Paddy Carter
@paddycarter.bsky.social
Head of development economics at British International Investment, formerly CGD, ODI, lapsed academic economist and macroeconomics hobbyist.
https://sites.google.com/site/paddycarter/
https://sites.google.com/site/paddycarter/
v interesting work showing Indian bureaucrats successfully picking winners. iirc a set of blanket benefits for starts-ups results in more duff firms surviving, but discretionary awards of R&D benefits and tax holidays fare v well. www.rschhina.com/_files/ugd/6...
(via @afinetheorem.bsky.social )
(via @afinetheorem.bsky.social )
www.rschhina.com
November 24, 2025 at 2:42 PM
v interesting work showing Indian bureaucrats successfully picking winners. iirc a set of blanket benefits for starts-ups results in more duff firms surviving, but discretionary awards of R&D benefits and tax holidays fare v well. www.rschhina.com/_files/ugd/6...
(via @afinetheorem.bsky.social )
(via @afinetheorem.bsky.social )
I was looking at my employer's investments in battery swapping and 3-wheeler EVs in India and it turns out 16% of 3-wheelers were electric in 2023 (prob earlier, reporting lag) and the latest number is now 57% - that is quite astonishing growth. I wonder if it's noticeably improving air quality
November 21, 2025 at 1:42 PM
I was looking at my employer's investments in battery swapping and 3-wheeler EVs in India and it turns out 16% of 3-wheelers were electric in 2023 (prob earlier, reporting lag) and the latest number is now 57% - that is quite astonishing growth. I wonder if it's noticeably improving air quality
In development finance, we often hear that the risk of EMDE investing is lower than the market thinks and so mobilising investment using publicly supplied credit risk guarantees is almost a free lunch. Here is a blog about why there's a bit more to it than that
www.bii.co.uk/en/news-insi...
www.bii.co.uk/en/news-insi...
Guarantees and the cost of capital - British International Investment
www.bii.co.uk
November 21, 2025 at 11:56 AM
In development finance, we often hear that the risk of EMDE investing is lower than the market thinks and so mobilising investment using publicly supplied credit risk guarantees is almost a free lunch. Here is a blog about why there's a bit more to it than that
www.bii.co.uk/en/news-insi...
www.bii.co.uk/en/news-insi...
would this virtual power plant (assembled from putting batteries in people's homes) work in the UK? It looks like regulators must allow participation in grid markets - does anyone know if that is possible here? I guess if anyone will do it here @octopus.energy will
www.ess-news.com/2025/10/09/b...
www.ess-news.com/2025/10/09/b...
Base Power hauls in $1 billion to take its distributed home battery model beyond Texas - Energy Storage
The two-year-old power company has deployed more than 100 MWh of residential battery capacity across Texas, pooling thousands of installs in homes into a grid resource as a virtual power plant. It wil...
www.ess-news.com
November 20, 2025 at 11:22 AM
would this virtual power plant (assembled from putting batteries in people's homes) work in the UK? It looks like regulators must allow participation in grid markets - does anyone know if that is possible here? I guess if anyone will do it here @octopus.energy will
www.ess-news.com/2025/10/09/b...
www.ess-news.com/2025/10/09/b...
what the local constabulary has done here, to improve its response to shoplifting, seems so basic, this article just makes me worry about widespread incompetence elsewhere. www.ft.com/content/38e5...
How one police force is taking the fight to the shoplifters
Northamptonshire Police has shifted its approach to retail theft
www.ft.com
November 20, 2025 at 10:20 AM
what the local constabulary has done here, to improve its response to shoplifting, seems so basic, this article just makes me worry about widespread incompetence elsewhere. www.ft.com/content/38e5...
how the hell does anyone infer from bumper sales by the selling shovels to gold prospectors company that there is no bubble?
November 20, 2025 at 9:12 AM
how the hell does anyone infer from bumper sales by the selling shovels to gold prospectors company that there is no bubble?
Reposted by Paddy Carter
In Nigeria, 30% of workers experience delays receiving their wages. In today's JMP, Daniel Sonnenstuhl runs an RCT and find workers work harder when faced by delayed pay - but making pay reliable increases willingness to accept job offers blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva...?
Why would employees work harder when firms don’t pay their wages? Guest blog by Daniel Sonnenstuhl
blogs.worldbank.org
November 19, 2025 at 3:27 PM
In Nigeria, 30% of workers experience delays receiving their wages. In today's JMP, Daniel Sonnenstuhl runs an RCT and find workers work harder when faced by delayed pay - but making pay reliable increases willingness to accept job offers blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva...?
Reposted by Paddy Carter
First, here’s a link to my essay about the shift (on our brand new website, click around!) and what we're trying to do in our second decade:
coefficientgiving.org/research/op...
coefficientgiving.org/research/op...
Open Philanthropy Is Now Coefficient Giving | Coefficient Giving
Our new name marks our next chapter as we double down on our longstanding goal of helping more funders increase their impact. We believe philanthropy can be a far more vital force for progress than it is today.
coefficientgiving.org
November 18, 2025 at 3:07 PM
First, here’s a link to my essay about the shift (on our brand new website, click around!) and what we're trying to do in our second decade:
coefficientgiving.org/research/op...
coefficientgiving.org/research/op...
John Banville starts this review by knifing Updike but then fails to explain why www.theguardian.com/books/2025/n...
John Updike: A Life in Letters review – the man incapable of writing a bad sentence
Friends, enemies and lovers animate more than 60 years of the author’s remarkable correspondence
www.theguardian.com
November 18, 2025 at 12:32 PM
John Banville starts this review by knifing Updike but then fails to explain why www.theguardian.com/books/2025/n...
Guardian doing its thing. Outrage over worlds biggest emitter getting climate finance www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
China and Saudi Arabia among nations receiving climate loans, analysis reveals
Investigation by Guardian and Carbon Brief finds just a fifth of funds to fight global heating went to poorest 44 countries
www.theguardian.com
November 14, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Guardian doing its thing. Outrage over worlds biggest emitter getting climate finance www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
HMG is recruiting DG Economics and Chief Economic Advisor to the Treasury. Lots of expertise on display on my feed today, but will any of you step up?
Quick Check Needed
www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk
November 14, 2025 at 10:39 AM
HMG is recruiting DG Economics and Chief Economic Advisor to the Treasury. Lots of expertise on display on my feed today, but will any of you step up?
The replacement better have a wave machine and this article does not mention one www.timeout.com/london/news/...
This beloved 1980s leisure centre in southeast London is getting demolished
A £115 million leisure centre will replace the old one.
www.timeout.com
November 14, 2025 at 8:15 AM
The replacement better have a wave machine and this article does not mention one www.timeout.com/london/news/...
He may be a bastard, but he's our bastard
November 13, 2025 at 1:22 PM
He may be a bastard, but he's our bastard
Dangote follows his move into Ethiopia with a move into Zimbabwe. In both cases giving countries a fossil-fuelled path to development that Western development agencies and investors won't. (Not saying it's good, not saying it's bad).
www.reuters.com/world/africa...
www.reuters.com/world/africa...
www.reuters.com
November 13, 2025 at 9:05 AM
Dangote follows his move into Ethiopia with a move into Zimbabwe. In both cases giving countries a fossil-fuelled path to development that Western development agencies and investors won't. (Not saying it's good, not saying it's bad).
www.reuters.com/world/africa...
www.reuters.com/world/africa...
Reposted by Paddy Carter
📚New CEPR #eBook out now! Frontiers of Digital Finance, edited by Dirk Niepelt, explores how new technologies are rapidly reshaping international #finance. Topics include: #stablecoins, #DeFi, tokenisation, regulation, implementation, and more.
📥Free download here: cepr.org/publications...
#EconSky
📥Free download here: cepr.org/publications...
#EconSky
November 12, 2025 at 10:12 AM
📚New CEPR #eBook out now! Frontiers of Digital Finance, edited by Dirk Niepelt, explores how new technologies are rapidly reshaping international #finance. Topics include: #stablecoins, #DeFi, tokenisation, regulation, implementation, and more.
📥Free download here: cepr.org/publications...
#EconSky
📥Free download here: cepr.org/publications...
#EconSky
I hope Italy isn't the only country trying to find people who did this. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
Milan prosecutors investigate alleged ‘sniper tourism’ during Bosnian war
Groups from Italy and elsewhere alleged to have paid Serb soldiers to shoot Sarajevo residents during siege
www.theguardian.com
November 12, 2025 at 10:28 AM
I hope Italy isn't the only country trying to find people who did this. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
I am pleased to see Ron Smith is still working. He introduced me to the survivorship bias aircraft in 2005 (he was no spring chicken then) - to my surprise, 2005 turns out to be the same year that image was created, based on Wald www.cameronmoll.com/journal/abra...
November 11, 2025 at 5:41 PM
I am pleased to see Ron Smith is still working. He introduced me to the survivorship bias aircraft in 2005 (he was no spring chicken then) - to my surprise, 2005 turns out to be the same year that image was created, based on Wald www.cameronmoll.com/journal/abra...
Reposted by Paddy Carter
Here’s an archive for UK people blocked with the Internet Online Safety message.
archive.ph/2025.11.08-2...
archive.ph/2025.11.08-2...
archive.ph
November 10, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Here’s an archive for UK people blocked with the Internet Online Safety message.
archive.ph/2025.11.08-2...
archive.ph/2025.11.08-2...
Great essay about the World Bank 1993 East Asian Miracle report, and its downplaying of industrial policy, by Nancy Birdsall, who as acting chief economist become the "designated defender of the book" for its in-house review and saw "the resistance inside the Bank"
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
pubs.aeaweb.org
November 7, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Great essay about the World Bank 1993 East Asian Miracle report, and its downplaying of industrial policy, by Nancy Birdsall, who as acting chief economist become the "designated defender of the book" for its in-house review and saw "the resistance inside the Bank"
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
I am really enjoying this account. It turns out painting dreary people in late night diners guy was mostly a paint light outdoors guy
Cobb's Barns, South Truro - 1930
https://botfrens.com/collections/173/contents/3104366
https://botfrens.com/collections/173/contents/3104366
November 7, 2025 at 9:13 AM
I am really enjoying this account. It turns out painting dreary people in late night diners guy was mostly a paint light outdoors guy
Reposted by Paddy Carter
New substack: why governments cannot offer competence alone: chrisdillow.substack.com/p/on-compete...
On competenciness
Centrists don't offer actual competence, but merely a false illusion of it.
chrisdillow.substack.com
November 6, 2025 at 12:26 PM
New substack: why governments cannot offer competence alone: chrisdillow.substack.com/p/on-compete...
November 5, 2025 at 10:24 AM
research here suggesting AI soundly beats analysts at stock picking, who make predictable mistakes. I wonder how the market will behave if dominated by AI decisions www.nber.org/papers/w34420
The Prestakes of Stock Market Investing
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
November 4, 2025 at 11:29 AM
research here suggesting AI soundly beats analysts at stock picking, who make predictable mistakes. I wonder how the market will behave if dominated by AI decisions www.nber.org/papers/w34420
this nonsense really grinds my gears. Financing "profitable projects" is "adding to debt burdens"? Objecting to investments needed to decarbonise large carbon emitting UMICs is just nuts.
Just in time for #COP30, our latest briefing highlights why MDBs are not currently fit for purpose to deliver climate finance & how they must reform to better align with the #ParisAgreement and #SDGs
🔗 re-course.org/newsupdates/...
All week, we’ll highlight our key recommendations below 🧵
🔗 re-course.org/newsupdates/...
All week, we’ll highlight our key recommendations below 🧵
November 4, 2025 at 10:49 AM
this nonsense really grinds my gears. Financing "profitable projects" is "adding to debt burdens"? Objecting to investments needed to decarbonise large carbon emitting UMICs is just nuts.