The Overhang
@overhang-aonz.bsky.social
Structured vibes. Aotearoa-New Zealand political takes, with an analytical bent.
Ashurst and Newlands – because of the high-level decisions the Commission made and the constraints it faced, both Ashurst and Newlands find themselves attached to electorates across geographic boundaries.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Ashurst and Newlands – because of the high-level decisions the Commission made and the constraints it faced, both Ashurst and Newlands find themselves attached to electorates across geographic boundaries.
Wellington Greens (maybe) – the flipside of spreading their vote more evenly is it makes losing both easier too.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Wellington Greens (maybe) – the flipside of spreading their vote more evenly is it makes losing both easier too.
The Greens’ chances of another Auckland seat – While the headline Labour/National contest in Mt Albert is unchanged from the 2023 nail-biter, the price the Greens pay for the boost in Auckland Central is Ricardo Menéndez March’s chances fading.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
The Greens’ chances of another Auckland seat – While the headline Labour/National contest in Mt Albert is unchanged from the 2023 nail-biter, the price the Greens pay for the boost in Auckland Central is Ricardo Menéndez March’s chances fading.
Tangi Utikere and whoever replaces Megan Woods – Palmerston North’s outward expansion into bluer exurbs makes re-election more challenging for Utikere, and the same phenomenon flipping Wigram could have contributed to Woods’ decision to go list-only.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Tangi Utikere and whoever replaces Megan Woods – Palmerston North’s outward expansion into bluer exurbs makes re-election more challenging for Utikere, and the same phenomenon flipping Wigram could have contributed to Woods’ decision to go list-only.
Technically also Judith Collins and Suze Redmayne – Both Papakura and Rangitīkei remain deeply blue, but unfavourable shifts still reduce their margins.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Technically also Judith Collins and Suze Redmayne – Both Papakura and Rangitīkei remain deeply blue, but unfavourable shifts still reduce their margins.
2023 National newcomers (Paulo Garcia, Greg Flemming, Rima Nakhle, Tim Costley) – Modestly unfavourable boundary shifts in Waitākere, Maungakiekie, Takanini, and Kapiti respectively will make defending 2023 flips harder.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
2023 National newcomers (Paulo Garcia, Greg Flemming, Rima Nakhle, Tim Costley) – Modestly unfavourable boundary shifts in Waitākere, Maungakiekie, Takanini, and Kapiti respectively will make defending 2023 flips harder.
Greg O’Connor – The seat lost in Wellington (Mana or Ōhāriu, depending how you slice it) is a straight -1 loss for Labour squeezing O’Connor out.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Greg O’Connor – The seat lost in Wellington (Mana or Ōhāriu, depending how you slice it) is a straight -1 loss for Labour squeezing O’Connor out.
Voters elsewhere in the North Island – The cost of under-packing Auckland is leaving the rest of island over-packed and underrepresented.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Voters elsewhere in the North Island – The cost of under-packing Auckland is leaving the rest of island over-packed and underrepresented.
Losers:
Wellington – Simply put: Wellington has one less MP. Population changes made this largely inevitable, but the Commission’s decisions exacerbate the impact.
Wellington – Simply put: Wellington has one less MP. Population changes made this largely inevitable, but the Commission’s decisions exacerbate the impact.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Losers:
Wellington – Simply put: Wellington has one less MP. Population changes made this largely inevitable, but the Commission’s decisions exacerbate the impact.
Wellington – Simply put: Wellington has one less MP. Population changes made this largely inevitable, but the Commission’s decisions exacerbate the impact.
Wellington Greens (maybe) – The adjustment between Wellington North and Wellington Bays leaves the seats more evenly balanced in Green-voter terms.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Wellington Greens (maybe) – The adjustment between Wellington North and Wellington Bays leaves the seats more evenly balanced in Green-voter terms.
Chlöe Swarbrick – The Greens co-leader sees a fairly green seat get greener.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Chlöe Swarbrick – The Greens co-leader sees a fairly green seat get greener.
… and Chrises Luxon and Penk – Changes to Botany see the largest swing in the country and Kaipara ki Mahurangi sees decent National gains (not that either candidate needs it).
… and Jenny Salesa – On the other side, the safe Labour incumbent in Ōtāhuhu gets even safer.
… and Jenny Salesa – On the other side, the safe Labour incumbent in Ōtāhuhu gets even safer.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
… and Chrises Luxon and Penk – Changes to Botany see the largest swing in the country and Kaipara ki Mahurangi sees decent National gains (not that either candidate needs it).
… and Jenny Salesa – On the other side, the safe Labour incumbent in Ōtāhuhu gets even safer.
… and Jenny Salesa – On the other side, the safe Labour incumbent in Ōtāhuhu gets even safer.
Carlos Cheung and Cameron Brewer – Changes to Mt Roskill’s boundaries of make the seat more defendable for the surprise 2023 winner, while Upper Harbour (a shock 2020 Labour win) is now out of Labour’s reach for the foreseeable.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Carlos Cheung and Cameron Brewer – Changes to Mt Roskill’s boundaries of make the seat more defendable for the surprise 2023 winner, while Upper Harbour (a shock 2020 Labour win) is now out of Labour’s reach for the foreseeable.
West Auckland Labour – More efficient distribution of Labour voters will make winning all three seats (Glendene, Waitākere, and Henderson) easier.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
West Auckland Labour – More efficient distribution of Labour voters will make winning all three seats (Glendene, Waitākere, and Henderson) easier.
Winners:
Voters in Auckland – Final boundaries leave the Auckland region with 2/3rds of a seat more than its population entitles it to.
Voters in Auckland – Final boundaries leave the Auckland region with 2/3rds of a seat more than its population entitles it to.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Winners:
Voters in Auckland – Final boundaries leave the Auckland region with 2/3rds of a seat more than its population entitles it to.
Voters in Auckland – Final boundaries leave the Auckland region with 2/3rds of a seat more than its population entitles it to.
tl;dr version:
- On net Labour lose one seat based on 2023 numbers
- Labour loses the abolished seat in Wellington (Ōhāriu/Mana)
- National gains one seat from Labour (Wigram)
- Labour gains one seat from National (Waitākere)
- On net Labour lose one seat based on 2023 numbers
- Labour loses the abolished seat in Wellington (Ōhāriu/Mana)
- National gains one seat from Labour (Wigram)
- Labour gains one seat from National (Waitākere)
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
tl;dr version:
- On net Labour lose one seat based on 2023 numbers
- Labour loses the abolished seat in Wellington (Ōhāriu/Mana)
- National gains one seat from Labour (Wigram)
- Labour gains one seat from National (Waitākere)
- On net Labour lose one seat based on 2023 numbers
- Labour loses the abolished seat in Wellington (Ōhāriu/Mana)
- National gains one seat from Labour (Wigram)
- Labour gains one seat from National (Waitākere)
Shocking call but Andrew Little's going to be mayor.
Joining him should be:
🔴2-6 Labour councillors (med 5)
🟢2-5 Greens (3)
🟣0-4 Moderates (2)
🔵3-7 Conservatives (4)
🟡1-4 IT/ACT Locals (1)
Joining him should be:
🔴2-6 Labour councillors (med 5)
🟢2-5 Greens (3)
🟣0-4 Moderates (2)
🔵3-7 Conservatives (4)
🟡1-4 IT/ACT Locals (1)
October 9, 2025 at 7:18 PM
Shocking call but Andrew Little's going to be mayor.
Joining him should be:
🔴2-6 Labour councillors (med 5)
🟢2-5 Greens (3)
🟣0-4 Moderates (2)
🔵3-7 Conservatives (4)
🟡1-4 IT/ACT Locals (1)
Joining him should be:
🔴2-6 Labour councillors (med 5)
🟢2-5 Greens (3)
🟣0-4 Moderates (2)
🔵3-7 Conservatives (4)
🟡1-4 IT/ACT Locals (1)
Technical note: for councils with Māori wards, the general wards are general roll only, and the Māori wards are Māori roll. For councils without Māori wards the figures are all votes.
October 7, 2025 at 11:52 PM
Technical note: for councils with Māori wards, the general wards are general roll only, and the Māori wards are Māori roll. For councils without Māori wards the figures are all votes.
Not a 1:1 relationship with local govt voting given much lower turnout and fuzzier partisanship outside the main centres, but gives an overall vibe.
October 7, 2025 at 11:52 PM
Not a 1:1 relationship with local govt voting given much lower turnout and fuzzier partisanship outside the main centres, but gives an overall vibe.
This draws on the detailed (meshblock level) party vote estimates I'm using for the boundary adjustments work, but aggregated up to council ward level rather than new electorate level.
October 7, 2025 at 11:52 PM
This draws on the detailed (meshblock level) party vote estimates I'm using for the boundary adjustments work, but aggregated up to council ward level rather than new electorate level.
Note that Flat Bush was split off from the Botany local board subdivision, and subdivisions in Rodney were rearranged.
October 7, 2025 at 5:50 AM
Note that Flat Bush was split off from the Botany local board subdivision, and subdivisions in Rodney were rearranged.
Mixed back at a local board level, ranging from 29% in Warkworth to 14% in Flat Bush.
Waiheke (+7.5%) and Papatoetoe (+6%) most improved, with Manguawhau (-5.5%) and Kumeu (-6%) seeing the biggest falls
Waiheke (+7.5%) and Papatoetoe (+6%) most improved, with Manguawhau (-5.5%) and Kumeu (-6%) seeing the biggest falls
October 7, 2025 at 5:50 AM
Mixed back at a local board level, ranging from 29% in Warkworth to 14% in Flat Bush.
Waiheke (+7.5%) and Papatoetoe (+6%) most improved, with Manguawhau (-5.5%) and Kumeu (-6%) seeing the biggest falls
Waiheke (+7.5%) and Papatoetoe (+6%) most improved, with Manguawhau (-5.5%) and Kumeu (-6%) seeing the biggest falls