there's currently two lawsuits

tincher 0:25-cv-04669 "you violated the rights of these specific people on the street" (aclu/private counsel)

state of minnesota 0:26-cv-00190 "you are violating the sovereignty of the state and the entire metro surge operation is illegal" (state ag ellison)

5/5 ⭐ tro is dead. ice can resume stops of observers "safely following" them (behavior menendez explicitly ruled didn't create "reasonable suspicion"). the appeal will drag on, but the operation happens now. the law isn't the shield; it's the delay mechanism.

4/5 state ag called it a "federal invasion" with 3k agents—more than st. paul/mpls pd combined. the chaos is the kpi. dhs framed local pushback as "corrupt politicians" trying to "impede federal immigration enforcement"

3/5 wake the fuck up. this isn't random. the 8th circuit is the kill box for civil rights litigation. 10 republican appointees (4 appointed by trump), 1 democrat. it is arguably the most conservative bench in the country. doj venue-shopped this fight knowing exactly who would pick up the phone.

2/5 feds won by arguing menendez's restrictions on tear gas & arrests "harm[ed] officers' ability to protect themselves" in "very dangerous circumstances". panel bought it immediately, freezing the order that blocked agents from "retaliating against peaceful protesters"

1/5 8th circuit handed the feds a blank check. panel issued an "administrative stay" on judge menendez's tro, meaning "operation metro surge" is back to full unregulated force. no opinion. no reasoning. just the order. classic shadow docket play to nuke a lower court win.

6/ winning mtg's seat or at least massively overperforming is an absolute must for the 2026 midterms story

5/ if the dccc tries to make this about "saving democracy," we lose by 20 points. make it about the fact that ga-14 has had zero representation for 5 years because their rep was too busy kissing trump's behind. fix the roads, ignore the culture war, let the gop burn itself down

4/ the numbers are narrow but structurally possible: 1. harris gets ~35% in the "jungle primary" while the 17 gop candidates split the remaining 65%. 2. harris faces a radical maga candidate (like moore) in the runoff. 3. low turnout + gop exhaustion = miracle flip.

3/ shawn harris is a retired brigadier general. he is literally the perfect foil to the maga circus. the strategy must be "law and order vs. chaos," not "democrat vs. republican." do not run a national platform. run on "make congress boring again"

2/ the field is a clown car. 17 republicans, 3 dems, and a libertarian. the gop vote is going to fracture into a million pieces. the goal for democrats isn't winning outright in march (impossible). it's consolidating the 30% dem base to ensure shawn harris makes the april 7 runoff

1/ the special election for ga-14 is in 47 days (march 10) and the discourse is already poisoned. dems are acting like mtg is a resistance hero because she quit over the epstein files. stop it. do not retcon the jewish space laser lady into a martyr. she is just a rat leaving a ship she helped sink

7/ the aclu needs to sue. they have institutional standing. this is doing irreparable damage to the entire legal system which is their entire business

6/ so now we wait. the doj says maybe late jan for the next batch? [cbs]. don’t hold your breath. without a special master to force their hand, they will redact this into oblivion. transparency is dead, long live executive privilege.

5/ the absolute irony of the "law and order" administration fighting tooth and nail to keep sex trafficking evidence redacted "for privacy". if you believe this is about protecting victims and not protecting political donors, i have a bridge in brooklyn to sell you.

4/ let’s be real about what’s being hidden. we aren’t looking for flight logs anymore. we are looking for the 2007 florida prosecution memos and the fbi 302 interview notes [khanna press release]. that’s the smoking gun on who cut the non-prosecution deal. that’s what they are burying.

3/ ag bondi arguing that congressmen khanna and massie lack standing to enforce their own statute is peak administrative rot [reuters]. the executive branch is openly defying a legislative mandate, and the judiciary is washing its hands of it. checks and balances are just a vibe now apparently.

2/ the doj’s excuse is... they suddenly "found" 5.2 million pages of documents to review and claim they need 400 lawyers to do it [pbs]. this is standard discovery abuse: flood the zone with paper to justify an indefinite delay.

1/ judge denied the motion for a special master in the epstein files, "standing" kills accountability. congress passed a literal law mandating release, doj ignored the deadline, and the court says lawmakers can't intervene. our legal system is broken.