Alexander Berger
@albrgr.bsky.social
CEO of Open Philanthropy
Reposted by Alexander Berger
Every AI-bubble debate is the same 12 facts, studies, and arguments quoted back and forth, over and over.
So Tim Lee at @understandingai.skystack.xyz and I teamed up to publish a 4,000 word deep-dive analysis of all 12.
www.derekthompson.org/p/how-to-sou...
So Tim Lee at @understandingai.skystack.xyz and I teamed up to publish a 4,000 word deep-dive analysis of all 12.
www.derekthompson.org/p/how-to-sou...
How to Sound Like an Expert in Any AI Bubble Debate
There are 12 statistics, factoids, and studies that dominate every discussion about whether artificial intelligence is a bubble. Here's a deep-dive into all 12 arguments
www.derekthompson.org
November 25, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Every AI-bubble debate is the same 12 facts, studies, and arguments quoted back and forth, over and over.
So Tim Lee at @understandingai.skystack.xyz and I teamed up to publish a 4,000 word deep-dive analysis of all 12.
www.derekthompson.org/p/how-to-sou...
So Tim Lee at @understandingai.skystack.xyz and I teamed up to publish a 4,000 word deep-dive analysis of all 12.
www.derekthompson.org/p/how-to-sou...
Today, I have an article in @SSIR.org on lessons from our first decade, including:
(1) The importance of choosing causes
(2) Field-building pays off hugely
(3) Great philanthropy is possible anywhere on the risk spectrum
(4) Balancing maximization and moderation is hard
🧵
ssir.org/articles/en...
(1) The importance of choosing causes
(2) Field-building pays off hugely
(3) Great philanthropy is possible anywhere on the risk spectrum
(4) Balancing maximization and moderation is hard
🧵
ssir.org/articles/en...
November 24, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Today, I have an article in @SSIR.org on lessons from our first decade, including:
(1) The importance of choosing causes
(2) Field-building pays off hugely
(3) Great philanthropy is possible anywhere on the risk spectrum
(4) Balancing maximization and moderation is hard
🧵
ssir.org/articles/en...
(1) The importance of choosing causes
(2) Field-building pays off hugely
(3) Great philanthropy is possible anywhere on the risk spectrum
(4) Balancing maximization and moderation is hard
🧵
ssir.org/articles/en...
Great to see the US renewed funding for the Global Fund! www.devex.com/news/global...
November 21, 2025 at 11:16 PM
Great to see the US renewed funding for the Global Fund! www.devex.com/news/global...
Reposted by Alexander Berger
Investment in tech equip & software rivals the 90s in growth rates but accounted for 2/3 of all growth in H1 vs only ~15% in the late 90s. Other things going on in the 90s--broad based boom in the labor market/GDP, globalization, peace dividend, consumer optimism, labor force growth & immigration
November 19, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Investment in tech equip & software rivals the 90s in growth rates but accounted for 2/3 of all growth in H1 vs only ~15% in the late 90s. Other things going on in the 90s--broad based boom in the labor market/GDP, globalization, peace dividend, consumer optimism, labor force growth & immigration
More on our big news today:
bsky.app/profile/alb...
bsky.app/profile/alb...
November 18, 2025 at 4:17 PM
More on our big news today:
bsky.app/profile/alb...
bsky.app/profile/alb...
Some news: Open Philanthropy is now Coefficient Giving! Our mission is unchanged but the new name reflects our growing work with other donors to multiply the impact of their giving.
🧵 on our work to make philanthropy a more efficient "market" and plans going forward:
🧵 on our work to make philanthropy a more efficient "market" and plans going forward:
November 18, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Some news: Open Philanthropy is now Coefficient Giving! Our mission is unchanged but the new name reflects our growing work with other donors to multiply the impact of their giving.
🧵 on our work to make philanthropy a more efficient "market" and plans going forward:
🧵 on our work to make philanthropy a more efficient "market" and plans going forward:
I really like this R21/RTS,S malaria vaccine tracker from @1daysooner.bsky.social
1dayafrica.org/r21-campaign
1dayafrica.org/r21-campaign
November 11, 2025 at 11:54 PM
I really like this R21/RTS,S malaria vaccine tracker from @1daysooner.bsky.social
1dayafrica.org/r21-campaign
1dayafrica.org/r21-campaign
New @devex.com article, ft. @justsand.bsky.social, on our our $40m fund to accelerate economic growth in low- and middle-income countries, including a great explanation of hits-based vs. GiveWell-style philanthropic giving
www.devex.com/news/as-aid...
www.devex.com/news/as-aid...
October 21, 2025 at 10:48 PM
New @devex.com article, ft. @justsand.bsky.social, on our our $40m fund to accelerate economic growth in low- and middle-income countries, including a great explanation of hits-based vs. GiveWell-style philanthropic giving
www.devex.com/news/as-aid...
www.devex.com/news/as-aid...
Great new article in @devex.com featuring Tom Hird, who works on our Lead Exposure Action Fund. Progress is possible on reducing lead poisoning!
Full article here: www.devex.com/news/sponso...
Full article here: www.devex.com/news/sponso...
October 20, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Great new article in @devex.com featuring Tom Hird, who works on our Lead Exposure Action Fund. Progress is possible on reducing lead poisoning!
Full article here: www.devex.com/news/sponso...
Full article here: www.devex.com/news/sponso...
Good article from Bloomberg on how genetic selection causes lots of suffering for broiler chickens, featuring work from several Open Phil grantees on better broiler welfare standards.
www.bloomberg.com/news/featur...
www.bloomberg.com/news/featur...
October 10, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Good article from Bloomberg on how genetic selection causes lots of suffering for broiler chickens, featuring work from several Open Phil grantees on better broiler welfare standards.
www.bloomberg.com/news/featur...
www.bloomberg.com/news/featur...
CA Governor Newsom just signed SB 79, an important bill to make homes easier to build near transit, and arguably the biggest YIMBY win to date.
Some reflections on the bill & the history of how we got here 🧵
Some reflections on the bill & the history of how we got here 🧵
October 10, 2025 at 5:08 PM
CA Governor Newsom just signed SB 79, an important bill to make homes easier to build near transit, and arguably the biggest YIMBY win to date.
Some reflections on the bill & the history of how we got here 🧵
Some reflections on the bill & the history of how we got here 🧵
Reposted by Alexander Berger
New RAND report on an important (and messy) question: When should we actually worry about AI being used to design a pathogen? What’s plausible now vs. near-term vs. later?
(1/12)
I helped convene two expert Delphi panels in AI + Bio to weigh in.
Full report:
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
(1/12)
I helped convene two expert Delphi panels in AI + Bio to weigh in.
Full report:
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
October 5, 2025 at 3:45 PM
New RAND report on an important (and messy) question: When should we actually worry about AI being used to design a pathogen? What’s plausible now vs. near-term vs. later?
(1/12)
I helped convene two expert Delphi panels in AI + Bio to weigh in.
Full report:
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
(1/12)
I helped convene two expert Delphi panels in AI + Bio to weigh in.
Full report:
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
Now's the time for other funders to get involved in AI safety and security:
-AI advances have created more great concrete opportunities
-Recent years show progress is possible
-Policy needs diverse funding; other funders can beat Good Ventures' marginal $ by 2-5x🧵
bsky.app/profile/alb...
-AI advances have created more great concrete opportunities
-Recent years show progress is possible
-Policy needs diverse funding; other funders can beat Good Ventures' marginal $ by 2-5x🧵
bsky.app/profile/alb...
Alexander Berger (@albrgr.bsky.social)
Since 2015, seven years before the launch of ChatGPT, Open Phil has been funding efforts to address potential catastrophic risks from AI.
In a new post, Emily Oehlsen and I discuss our history in the area and our current strategy.
https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/our-approach-to-ai-safety-and-security/
https://bsky.app/profile/albrgr.bsky.social/post/3m22xidrkxd2h
bsky.app
October 2, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Now's the time for other funders to get involved in AI safety and security:
-AI advances have created more great concrete opportunities
-Recent years show progress is possible
-Policy needs diverse funding; other funders can beat Good Ventures' marginal $ by 2-5x🧵
bsky.app/profile/alb...
-AI advances have created more great concrete opportunities
-Recent years show progress is possible
-Policy needs diverse funding; other funders can beat Good Ventures' marginal $ by 2-5x🧵
bsky.app/profile/alb...
Since 2015, seven years before the launch of ChatGPT, Open Phil has been funding efforts to address potential catastrophic risks from AI.
In a new post, Emily Oehlsen and I discuss our history in the area and our current strategy.
www.openphilanthropy.org/research/ou...
bsky.app/profile/alb...
In a new post, Emily Oehlsen and I discuss our history in the area and our current strategy.
www.openphilanthropy.org/research/ou...
bsky.app/profile/alb...
October 1, 2025 at 5:01 PM
Since 2015, seven years before the launch of ChatGPT, Open Phil has been funding efforts to address potential catastrophic risks from AI.
In a new post, Emily Oehlsen and I discuss our history in the area and our current strategy.
www.openphilanthropy.org/research/ou...
bsky.app/profile/alb...
In a new post, Emily Oehlsen and I discuss our history in the area and our current strategy.
www.openphilanthropy.org/research/ou...
bsky.app/profile/alb...
Some people think Open Phil are luddites because we work on AGI safety, and others think we’re techno-utopians because we work on abundance and scientific progress. We’re neither. Here's why we think safety and accelerating progress go hand in hand: 🧵
www.openphilanthropy.org/research/wh...
www.openphilanthropy.org/research/wh...
September 30, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Some people think Open Phil are luddites because we work on AGI safety, and others think we’re techno-utopians because we work on abundance and scientific progress. We’re neither. Here's why we think safety and accelerating progress go hand in hand: 🧵
www.openphilanthropy.org/research/wh...
www.openphilanthropy.org/research/wh...
Really enjoyed this post on AI and economic growth
jzmazlish.substack.com/p/ak-or-jus...
jzmazlish.substack.com/p/ak-or-jus...
September 29, 2025 at 11:43 PM
Really enjoyed this post on AI and economic growth
jzmazlish.substack.com/p/ak-or-jus...
jzmazlish.substack.com/p/ak-or-jus...
Nice article on returns to R&D in MIT Tech Review, ft. our own @mattsclancy.bsky.social
www.technologyreview.com/2025/09/17/...
www.technologyreview.com/2025/09/17/...
September 17, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Nice article on returns to R&D in MIT Tech Review, ft. our own @mattsclancy.bsky.social
www.technologyreview.com/2025/09/17/...
www.technologyreview.com/2025/09/17/...
Some good news: NIH now seems on track to spend its $47 billion budget by the end of September
www.statnews.com/2025/09/12/...
www.statnews.com/2025/09/12/...
September 12, 2025 at 11:13 PM
Some good news: NIH now seems on track to spend its $47 billion budget by the end of September
www.statnews.com/2025/09/12/...
www.statnews.com/2025/09/12/...
Cool paper on how 2019 OPO reform has saved lives by increasing organ procurement rates. Props to Greg Segal and Jenna Arnold for their advocacy to help make this happen, and to @johnarnoldfndtn.bluesky.social for supporting this work!
www.nber.org/papers/w34140
www.nber.org/papers/w34140
September 4, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Cool paper on how 2019 OPO reform has saved lives by increasing organ procurement rates. Props to Greg Segal and Jenna Arnold for their advocacy to help make this happen, and to @johnarnoldfndtn.bluesky.social for supporting this work!
www.nber.org/papers/w34140
www.nber.org/papers/w34140
Nice article in Inside Philanthropy on our Abundance and Growth Fund
www.insidephilanthropy.com/home/heres-...
www.insidephilanthropy.com/home/heres-...
September 2, 2025 at 9:51 PM
Nice article in Inside Philanthropy on our Abundance and Growth Fund
www.insidephilanthropy.com/home/heres-...
www.insidephilanthropy.com/home/heres-...
Striking chart about the decline of moving in the US
August 26, 2025 at 10:47 PM
Striking chart about the decline of moving in the US
Excited that Open Phil is funding this @metaculus.bsky.social forecasting tournament on the future budgets and spending of NIH and NSF, and surprised that forecasters are expecting basically no cuts
www.metaculus.com/tournament/...
www.metaculus.com/tournament/...
August 25, 2025 at 9:15 PM
Excited that Open Phil is funding this @metaculus.bsky.social forecasting tournament on the future budgets and spending of NIH and NSF, and surprised that forecasters are expecting basically no cuts
www.metaculus.com/tournament/...
www.metaculus.com/tournament/...
Exciting NBER study (and NYT coverage) finding that $1,000 unconditional cash transfers in Kenya reduced under-5 deaths by 45%.
GiveWell already took this evidence into account in their positive update on GiveDirectly last fall (doesn't make a huge quantitative difference).
GiveWell already took this evidence into account in their positive update on GiveDirectly last fall (doesn't make a huge quantitative difference).
August 18, 2025 at 10:44 PM
Exciting NBER study (and NYT coverage) finding that $1,000 unconditional cash transfers in Kenya reduced under-5 deaths by 45%.
GiveWell already took this evidence into account in their positive update on GiveDirectly last fall (doesn't make a huge quantitative difference).
GiveWell already took this evidence into account in their positive update on GiveDirectly last fall (doesn't make a huge quantitative difference).
This is great
pathgolden.substack.com/p/a-forecas...
pathgolden.substack.com/p/a-forecas...
A forecaster's perspective on electoral moderation
It really helps to have skin in the game
pathgolden.substack.com
August 13, 2025 at 11:35 PM
This is great
pathgolden.substack.com/p/a-forecas...
pathgolden.substack.com/p/a-forecas...
Congratulations to Giving What We Can on reaching 10,000 pledgers who donate 10% of their income to high-impact charities!
bsky.app/profile/giv...
bsky.app/profile/giv...
August 13, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Congratulations to Giving What We Can on reaching 10,000 pledgers who donate 10% of their income to high-impact charities!
bsky.app/profile/giv...
bsky.app/profile/giv...