Pierre Lestru
@oddsinshadow.bsky.social
Sports and data nerd, I publish forecasting sports probabilities. Check them out at oddsinshadow.com oddsinshadow.substack.com
Probabilities to advance before the final matchday ⏳
✔️ Sigma Olomouc (97%) → Qualified
✔️ Shkëndija 79 (94%) → Qualified
✖️ CS U Craiova (93%) → Out
✔️ Zrinjski Mostar (65%) → Qualified
✖️ Red Imps (44%) → Out
✔️ KuPS (5%) → Qualified
✖️ Breiðablik (2%) → Out
Amazing heroics from KuPS at Selhurst Park
✔️ Sigma Olomouc (97%) → Qualified
✔️ Shkëndija 79 (94%) → Qualified
✖️ CS U Craiova (93%) → Out
✔️ Zrinjski Mostar (65%) → Qualified
✖️ Red Imps (44%) → Out
✔️ KuPS (5%) → Qualified
✖️ Breiðablik (2%) → Out
Amazing heroics from KuPS at Selhurst Park
December 19, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Probabilities to advance before the final matchday ⏳
✔️ Sigma Olomouc (97%) → Qualified
✔️ Shkëndija 79 (94%) → Qualified
✖️ CS U Craiova (93%) → Out
✔️ Zrinjski Mostar (65%) → Qualified
✖️ Red Imps (44%) → Out
✔️ KuPS (5%) → Qualified
✖️ Breiðablik (2%) → Out
Amazing heroics from KuPS at Selhurst Park
✔️ Sigma Olomouc (97%) → Qualified
✔️ Shkëndija 79 (94%) → Qualified
✖️ CS U Craiova (93%) → Out
✔️ Zrinjski Mostar (65%) → Qualified
✖️ Red Imps (44%) → Out
✔️ KuPS (5%) → Qualified
✖️ Breiðablik (2%) → Out
Amazing heroics from KuPS at Selhurst Park
🏆 UEFA Conference League title odds after league round completion:
Crystal Palace — 50%
Strasbourg — 13%
Rayo Vallecano — 9%
Mainz 05 — 7%
Fiorentina — 5%
AEK Athens — 4%
Sparta Prague — 3%
Shakhtar — 2%
AZ Alkmaar — 2%
Raków — 2%
Crystal Palace — 50%
Strasbourg — 13%
Rayo Vallecano — 9%
Mainz 05 — 7%
Fiorentina — 5%
AEK Athens — 4%
Sparta Prague — 3%
Shakhtar — 2%
AZ Alkmaar — 2%
Raków — 2%
December 19, 2025 at 5:00 PM
🏆 UEFA Conference League title odds after league round completion:
Crystal Palace — 50%
Strasbourg — 13%
Rayo Vallecano — 9%
Mainz 05 — 7%
Fiorentina — 5%
AEK Athens — 4%
Sparta Prague — 3%
Shakhtar — 2%
AZ Alkmaar — 2%
Raków — 2%
Crystal Palace — 50%
Strasbourg — 13%
Rayo Vallecano — 9%
Mainz 05 — 7%
Fiorentina — 5%
AEK Athens — 4%
Sparta Prague — 3%
Shakhtar — 2%
AZ Alkmaar — 2%
Raków — 2%
📊 Europe's Big 5 Title Race Odds Movers
Up 📈:
Inter: 49% → 64%
Manchester City: 19% → 25%
Real Madrid: 24% → 26%
Roma: 4% → 6%
Down 📉:
Napoli: 24% → 13%
Arsenal: 76% → 69%
Milan: 21% → 15%
Up 📈:
Inter: 49% → 64%
Manchester City: 19% → 25%
Real Madrid: 24% → 26%
Roma: 4% → 6%
Down 📉:
Napoli: 24% → 13%
Arsenal: 76% → 69%
Milan: 21% → 15%
December 16, 2025 at 4:30 PM
📊 Europe's Big 5 Title Race Odds Movers
Up 📈:
Inter: 49% → 64%
Manchester City: 19% → 25%
Real Madrid: 24% → 26%
Roma: 4% → 6%
Down 📉:
Napoli: 24% → 13%
Arsenal: 76% → 69%
Milan: 21% → 15%
Up 📈:
Inter: 49% → 64%
Manchester City: 19% → 25%
Real Madrid: 24% → 26%
Roma: 4% → 6%
Down 📉:
Napoli: 24% → 13%
Arsenal: 76% → 69%
Milan: 21% → 15%
🏆 Ligue 1 (France) title odds
Paris S-G — 93%
Lens — 4%
Marseille — 2%
Lille — 1%
Paris S-G — 93%
Lens — 4%
Marseille — 2%
Lille — 1%
December 16, 2025 at 4:00 PM
🏆 Ligue 1 (France) title odds
Paris S-G — 93%
Lens — 4%
Marseille — 2%
Lille — 1%
Paris S-G — 93%
Lens — 4%
Marseille — 2%
Lille — 1%
🏆 Serie A (Italy) title odds
Inter — 64%
Milan — 15%
Napoli — 13%
Roma — 6%
Juventus — 2%
Inter — 64%
Milan — 15%
Napoli — 13%
Roma — 6%
Juventus — 2%
December 16, 2025 at 3:30 PM
🏆 Serie A (Italy) title odds
Inter — 64%
Milan — 15%
Napoli — 13%
Roma — 6%
Juventus — 2%
Inter — 64%
Milan — 15%
Napoli — 13%
Roma — 6%
Juventus — 2%
🏆 La Liga (Spain) title odds
Barcelona — 70%
Real Madrid — 26%
Atlético Madrid — 2%
Villarreal — 1%
Barcelona — 70%
Real Madrid — 26%
Atlético Madrid — 2%
Villarreal — 1%
December 16, 2025 at 3:01 PM
🏆 La Liga (Spain) title odds
Barcelona — 70%
Real Madrid — 26%
Atlético Madrid — 2%
Villarreal — 1%
Barcelona — 70%
Real Madrid — 26%
Atlético Madrid — 2%
Villarreal — 1%
🏆 Premier League (England) title odds
Arsenal — 69%
Manchester City — 25%
Aston Villa — 4%
Liverpool — 1%
Arsenal — 69%
Manchester City — 25%
Aston Villa — 4%
Liverpool — 1%
December 16, 2025 at 2:30 PM
🏆 Premier League (England) title odds
Arsenal — 69%
Manchester City — 25%
Aston Villa — 4%
Liverpool — 1%
Arsenal — 69%
Manchester City — 25%
Aston Villa — 4%
Liverpool — 1%
📊 Conference League Knockout Qualification Movers
Up 📈:
Shkëndija 79: 29% → 94%
Rijeka: 54% → 100%
FC Noah: 56% → 100%
Red Imps: 8% → 44%
AC Omonia: 78% → 100%
Down 📉:
Legia Warsaw: 71% → 0%
Slovan Bratislava: 42% → 0%
KuPS: 37% → 5%
Dynamo Kyiv: 31% → 0%
Shamrock Rovers: 20% → 0%
Up 📈:
Shkëndija 79: 29% → 94%
Rijeka: 54% → 100%
FC Noah: 56% → 100%
Red Imps: 8% → 44%
AC Omonia: 78% → 100%
Down 📉:
Legia Warsaw: 71% → 0%
Slovan Bratislava: 42% → 0%
KuPS: 37% → 5%
Dynamo Kyiv: 31% → 0%
Shamrock Rovers: 20% → 0%
December 12, 2025 at 4:00 PM
📊 Conference League Knockout Qualification Movers
Up 📈:
Shkëndija 79: 29% → 94%
Rijeka: 54% → 100%
FC Noah: 56% → 100%
Red Imps: 8% → 44%
AC Omonia: 78% → 100%
Down 📉:
Legia Warsaw: 71% → 0%
Slovan Bratislava: 42% → 0%
KuPS: 37% → 5%
Dynamo Kyiv: 31% → 0%
Shamrock Rovers: 20% → 0%
Up 📈:
Shkëndija 79: 29% → 94%
Rijeka: 54% → 100%
FC Noah: 56% → 100%
Red Imps: 8% → 44%
AC Omonia: 78% → 100%
Down 📉:
Legia Warsaw: 71% → 0%
Slovan Bratislava: 42% → 0%
KuPS: 37% → 5%
Dynamo Kyiv: 31% → 0%
Shamrock Rovers: 20% → 0%
📊 Europa League Knockout Qualification Movers
Up 📈:
Young Boys: 23% → 71%
Red Star: 79% → 100%
FCSB: 7% → 24%
Fenerbahçe: 92% → 100%
PAOK: 90% → 95%
Down 📉:
Feyenoord: 28% → 5%
Celtic: 75% → 57%
Sturm Graz: 24% → 6%
Dinamo Zagreb: 72% → 57%
Brann: 90% → 76%
Up 📈:
Young Boys: 23% → 71%
Red Star: 79% → 100%
FCSB: 7% → 24%
Fenerbahçe: 92% → 100%
PAOK: 90% → 95%
Down 📉:
Feyenoord: 28% → 5%
Celtic: 75% → 57%
Sturm Graz: 24% → 6%
Dinamo Zagreb: 72% → 57%
Brann: 90% → 76%
December 12, 2025 at 3:30 PM
📊 Europa League Knockout Qualification Movers
Up 📈:
Young Boys: 23% → 71%
Red Star: 79% → 100%
FCSB: 7% → 24%
Fenerbahçe: 92% → 100%
PAOK: 90% → 95%
Down 📉:
Feyenoord: 28% → 5%
Celtic: 75% → 57%
Sturm Graz: 24% → 6%
Dinamo Zagreb: 72% → 57%
Brann: 90% → 76%
Up 📈:
Young Boys: 23% → 71%
Red Star: 79% → 100%
FCSB: 7% → 24%
Fenerbahçe: 92% → 100%
PAOK: 90% → 95%
Down 📉:
Feyenoord: 28% → 5%
Celtic: 75% → 57%
Sturm Graz: 24% → 6%
Dinamo Zagreb: 72% → 57%
Brann: 90% → 76%
📊 Champions League Knockout Qualification Movers
Up 📈:
Monaco: 64% → 95%
Benfica: 22% → 51%
Marseille: 71% → 98%
FC Copenhagen: 4% → 29%
Juventus: 89% → 99%
Down 📉:
Qarabağ: 70% → 38%
Union SG: 51% → 21%
Club Brugge: 46% → 28%
Villarreal: 12% → 0%
Napoli: 88% → 76%
Up 📈:
Monaco: 64% → 95%
Benfica: 22% → 51%
Marseille: 71% → 98%
FC Copenhagen: 4% → 29%
Juventus: 89% → 99%
Down 📉:
Qarabağ: 70% → 38%
Union SG: 51% → 21%
Club Brugge: 46% → 28%
Villarreal: 12% → 0%
Napoli: 88% → 76%
December 12, 2025 at 3:01 PM
📊 Champions League Knockout Qualification Movers
Up 📈:
Monaco: 64% → 95%
Benfica: 22% → 51%
Marseille: 71% → 98%
FC Copenhagen: 4% → 29%
Juventus: 89% → 99%
Down 📉:
Qarabağ: 70% → 38%
Union SG: 51% → 21%
Club Brugge: 46% → 28%
Villarreal: 12% → 0%
Napoli: 88% → 76%
Up 📈:
Monaco: 64% → 95%
Benfica: 22% → 51%
Marseille: 71% → 98%
FC Copenhagen: 4% → 29%
Juventus: 89% → 99%
Down 📉:
Qarabağ: 70% → 38%
Union SG: 51% → 21%
Club Brugge: 46% → 28%
Villarreal: 12% → 0%
Napoli: 88% → 76%
📊 Champions League Top 8 Movers
Up 📈:
Liverpool: 30% → 66%
Atalanta: 29% → 61%
Atlético Madrid: 27% → 58%
Manchester City: 62% → 91%
Tottenham: 13% → 25%
Down 📉:
Chelsea: 57% → 27%
Inter: 70% → 40%
Dortmund: 52% → 23%
Real Madrid: 81% → 61%
Leverkusen: 11% → 2%
Up 📈:
Liverpool: 30% → 66%
Atalanta: 29% → 61%
Atlético Madrid: 27% → 58%
Manchester City: 62% → 91%
Tottenham: 13% → 25%
Down 📉:
Chelsea: 57% → 27%
Inter: 70% → 40%
Dortmund: 52% → 23%
Real Madrid: 81% → 61%
Leverkusen: 11% → 2%
December 12, 2025 at 2:30 PM
📊 Champions League Top 8 Movers
Up 📈:
Liverpool: 30% → 66%
Atalanta: 29% → 61%
Atlético Madrid: 27% → 58%
Manchester City: 62% → 91%
Tottenham: 13% → 25%
Down 📉:
Chelsea: 57% → 27%
Inter: 70% → 40%
Dortmund: 52% → 23%
Real Madrid: 81% → 61%
Leverkusen: 11% → 2%
Up 📈:
Liverpool: 30% → 66%
Atalanta: 29% → 61%
Atlético Madrid: 27% → 58%
Manchester City: 62% → 91%
Tottenham: 13% → 25%
Down 📉:
Chelsea: 57% → 27%
Inter: 70% → 40%
Dortmund: 52% → 23%
Real Madrid: 81% → 61%
Leverkusen: 11% → 2%
📊 Champions League Title Race Movers
Up 📈:
Manchester City: 11% → 14%
Arsenal: 26% → 29%
Liverpool: 4% → 6%
Down 📉:
Real Madrid: 6% → 4%
Paris S-G: 13% → 11%
Inter: 6% → 4%
Bayern Munich: 18% → 17%
Up 📈:
Manchester City: 11% → 14%
Arsenal: 26% → 29%
Liverpool: 4% → 6%
Down 📉:
Real Madrid: 6% → 4%
Paris S-G: 13% → 11%
Inter: 6% → 4%
Bayern Munich: 18% → 17%
December 12, 2025 at 2:00 PM
📊 Champions League Title Race Movers
Up 📈:
Manchester City: 11% → 14%
Arsenal: 26% → 29%
Liverpool: 4% → 6%
Down 📉:
Real Madrid: 6% → 4%
Paris S-G: 13% → 11%
Inter: 6% → 4%
Bayern Munich: 18% → 17%
Up 📈:
Manchester City: 11% → 14%
Arsenal: 26% → 29%
Liverpool: 4% → 6%
Down 📉:
Real Madrid: 6% → 4%
Paris S-G: 13% → 11%
Inter: 6% → 4%
Bayern Munich: 18% → 17%
📊 Europe's Big 5 Title Race Movers
Up 📈:
Barcelona: 45% → 69%
Manchester City: 11% → 18%
Napoli: 22% → 25%
Aston Villa: 1% → 4%
Milan: 17% → 19%
Inter: 50% → 52%
Down 📉:
Real Madrid: 50% → 26%
Arsenal: 86% → 77%
Roma: 8% → 3%
Atlético Madrid: 4% → 2%
Marseille: 3% → 1%
Up 📈:
Barcelona: 45% → 69%
Manchester City: 11% → 18%
Napoli: 22% → 25%
Aston Villa: 1% → 4%
Milan: 17% → 19%
Inter: 50% → 52%
Down 📉:
Real Madrid: 50% → 26%
Arsenal: 86% → 77%
Roma: 8% → 3%
Atlético Madrid: 4% → 2%
Marseille: 3% → 1%
December 9, 2025 at 9:00 PM
📊 Europe's Big 5 Title Race Movers
Up 📈:
Barcelona: 45% → 69%
Manchester City: 11% → 18%
Napoli: 22% → 25%
Aston Villa: 1% → 4%
Milan: 17% → 19%
Inter: 50% → 52%
Down 📉:
Real Madrid: 50% → 26%
Arsenal: 86% → 77%
Roma: 8% → 3%
Atlético Madrid: 4% → 2%
Marseille: 3% → 1%
Up 📈:
Barcelona: 45% → 69%
Manchester City: 11% → 18%
Napoli: 22% → 25%
Aston Villa: 1% → 4%
Milan: 17% → 19%
Inter: 50% → 52%
Down 📉:
Real Madrid: 50% → 26%
Arsenal: 86% → 77%
Roma: 8% → 3%
Atlético Madrid: 4% → 2%
Marseille: 3% → 1%
🏆 Ligue 1 (France) title odds
Paris S-G — 94%
Lens — 4%
Marseille — 1%
Lille — 1%
Paris S-G — 94%
Lens — 4%
Marseille — 1%
Lille — 1%
December 9, 2025 at 8:30 PM
🏆 Ligue 1 (France) title odds
Paris S-G — 94%
Lens — 4%
Marseille — 1%
Lille — 1%
Paris S-G — 94%
Lens — 4%
Marseille — 1%
Lille — 1%
🏆 Bundesliga (Germany) title odds
Bayern Munich — 99%
Dortmund — 1%
Others — <1%
Bayern Munich — 99%
Dortmund — 1%
Others — <1%
December 9, 2025 at 8:00 PM
🏆 Bundesliga (Germany) title odds
Bayern Munich — 99%
Dortmund — 1%
Others — <1%
Bayern Munich — 99%
Dortmund — 1%
Others — <1%
🏆 Serie A (Italy) title odds
Inter — 52%
Napoli — 25%
Milan — 19%
Roma — 3%
Juventus — 1%
Inter — 52%
Napoli — 25%
Milan — 19%
Roma — 3%
Juventus — 1%
December 9, 2025 at 7:30 PM
🏆 Serie A (Italy) title odds
Inter — 52%
Napoli — 25%
Milan — 19%
Roma — 3%
Juventus — 1%
Inter — 52%
Napoli — 25%
Milan — 19%
Roma — 3%
Juventus — 1%
🏆 La Liga (Spain) title odds
Barcelona — 69%
Real Madrid — 26%
Villarreal — 3%
Atlético Madrid — 2%
Barcelona — 69%
Real Madrid — 26%
Villarreal — 3%
Atlético Madrid — 2%
December 9, 2025 at 7:00 PM
🏆 La Liga (Spain) title odds
Barcelona — 69%
Real Madrid — 26%
Villarreal — 3%
Atlético Madrid — 2%
Barcelona — 69%
Real Madrid — 26%
Villarreal — 3%
Atlético Madrid — 2%
🏆 Premier League (England) title odds
Arsenal — 77%
Manchester City — 18%
Aston Villa — 4%
Liverpool — 1%
Chelsea — 1%
Arsenal — 77%
Manchester City — 18%
Aston Villa — 4%
Liverpool — 1%
Chelsea — 1%
December 9, 2025 at 6:30 PM
🏆 Premier League (England) title odds
Arsenal — 77%
Manchester City — 18%
Aston Villa — 4%
Liverpool — 1%
Chelsea — 1%
Arsenal — 77%
Manchester City — 18%
Aston Villa — 4%
Liverpool — 1%
Chelsea — 1%
Given everyone's now focused on the World Cup Draw, it's worth announcing we won't have any WC forecasts until qualifiers are done. We'll likely use eloratings.net, might not be cutting edge but decent enough for our purposes
December 5, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Given everyone's now focused on the World Cup Draw, it's worth announcing we won't have any WC forecasts until qualifiers are done. We'll likely use eloratings.net, might not be cutting edge but decent enough for our purposes
📊 Europe's Big 5 Title Race Movers
Up 📈:
Barcelona: 40% → 45%
Real Madrid: 48% → 50%
Manchester City: 10% → 11%
Arsenal: 85% → 86%
Down 📉:
Atlético Madrid: 10% → 4%
Chelsea: 2% → 1%
Up 📈:
Barcelona: 40% → 45%
Real Madrid: 48% → 50%
Manchester City: 10% → 11%
Arsenal: 85% → 86%
Down 📉:
Atlético Madrid: 10% → 4%
Chelsea: 2% → 1%
December 5, 2025 at 4:47 PM
📊 Europe's Big 5 Title Race Movers
Up 📈:
Barcelona: 40% → 45%
Real Madrid: 48% → 50%
Manchester City: 10% → 11%
Arsenal: 85% → 86%
Down 📉:
Atlético Madrid: 10% → 4%
Chelsea: 2% → 1%
Up 📈:
Barcelona: 40% → 45%
Real Madrid: 48% → 50%
Manchester City: 10% → 11%
Arsenal: 85% → 86%
Down 📉:
Atlético Madrid: 10% → 4%
Chelsea: 2% → 1%
🏆 La Liga (Spain) title odds
Real Madrid — 50%
Barcelona — 45%
Atlético Madrid — 4%
Villarreal — <2%
Real Madrid — 50%
Barcelona — 45%
Atlético Madrid — 4%
Villarreal — <2%
December 5, 2025 at 4:47 PM
🏆 La Liga (Spain) title odds
Real Madrid — 50%
Barcelona — 45%
Atlético Madrid — 4%
Villarreal — <2%
Real Madrid — 50%
Barcelona — 45%
Atlético Madrid — 4%
Villarreal — <2%
🏆 Premier League (England) title odds
Arsenal — 86%
Manchester City — 11%
Aston Villa — 1%
Chelsea — 1%
Liverpool — 1%
Arsenal — 86%
Manchester City — 11%
Aston Villa — 1%
Chelsea — 1%
Liverpool — 1%
December 5, 2025 at 4:46 PM
🏆 Premier League (England) title odds
Arsenal — 86%
Manchester City — 11%
Aston Villa — 1%
Chelsea — 1%
Liverpool — 1%
Arsenal — 86%
Manchester City — 11%
Aston Villa — 1%
Chelsea — 1%
Liverpool — 1%
📊 Europe's Big 5 Title Race Movers
Up 📈:
Napoli: 14% → 22%
Barcelona: 33% → 40%
Milan: 13% → 17%
Atlético Madrid: 8% → 10%
Lens: 1% → 3%
Manchester City: 8% → 10%
Villarreal: 1% → 2%
Down 📉:
Real Madrid: 58% → 48%
Roma: 17% → 9%
Paris S-G: 96% → 92%
Inter: 52% → 49%
Bologna: 3% → 1%
Up 📈:
Napoli: 14% → 22%
Barcelona: 33% → 40%
Milan: 13% → 17%
Atlético Madrid: 8% → 10%
Lens: 1% → 3%
Manchester City: 8% → 10%
Villarreal: 1% → 2%
Down 📉:
Real Madrid: 58% → 48%
Roma: 17% → 9%
Paris S-G: 96% → 92%
Inter: 52% → 49%
Bologna: 3% → 1%
December 2, 2025 at 3:30 PM
📊 Europe's Big 5 Title Race Movers
Up 📈:
Napoli: 14% → 22%
Barcelona: 33% → 40%
Milan: 13% → 17%
Atlético Madrid: 8% → 10%
Lens: 1% → 3%
Manchester City: 8% → 10%
Villarreal: 1% → 2%
Down 📉:
Real Madrid: 58% → 48%
Roma: 17% → 9%
Paris S-G: 96% → 92%
Inter: 52% → 49%
Bologna: 3% → 1%
Up 📈:
Napoli: 14% → 22%
Barcelona: 33% → 40%
Milan: 13% → 17%
Atlético Madrid: 8% → 10%
Lens: 1% → 3%
Manchester City: 8% → 10%
Villarreal: 1% → 2%
Down 📉:
Real Madrid: 58% → 48%
Roma: 17% → 9%
Paris S-G: 96% → 92%
Inter: 52% → 49%
Bologna: 3% → 1%
🏆 Ligue 1 (France) title odds
Paris S-G — 92%
Marseille — 3%
Lens — 3%
Lille — 1%
Paris S-G — 92%
Marseille — 3%
Lens — 3%
Lille — 1%
December 2, 2025 at 3:00 PM
🏆 Ligue 1 (France) title odds
Paris S-G — 92%
Marseille — 3%
Lens — 3%
Lille — 1%
Paris S-G — 92%
Marseille — 3%
Lens — 3%
Lille — 1%
🏆 Bundesliga (Germany) title odds
Bayern Munich — 98%
Dortmund — 1%
Others — 1%
Bayern Munich — 98%
Dortmund — 1%
Others — 1%
December 2, 2025 at 2:30 PM
🏆 Bundesliga (Germany) title odds
Bayern Munich — 98%
Dortmund — 1%
Others — 1%
Bayern Munich — 98%
Dortmund — 1%
Others — 1%