Pierre Lestru
@oddsinshadow.bsky.social
Sports and data nerd, I publish forecasting sports probabilities. Check them out at oddsinshadow.com oddsinshadow.substack.com
🏆 UEFA Conference League title odds after league round completion:
Crystal Palace — 50%
Strasbourg — 13%
Rayo Vallecano — 9%
Mainz 05 — 7%
Fiorentina — 5%
AEK Athens — 4%
Sparta Prague — 3%
Shakhtar — 2%
AZ Alkmaar — 2%
Raków — 2%
Crystal Palace — 50%
Strasbourg — 13%
Rayo Vallecano — 9%
Mainz 05 — 7%
Fiorentina — 5%
AEK Athens — 4%
Sparta Prague — 3%
Shakhtar — 2%
AZ Alkmaar — 2%
Raków — 2%
December 19, 2025 at 5:00 PM
🏆 UEFA Conference League title odds after league round completion:
Crystal Palace — 50%
Strasbourg — 13%
Rayo Vallecano — 9%
Mainz 05 — 7%
Fiorentina — 5%
AEK Athens — 4%
Sparta Prague — 3%
Shakhtar — 2%
AZ Alkmaar — 2%
Raków — 2%
Crystal Palace — 50%
Strasbourg — 13%
Rayo Vallecano — 9%
Mainz 05 — 7%
Fiorentina — 5%
AEK Athens — 4%
Sparta Prague — 3%
Shakhtar — 2%
AZ Alkmaar — 2%
Raków — 2%
🏆 Ligue 1 (France) title odds
Paris S-G — 93%
Lens — 4%
Marseille — 2%
Lille — 1%
Paris S-G — 93%
Lens — 4%
Marseille — 2%
Lille — 1%
December 16, 2025 at 4:00 PM
🏆 Ligue 1 (France) title odds
Paris S-G — 93%
Lens — 4%
Marseille — 2%
Lille — 1%
Paris S-G — 93%
Lens — 4%
Marseille — 2%
Lille — 1%
🏆 Serie A (Italy) title odds
Inter — 64%
Milan — 15%
Napoli — 13%
Roma — 6%
Juventus — 2%
Inter — 64%
Milan — 15%
Napoli — 13%
Roma — 6%
Juventus — 2%
December 16, 2025 at 3:30 PM
🏆 Serie A (Italy) title odds
Inter — 64%
Milan — 15%
Napoli — 13%
Roma — 6%
Juventus — 2%
Inter — 64%
Milan — 15%
Napoli — 13%
Roma — 6%
Juventus — 2%
🏆 La Liga (Spain) title odds
Barcelona — 70%
Real Madrid — 26%
Atlético Madrid — 2%
Villarreal — 1%
Barcelona — 70%
Real Madrid — 26%
Atlético Madrid — 2%
Villarreal — 1%
December 16, 2025 at 3:01 PM
🏆 La Liga (Spain) title odds
Barcelona — 70%
Real Madrid — 26%
Atlético Madrid — 2%
Villarreal — 1%
Barcelona — 70%
Real Madrid — 26%
Atlético Madrid — 2%
Villarreal — 1%
🏆 Premier League (England) title odds
Arsenal — 69%
Manchester City — 25%
Aston Villa — 4%
Liverpool — 1%
Arsenal — 69%
Manchester City — 25%
Aston Villa — 4%
Liverpool — 1%
December 16, 2025 at 2:30 PM
🏆 Premier League (England) title odds
Arsenal — 69%
Manchester City — 25%
Aston Villa — 4%
Liverpool — 1%
Arsenal — 69%
Manchester City — 25%
Aston Villa — 4%
Liverpool — 1%
📊 Champions League Title Race Movers
Up 📈:
Manchester City: 11% → 14%
Arsenal: 26% → 29%
Liverpool: 4% → 6%
Down 📉:
Real Madrid: 6% → 4%
Paris S-G: 13% → 11%
Inter: 6% → 4%
Bayern Munich: 18% → 17%
Up 📈:
Manchester City: 11% → 14%
Arsenal: 26% → 29%
Liverpool: 4% → 6%
Down 📉:
Real Madrid: 6% → 4%
Paris S-G: 13% → 11%
Inter: 6% → 4%
Bayern Munich: 18% → 17%
December 12, 2025 at 2:00 PM
📊 Champions League Title Race Movers
Up 📈:
Manchester City: 11% → 14%
Arsenal: 26% → 29%
Liverpool: 4% → 6%
Down 📉:
Real Madrid: 6% → 4%
Paris S-G: 13% → 11%
Inter: 6% → 4%
Bayern Munich: 18% → 17%
Up 📈:
Manchester City: 11% → 14%
Arsenal: 26% → 29%
Liverpool: 4% → 6%
Down 📉:
Real Madrid: 6% → 4%
Paris S-G: 13% → 11%
Inter: 6% → 4%
Bayern Munich: 18% → 17%
🏆 Ligue 1 (France) title odds
Paris S-G — 94%
Lens — 4%
Marseille — 1%
Lille — 1%
Paris S-G — 94%
Lens — 4%
Marseille — 1%
Lille — 1%
December 9, 2025 at 8:30 PM
🏆 Ligue 1 (France) title odds
Paris S-G — 94%
Lens — 4%
Marseille — 1%
Lille — 1%
Paris S-G — 94%
Lens — 4%
Marseille — 1%
Lille — 1%
🏆 Bundesliga (Germany) title odds
Bayern Munich — 99%
Dortmund — 1%
Others — <1%
Bayern Munich — 99%
Dortmund — 1%
Others — <1%
December 9, 2025 at 8:00 PM
🏆 Bundesliga (Germany) title odds
Bayern Munich — 99%
Dortmund — 1%
Others — <1%
Bayern Munich — 99%
Dortmund — 1%
Others — <1%
🏆 Serie A (Italy) title odds
Inter — 52%
Napoli — 25%
Milan — 19%
Roma — 3%
Juventus — 1%
Inter — 52%
Napoli — 25%
Milan — 19%
Roma — 3%
Juventus — 1%
December 9, 2025 at 7:30 PM
🏆 Serie A (Italy) title odds
Inter — 52%
Napoli — 25%
Milan — 19%
Roma — 3%
Juventus — 1%
Inter — 52%
Napoli — 25%
Milan — 19%
Roma — 3%
Juventus — 1%
🏆 La Liga (Spain) title odds
Barcelona — 69%
Real Madrid — 26%
Villarreal — 3%
Atlético Madrid — 2%
Barcelona — 69%
Real Madrid — 26%
Villarreal — 3%
Atlético Madrid — 2%
December 9, 2025 at 7:00 PM
🏆 La Liga (Spain) title odds
Barcelona — 69%
Real Madrid — 26%
Villarreal — 3%
Atlético Madrid — 2%
Barcelona — 69%
Real Madrid — 26%
Villarreal — 3%
Atlético Madrid — 2%
🏆 Premier League (England) title odds
Arsenal — 77%
Manchester City — 18%
Aston Villa — 4%
Liverpool — 1%
Chelsea — 1%
Arsenal — 77%
Manchester City — 18%
Aston Villa — 4%
Liverpool — 1%
Chelsea — 1%
December 9, 2025 at 6:30 PM
🏆 Premier League (England) title odds
Arsenal — 77%
Manchester City — 18%
Aston Villa — 4%
Liverpool — 1%
Chelsea — 1%
Arsenal — 77%
Manchester City — 18%
Aston Villa — 4%
Liverpool — 1%
Chelsea — 1%
🏆 La Liga (Spain) title odds
Real Madrid — 50%
Barcelona — 45%
Atlético Madrid — 4%
Villarreal — <2%
Real Madrid — 50%
Barcelona — 45%
Atlético Madrid — 4%
Villarreal — <2%
December 5, 2025 at 4:47 PM
🏆 La Liga (Spain) title odds
Real Madrid — 50%
Barcelona — 45%
Atlético Madrid — 4%
Villarreal — <2%
Real Madrid — 50%
Barcelona — 45%
Atlético Madrid — 4%
Villarreal — <2%
🏆 Premier League (England) title odds
Arsenal — 86%
Manchester City — 11%
Aston Villa — 1%
Chelsea — 1%
Liverpool — 1%
Arsenal — 86%
Manchester City — 11%
Aston Villa — 1%
Chelsea — 1%
Liverpool — 1%
December 5, 2025 at 4:46 PM
🏆 Premier League (England) title odds
Arsenal — 86%
Manchester City — 11%
Aston Villa — 1%
Chelsea — 1%
Liverpool — 1%
Arsenal — 86%
Manchester City — 11%
Aston Villa — 1%
Chelsea — 1%
Liverpool — 1%
🏆 Ligue 1 (France) title odds
Paris S-G — 92%
Marseille — 3%
Lens — 3%
Lille — 1%
Paris S-G — 92%
Marseille — 3%
Lens — 3%
Lille — 1%
December 2, 2025 at 3:00 PM
🏆 Ligue 1 (France) title odds
Paris S-G — 92%
Marseille — 3%
Lens — 3%
Lille — 1%
Paris S-G — 92%
Marseille — 3%
Lens — 3%
Lille — 1%
🏆 Bundesliga (Germany) title odds
Bayern Munich — 98%
Dortmund — 1%
Others — 1%
Bayern Munich — 98%
Dortmund — 1%
Others — 1%
December 2, 2025 at 2:30 PM
🏆 Bundesliga (Germany) title odds
Bayern Munich — 98%
Dortmund — 1%
Others — 1%
Bayern Munich — 98%
Dortmund — 1%
Others — 1%
🏆 Serie A (Italy) title odds
Inter — 49%
Napoli — 22%
Milan — 17%
Roma — 9%
Juventus — 1%
Inter — 49%
Napoli — 22%
Milan — 17%
Roma — 9%
Juventus — 1%
December 2, 2025 at 2:00 PM
🏆 Serie A (Italy) title odds
Inter — 49%
Napoli — 22%
Milan — 17%
Roma — 9%
Juventus — 1%
Inter — 49%
Napoli — 22%
Milan — 17%
Roma — 9%
Juventus — 1%
🏆 La Liga (Spain) title odds
Real Madrid — 48%
Barcelona — 40%
Atlético Madrid — 10%
Villarreal — 2%
Real Madrid — 48%
Barcelona — 40%
Atlético Madrid — 10%
Villarreal — 2%
December 2, 2025 at 1:30 PM
🏆 La Liga (Spain) title odds
Real Madrid — 48%
Barcelona — 40%
Atlético Madrid — 10%
Villarreal — 2%
Real Madrid — 48%
Barcelona — 40%
Atlético Madrid — 10%
Villarreal — 2%
🏆 Premier League (England) title odds
Arsenal — 85%
Manchester City — 10%
Chelsea — 2%
Liverpool — 2%
Aston Villa — 1%
Arsenal — 85%
Manchester City — 10%
Chelsea — 2%
Liverpool — 2%
Aston Villa — 1%
December 2, 2025 at 1:00 PM
🏆 Premier League (England) title odds
Arsenal — 85%
Manchester City — 10%
Chelsea — 2%
Liverpool — 2%
Aston Villa — 1%
Arsenal — 85%
Manchester City — 10%
Chelsea — 2%
Liverpool — 2%
Aston Villa — 1%
🏆 UEFA Champions League title odds after Matchday 5
Arsenal — 26%
Bayern Munich — 19%
Paris S-G — 12%
Manchester City — 9%
Real Madrid — 7%
Liverpool — 6%
Inter — 5%
Chelsea — 5%
Barcelona — 4%
Arsenal — 26%
Bayern Munich — 19%
Paris S-G — 12%
Manchester City — 9%
Real Madrid — 7%
Liverpool — 6%
Inter — 5%
Chelsea — 5%
Barcelona — 4%
November 28, 2025 at 2:15 PM
🏆 UEFA Champions League title odds after Matchday 5
Arsenal — 26%
Bayern Munich — 19%
Paris S-G — 12%
Manchester City — 9%
Real Madrid — 7%
Liverpool — 6%
Inter — 5%
Chelsea — 5%
Barcelona — 4%
Arsenal — 26%
Bayern Munich — 19%
Paris S-G — 12%
Manchester City — 9%
Real Madrid — 7%
Liverpool — 6%
Inter — 5%
Chelsea — 5%
Barcelona — 4%
🏆 Ligue 1 (France) title odds
Paris S-G — 96%
Marseille — 2%
Lens — 1%
Others — <1%
Paris S-G — 96%
Marseille — 2%
Lens — 1%
Others — <1%
November 25, 2025 at 3:00 PM
🏆 Ligue 1 (France) title odds
Paris S-G — 96%
Marseille — 2%
Lens — 1%
Others — <1%
Paris S-G — 96%
Marseille — 2%
Lens — 1%
Others — <1%
🏆 Bundesliga (Germany) title odds
Bayern Munich — 99%
Leverkusen — <1%
Dortmund — <1%
Bayern Munich — 99%
Leverkusen — <1%
Dortmund — <1%
November 25, 2025 at 2:30 PM
🏆 Bundesliga (Germany) title odds
Bayern Munich — 99%
Leverkusen — <1%
Dortmund — <1%
Bayern Munich — 99%
Leverkusen — <1%
Dortmund — <1%
🏆 Serie A (Italy) title odds
Inter — 53%
Roma — 17%
Napoli — 13%
Milan — 12%
Bologna — 3%
Inter — 53%
Roma — 17%
Napoli — 13%
Milan — 12%
Bologna — 3%
November 25, 2025 at 2:00 PM
🏆 Serie A (Italy) title odds
Inter — 53%
Roma — 17%
Napoli — 13%
Milan — 12%
Bologna — 3%
Inter — 53%
Roma — 17%
Napoli — 13%
Milan — 12%
Bologna — 3%
🏆 La Liga (Spain) title odds
Real Madrid — 55%
Barcelona — 37%
Atlético Madrid — 7%
Villarreal — 1%
Real Madrid — 55%
Barcelona — 37%
Atlético Madrid — 7%
Villarreal — 1%
November 25, 2025 at 1:31 PM
🏆 La Liga (Spain) title odds
Real Madrid — 55%
Barcelona — 37%
Atlético Madrid — 7%
Villarreal — 1%
Real Madrid — 55%
Barcelona — 37%
Atlético Madrid — 7%
Villarreal — 1%
🏆 Premier League (England) title odds
Arsenal — 84%
Manchester City — 11%
Liverpool — 2%
Chelsea — 2%
Aston Villa — 1%
Arsenal — 84%
Manchester City — 11%
Liverpool — 2%
Chelsea — 2%
Aston Villa — 1%
November 25, 2025 at 1:10 PM
🏆 Premier League (England) title odds
Arsenal — 84%
Manchester City — 11%
Liverpool — 2%
Chelsea — 2%
Aston Villa — 1%
Arsenal — 84%
Manchester City — 11%
Liverpool — 2%
Chelsea — 2%
Aston Villa — 1%
🏆 Ligue 1 (France) title odds
Paris S-G — 98%
Marseille — 1%
Lens — 1%
Others — <1%
Paris S-G — 98%
Marseille — 1%
Lens — 1%
Others — <1%
November 10, 2025 at 3:15 PM
🏆 Ligue 1 (France) title odds
Paris S-G — 98%
Marseille — 1%
Lens — 1%
Others — <1%
Paris S-G — 98%
Marseille — 1%
Lens — 1%
Others — <1%