Noir, was painting a stunning portrait of Renee Good at the site of where she was killed
January 10, 2026 at 12:14 AM
Today, this artist, Noval Noir, was painting a stunning portrait of Renee Good at the site of where she was killed
Reposted by Paul Hodges
Our entire politics now is about our sundowning, failing, unpopular leader, whose powers are clearly ebbing, maniacally trying to find ways to restore his STRENGTH, POWER, and MANLINESS.
Like seizing Greenland; taking VZ’s oil; killing men in boats; terrorizing US cities; bombing other countries.
Like seizing Greenland; taking VZ’s oil; killing men in boats; terrorizing US cities; bombing other countries.
Not everyone believed me when I wrote that Trump wants Greenland becuase it would make him feel important, but that's what he told the NYT:
When asked why he needed to possess the territory, he said: “Because that’s what I feel is psychologically needed for success"
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/u...
When asked why he needed to possess the territory, he said: “Because that’s what I feel is psychologically needed for success"
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/u...
Trump Lays Out a Vision of Power Restrained Only by ‘My Own Morality’
www.nytimes.com
January 9, 2026 at 10:36 AM
Our entire politics now is about our sundowning, failing, unpopular leader, whose powers are clearly ebbing, maniacally trying to find ways to restore his STRENGTH, POWER, and MANLINESS.
Like seizing Greenland; taking VZ’s oil; killing men in boats; terrorizing US cities; bombing other countries.
Like seizing Greenland; taking VZ’s oil; killing men in boats; terrorizing US cities; bombing other countries.