Palmer Tree 🖖
@palmertree.bsky.social
I live all over, but Texas and SF feel like home. Sometimes DC. My superpower is I see so many awesome people, and I do my best to call them out. Mr. Rogers is my hero. And Ted Lasso.
I also like programming, using AI for good, and macroeconomics. He/him
I also like programming, using AI for good, and macroeconomics. He/him
We have always been at war with Oceania and ourselves
November 6, 2025 at 2:23 AM
We have always been at war with Oceania and ourselves
Main thing I'm watching these days for multiple reasons. Will determine a lot of things:
October 20, 2025 at 12:38 AM
Main thing I'm watching these days for multiple reasons. Will determine a lot of things:
I am now in love with this image for multiple reasons. Thank you @frankitodevito.bsky.social
October 19, 2025 at 4:15 AM
I am now in love with this image for multiple reasons. Thank you @frankitodevito.bsky.social
Accounting Identity. Thank you @hussmanjp.bsky.social
June 13, 2025 at 6:56 PM
Accounting Identity. Thank you @hussmanjp.bsky.social
June 1, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Heh, I use a 10 EMA on that (green) and was watching it turn this week.
May 31, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Heh, I use a 10 EMA on that (green) and was watching it turn this week.
Breadth... not so good today.
When you get "good news" and it's rejected, often a bad sign.
Bears may be in control.
When you get "good news" and it's rejected, often a bad sign.
Bears may be in control.
May 29, 2025 at 4:07 PM
Breadth... not so good today.
When you get "good news" and it's rejected, often a bad sign.
Bears may be in control.
When you get "good news" and it's rejected, often a bad sign.
Bears may be in control.
File under "why Japan is doing what it's doing", and why I think it will continue while everyone is watching tariff appeals and reading Sec 232.
And @peteratwater.bsky.social , you left us out here! This was good!
And @peteratwater.bsky.social , you left us out here! This was good!
May 29, 2025 at 5:09 AM
File under "why Japan is doing what it's doing", and why I think it will continue while everyone is watching tariff appeals and reading Sec 232.
And @peteratwater.bsky.social , you left us out here! This was good!
And @peteratwater.bsky.social , you left us out here! This was good!
Today was a 0DTE based rally, $6.1B of delta flow on 0DTE S&P500 options out of $7.7B of all of it. Much bigger than normal.
Slow news day, pump by the 0DTE crowd, not much demand for further out expirations, so not a sign of reignition.
Slow news day, pump by the 0DTE crowd, not much demand for further out expirations, so not a sign of reignition.
May 27, 2025 at 9:50 PM
Today was a 0DTE based rally, $6.1B of delta flow on 0DTE S&P500 options out of $7.7B of all of it. Much bigger than normal.
Slow news day, pump by the 0DTE crowd, not much demand for further out expirations, so not a sign of reignition.
Slow news day, pump by the 0DTE crowd, not much demand for further out expirations, so not a sign of reignition.
What I see, courtesy of @radgrapes.bsky.social
May 23, 2025 at 2:24 PM
What I see, courtesy of @radgrapes.bsky.social
Breadth still negative today and NYSE 52 Week Highs - 52 Week Lows just went negative. ( A @hussmanjp.bsky.social favorite )
Vol is not priced for the fact that market makers will pull away during any large move in this environment. We got a taste of that yesterday. Lots of ugly conditions...
Vol is not priced for the fact that market makers will pull away during any large move in this environment. We got a taste of that yesterday. Lots of ugly conditions...
May 22, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Breadth still negative today and NYSE 52 Week Highs - 52 Week Lows just went negative. ( A @hussmanjp.bsky.social favorite )
Vol is not priced for the fact that market makers will pull away during any large move in this environment. We got a taste of that yesterday. Lots of ugly conditions...
Vol is not priced for the fact that market makers will pull away during any large move in this environment. We got a taste of that yesterday. Lots of ugly conditions...
Big flip on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator today. Bulls not in control now.
May 21, 2025 at 9:15 PM
Big flip on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator today. Bulls not in control now.
4/ Who knew you could pin the VIX (well, when there aren't tape bombs every five minutes).
That ends tomorrow. May be a nothing-burger, but if it drifts above 20 again, some traders use that as a signal to move.
That ends tomorrow. May be a nothing-burger, but if it drifts above 20 again, some traders use that as a signal to move.
May 21, 2025 at 1:42 AM
4/ Who knew you could pin the VIX (well, when there aren't tape bombs every five minutes).
That ends tomorrow. May be a nothing-burger, but if it drifts above 20 again, some traders use that as a signal to move.
That ends tomorrow. May be a nothing-burger, but if it drifts above 20 again, some traders use that as a signal to move.
3/ TLT. Uh, didn't we see these prices in... Oct 2023? That was bad then... but hey, we are no longer in an interest rate sensitive economy, amirite? And, flat yield curves are great, too!
Also, what the heck is also going on with the 40 year JGB?
Also, what the heck is also going on with the 40 year JGB?
May 21, 2025 at 1:42 AM
3/ TLT. Uh, didn't we see these prices in... Oct 2023? That was bad then... but hey, we are no longer in an interest rate sensitive economy, amirite? And, flat yield curves are great, too!
Also, what the heck is also going on with the 40 year JGB?
Also, what the heck is also going on with the 40 year JGB?
2/ This is for @hmeisler.bsky.social ... SPY divided by "utes". Simple risk on/risk off indicator. Larger structure making some higher highs and lower lows. About to turn another corner? We'll see.
May 21, 2025 at 1:42 AM
2/ This is for @hmeisler.bsky.social ... SPY divided by "utes". Simple risk on/risk off indicator. Larger structure making some higher highs and lower lows. About to turn another corner? We'll see.
Things that make you go hmm... (conditions, not signals. You know the drill)
1/ Put/Call ratio (10 EMA, equity + indices). Hitting ratios like it's 2021.
It's not 2021.
1/ Put/Call ratio (10 EMA, equity + indices). Hitting ratios like it's 2021.
It's not 2021.
May 21, 2025 at 1:42 AM
Things that make you go hmm... (conditions, not signals. You know the drill)
1/ Put/Call ratio (10 EMA, equity + indices). Hitting ratios like it's 2021.
It's not 2021.
1/ Put/Call ratio (10 EMA, equity + indices). Hitting ratios like it's 2021.
It's not 2021.
You used the term Skinner Box. I like you.
May 16, 2025 at 2:08 PM
You used the term Skinner Box. I like you.
Permits. They lead starts.
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/05/hous...
As usual, @calculatedrisk.bsky.social is awesome.
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/05/hous...
As usual, @calculatedrisk.bsky.social is awesome.
May 16, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Permits. They lead starts.
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/05/hous...
As usual, @calculatedrisk.bsky.social is awesome.
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/05/hous...
As usual, @calculatedrisk.bsky.social is awesome.
Psst: look at NFIB, not CPI. From @epbresearch.bsky.social
May 13, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Psst: look at NFIB, not CPI. From @epbresearch.bsky.social
Rough Google Translate of their statement. Three main words... "we are assessing" and a whole lot of stop the unilateral tariffs and "wrong practices" before we talk:
May 2, 2025 at 1:07 AM
Rough Google Translate of their statement. Three main words... "we are assessing" and a whole lot of stop the unilateral tariffs and "wrong practices" before we talk:
Of course Kris Sidial has a more specific explanation. And he predicted it would happen for the day.
April 29, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Of course Kris Sidial has a more specific explanation. And he predicted it would happen for the day.
Yup, really a "wait and see" day, so they went to put selling.
Took a screen shot of today's 5500 SPX P (time is central time, so 1:30pm EST is 12:30pm). Volume starts at 1:30pm EST but ramps up over time, esp just before 2:30 EST.
If no one is there, they're just making theta decay do the work
Took a screen shot of today's 5500 SPX P (time is central time, so 1:30pm EST is 12:30pm). Volume starts at 1:30pm EST but ramps up over time, esp just before 2:30 EST.
If no one is there, they're just making theta decay do the work
April 28, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Yup, really a "wait and see" day, so they went to put selling.
Took a screen shot of today's 5500 SPX P (time is central time, so 1:30pm EST is 12:30pm). Volume starts at 1:30pm EST but ramps up over time, esp just before 2:30 EST.
If no one is there, they're just making theta decay do the work
Took a screen shot of today's 5500 SPX P (time is central time, so 1:30pm EST is 12:30pm). Volume starts at 1:30pm EST but ramps up over time, esp just before 2:30 EST.
If no one is there, they're just making theta decay do the work