The Overhang
@overhang-aonz.bsky.social
Structured vibes. Aotearoa-New Zealand political takes, with an analytical bent.
Ashurst and Newlands – because of the high-level decisions the Commission made and the constraints it faced, both Ashurst and Newlands find themselves attached to electorates across geographic boundaries.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Ashurst and Newlands – because of the high-level decisions the Commission made and the constraints it faced, both Ashurst and Newlands find themselves attached to electorates across geographic boundaries.
The Greens’ chances of another Auckland seat – While the headline Labour/National contest in Mt Albert is unchanged from the 2023 nail-biter, the price the Greens pay for the boost in Auckland Central is Ricardo Menéndez March’s chances fading.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
The Greens’ chances of another Auckland seat – While the headline Labour/National contest in Mt Albert is unchanged from the 2023 nail-biter, the price the Greens pay for the boost in Auckland Central is Ricardo Menéndez March’s chances fading.
Tangi Utikere and whoever replaces Megan Woods – Palmerston North’s outward expansion into bluer exurbs makes re-election more challenging for Utikere, and the same phenomenon flipping Wigram could have contributed to Woods’ decision to go list-only.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Tangi Utikere and whoever replaces Megan Woods – Palmerston North’s outward expansion into bluer exurbs makes re-election more challenging for Utikere, and the same phenomenon flipping Wigram could have contributed to Woods’ decision to go list-only.
Technically also Judith Collins and Suze Redmayne – Both Papakura and Rangitīkei remain deeply blue, but unfavourable shifts still reduce their margins.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Technically also Judith Collins and Suze Redmayne – Both Papakura and Rangitīkei remain deeply blue, but unfavourable shifts still reduce their margins.
2023 National newcomers (Paulo Garcia, Greg Flemming, Rima Nakhle, Tim Costley) – Modestly unfavourable boundary shifts in Waitākere, Maungakiekie, Takanini, and Kapiti respectively will make defending 2023 flips harder.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
2023 National newcomers (Paulo Garcia, Greg Flemming, Rima Nakhle, Tim Costley) – Modestly unfavourable boundary shifts in Waitākere, Maungakiekie, Takanini, and Kapiti respectively will make defending 2023 flips harder.
Greg O’Connor – The seat lost in Wellington (Mana or Ōhāriu, depending how you slice it) is a straight -1 loss for Labour squeezing O’Connor out.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Greg O’Connor – The seat lost in Wellington (Mana or Ōhāriu, depending how you slice it) is a straight -1 loss for Labour squeezing O’Connor out.
Voters elsewhere in the North Island – The cost of under-packing Auckland is leaving the rest of island over-packed and underrepresented.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Voters elsewhere in the North Island – The cost of under-packing Auckland is leaving the rest of island over-packed and underrepresented.
Wellington Greens (maybe) – The adjustment between Wellington North and Wellington Bays leaves the seats more evenly balanced in Green-voter terms.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Wellington Greens (maybe) – The adjustment between Wellington North and Wellington Bays leaves the seats more evenly balanced in Green-voter terms.
Chlöe Swarbrick – The Greens co-leader sees a fairly green seat get greener.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Chlöe Swarbrick – The Greens co-leader sees a fairly green seat get greener.
… and Chrises Luxon and Penk – Changes to Botany see the largest swing in the country and Kaipara ki Mahurangi sees decent National gains (not that either candidate needs it).
… and Jenny Salesa – On the other side, the safe Labour incumbent in Ōtāhuhu gets even safer.
… and Jenny Salesa – On the other side, the safe Labour incumbent in Ōtāhuhu gets even safer.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
… and Chrises Luxon and Penk – Changes to Botany see the largest swing in the country and Kaipara ki Mahurangi sees decent National gains (not that either candidate needs it).
… and Jenny Salesa – On the other side, the safe Labour incumbent in Ōtāhuhu gets even safer.
… and Jenny Salesa – On the other side, the safe Labour incumbent in Ōtāhuhu gets even safer.
Carlos Cheung and Cameron Brewer – Changes to Mt Roskill’s boundaries of make the seat more defendable for the surprise 2023 winner, while Upper Harbour (a shock 2020 Labour win) is now out of Labour’s reach for the foreseeable.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Carlos Cheung and Cameron Brewer – Changes to Mt Roskill’s boundaries of make the seat more defendable for the surprise 2023 winner, while Upper Harbour (a shock 2020 Labour win) is now out of Labour’s reach for the foreseeable.
West Auckland Labour – More efficient distribution of Labour voters will make winning all three seats (Glendene, Waitākere, and Henderson) easier.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
West Auckland Labour – More efficient distribution of Labour voters will make winning all three seats (Glendene, Waitākere, and Henderson) easier.
Winners:
Voters in Auckland – Final boundaries leave the Auckland region with 2/3rds of a seat more than its population entitles it to.
Voters in Auckland – Final boundaries leave the Auckland region with 2/3rds of a seat more than its population entitles it to.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Winners:
Voters in Auckland – Final boundaries leave the Auckland region with 2/3rds of a seat more than its population entitles it to.
Voters in Auckland – Final boundaries leave the Auckland region with 2/3rds of a seat more than its population entitles it to.
tl;dr version:
- On net Labour lose one seat based on 2023 numbers
- Labour loses the abolished seat in Wellington (Ōhāriu/Mana)
- National gains one seat from Labour (Wigram)
- Labour gains one seat from National (Waitākere)
- On net Labour lose one seat based on 2023 numbers
- Labour loses the abolished seat in Wellington (Ōhāriu/Mana)
- National gains one seat from Labour (Wigram)
- Labour gains one seat from National (Waitākere)
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
tl;dr version:
- On net Labour lose one seat based on 2023 numbers
- Labour loses the abolished seat in Wellington (Ōhāriu/Mana)
- National gains one seat from Labour (Wigram)
- Labour gains one seat from National (Waitākere)
- On net Labour lose one seat based on 2023 numbers
- Labour loses the abolished seat in Wellington (Ōhāriu/Mana)
- National gains one seat from Labour (Wigram)
- Labour gains one seat from National (Waitākere)
Now out via the newsletter: the final exhaustive (and exhausting) analysis of the effects of the 2025 boundary review on electorate contests.
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Now out via the newsletter: the final exhaustive (and exhausting) analysis of the effects of the 2025 boundary review on electorate contests.
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
Mixed back at a local board level, ranging from 29% in Warkworth to 14% in Flat Bush.
Waiheke (+7.5%) and Papatoetoe (+6%) most improved, with Manguawhau (-5.5%) and Kumeu (-6%) seeing the biggest falls
Waiheke (+7.5%) and Papatoetoe (+6%) most improved, with Manguawhau (-5.5%) and Kumeu (-6%) seeing the biggest falls
October 7, 2025 at 5:50 AM
Mixed back at a local board level, ranging from 29% in Warkworth to 14% in Flat Bush.
Waiheke (+7.5%) and Papatoetoe (+6%) most improved, with Manguawhau (-5.5%) and Kumeu (-6%) seeing the biggest falls
Waiheke (+7.5%) and Papatoetoe (+6%) most improved, with Manguawhau (-5.5%) and Kumeu (-6%) seeing the biggest falls
Auckland City Council ballot returns, as of Tuesday 7th October. 18% back as of today.
Tracking lower than any previous year.
Tracking lower than any previous year.
October 7, 2025 at 5:50 AM
Auckland City Council ballot returns, as of Tuesday 7th October. 18% back as of today.
Tracking lower than any previous year.
Tracking lower than any previous year.
Pattern is fairly consistent across the wards, with all running significantly higher than 2022.
Wharangi/Onslow-Western both leading (with 25% back) and the most improved (+8% up).
Wharangi/Onslow-Western both leading (with 25% back) and the most improved (+8% up).
October 7, 2025 at 4:42 AM
Pattern is fairly consistent across the wards, with all running significantly higher than 2022.
Wharangi/Onslow-Western both leading (with 25% back) and the most improved (+8% up).
Wharangi/Onslow-Western both leading (with 25% back) and the most improved (+8% up).
Wellington City Council ballot returns, as of Monday 6th October. 21% back as of yesterday.
Highest turn out at this point since 2010. Whether that points to higher total turnout or is a factor of the early start period remains to be seen.
Highest turn out at this point since 2010. Whether that points to higher total turnout or is a factor of the early start period remains to be seen.
October 7, 2025 at 4:42 AM
Wellington City Council ballot returns, as of Monday 6th October. 21% back as of yesterday.
Highest turn out at this point since 2010. Whether that points to higher total turnout or is a factor of the early start period remains to be seen.
Highest turn out at this point since 2010. Whether that points to higher total turnout or is a factor of the early start period remains to be seen.
Bolger started with an even more commanding 13% landslide over hospital-pass recipient Mike Moore.
The crash was harsher too.
By this point, amid economic strife and in the aftermath of the Mother of All Budgets, National had shed a 24 points to be -11 down on Moore's Labour.
The crash was harsher too.
By this point, amid economic strife and in the aftermath of the Mother of All Budgets, National had shed a 24 points to be -11 down on Moore's Labour.
February 10, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Bolger started with an even more commanding 13% landslide over hospital-pass recipient Mike Moore.
The crash was harsher too.
By this point, amid economic strife and in the aftermath of the Mother of All Budgets, National had shed a 24 points to be -11 down on Moore's Labour.
The crash was harsher too.
By this point, amid economic strife and in the aftermath of the Mother of All Budgets, National had shed a 24 points to be -11 down on Moore's Labour.
Kirk started off well (finally defeating the fourth-term, Marshall-led, natural-party-of-government Second National Government) by 8%.
With repeated economic shocks, this had decayed to just 2% by the half way mark.
With repeated economic shocks, this had decayed to just 2% by the half way mark.
February 10, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Kirk started off well (finally defeating the fourth-term, Marshall-led, natural-party-of-government Second National Government) by 8%.
With repeated economic shocks, this had decayed to just 2% by the half way mark.
With repeated economic shocks, this had decayed to just 2% by the half way mark.
Isolating just first terms and the picture is a little more concerning.
Most new administrations tend to have an extended honeymoon, with support averaging ~6% at this point.
At 0.6% (on a raw basis not adjusting for house effects) is the second worst on record.
Most new administrations tend to have an extended honeymoon, with support averaging ~6% at this point.
At 0.6% (on a raw basis not adjusting for house effects) is the second worst on record.
February 10, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Isolating just first terms and the picture is a little more concerning.
Most new administrations tend to have an extended honeymoon, with support averaging ~6% at this point.
At 0.6% (on a raw basis not adjusting for house effects) is the second worst on record.
Most new administrations tend to have an extended honeymoon, with support averaging ~6% at this point.
At 0.6% (on a raw basis not adjusting for house effects) is the second worst on record.
Zooming in on just where we are now (16 months in) we can get a reasonable comparison.
Next to an all-terms average of 2%, the current government's narrow lead doesn't look especially bad.
But support for the government tends to decay over its lifespan.
Next to an all-terms average of 2%, the current government's narrow lead doesn't look especially bad.
But support for the government tends to decay over its lifespan.
February 10, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Zooming in on just where we are now (16 months in) we can get a reasonable comparison.
Next to an all-terms average of 2%, the current government's narrow lead doesn't look especially bad.
But support for the government tends to decay over its lifespan.
Next to an all-terms average of 2%, the current government's narrow lead doesn't look especially bad.
But support for the government tends to decay over its lifespan.
This is on the face of it... not great.
But how does it compare historically, and how did past governments in a similar position fare? We have public polling data going back to the end of the Holyoake years.
The polling path of each govt since then, along with their electoral fortunes are below.
But how does it compare historically, and how did past governments in a similar position fare? We have public polling data going back to the end of the Holyoake years.
The polling path of each govt since then, along with their electoral fortunes are below.
February 10, 2025 at 10:35 AM
This is on the face of it... not great.
But how does it compare historically, and how did past governments in a similar position fare? We have public polling data going back to the end of the Holyoake years.
The polling path of each govt since then, along with their electoral fortunes are below.
But how does it compare historically, and how did past governments in a similar position fare? We have public polling data going back to the end of the Holyoake years.
The polling path of each govt since then, along with their electoral fortunes are below.
In terms of how we got here, Luxon et al started with a respectable 11% margin (above the historic norm of 8% for new govts) and held that lead for about a year.
Then over the course of 2024 that began to slip and now hovers just above a dead heat.
Then over the course of 2024 that began to slip and now hovers just above a dead heat.
February 10, 2025 at 10:35 AM
In terms of how we got here, Luxon et al started with a respectable 11% margin (above the historic norm of 8% for new govts) and held that lead for about a year.
Then over the course of 2024 that began to slip and now hovers just above a dead heat.
Then over the course of 2024 that began to slip and now hovers just above a dead heat.